Research on the influence of behavioral forces that motivate trader behavior and sentiment: A prospect theory exegesis

This study focuses on empirical investigations and seeks implications by utilizing three different methodologies to test various aspects of trader behavior. The first methodology utilizes Prospect Theory to determine trader behavior during periods of extreme wealth contracting periods. Secondly, a threshold model to examine the sentiment variable is formulated and thirdly a study is made of the contagion effect and trader behavior. ^ The connection between consumers' sense of financial well-being or sentiment and stock market performance has been studied at length. However, without data on actual versus experimental performance, implications based on this relationship are meaningless. The empirical agenda included examining a proprietary file of daily trader activities over a five-year period. Overall, during periods of extreme wealth altering conditions, traders "satisfice" rather than choose the "best" alternative. A trader's degree of loss aversion depends on his/her prior investment performance. A model that explains the behavior of traders during periods of turmoil is developed. Prospect Theory and the data file influenced the design of the model. ^ Additional research included testing a model that permitted the data to signal the crisis through a threshold model. The third empirical study sought to investigate the existence of contagion caused by declining global wealth effects using evidence from the mining industry in Canada. Contagion, where a financial crisis begins locally and subsequently spreads elsewhere, has been studied in terms of correlations among similar regions. The results provide support for Prospect Theory in two out of the three empirical studies. ^ The dissertation emphasizes the need for specifying precise, testable models of investors' expectations by providing tools to identify paradoxical behavior patterns. True enhancements in this field must include empirical research utilizing reliable data sources to mitigate data mining problems and allow researchers to distinguish between expectations-based and risk-based explanations of behavior. Through this type of research, it may be possible to systematically exploit "irrational" market behavior. ^

Research on the influence of behavioral forces that motivate trader behavior and sentiment- a prospect theory exegesis

This study focuses on empirical investigations and seeks implications by utilizing three different methodologies to test various aspects of trader behavior. The first methodology utilizes Prospect Theory to determine trader behavior during periods of extreme wealth contracting periods. Secondly, a threshold model to examine the sentiment variable is formulated and thirdly a study is made of the contagion effect and trader behavior. The connection between consumers' sense of financial well-being or sentiment and stock market performance has been studied at length. However, without data on actual versus experimental performance, implications based on this relationship are meaningless. The empirical agenda included examining a proprietary file of daily trader activities over a five-year period. Overall, during periods of extreme wealth altering conditions, traders "satisfice" rather than choose the "best" alternative. A trader's degree of loss aversion depends on his/her prior investment performance. A model that explains the behavior of traders during periods of turmoil is developed. Prospect Theory and the data file influenced the design of the model. Additional research included testing a model that permitted the data to signal the crisis through a threshold model. The third empirical study sought to investigate the existence of contagion caused by declining global wealth effects using evidence from the mining industry in Canada. Contagion, where a financial crisis begins locally and subsequently spreads elsewhere, has been studied in terms of correlations among similar regions. The results provide support for Prospect Theory in two out of the three empirical studies. The dissertation emphasizes the need for specifying precise, testable models of investors' expectations by providing tools to identify paradoxical behavior patterns. True enhancements in this field must include empirical research utilizing reliable data sources to mitigate data mining problems and allow researchers to distinguish between expectations-based and risk-based explanations of behavior. Through this type of research, it may be possible to systematically exploit "irrational" market behavior.

Utilização de pulsos de radiofrequência fortemente modulados no processamento de informação quântica via ressonância magnética nuclear

Nesta dissertação apresentamos um trabalho de desenvolvimento e utilização de pulsos de radiofreqüência modulados simultaneamente em freqüência, amplitude e fase (pulsos fortemente modulados, SMP, do inglês Strongly Modulated Pulses) para criar estados iniciais e executar operações unitárias que servem como blocos básicos para processamento da informação quântica utilizando Ressonância Magnética Nuclear (RMN). As implementações experimentais foram realizas em um sistema de 3 q-bits constituído por spins nucleares de Césio 133 (spin nuclear 7/2) em uma amostra de cristal líquido em fase nemática. Os pulsos SMP´s foram construídos teoricamente utilizando um programa especialmente desenvolvido para esse fim, sendo o mesmo baseado no processo de otimização numérica Simplex Nelder-Mead. Através deste programa, os pulsos SMP foram otimizados de modo a executarem as operações lógicas desejadas com durações consideravelmente menores que aquelas realizadas usando o procedimento usual de RMN, ou seja, seqüências de pulsos e evoluções livres. Isso tem a vantagem de reduzir os efeitos de descoerência decorrentes da relaxação do sistema. Os conceitos teóricos envolvidos na criação dos SMPs são apresentados e as principais dificuldades (experimentais e teóricas) que podem surgir devido ao uso desses procedimentos são discutidas. Como exemplos de aplicação, foram produzidos os estados pseudo-puros usados como estados iniciais de operações lógicas em RMN, bem como operações lógicas que foram posteriormente aplicadas aos mesmos. Utilizando os SMP\'s também foi possível realizar experimentalmente os algoritmos quânticos de Grover e Deutsch-Jozsa para 3 q-bits. A fidelidade das implementações experimentais foi determinadas utilizando as matrizes densidade experimentais obtidas utilizando um método de tomografia da matriz densidade previamente desenvolvido.

Requirement Risk Level Forecast Using Bayesian Networks Classifiers

Requirement engineering is a key issue in the development of a software project. Like any other development activity it is not without risks. This work is about the empirical study of risks of requirements by applying machine learning techniques, specifically Bayesian networks classifiers. We have defined several models to predict the risk level for a given requirement using three dataset that collect metrics taken from the requirement specifications of different projects. The classification accuracy of the Bayesian models obtained is evaluated and compared using several classification performance measures. The results of the experiments show that the Bayesians networks allow obtaining valid predictors. Specifically, a tree augmented network structure shows a competitive experimental performance in all datasets. Besides, the relations established between the variables collected to determine the level of risk in a requirement, match with those set by requirement engineers. We show that Bayesian networks are valid tools for the automation of risks assessment in requirement engineering.

An experimental and computational investigation of performance of Green Gully for reusing stormwater

A new stormwater quality improvement device (SQID) called ‘Green Gully’ has been designed and developed in this study with an aim to re-using stormwater for irrigating plants and trees. The main purpose of the Green Gully is to collect road runoff/stormwater, make it suitable for irrigation and provide an automated network system for watering roadside plants and irrigational areas. This paper presents the design and development of Green Gully along with experimental and computational investigations of the performance of Green Gully. Performance (in the form of efficiency, i.e. the percentage of water flow through the gully grate) was experimentally determined using a gully model in the laboratory first, then a three dimensional numerical model was developed and simulated to predict the efficiency of Green Gully as a function of flow rate. Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) code FLUENT was used for the simulation. GAMBIT was used for geometry creation and mesh generation. Experimental and simulation results are discussed and compared in this paper. The predicted efficiency was compared with the laboratory measured efficiency. It was found that the simulated results are in good agreement with the experimental results.

Experimental studies of wireless communication and GNSS kinematic positioning performance in high-mobility vehicle environments

In order to support intelligent transportation system (ITS) road safety applications such as collision avoidance, lane departure warnings and lane keeping, Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) based vehicle positioning system has to provide lane-level (0.5 to 1 m) or even in-lane-level (0.1 to 0.3 m) accurate and reliable positioning information to vehicle users. However, current vehicle navigation systems equipped with a single frequency GPS receiver can only provide road-level accuracy at 5-10 meters. The positioning accuracy can be improved to sub-meter or higher with the augmented GNSS techniques such as Real Time Kinematic (RTK) and Precise Point Positioning (PPP) which have been traditionally used in land surveying and or in slowly moving environment. In these techniques, GNSS corrections data generated from a local or regional or global network of GNSS ground stations are broadcast to the users via various communication data links, mostly 3G cellular networks and communication satellites. This research aimed to investigate the precise positioning system performances when operating in the high mobility environments. This involves evaluation of the performances of both RTK and PPP techniques using: i) the state-of-art dual frequency GPS receiver; and ii) low-cost single frequency GNSS receiver. Additionally, this research evaluates the effectiveness of several operational strategies in reducing the load on data communication networks due to correction data transmission, which may be problematic for the future wide-area ITS services deployment. These strategies include the use of different data transmission protocols, different correction data format standards, and correction data transmission at the less-frequent interval. A series of field experiments were designed and conducted for each research task. Firstly, the performances of RTK and PPP techniques were evaluated in both static and kinematic (highway with speed exceed 80km) experiments. RTK solutions achieved the RMS precision of 0.09 to 0.2 meter accuracy in static and 0.2 to 0.3 meter in kinematic tests, while PPP reported 0.5 to 1.5 meters in static and 1 to 1.8 meter in kinematic tests by using the RTKlib software. These RMS precision values could be further improved if the better RTK and PPP algorithms are adopted. The tests results also showed that RTK may be more suitable in the lane-level accuracy vehicle positioning. The professional grade (dual frequency) and mass-market grade (single frequency) GNSS receivers were tested for their performance using RTK in static and kinematic modes. The analysis has shown that mass-market grade receivers provide the good solution continuity, although the overall positioning accuracy is worse than the professional grade receivers. In an attempt to reduce the load on data communication network, we firstly evaluate the use of different correction data format standards, namely RTCM version 2.x and RTCM version 3.0 format. A 24 hours transmission test was conducted to compare the network throughput. The results have shown that 66% of network throughput reduction can be achieved by using the newer RTCM version 3.0, comparing to the older RTCM version 2.x format. Secondly, experiments were conducted to examine the use of two data transmission protocols, TCP and UDP, for correction data transmission through the Telstra 3G cellular network. The performance of each transmission method was analysed in terms of packet transmission latency, packet dropout, packet throughput, packet retransmission rate etc. The overall network throughput and latency of UDP data transmission are 76.5% and 83.6% of TCP data transmission, while the overall accuracy of positioning solutions remains in the same level. Additionally, due to the nature of UDP transmission, it is also found that 0.17% of UDP packets were lost during the kinematic tests, but this loss doesn't lead to significant reduction of the quality of positioning results. The experimental results from the static and the kinematic field tests have also shown that the mobile network communication may be blocked for a couple of seconds, but the positioning solutions can be kept at the required accuracy level by setting of the Age of Differential. Finally, we investigate the effects of using less-frequent correction data (transmitted at 1, 5, 10, 15, 20, 30 and 60 seconds interval) on the precise positioning system. As the time interval increasing, the percentage of ambiguity fixed solutions gradually decreases, while the positioning error increases from 0.1 to 0.5 meter. The results showed the position accuracy could still be kept at the in-lane-level (0.1 to 0.3 m) when using up to 20 seconds interval correction data transmission.

Experimental evaluation of the culture performance of three exotic and a ‘local’ Giant Freshwater Prawn (Macrobrachium rosenbergii, De Man 1879) culture strain in Fiji

Giant freshwater prawn (GFP; Macrobrachium rosenbergii) aquaculture has expanded rapidly since 1990. Most local culture industries, however, have developed in an unsystematic way. Fiji has a small culture industry producing the ‘Anuenue’ strain; however, performance of this strain has never been systematically evaluated. Recently, some Fijian farmers have reported declines in stock productivity. The current project evaluated the relative performance of three exotic strains with different genetic backgrounds from Malaysia, Indonesia and Vietnam, against the ‘local’ strain in Fiji in a 4 × 3 replicated pond trial experiment. A total of 5827 prawns were harvested after 143 days growout. Individual growth rate and relative survival of the Fiji strain were not statistically different from any of the introduced strains, but Vietnam strain was superior to that of the Malaysia strain. Genetic diversity showed significant differences in variability among strains, with the Malaysian strain displaying the lowest genetic diversity. Indonesia strain showed that females were reaching maturation earlier than other strains and were smaller in size. This study suggests that Malaysian and Indonesian strains would constitute a poor choice for Fiji, whereas the Vietnam strain consistently performed well on all criteria measured. High variation among replicate ponds within strains unfortunately confounded among-strain variation.

Experimental study on the fire performance of superior LSF wall systems

Load bearing Light Gauge Steel Frame (LSF) walls are commonly made of conventional lipped channel sections and gypsum plasterboards. Recently, innovative steel sections such as hollow flange channel sections have been proposed as studs in LSF wall frames with a view to improve their fire resistance ratings. A series of full scale fire tests was then undertaken to investigate the fire performance of the new LSF wall systems under standard fire conditions. Test wall frames made of hollow flange section studs were lined with fire resistant gypsum plasterboards on both sides, and were subjected to increasing temperatures as given by the standard fire curve on one side. Both uninsulated and cavity insulated walls were tested with varying load ratios from 0.2 to 0.6. This paper presents the details of this experimental study on the fire performance of LSF walls and the results. Test results showed that the walls made of the new hollow flange channel section studs have a superior fire performance in comparison to that of lipped channel section stud walls. They also showed that the fire performance of cavity insulated walls was inferior to that of uninsulated walls. The reasons for this fire behaviour are described in this paper.

Experimental study on creep and shrinkage of high-performance ultra-lightweight cement composite of 60 MPa

Creep and shrinkage behaviour of an ultra lightweight cement composite (ULCC) up to 450 days was evaluated in comparison with those of a normal weight aggregate concrete (NWAC) and a lightweight aggregate concrete (LWAC) with similar 28-day compressive strength. The ULCC is characterized by low density < 1500 kg/m3 and high compressive strength about 60 MPa. Autogenous shrinkage increased rapidly in the ULCC at early-age and almost 95% occurred prior to the start of creep test at 28 days. Hence, majority of shrinkage of the ULCC during creep test was drying shrinkage. Total shrinkage of the ULCC during the 450-day creep test was the lowest compared to the NWAC and LWAC. However, corresponding total creep in the ULCC was the highest with high proportion attributed to basic creep (≥ ~90%) and limited drying creep. The high creep of the ULCC is likely due to its low elastic modulus. Specific creep of the ULCC was similar to that of the NWAC, but more than 80% higher than the LWAC. Creep coefficient of the ULCC was about 47% lower than that of the NWAC but about 18% higher than that of the LWAC. Among five creep models evaluated which tend to over-estimate the creep coefficient of the ULCC, EC2 model gives acceptable prediction within +25% deviations. The EC2 model may be used as a first approximate for the creep of ULCC in the designs of steel-concrete composites or sandwich structures in the absence of other relevant creep data.

Experimental assessment of the effects of sublethal salinities on growth performance and stress in cultured tra catfish (Pangasianodon hypophthalmus)

The effects of a range of different sublethal salinities were assessed on physiological processes and growth performance in the freshwater ‘tra’ catfish (Pangasianodon hypophthalmus) juveniles over an 8-week experiment. Fish were distributed randomly among 6 salinity treatments [2, 6, 10, 14 and 18 g/L of salinity and a control (0 g/L)] with a subsequent 13-day period of acclimation. Low salinity conditions from 2 to 10 g/L provided optimal conditions with high survival and good growth performance, while 0 g/L and salinities[14 g/L gave poorer survival rates (p\0.05). Salinity levels from freshwater to 10 g/L did not have any negative effects on fish weight gain, daily weight gain, or specific growth rate. Food conversion ratio, however, was lowest in the control treatment (p\0.05) and highest at the maximum salinities tested (18 g/L treatment). Cortisol levels were elevated in the 14 and 18 g/L treatments after 6 h and reached a peak after 24-h exposure, and this also led to increases in plasma glucose concentration. After 14 days, surviving fish in all treatments appeared to have acclimated to their respective conditions with cortisol levels remaining under 5 ng/ mL with glucose concentrations stable. Tra catfish do not appear to be efficient osmoregulators when salinity levels exceed 10 g/L, and at raised salinity levels, growth performance is compromised. In general, results of this study confirm that providing culture environments in the Mekong River Basin do not exceed 10 g/L salinity and that cultured tra catfish can continue to perform well.

Automated power semiconductor switching performance feature extraction from experimental double-pulse waveform data

Double-pulse tests are commonly used as a method for assessing the switching performance of power semiconductor switches in a clamped inductive switching application. Data generated from these tests are typically in the form of sampled waveform data captured using an oscilloscope. In cases where it is of interest to explore a multi-dimensional parameter space and corresponding result space it is necessary to reduce the data into key performance metrics via feature extraction. This paper presents techniques for the extraction of switching performance metrics from sampled double-pulse waveform data. The reported techniques are applied to experimental data from characterisation of a cascode gate drive circuit applied to power MOSFETs.

Experimental evaluation of the performance of 2×2 MIMO-OFDM for vehicle-to-infrastructure communications

In this paper, a novel 2×2 multiple-input multiple-output orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (MIMO-OFDM) testbed based on an Analog Devices AD9361 highly integrated radio frequency (RF) agile transceiver was specifically implemented for the purpose of estimating and analyzing MIMO-OFDM channel capacity in vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) environments using the 920 MHz industrial, scientific, and medical (ISM) band. We implemented two-dimensional discrete cosine transform-based filtering to reduce the channel estimation errors and show its effectiveness on our measurement results. We have also analyzed the effects of channel estimation error on the MIMO channel capacity by simulation. Three different scenarios of subcarrier spacing were investigated which correspond to IEEE 802.11p, Long-Term Evolution (LTE), and Digital Video Broadcasting Terrestrial (DVB-T)(2k) standards. An extensive MIMO-OFDM V2I channel measurement campaign was performed in a suburban environment. Analysis of the measured MIMO channel capacity results as a function of the transmitter-to-receiver (TX-RX) separation distance up to 250 m shows that the variance of the MIMO channel capacity is larger for the near-range line-of-sight (LOS) scenarios than for the long-range non-LOS cases, using a fixed receiver signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) criterion. We observed that the largest capacity values were achieved at LOS propagation despite the common assumption of a degenerated MIMO channel in LOS. We consider that this is due to the large angular spacing between MIMO subchannels which occurs when the receiver vehicle rooftop antennas pass by the fixed transmitter antennas at close range, causing MIMO subchannels to be orthogonal. In addition, analysis on the effects of different subcarrier spacings on MIMO-OFDM channel capacity showed negligible differences in mean channel capacity for the subcarrier spacing range investigated. Measured channels described in this paper are available on request.

Experimental studies on the performance of rail joints with modified wheel/railhead contact

Rail joints are provided with a gap to account for thermal movement and to maintain electrical insulation for the control of signals and/or broken rail detection circuits. The gap in the rail joint is regarded as a source of significant problems for the rail industry since it leads to a very short rail service life compared with other track components due to the various, and difficult to predict, failure modes – thus increasing the risk for train operations. Many attempts to improve the life of rail joints have led to a large number of patents around the world; notable attempts include strengthening through larger-sized joint bars, an increased number of bolts and the use of high yield materials. Unfortunately, no design to date has shown the ability to prolong the life of the rail joints to values close to those for continuously welded rail (CWR). This paper reports the results of a fundamental study that has revealed that the wheel contact at the free edge of the railhead is a major problem since it generates a singularity in the contact pressure and railhead stresses. A design was therefore developed using an optimisation framework that prevents wheel contact at the railhead edge. Finite element modelling of the design has shown that the contact pressure and railhead stress singularities are eliminated, thus increasing the potential to work as effectively as a CWR that does not have a geometric gap. An experimental validation of the finite element results is presented through an innovative non-contact measurement of strains. Some practical issues related to grinding rails to the optimal design are also discussed.