Development of a weather-based model for Botrytis leaf blight of onion

ABSTRACT In the present study, onion plants were tested under controlled conditions for the development of a climate model based on the influence of temperature (10, 15, 20 and 25°C) and leaf wetness duration (6, 12, 24 and 48 hours) on the severity of Botrytis leaf blight of onion caused by Botrytis squamosa. The relative lesion density was influenced by temperature and leaf wetness duration (P <0.05). The disease was most severe at 20°C. Data were subjected to nonlinear regression analysis. Beta generalized function was used to adjust severity and temperature data, while a logistic function was chosen to represent the effect of leaf wetness on the severity of Botrytis leaf blight. The response surface obtained by the product of two functions was expressed as ES = 0.008192 * (((x-5)1.01089) * ((30-x)1.19052)) * (0.33859/(1+3.77989 * exp (-0.10923*y))), where ES represents the estimated severity value (0.1); x, the temperature (°C); and y, the leaf wetness (in hours). This climate model should be validated under field conditions to verify its use as a computational system for the forecasting of Botrytis leaf blight in onion.

Distributed document migration between ERP systems by means of messaging and event sourcing

This bachelor’s thesis, written for Lappeenranta University of Technology and implemented in a medium-sized enterprise (SME), examines a distributed document migration system. The system was created to migrate a large number of electronic documents, along with their metadata, from one document management system to another, so as to enable a rapid switchover of an enterprise resource planning systems inside the company. The paper examines, through theoretical analysis, messaging as a possible enabler of distributing applications and how it naturally fits an event based model, whereby system transitions and states are expressed through recorded behaviours. This is put into practice by analysing the implemented migration systems and how the core components, MassTransit, RabbitMQ and MongoDB, were orchestrated together to realize such a system. As a result, the paper presents an architecture for a scalable and distributed system that could migrate hundreds of thousands of documents over weekend, serving its goals in enabling a rapid system switchover.

Testing Accrual-Based Model for Detecting Earnings Management: Comparison of Finland and France

The aim of this study is to test the accrual-based model suggested by Dechow et al. (1995) in order to detect and compare earnings management practices in Finnish and French companies. Also the impact of financial crisis of 2008 on earnings management behavior in these countries is tested by dividing the whole time period of 2003-2012 into two sub-periods: pre-crisis (2003-2008) and post-crisis (2009-2012). Results support the idea that companies in both countries have significant earnings management practices. During the post-crisis period companies in Finland show income inflating practices, while in France the opposite tendency is noticed (income deflating) during the same period. Results of the assumption that managers in highly concentrated companies are engaged in income enhancing practices vary in two countries. While in Finland managers are trying to show better performance for bonuses or other contractual compensation motivations, in France they avoid paying dividends or high taxes.

Implementation of Quantitative Reaction-based Model Refinement

Building a computational model for complex biological systems is an iterative process. It starts from an abstraction of the process and then incorporates more details regarding the specific biochemical reactions which results in the change of the model fit. Meanwhile, the model’s numerical properties such as its numerical fit and validation should be preserved. However, refitting the model after each refinement iteration is computationally expensive resource-wise. There is an alternative approach which ensures the model fit preservation without the need to refit the model after each refinement iteration. And this approach is known as quantitative model refinement. The aim of this thesis is to develop and implement a tool called ModelRef which does the quantitative model refinement automatically. It is both implemented as a stand-alone Java application and as one of Anduril framework components. ModelRef performs data refinement of a model and generates the results in two different well known formats (SBML and CPS formats). The development of this tool successfully reduces the time and resource needed and the errors generated as well by traditional reiteration of the whole model to perform the fitting procedure.

Animal Spirits in Financial Markets: Agent-Based Model

In this work an agent based model (ABM) was proposed using the main idea from the Jabłonska-Capasso-Morale (JCM) model and maximized greediness concept. Using a multi-agents simulator, the power of the ABM was assessed by using the historical prices of silver metal dating from the 01.03.2000 to 01.03.2013. The model results, analysed in two different situations, with and without maximized greediness, have proven that the ABM is capable of explaining the silver price dynamics even in utmost events. The ABM without maximal greediness explained the prices with more irrationalities whereas the ABM with maximal greediness tracked the price movements with more rational decisions. In the comparison test, the model without maximal greediness stood as the best to capture the silver market dynamics. Therefore, the proposed ABM confirms the suggested reasons for financial crises or markets failure. It reveals that an economic or financial collapse may be stimulated by irrational and rational decisions, yet irrationalities may dominate the market.

Face processing in humans is compatible with a simple shape-based model of vision

Understanding how the human visual system recognizes objects is one of the key challenges in neuroscience. Inspired by a large body of physiological evidence (Felleman and Van Essen, 1991; Hubel and Wiesel, 1962; Livingstone and Hubel, 1988; Tso et al., 2001; Zeki, 1993), a general class of recognition models has emerged which is based on a hierarchical organization of visual processing, with succeeding stages being sensitive to image features of increasing complexity (Hummel and Biederman, 1992; Riesenhuber and Poggio, 1999; Selfridge, 1959). However, these models appear to be incompatible with some well-known psychophysical results. Prominent among these are experiments investigating recognition impairments caused by vertical inversion of images, especially those of faces. It has been reported that faces that differ "featurally" are much easier to distinguish when inverted than those that differ "configurally" (Freire et al., 2000; Le Grand et al., 2001; Mondloch et al., 2002) ??finding that is difficult to reconcile with the aforementioned models. Here we show that after controlling for subjects' expectations, there is no difference between "featurally" and "configurally" transformed faces in terms of inversion effect. This result reinforces the plausibility of simple hierarchical models of object representation and recognition in cortex.

A knowledge based model of regional growth. 'Un modelo basado en el conocimiento del crecimiento regional'.

Resumen tomado de la publicación

Design and optimisation of a large-area process-based model for annual crops

The formulation of a new process-based crop model, the general large-area model (GLAM) for annual crops is presented. The model has been designed to operate on spatial scales commensurate with those of global and regional climate models. It aims to simulate the impact of climate on crop yield. Procedures for model parameter determination and optimisation are described, and demonstrated for the prediction of groundnut (i.e. peanut; Arachis hypogaea L.) yields across India for the period 1966-1989. Optimal parameters (e.g. extinction coefficient, transpiration efficiency, rate of change of harvest index) were stable over space and time, provided the estimate of the yield technology trend was based on the full 24-year period. The model has two location-specific parameters, the planting date, and the yield gap parameter. The latter varies spatially and is determined by calibration. The optimal value varies slightly when different input data are used. The model was tested using a historical data set on a 2.5degrees x 2.5degrees grid to simulate yields. Three sites are examined in detail-grid cells from Gujarat in the west, Andhra Pradesh towards the south, and Uttar Pradesh in the north. Agreement between observed and modelled yield was variable, with correlation coefficients of 0.74, 0.42 and 0, respectively. Skill was highest where the climate signal was greatest, and correlations were comparable to or greater than correlations with seasonal mean rainfall. Yields from all 35 cells were aggregated to simulate all-India yield. The correlation coefficient between observed and simulated yields was 0.76, and the root mean square error was 8.4% of the mean yield. The model can be easily extended to any annual crop for the investigation of the impacts of climate variability (or change) on crop yield over large areas. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Linking pesticide exposure and spatial dynamics: An individual-based model of wood mouse (Apodemus sylvaticus) populations in agricultural landscapes

The wood mouse is a common and abundant species in agricultural landscape and is a focal species in pesticide risk assessment. Empirical studies on the ecology of the wood mouse have provided sufficient information for the species to be modelled mechanistically. An individual-based model was constructed to explicitly represent the locations and movement patterns of individual mice. This together with the schedule of pesticide application allows prediction of the risk to the population from pesticide exposure. The model included life-history traits of wood mice as well as typical landscape dynamics in agricultural farmland in the UK. The model obtains a good fit to the available population data and is fit for risk assessment purposes. It can help identify spatio-temporal situations with the largest potential risk of exposure and enables extrapolation from individual-level endpoints to population-level effects. Largest risk of exposure to pesticides was found when good crop growth in the “sink” fields coincided with high “source” population densities in the hedgerows. Keywords: Population dynamics, Pesticides, Ecological risk assessment, Habitat choice, Agent-based model, NetLogo

The influence of vegetation, fire spread and fire behaviour on biomass burning and trace gas emissions: results from a process-based model

A process-based fire regime model (SPITFIRE) has been developed, coupled with ecosystem dynamics in the LPJ Dynamic Global Vegetation Model, and used to explore fire regimes and the current impact of fire on the terrestrial carbon cycle and associated emissions of trace atmospheric constituents. The model estimates an average release of 2.24 Pg C yr−1 as CO2 from biomass burning during the 1980s and 1990s. Comparison with observed active fire counts shows that the model reproduces where fire occurs and can mimic broad geographic patterns in the peak fire season, although the predicted peak is 1–2 months late in some regions. Modelled fire season length is generally overestimated by about one month, but shows a realistic pattern of differences among biomes. Comparisons with remotely sensed burnt-area products indicate that the model reproduces broad geographic patterns of annual fractional burnt area over most regions, including the boreal forest, although interannual variability in the boreal zone is underestimated.

Using an individual-based model to select among alternative foraging strategies of woodpigeons: data support a memory-based model with a flocking mechanism

Population modelling is increasingly recognised as a useful tool for pesticide risk assessment. For vertebrates that may ingest pesticides with their food, such as woodpigeon (Columba palumbus), population models that simulate foraging behaviour explicitly can help predicting both exposure and population-level impact. Optimal foraging theory is often assumed to explain the individual-level decisions driving distributions of individuals in the field, but it may not adequately predict spatial and temporal characteristics of woodpigeon foraging because of the woodpigeons’ excellent memory, ability to fly long distances, and distinctive flocking behaviour. Here we present an individual-based model (IBM) of the woodpigeon. We used the model to predict distributions of foraging woodpigeons that use one of six alternative foraging strategies: optimal foraging, memory-based foraging and random foraging, each with or without flocking mechanisms. We used pattern-oriented modelling to determine which of the foraging strategies is best able to reproduce observed data patterns. Data used for model evaluation were gathered during a long-term woodpigeon study conducted between 1961 and 2004 and a radiotracking study conducted in 2003 and 2004, both in the UK, and are summarised here as three complex patterns: the distributions of foraging birds between vegetation types during the year, the number of fields visited daily by individuals, and the proportion of fields revisited by them on subsequent days. The model with a memory-based foraging strategy and a flocking mechanism was the only one to reproduce these three data patterns, and the optimal foraging model produced poor matches to all of them. The random foraging strategy reproduced two of the three patterns but was not able to guarantee population persistence. We conclude that with the memory-based foraging strategy including a flocking mechanism our model is realistic enough to estimate the potential exposure of woodpigeons to pesticides. We discuss how exposure can be linked to our model, and how the model could be used for risk assessment of pesticides, for example predicting exposure and effects in heterogeneous landscapes planted seasonally with a variety of crops, while accounting for differences in land use between landscapes.

An energy budget agent-based model of earthworm populations and its application to study the effects of pesticides

Earthworms are important organisms in soil communities and so are used as model organisms in environmental risk assessments of chemicals. However current risk assessments of soil invertebrates are based on short-term laboratory studies, of limited ecological relevance, supplemented if necessary by site-specific field trials, which sometimes are challenging to apply across the whole agricultural landscape. Here, we investigate whether population responses to environmental stressors and pesticide exposure can be accurately predicted by combining energy budget and agent-based models (ABMs), based on knowledge of how individuals respond to their local circumstances. A simple energy budget model was implemented within each earthworm Eisenia fetida in the ABM, based on a priori parameter estimates. From broadly accepted physiological principles, simple algorithms specify how energy acquisition and expenditure drive life cycle processes. Each individual allocates energy between maintenance, growth and/or reproduction under varying conditions of food density, soil temperature and soil moisture. When simulating published experiments, good model fits were obtained to experimental data on individual growth, reproduction and starvation. Using the energy budget model as a platform we developed methods to identify which of the physiological parameters in the energy budget model (rates of ingestion, maintenance, growth or reproduction) are primarily affected by pesticide applications, producing four hypotheses about how toxicity acts. We tested these hypotheses by comparing model outputs with published toxicity data on the effects of copper oxychloride and chlorpyrifos on E. fetida. Both growth and reproduction were directly affected in experiments in which sufficient food was provided, whilst maintenance was targeted under food limitation. Although we only incorporate toxic effects at the individual level we show how ABMs can readily extrapolate to larger scales by providing good model fits to field population data. The ability of the presented model to fit the available field and laboratory data for E. fetida demonstrates the promise of the agent-based approach in ecology, by showing how biological knowledge can be used to make ecological inferences. Further work is required to extend the approach to populations of more ecologically relevant species studied at the field scale. Such a model could help extrapolate from laboratory to field conditions and from one set of field conditions to another or from species to species.

Incorporating toxicokinetics into an individual-based model for more realistic pesticide exposure estimates: A case study of the wood mouse

The potential risk of agricultural pesticides to mammals typically depends on internal concentrations within individuals, and these are determined by the amount ingested and by absorption, distribution, metabolism, and excretion (ADME). Pesticide residues ingested depend, amongst other things, on individual spatial choices which determine how much and when feeding sites and areas of pesticide application overlap, and can be calculated using individual-based models (IBMs). Internal concentrations can be calculated using toxicokinetic (TK) models, which are quantitative representations of ADME processes. Here we provide a population model for the wood mouse (Apodemus sylvaticus) in which TK submodels were incorporated into an IBM representation of individuals making choices about where to feed. This allows us to estimate the contribution of individual spatial choice and TK processes to risk. We compared the risk predicted by four IBMs: (i) “AllExposed-NonTK”: assuming no spatial choice so all mice have 100% exposure, no TK, (ii) “AllExposed-TK”: identical to (i) except that the TK processes are included where individuals vary because they have different temporal patterns of ingestion in the IBM, (iii) “Spatial-NonTK”: individual spatial choice, no TK, and (iv) “Spatial-TK”: individual spatial choice and with TK. The TK parameters for hypothetical pesticides used in this study were selected such that a conventional risk assessment would fail. Exposures were standardised using risk quotients (RQ; exposure divided by LD50 or LC50). We found that for the exposed sub-population including either spatial choice or TK reduced the RQ by 37–85%, and for the total population the reduction was 37–94%. However spatial choice and TK together had little further effect in reducing RQ. The reasons for this are that when the proportion of time spent in treated crop (PT) approaches 1, TK processes dominate and spatial choice has very little effect, and conversely if PT is small spatial choice dominates and TK makes little contribution to exposure reduction. The latter situation means that a short time spent in the pesticide-treated field mimics exposure from a small gavage dose, but TK only makes a substantial difference when the dose was consumed over a longer period. We concluded that a combined TK-IBM is most likely to bring added value to the risk assessment process when the temporal pattern of feeding, time spent in exposed area and TK parameters are at an intermediate level; for instance wood mice in foliar spray scenarios spending more time in crop fields because of better plant cover.

Earthworm distribution and abundance predicted by a process-based model

Earthworms are significant ecosystem engineers and are an important component of the diet of many vertebrates and invertebrates, so the ability to predict their distribution and abundance would have wide application in ecology, conservation and land management. Earthworm viability is known to be affected by the availability and quality of food resources, soil water conditions and temperature, but has not yet been modelled mechanistically to link effects on individuals to field population responses. Here we present a novel model capable of predicting the effects of land management and environmental conditions on the distribution and abundance of Aporrectodea caliginosa, the dominant earthworm species in agroecosystems. Our process-based approach uses individual based modelling (IBM), in which each individual has its own energy budget. Individual earthworm energy budgets follow established principles of physiological ecology and are parameterised for A. caliginosa from experimental measurements under optimal conditions. Under suboptimal conditions (e.g. food limitation, low soil temperatures and water contents) reproduction is prioritised over growth. Good model agreement to independent laboratory data on individual cocoon production and growth of body mass, under variable feeding and temperature conditions support our representation of A. caliginosa physiology through energy budgets. Our mechanistic model is able to accurately predict A. caliginosa distribution and abundance in spatially heterogeneous soil profiles representative of field study conditions. Essential here is the explicit modelling of earthworm behaviour in the soil profile. Local earthworm movement responds to a trade-off between food availability and soil water conditions, and this determines the spatiotemporal distribution of the population in the soil profile. Importantly, multiple environmental variables can be manipulated simultaneously in the model to explore earthworm population exposure and effects to combinations of stressors. Potential applications include prediction of the population-level effects of pesticides and changes in soil management e.g. conservation tillage and climate change.

Software evolution: a graph based model

A model based on graph isomorphisms is used to formalize software evolution. Step by step we narrow the search space by an informed selection of the attributes based on the current state-of-the-art in software engineering and generate a seed solution. We then traverse the resulting space using graph isomorphisms and other set operations over the vertex sets. The new solutions will preserve the desired attributes. The goal of defining an isomorphism based search mechanism is to construct predictors of evolution that can facilitate the automation of ’software factory’ paradigm. The model allows for automation via software tools implementing the concepts.