An evaluation of human performance in a risk environment

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A pragmatic approach for engineering porous mannitol and mechanistic evaluation of particle performance

The importance of mannitol has increased recently as an emerging diluent for orodispersible dosage forms. The study aims to prepare spray dried mannitol retaining high porosity and mechanical strength for the development of orally disintegrating tablets (ODTs). Aqueous feed of d-mannitol (10% w/v) comprising ammonium bicarbonate, NH4HCO3 (5% w/v) as pore former was spray dried at inlet temperature of 110-170°C. Compacts were prepared at 151MPa and characterized for porosity, hardness and disintegration time. Particle morphology and drying mechanisms were studied using thermal (HSM, DSC and TGA) and polymorphic (XRD) methods. Tablet porosity increased from 0.20±0.002 for pure mannitol to 0.53±0.03 using fabricated porous mannitol. Disintegration time dropped by 50-77% from 135±5.29s for pure mannitol to 75.33±2.52-31.67±1.53s for mannitol 110-170°C. Hardness increased by 150% at 110°C (258.67±28.89N) and 30% at 150°C (152.70±10.58N) compared to pure mannitol tablets (104.17±1.70N). Increasing inlet temperature resulted in reducing tablet hardness due to generation of 'micro-sponge'-like particles exhibiting significant elastic recovery. Impact of mannitol polymorphism on plasticity/elasticity cannot be ruled out as a mixture of α and β polymorphs formed upon spray drying.

Evaluation of ventilation performance in public spaces.

Smoking restrictions in the workplace and increased health consciousness at home have seen a sizable reduction in the number of spaces where smoking is permissible. The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of ventilation in public houses, one of the few remaining public spaces where smoking is still socially acceptable. Little is known about the situation with shared occupancies, where relatively large areas are intended to accommodate both smokers and non-smokers. This study clearly identifies potential problems with a simplistic design approach to ventilation and its effectiveness in the context of shared occupancy spaces. A computational fluid dynamics code has been used to model airflows with the aim of identifying inefficiencies in existing ventilation systems.

Attributions and the Evaluation of Dynamic Performance

As research into the dynamic characteristics of job performance across time has continued to accumulate, associated implications for performance appraisal have become evident. At present, several studies have demonstrated that systematic trends in job performance across time influence how performance is ultimately judged. However, little research has considered the processes by which the performance trend-performance rating relationship occurs. In the present study, I addressed this gap. Specifically, drawing on attribution theory, I proposed and tested a model whereby the performance trend-performance rating relationship occurs through attributions to ability and effort. The results of this study indicated that attributions to ability, but not effort, mediate the relationship between performance trend and performance ratings and that this relationship depends on attribution-related cues. Implications for performance appraisal research and theory are discussed.

A General Latent Class Model for Performance Evaluation of Diagnostic Tests in the Absence of a Gold Standard: An Application to Chagas Disease

We propose a new general Bayesian latent class model for evaluation of the performance of multiple diagnostic tests in situations in which no gold standard test exists based on a computationally intensive approach. The modeling represents an interesting and suitable alternative to models with complex structures that involve the general case of several conditionally independent diagnostic tests, covariates, and strata with different disease prevalences. The technique of stratifying the population according to different disease prevalence rates does not add further marked complexity to the modeling, but it makes the model more flexible and interpretable. To illustrate the general model proposed, we evaluate the performance of six diagnostic screening tests for Chagas disease considering some epidemiological variables. Serology at the time of donation (negative, positive, inconclusive) was considered as a factor of stratification in the model. The general model with stratification of the population performed better in comparison with its concurrents without stratification. The group formed by the testing laboratory Biomanguinhos FIOCRUZ-kit (c-ELISA and rec-ELISA) is the best option in the confirmation process by presenting false-negative rate of 0.0002% from the serial scheme. We are 100% sure that the donor is healthy when these two tests have negative results and he is chagasic when they have positive results.

AN APPROACH FOR EVALUATION OF USE OF GEOCELLS IN FLEXIBLE PAVEMENTS

The design methodology for flexible pavements needs to address the mechanisms of pavement failure, loading intensities and also develop suitable approaches for evaluation of pavement performance. In the recent years, the use of geocells to improve pavement performance has been receiving considerable attention. This paper studies the influence of geocells on the required thickness of pavements by placing it below the granular layers (base and sub-base) and above the subgrade. The reduction in thickness here refers to the reduction in the thickness of the GSB (Granular Sub-base) layer, with a possibility of altogether getting rid of it. To facilitate the analysis, a simple linear elastic approach is used, considering six of the sections as given in the Indian Roads Congress (IRC) code. All the analysis was done using the pavement analysis package KENPAVE. The results show that the use of geocells enables a reduction in pavement thickness.

Evaluation of the Grounding Resistance of Conductors Buried in Steplike Terrain

Availability of land for conventional air-insulated substations is becoming increasingly difficult not only in urban but also in semiurban areas. When the land made available is highly uneven, the associated technoeconomic factors favors the erection of substations on a steplike-formed ground surface and such constructions are in service for more than ten years in some parts of southern India. Noting that the literature on the performance of ground grids in such a construction is rather scarce, the present work was taken up. Evaluation of the performance of earthing elements in steplike ground forms the main goal of the present work. For the numerical evaluation, a suitable boundary-based methodology is employed. This method retains the classical Galerkin approach for the conductors, while the interfaces are replaced by equivalent fictitious surface sources defined over unstructured mesh. Details of the implementation of this numerical method, along with special measures to minimize the computation, are presented. The performance of basic earthing elements, such as the driven rod, counterpoise, and simple grids buried in steplike ground, are analyzed and compared with that for the case with uniform soil surface. It is shown that more than the earthing resistances, the step potentials can get significantly affected.

Comprehensive evaluation of the WaterGAP3 model across climatic, physiographic, and anthropogenic gradients

In den letzten Jahrzehnten haben sich makroskalige hydrologische Modelle als wichtige Werkzeuge etabliert um den Zustand der globalen erneuerbaren Süßwasserressourcen flächendeckend bewerten können. Sie werden heutzutage eingesetzt um eine große Bandbreite wissenschaftlicher Fragestellungen zu beantworten, insbesondere hinsichtlich der Auswirkungen anthropogener Einflüsse auf das natürliche Abflussregime oder der Auswirkungen des globalen Wandels und Klimawandels auf die Ressource Wasser. Diese Auswirkungen lassen sich durch verschiedenste wasserbezogene Kenngrößen abschätzen, wie z.B. erneuerbare (Grund-)Wasserressourcen, Hochwasserrisiko, Dürren, Wasserstress und Wasserknappheit. Die Weiterentwicklung makroskaliger hydrologischer Modelle wurde insbesondere durch stetig steigende Rechenkapazitäten begünstigt, aber auch durch die zunehmende Verfügbarkeit von Fernerkundungsdaten und abgeleiteten Datenprodukten, die genutzt werden können, um die Modelle anzutreiben und zu verbessern. Wie alle makro- bis globalskaligen Modellierungsansätze unterliegen makroskalige hydrologische Simulationen erheblichen Unsicherheiten, die (i) auf räumliche Eingabedatensätze, wie z.B. meteorologische Größen oder Landoberflächenparameter, und (ii) im Besonderen auf die (oftmals) vereinfachte Abbildung physikalischer Prozesse im Modell zurückzuführen sind. Angesichts dieser Unsicherheiten ist es unabdingbar, die tatsächliche Anwendbarkeit und Prognosefähigkeit der Modelle unter diversen klimatischen und physiographischen Bedingungen zu überprüfen. Bisher wurden die meisten Evaluierungsstudien jedoch lediglich in wenigen, großen Flusseinzugsgebieten durchgeführt oder fokussierten auf kontinentalen Wasserflüssen. Dies steht im Kontrast zu vielen Anwendungsstudien, deren Analysen und Aussagen auf simulierten Zustandsgrößen und Flüssen in deutlich feinerer räumlicher Auflösung (Gridzelle) basieren. Den Kern der Dissertation bildet eine umfangreiche Evaluierung der generellen Anwendbarkeit des globalen hydrologischen Modells WaterGAP3 für die Simulation von monatlichen Abflussregimen und Niedrig- und Hochwasserabflüssen auf Basis von mehr als 2400 Durchflussmessreihen für den Zeitraum 1958-2010. Die betrachteten Flusseinzugsgebiete repräsentieren ein breites Spektrum klimatischer und physiographischer Bedingungen, die Einzugsgebietsgröße reicht von 3000 bis zu mehreren Millionen Quadratkilometern. Die Modellevaluierung hat dabei zwei Zielsetzungen: Erstens soll die erzielte Modellgüte als Bezugswert dienen gegen den jegliche weiteren Modellverbesserungen verglichen werden können. Zweitens soll eine Methode zur diagnostischen Modellevaluierung entwickelt und getestet werden, die eindeutige Ansatzpunkte zur Modellverbesserung aufzeigen soll, falls die Modellgüte unzureichend ist. Hierzu werden komplementäre Modellgütemaße mit neun Gebietsparametern verknüpft, welche die klimatischen und physiographischen Bedingungen sowie den Grad anthropogener Beeinflussung in den einzelnen Einzugsgebieten quantifizieren. WaterGAP3 erzielt eine mittlere bis hohe Modellgüte für die Simulation von sowohl monatlichen Abflussregimen als auch Niedrig- und Hochwasserabflüssen, jedoch sind für alle betrachteten Modellgütemaße deutliche räumliche Muster erkennbar. Von den neun betrachteten Gebietseigenschaften weisen insbesondere der Ariditätsgrad und die mittlere Gebietsneigung einen starken Einfluss auf die Modellgüte auf. Das Modell tendiert zur Überschätzung des jährlichen Abflussvolumens mit steigender Aridität. Dieses Verhalten ist charakteristisch für makroskalige hydrologische Modelle und ist auf die unzureichende Abbildung von Prozessen der Abflussbildung und –konzentration in wasserlimitierten Gebieten zurückzuführen. In steilen Einzugsgebieten wird eine geringe Modellgüte hinsichtlich der Abbildung von monatlicher Abflussvariabilität und zeitlicher Dynamik festgestellt, die sich auch in der Güte der Niedrig- und Hochwassersimulation widerspiegelt. Diese Beobachtung weist auf notwendige Modellverbesserungen in Bezug auf (i) die Aufteilung des Gesamtabflusses in schnelle und verzögerte Abflusskomponente und (ii) die Berechnung der Fließgeschwindigkeit im Gerinne hin. Die im Rahmen der Dissertation entwickelte Methode zur diagnostischen Modellevaluierung durch Verknüpfung von komplementären Modellgütemaßen und Einzugsgebietseigenschaften wurde exemplarisch am Beispiel des WaterGAP3 Modells erprobt. Die Methode hat sich als effizientes Werkzeug erwiesen, um räumliche Muster in der Modellgüte zu erklären und Defizite in der Modellstruktur zu identifizieren. Die entwickelte Methode ist generell für jedes hydrologische Modell anwendbar. Sie ist jedoch insbesondere für makroskalige Modelle und multi-basin Studien relevant, da sie das Fehlen von feldspezifischen Kenntnissen und gezielten Messkampagnen, auf die üblicherweise in der Einzugsgebietsmodellierung zurückgegriffen wird, teilweise ausgleichen kann.

Evaluation of CMIP5 palaeo-simulations to improve climate projections

Structural differences among models account for much of the uncertainty in projected climate changes, at least until the mid-twenty-first century. Recent observations encompass too limited a range of climate variability to provide a robust test of the ability to simulate climate changes. Past climate changes provide a unique opportunity for out-of-sample evaluation of model performance. Palaeo-evaluation has shown that the large-scale changes seen in twenty-first-century projections, including enhanced land–sea temperature contrast, latitudinal amplification, changes in temperature seasonality and scaling of precipitation with temperature, are likely to be realistic. Although models generally simulate changes in large-scale circulation sufficiently well to shift regional climates in the right direction, they often do not predict the correct magnitude of these changes. Differences in performance are only weakly related to modern-day biases or climate sensitivity, and more sophisticated models are not better at simulating climate changes. Although models correctly capture the broad patterns of climate change, improvements are required to produce reliable regional projections.

A comparative evaluation of the CF:CS and CRS models in Pb-210 chronological studies applied to hydrographic basins in Brazil

The Constant Flux: Constant Sedimentation (CF:CS) and Constant Rate of Supply (CRS) of unsupported/excess Pb-210 models have been applied to a Pb-210 data set providing of eighteen sediments profiles sampled at four riverine systems occurring in Brazil, South America: Corumbatai River basin (S1=Site 1, Sao Paulo State), Atibaia River basin (S2=Site 2, Sao Paulo State), Ribeirao dos Bagres basin (S3=Site 3, Sao Paulo State) and Amazon River mouth. (S4=Site 4, Amapa State). These sites were chosen for a comparative evaluation of the performance of the CF:CS and CRS models due to their pronounced differences on the geographical location, geological context, soil composition, biodiversity, climate, rainfall, and water flow regime, among other variable aspects. However, all sediments cores exhibited a common denominator consisting on a database built from the use of the same techniques for acquiring the sediments major chemical composition (SiO2, Al2O3, Na2O, K2O, CaO, MgO, Fe2O3, MnO, P2O5, TiO2 and LOI-Loss on Ignition) and unsupported/excess 210Pb activity data. In terms of sedimentation rates, the performance of the CRS model was better than that of the CF:CS model as it yielded values more compatible with those expected from field evidences. Under the chronological point of view, the CRS model always provided ages within the permitted range of the Pb-210-method in the studied sites, whereas the CF:CS model predicted some values above 150 years. The SiO2 content decreased in accordance with the LOI increase in all cores analyzed and such inverse relationship was also tracked in the SiO2-LOI curves of historical trends. The SiO2-LOI concentration fluctuations in sites S1 and S3 also coincided with some Cu and Cr inputs in the drainage systems. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Nondestructive evaluation of concrete compression strength by means of Artificial Neural Network (ANN)

The evaluation of structural performance of existing concrete buildings, built according to standards and materials quite different to those available today, requires procedures and methods able to cover lack of data about mechanical material properties and reinforcement detailing. To this end detailed inspections and test on materials are required. As a consequence tests on drilled cores are required; on the other end, it is stated that non-destructive testing (NDT) cannot be used as the only mean to get structural information, but can be used in conjunction with destructive testing (DT) by a representative correlation between DT and NDT. The aim of this study is to verify the accuracy of some formulas of correlation available in literature between measured parameters, i.e. rebound index, ultrasonic pulse velocity and compressive strength (SonReb Method). To this end a relevant number of DT and NDT tests has been performed on many school buildings located in Cesena (Italy). The above relationships have been assessed on site correlating NDT results to strength of core drilled in adjacent locations. Nevertheless, concrete compressive strength assessed by means of NDT methods and evaluated with correlation formulas has the advantage of being able to be implemented and used for future applications in a much more simple way than other methods, even if its accuracy is strictly limited to the analysis of concretes having the same characteristics as those used for their calibration. This limitation warranted a search for a different evaluation method for the non-destructive parameters obtained on site. To this aim, the methodology of neural identification of compressive strength is presented. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) suitable for the specific analysis were chosen taking into account the development presented in the literature in this field. The networks were trained and tested in order to detect a more reliable strength identification methodology.

Neural patterns underlying social comparisons of personal performance

Humans often evaluate their abilities by comparing their personal performance with that of others. For this process, it is critical whether the comparison turns out in one's favor or against it. Here, we investigate how social comparisons of performance are encoded and integrated on the neural level. We collected functional magnetic resonance images while subjects answered questions in a knowledge quiz that was related to their profession. After each question, subjects received a feedback about their personal performance, followed by a feedback about the performance of a reference group who had been quizzed beforehand. Based on the subjects' personal performance, we divided trials in downward and upward comparisons. We found that upward comparisons correlated with activity in the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex and the anterior insula. Downward comparisons were associated with increased activation in the ventral striatum (VS), the medial orbitofrontal cortex and the ventral anterior cingulate cortex (ACC). The extent to which subjects outperformed the reference group modulated the activity in the VS and in the dorsal ACC. We suggest that the co-activation of the VS and the dorsal ACC contributes to the integration of downward comparisons into the evaluation of personal performance.

A novel motion tracking system for evaluation of functional rehabilitation of the upper limbs

Upper limb function impairment is one of the most common sequelae of central nervous system injury, especially in stroke patients and when spinal cord injury produces tetraplegia. Conventional assessment methods cannot provide objective evaluation of patient performance and the tiveness of therapies. The most common assessment tools are based on rating scales, which are inefficient when measuring small changes and can yield subjective bias. In this study, we designed an inertial sensor-based monitoring system composed of five sensors to measure and analyze the complex movements of the upper limbs, which are common in activities of daily living. We developed a kinematic model with nine degrees of freedom to analyze upper limb and head movements in three dimensions. This system was then validated using a commercial optoelectronic system. These findings suggest that an inertial sensor-based motion tracking system can be used in patients who have upper limb impairment through data integration with a virtual reality-based neuroretation system.