The simulation of ship evacuation under fire conditions

When designing a new passenger ship or modifying an existing design, how do we ensure that the proposed design and crew emergency procedures are safe from an evacuation resulting from fire or other incident? In the wake of major maritime disasters such as the Scandinavian Star, Herald of Free Enterprise, Estonia and in light of the growth in the numbers of high density, high-speed ferries and large capacity cruise ships, issues concerning the evacuation of passengers and crew at sea are receiving renewed interest. Fire and evacuation models with features such as the ability to realistically simulate the spread of fire and fire suppression systems and the human response to fire as well as the capability to model human performance in heeled orientations linked to a virtual reality environment that produces realistic visualisations of the modelled scenarios are now available and can be used to aid the engineer in assessing ship design and procedures. This paper describes the maritimeEXODUS ship evacuation and the SMARTFIRE fire simulation model and provides an example application demonstrating the use of the models in performing fire and evacuation analysis for a large passenger ship partially based, but exceeding the requirements of MSC circular 1033.

An Analysis of Human Behavior during Evacuation

The World Trade Center Evacuation: The evacuation of the WTC complex represents one of the largest full-scale evacuations of people in modern times.

The UK WTC 9/11 evacuation study: methodologies used in the elicitation and storage of human factors data

This paper describes the methodologies employed in the collection and storage of first-hand accounts of evacuation experiences derived from face-to-face interviews with evacuees from the World Trade Center (WTC) Twin Towers complex on 11 September 2001. In particular the paper describes the development of the High-rise Evacuation Evaluation Database (HEED). This is a flexible qualitative research tool which contains the full transcribed interview accounts and coded evacuee experiences extracted from those transcripts. The data and information captured and stored in the HEED database is not only unique, but it provides a means to address current and emerging issues relating to human factors associated with the evacuation of high-rise buildings.

Investigating the impact of occupant response time on computer simulations of the WTC North Tower evacuation

This work explores the impact of response time distributions on high-rise building evacuation. The analysis utilises response times extracted from printed accounts and interviews of evacuees from the WTC North Tower evacuation of 11 September 2001. Evacuation simulations produced using these “real” response time distributions are compared with simulations produced using instant and engineering response time distributions. Results suggest that while typical engineering approximations to the response time distribution may produce reasonable evacuation times for up to 90% of the building population, using this approach may underestimate total evacuation times by as much as 61%. These observations are applicable to situations involving large high-rise buildings in which travel times are generally expected to be greater than response times

Predicting the likely impact of aircraft post crash fire on aircraft evacuation using fire and evacuation simulation

The SMARTFIRE Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) fire field model has successfully reproduced the observed characteristics including measured temperatures, species concentrations and time to flashover for a post-crash fire experiment conducted by the FAA within their C-133 cabin test facility. In this test only one exit was open in order to provide ventilation for the developing cabin fire. In real post-crash fires, many exits are likely to be open as passangers attempt to evacuate. In this paper, the likely impacts on evacuation of a post-crash fire in which various exiting combinations are available are investigated. The fire scenario, investigated using the SMARTFIRE software, is based on the C-133 experiment but with a fully furnished cabin and with four different exit availability options. The fire data is imported into the airEXODUS evacuation simulation software and the resulting evacuations examined. The combined fire and evacuation analysis reveals that even though the aircraft configuration is predicted to comfortably satisfy the evacuation certification requirement, when fire is included, a number of casualties result, even from the certification compliant exit configuration.

The UK WTC 9/11 evacuation study: an overview of the methodologies employed and some analysis relating to fatigue, stair travel speeds and occupant response times

This paper briefly describes the methodologies employed in the collection and storage of first-hand accounts of evacuation experiences derived from face-to-face interviews with evacuees from the World Trade Center (WTC) Twin Towers complex on 11 September 2001 and the development of the High-rise Evacuation Evaluation Database (HEED). The main focus of the paper is to present an overview of preliminary analysis of data derived from the evacuation of the North Tower.

The UK WTC9/11 evacuation study: an overview of the methodologies employed and some preliminary analysis

This paper briefly describes the methodologies employed in the collection and storage of first-hand accounts of evacuation experiences derived from face-to-face interviews from evacuees from the World Trade Centre (WTC) Twin Towers complex on 11 Septebmer 2001 and the development of the High-rise Evacuation Evaluation Database (HEED). The main focus of the paper is to present a preliminary analysis of data derived from the evacuation of the North Tower.

Erythropoietin neuroprotection is enhanced by direct cortical application following subdural blood evacuation in a rat model of acute subdural hematoma

Recombinant human erythropoietin (EPO) has been successfully tested as neuroprotectant in brain injury models. The first large clinical trial with stroke patients, however, revealed negative results. Reasons are manifold and may include side-effects such as thrombotic complications or interactions with other medication, EPO concentration, penetration of the blood-brain-barrier and/or route of application. The latter is restricted to systemic application. Here we hypothesize that EPO is neuroprotective in a rat model of acute subdural hemorrhage (ASDH) and that direct cortical application is a feasible route of application in this injury type. The subdural hematoma was surgically evacuated and EPO was applied directly onto the surface of the brain. We injected NaCl, 200, 2000 or 20,000IU EPO per rat i.v. at 15min post-ASDH (400μl autologous venous blood) or NaCl, 0.02, 0.2 or 2IU per rat onto the cortical surface after removal of the subdurally infused blood t at 70min post-ASDH. Arterial blood pressure (MAP), blood chemistry, intracranial pressure (ICP), cerebral blood flow (CBF) and brain tissue oxygen (ptiO2) were assessed during the first hour and lesion volume at 2days after ASDH. EPO 20,000IU/rat (i.v.) elevated ICP significantly. EPO at 200 and 2000IU reduced lesion volume from 38.2±0.6mm(3) (NaCl-treated group) to 28.5±0.9 and 22.2±1.3mm(3) (all p<0.05 vs. NaCl). Cortical application of 0.02IU EPO after ASDH evacuation reduced injury from 36.0±5.2 to 11.2±2.1mm(3) (p=0.007), whereas 0.2IU had no effect (38.0±9.0mm(3)). The highest dose of both application routes (i.v. 20,000IU; cortical 2IU) enlarged the ASDH-induced damage significantly to 46.5±1.7 and 67.9±10.4mm(3) (all p<0.05 vs. NaCl). In order to test whether Tween-20, a solvent of EPO formulation 'NeoRecomon®' was responsible for adverse effects two groups were treated with NaCl or Tween-20 after the evacuation of ASDH, but no difference in lesion volume was detected. In conclusion, EPO is neuroprotective in a model of ASDH in rats and was most efficacious at a very low dose in combination with subdural blood removal. High systemic and topically applied concentrations caused adverse effects on lesion size which were partially due to increased ICP. Thus, patients with traumatic ASDH could be treated with cortically applied EPO but with caution concerning concentration.

Assessment of Narrow-Body Transport Airplane Evacuation by Numerical Simulation

This paper presents the results obtained with a new agent-based computer model that can simulate the evacuation of narrow-body transport airplanes in the conditions prescribed by the airworthiness regulations for certification. The model, described in detail in a former paper, has been verified with real data of narrow-body certification demonstrations. Numerical simulations of around 20 narrow-body aircraft, representative of current designs in various market segments, show the capabilities of the model and provide relevant information on the relationship between cabin features and emergency evacuation. The longitudinal location of emergency exits seems to be even more important than their size or the overall margin with respect to the prescribed number and type of exits indicated by the airworthiness requirements

An operational research-based integrated approach for mass evacuation planning of a city

Large-scale disasters are constantly occurring around the world, and in many cases evacuation of regions of city is needed. ‘Operational Research/Management Science’ (OR/MS) has been widely used in emergency planning for over five decades. Warning dissemination, evacuee transportation and shelter management are three ‘Evacuation Support Functions’ (ESF) generic to many hazards. This thesis has adopted a case study approach to illustrate the importance of integrated approach of evacuation planning and particularly the role of OR/MS models. In the warning dissemination phase, uncertainty in the household’s behaviour as ‘warning informants’ has been investigated along with uncertainties in the warning system. An agentbased model (ABM) was developed for ESF-1 with households as agents and ‘warning informants’ behaviour as the agent behaviour. The model was used to study warning dissemination effectiveness under various conditions of the official channel. In the transportation phase, uncertainties in the household’s behaviour such as departure time (a function of ESF-1), means of transport and destination have been. Households could evacuate as pedestrians, using car or evacuation buses. An ABM was developed to study the evacuation performance (measured in evacuation travel time). In this thesis, a holistic approach for planning the public evacuation shelters called ‘Shelter Information Management System’ (SIMS) has been developed. A generic allocation framework of was developed to available shelter capacity to the shelter demand by considering the evacuation travel time. This was formulated using integer programming. In the sheltering phase, the uncertainty in household shelter choices (either nearest/allocated/convenient) has been studied for its impact on allocation policies using sensitivity analyses. Using analyses from the models and detailed examination of household states from ‘warning to safety’, it was found that the three ESFs though sequential in time, however have lot of interdependencies from the perspective of evacuation planning. This thesis has illustrated an OR/MS based integrated approach including and beyond single ESF preparedness. The developed approach will help in understanding the inter-linkages of the three evacuation phases and preparing a multi-agency-based evacuation planning evacuation

Health impacts of floods

Introduction: Floods are the most common hazard to cause disasters and have led to extensive morbidity and mortality throughout the world. The impact of floods on the human community is related directly to the location and topography of the area, as well as human demographics and characteristics of the built environment. Objectives: The aim of this study is to identify the health impacts of disasters and the underlying causes of health impacts associated with floods. A conceptual framework is developed that may assist with the development of a rational and comprehensive approach to prevention, mitigation, and management. Methods: This study involved an extensive literature review that located >500 references, which were analyzed to identify common themes, findings, and expert views. The findings then were distilled into common themes. Results: The health impacts of floods are wide ranging, and depend on a number of factors. However, the health impacts of a particular flood are specific to the particular context. The immediate health impacts of floods include drowning, injuries, hypothermia, and animal bites. Health risks also are associated with the evacuation of patients, loss of health workers, and loss of health infrastructure including essential drugs and supplies. In the mediumterm, infected wounds, complications of injury, poisoning, poor mental health, communicable diseases, and starvation are indirect effects of flooding. In the long-term, chronic disease, disability, poor mental health, and poverty-related diseases including malnutrition are the potential legacy. Conclusions: This article proposes a structured approach to the classification of the health impacts of floods and a conceptual framework that demonstrates the relationships between floods and the direct and indirect health consequences.

Turbulent velocity and suspended sediment concentration measurements in an urban environment of the Brisbane River Flood Plain at Gardens Point on 12-13 January 2011

The flood flow in urbanised areas constitutes a major hazard to the population and infrastructure as seen during the summer 2010-2011 floods in Queensland (Australia). Flood flows in urban environments have been studied relatively recently, although no study considered the impact of turbulence in the flow. During the 12-13 January 2011 flood of the Brisbane River, some turbulence measurements were conducted in an inundated urban environment in Gardens Point Road next to Brisbane's central business district (CBD) at relatively high frequency (50 Hz). The properties of the sediment flood deposits were characterised and the acoustic Doppler velocimeter unit was calibrated to obtain both instantaneous velocity components and suspended sediment concentration in the same sampling volume with the same temporal resolution. While the flow motion in Gardens Point Road was subcritical, the water elevations and velocities fluctuated with a distinctive period between 50 and 80 s. The low frequency fluctuations were linked with some local topographic effects: i.e, some local choke induced by an upstream constriction between stairwells caused some slow oscillations with a period close to the natural sloshing period of the car park. The instantaneous velocity data were analysed using a triple decomposition, and the same triple decomposition was applied to the water depth, velocity flux, suspended sediment concentration and suspended sediment flux data. The velocity fluctuation data showed a large energy component in the slow fluctuation range. For the first two tests at z = 0.35 m, the turbulence data suggested some isotropy. At z = 0.083 m, on the other hand, the findings indicated some flow anisotropy. The suspended sediment concentration (SSC) data presented a general trend with increasing SSC for decreasing water depth. During a test (T4), some long -period oscillations were observed with a period about 18 minutes. The cause of these oscillations remains unknown to the authors. The last test (T5) took place in very shallow waters and high suspended sediment concentrations. It is suggested that the flow in the car park was disconnected from the main channel. Overall the flow conditions at the sampling sites corresponded to a specific momentum between 0.2 to 0.4 m2 which would be near the upper end of the scale for safe evacuation of individuals in flooded areas. But the authors do not believe the evacuation of individuals in Gardens Point Road would have been safe because of the intense water surges and flow turbulence. More generally any criterion for safe evacuation solely based upon the flow velocity, water depth or specific momentum cannot account for the hazards caused by the flow turbulence, water depth fluctuations and water surges.

Failed states and the rule of law

The last decade has seen an emerging consensus that the rule of law is critical in both domestic and international affairs. ‘Failed’ states generate important issues for both the rule of law and, importantly, for their intersection or interaction. A ‘failed’ state almost inevitably involves a breakdown of the domestic rule of law. When international intervention occurs, it raises concerns over substantive issues. Among these is the application of international law and international norms, including among other, the conventions and treaties, the responsibility to protect and protection of civilians. Where international missions seek to assist the people of ‘failed’ states in rebuilding their nations, establishing the rule of law is often the primary or initial pursuit. Any such international assistance/intervention is more effective if it is clearly subject to the rule of law and provides an exemplar/demonstration of how power should be exercised

Points of convergence and divergence : normative, institutional and operational relationships between R2P and POC

As an international norm, the Responsibility to Protect (R2P) has gained substantial influence and institutional presence—and created no small controversy—in the ten years since its first conceptualisation. Conversely, the Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflict (PoC) has a longer pedigree and enjoys a less contested reputation. Yet UN Security Council action in Libya in 2011 has thrown into sharp relief the relationship between the two. UN Security Council Resolutions 1970 and 1973 follow exactly the process envisaged by R2P in response to imminent atrocity crimes, yet the operative paragraphs of the resolutions themselves invoke only PoC. This article argues that, while the agendas of PoC and R2P converge with respect to Security Council action in cases like Libya, outside this narrow context it is important to keep the two norms distinct. Peacekeepers, humanitarian actors, international lawyers, individual states and regional organisations are required to act differently with respect to the separate agendas and contexts covered by R2P and PoC. While overlap between the two does occur in highly visible cases like Libya, neither R2P nor PoC collapses normatively, institutionally or operationally into the other.