A model analysis of climate and CO2 controls on tree growth in a semi-arid woodland

We used a light-use efficiency model of photosynthesis coupled with a dynamic carbon allocation and tree-growth model to simulate annual growth of the gymnosperm Callitris columellaris in the semi-arid Great Western Woodlands, Western Australia, over the past 100 years. Parameter values were derived from independent observations except for sapwood specific respiration rate, fine-root turnover time, fine-root specific respiration rate and the ratio of fine-root mass to foliage area, which were estimated by Bayesian optimization. The model reproduced the general pattern of interannual variability in radial growth (tree-ring width), including the response to the shift in precipitation regimes that occurred in the 1960s. Simulated and observed responses to climate were consistent. Both showed a significant positive response of tree-ring width to total photosynthetically active radiation received and to the ratio of modeled actual to equilibrium evapotranspiration, and a significant negative response to vapour pressure deficit. However, the simulations showed an enhancement of radial growth in response to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration (ppm) ([CO2]) during recent decades that is not present in the observations. The discrepancy disappeared when the model was recalibrated on successive 30-year windows. Then the ratio of fine-root mass to foliage area increases by 14% (from 0.127 to 0.144 kg C m-2) as [CO2] increased while the other three estimated parameters remained constant. The absence of a signal of increasing [CO2] has been noted in many tree-ring records, despite the enhancement of photosynthetic rates and water-use efficiency resulting from increasing [CO2]. Our simulations suggest that this behaviour could be explained as a consequence of a shift towards below-ground carbon allocation.

On the observability of turbulent transport rates by Argo: supporting evidence from an inversion experiment

Although estimation of turbulent transport parameters using inverse methods is not new, there is little evaluation of the method in the literature. Here, it is shown that extended observation of the broad scale hydrography by Argo provides a path to improved estimates of regional turbulent transport rates. Results from a 20 year ocean state estimate produced with the ECCO v4 non-linear inverse modeling framework provide supporting evidence. Turbulent transport parameter maps are estimated under the constraints of fitting the extensive collection of Argo profiles collected through 2011. The adjusted parameters dramatically reduce misfits to in situ profiles as compared with earlier ECCO solutions. They also yield a clear reduction in the model drift away from observations over multi-century long simulations, both for assimilated variables (temperature and salinity) and independent variables (bio-geochemical tracers). Despite the minimal constraints imposed specifically on the estimated parameters, their geography is physically plausible and exhibits close connections with the upper ocean ocean stratification as observed by Argo. The estimated parameter adjustments furthermore have first order impacts on upper-ocean stratification and mixed layer depths over 20 years. These results identify the constraint of fitting Argo profiles as an effective observational basis for regional turbulent transport rates. Uncertainties and further improvements of the method are discussed.

How much flower-rich habitat is enough for wild pollinators? Answering a key policy question with incomplete knowledge

In 2013, an opportunity arose in England to develop an agri-environment package for wild pollinators, as part of the new Countryside Stewardship scheme launched in 2015. It can be understood as a 'policy window', a rare and time-limited opportunity to change policy, supported by a narrative about pollinator decline and widely supported mitigating actions. An agri-environment package is a bundle of management options that together supply sufficient resources to support a target group of species. This paper documents information that was available at the time to develop such a package for wild pollinators. Four questions needed answering: (1) Which pollinator species should be targeted? (2) Which resources limit these species in farmland? (3) Which management options provide these resources? (4) What area of each option is needed to support populations of the target species? Focussing on wild bees, we provide tentative answers that were used to inform development of the package. There is strong evidence that floral resources can limit wild bee populations, and several sources of evidence identify a set of agri-environment options that provide flowers and other resources for pollinators. The final question could only be answered for floral resources, with a wide range of uncertainty. We show that the areas of some floral resource options in the basic Wild Pollinator and Farmland Wildlife Package (2% flower-rich habitat and 1 km flowering hedgerow), are sufficient to supply a set of six common pollinator species with enough pollen to feed their larvae at lowest estimates, using minimum values for estimated parameters where a range was available. We identify key sources of uncertainty, and stress the importance of keeping the Package flexible, so it can be revised as new evidence emerges about how to achieve the policy aim of supporting pollinators on farmland.

Essays on firm dynamics in the Swedish wholesale trade sector

This thesis consists of a summary and five self-contained papers addressing dynamics of firms in the Swedish wholesale trade sector. Paper [1] focuses upon determinants of new firm formation in the Swedish wholesale trade sector, using two definitions of firms’ relevant markets, markets defined as administrative areas, and markets based on a cost minimizing behavior of retailers. The paper shows that new entering firms tend to avoid regions with already high concentration of other firms in the same branch of wholesaling, while right-of-the-center local government and quality of the infrastructure have positive impacts upon entry of new firms. The signs of the estimated coefficients remain the same regardless which definition of relevant market is used, while the size of the coefficients is generally higher once relevant markets delineated on the cost-minimizing assumption of retailers are used. Paper [2] analyses determinant of firm relocation, distinguishing between the role of the factors in in-migration municipalities and out-migration municipalities. The results of the analysis indicate that firm-specific factors, such as profits, age and size of the firm are negatively related to the firm’s decision to relocate. Furthermore, firms seems to be avoiding municipalities with already high concentration of firms operating in the same industrial branch of wholesaling and also to be more reluctant to leave municipalities governed by right-of-the- center parties. Lastly, firms seem to avoid moving to municipalities characterized with high population density. Paper [3] addresses determinants of firm growth, adopting OLS and a quantile regression technique. The results of this paper indicate that very little of the firm growth can be explained by the firm-, industry- and region-specific factors, controlled for in the estimated models. Instead, the firm growth seems to be driven by internal characteristics of firms, factors difficult to capture in conventional statistics. This result supports Penrose’s (1959) suggestion that internal resources such as firm culture, brand loyalty, entrepreneurial skills, and so on, are important determinants of firm growth rates. Paper [4] formulates a forecasting model for firm entry into local markets and tests this model using data from the Swedish wholesale industry. The empirical analysis is based on directly estimating the profit function of wholesale firms and identification of low- and high-return local markets. The results indicate that 19 of 30 estimated models have more net entry in high-return municipalities, but the estimated parameters is only statistically significant at conventional level in one of our estimated models, and then with unexpected negative sign. Paper [5] studies effects of firm relocation on firm profits of relocating firms, employing a difference-in-difference propensity score matching. Using propensity score matching, the pre-relocalization differences between relocating and non-relocating firms are balanced, while the difference-in-difference estimator controls for all time-invariant unobserved heterogeneity among firms. The results suggest that firms that relocate increase their profits significantly, in comparison to what the profits would be had the firms not relocated. This effect is estimated to vary between 3 to 11 percentage points, depending on the length of the analyzed period. 

An analysis of quit and dismissal determinants between 1988 and 1999 using the bivariate probit model

Excessive labor turnover may be considered, to a great extent, an undesirable feature of a given economy. This follows from considerations such as underinvestment in human capital by firms. Understanding the determinants and the evolution of turnover in a particular labor market is therefore of paramount importance, including policy considerations. The present paper proposes an econometric analysis of turnover in the Brazilian labor market, based on a partial observability bivariate probit model. This model considers the interdependence of decisions taken by workers and firms, helping to elucidate the causes that lead each of them to end an employment relationship. The Employment and Unemployment Survey (PED) conducted by the State System of Data Analysis (SEADE) and by the Inter-Union Department of Statistics and Socioeconomic Studies (DIEESE) provides data at the individual worker level, allowing for the estimation of the joint probabilities of decisions to quit or stay on the job on the worker’s side, and to maintain or fire the employee on the firm’s side, during a given time period. The estimated parameters relate these estimated probabilities to the characteristics of workers, job contracts, and to the potential macroeconomic determinants in different time periods. The results confirm the theoretical prediction that the probability of termination of an employment relationship tends to be smaller as the worker acquires specific skills. The results also show that the establishment of a formal employment relationship reduces the probability of a quit decision by the worker, and also the firm’s firing decision in non-industrial sectors. With regard to the evolution of quit probability over time, the results show that an increase in the unemployment rate inhibits quitting, although this tends to wane as the unemployment rate rises.

Estimação e compensação de não linearidades inerentes aos atuadores dos processos industriais

The oscillations presents in control loops can cause damages in petrochemical industry. Canceling, or even preventing such oscillations, would save up to large amount of dollars. Studies have identified that one of the causes of these oscillations are the nonlinearities present on industrial process actuators. This study has the objective to develop a methodology for removal of the harmful effects of nonlinearities. Will be proposed an parameter estimation method to Hammerstein model, whose nonlinearity is represented by dead-zone or backlash. The estimated parameters will be used to construct inverse models of compensation. A simulated level system was used as a test platform. The valve that controls inflow has a nonlinearity. Results and describing function analysis show an improvement on system response

Fuzzy modeling to predict chicken egg hatchability in commercial hatchery

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Extração do óleo e caracterização dos resíduos da borra de petróleo para fins de reuso

The petroleum industry, in consequence of an intense activity of exploration and production, is responsible by great part of the generation of residues, which are considered toxic and pollutants to the environment. Among these, the oil sludge is found produced during the production, transportation and refine phases. This work had the purpose to develop a process to recovery the oil present in oil sludge, in order to use the recovered oil as fuel or return it to the refining plant. From the preliminary tests, were identified the most important independent variables, like: temperature, contact time, solvents and acid volumes. Initially, a series of parameters to characterize the oil sludge was determined to characterize its. A special extractor was projected to work with oily waste. Two experimental designs were applied: fractional factorial and Doehlert. The tests were carried out in batch process to the conditions of the experimental designs applied. The efficiency obtained in the oil extraction process was 70%, in average. Oil sludge is composed of 36,2% of oil, 16,8% of ash, 40% of water and 7% of volatile constituents. However, the statistical analysis showed that the quadratic model was not well fitted to the process with a relative low determination coefficient (60,6%). This occurred due to the complexity of the oil sludge. To obtain a model able to represent the experiments, the mathematical model was used, the so called artificial neural networks (RNA), which was generated, initially, with 2, 4, 5, 6, 7 and 8 neurons in the hidden layer, 64 experimental results and 10000 presentations (interactions). Lesser dispersions were verified between the experimental and calculated values using 4 neurons, regarding the proportion of experimental points and estimated parameters. The analysis of the average deviations of the test divided by the respective training showed up that 2150 presentations resulted in the best value parameters. For the new model, the determination coefficient was 87,5%, which is quite satisfactory for the studied system

Application of ionospheric corrections in the equatorial region for L1 GPS users

In the absence of the selective availability, which was turned off on May 1, 2000, the ionosphere can be the largest source of error in GPS positioning and navigation. Its effects on GPS observable cause a code delays and phase advances. The magnitude of this error is affected by the local time of the day, season, solar cycle, geographical location of the receiver and Earth's magnetic field. As it is well known, the ionosphere is the main drawback for high accuracy positioning, when using single frequency receivers, either for point positioning or relative positioning of medium and long baselines. The ionosphere effects were investigated in the determination of point positioning and relative positioning using single frequency data. A model represented by a Fourier series type was implemented and the parameters were estimated from data collected at the active stations of RBMC (Brazilian Network for Continuous Monitoring of GPS satellites). The data input were the pseudorange observables filtered by the carrier phase. Quality control was implemented in order to analyse the adjustment and to validate the significance of the estimated parameters. Experiments were carried out in the equatorial region, using data collected from dual frequency receivers. In order to validate the model, the estimated values were compared with ground truth. For point and relative positioning of baselines of approximately 100 km, the values of the discrepancies indicated an error reduction better than 80% and 50% respectively, compared to the processing without the ionospheric model. These results give an indication that more research has to be done in order to provide support to the L1 GPS users in the Equatorial region.

Extração de feições retas com precisão subpixel: estudo comparativo entre três métodos

In the fields of Machine Vision and Photogrammetry, extracted straight lines from digital images can be used either as vector elements of a digital representation or as control entities that allow the determination of the camera interior and exterior orientation parameters. Applications related with image orientation require feature extraction with subpixel precision, to guarantee the reliability of the estimated parameters. This paper presents three approaches for straight line extraction with subpixel precision. The first approach considers the subpixel refinement based on the weighted average of subpixel positions calculated on the direction perpendicular to the segmented straight line. In the second approach, a parabolic function is adjusted to the grey level profile of neighboring pixels in a perpendicular direction to the segmented line, followed by an interpolation of this model to estimate subpixel coordinates of the line center. In the third approach, the subpixel refinement is performed with a parabolic surface adjustment to the grey level values of neighboring pixels around the segmented line. The intersection of this surface with a normal plane to the line direction generates a parabolic equation that allows estimating the subpixel coordinates of the point in the straight line, assuming that this is the critical point of this function. Three experiments with real images were made and the approach based on parabolic surface adjustment has presented better results.

Senna occidentalis Link. (Caesalpiniaceae) imbibition curves for NaCl osmotic potential levels up to 0.6 MPa

An investigation is reported on the statistical model of imbibition curves of the seeds of Senna occidentalis Link. (Caesalpiniaceae), up to Phase II (start of root emission) in osmotic potential levels (0; -0.2; -0.4 and -0.6 MPa), induced NaCl or PEG 6000. The statistical model for both solutions was y = a [1 b exp(-cx)] where y is the fresh matter of seed in g, and x the time of evaluation in h. The analysis of variance of the estimated parameters, showed that with the NaCl solution, the -0.4 and -0.6 MPa levels differed significantly from the 0 and -0.2 MPa levels, and that with the PEG solution, the -0.6 MPa differed from the rest. Prolongation of Phase II occurred as the potential decreased, with both solutions. More reduction in water uptake and prolongation of this phase occurred with the PEG treatment.

Biologia populacional de Cyphocarax modestus (Osteichthyes, Curimatidae) no córrego Ribeirão Claro, município de Rio Claro (SP)

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Crescimento e mortalidade de Oligosarcus hepsetus (Cuvier, 1829) (Characiformes, Characidae) no Parque Estadual da Serra do Mar, Núcleo Santa Virgínia, São Paulo, Brasil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Crescimento e mortalidade de Brycon opalinus (Characiformes, Characidae) no Parque Estadual da Serra do Mar, Mata Atlântica, Estado de São Paulo

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Biologia populacional de Cyphocarax modestus no córrego Ribeirão Claro, município de Rio Claro (SP)

This work aimed a better understanding of the annual cycle of Cyphocarax modestus in the reservoir of water captation of Ribeirao Claro stream. The growth parameters were estimated through the analysis of length distribution and the relationships among time of smaller growth, alimentary activity, fat accumulation and reproductive period were considered. Besides, the instantaneous rate of natural mortality was calculated. Monthly samplings were accomplished in the Ribeirao Claro stream, in the reservoir of water captation of Rio Claro city. For that, 50 m of wait net was used, with meshes of 1.5, 2.0, 2.5, 3.0 and 3.5 cm measured between adjacent knots. The ELEFAN I program was used to estimate the growth parameters, and its application was done using the FISAT program. It was also used the seasonal version of von Bertalanffy's growth curve. It was considered that the reproduction of C. modestus is annual and concentrated from December to February, allowing the identification of different modas in the distributions, an essential condition for the conduction of that analysis type. The estimated parameters were: K = 0.34/year, L [infinity] = 15.40 cm, C = 0.2, Wp = 0.6 and M = 0.949/year, with the identification of four cohorts. The physiologic sequence in the annual cycle of the specie could be noted when data of accumulated fat in the visceral cavity, alimentary activity, reproduction time and time of smaller growth were analyzed together. It was noted that with the beginning of the maturation of gonads, the energy resources stopped being invested in the growth and passed to be used for reproduction.