Indian Ocean dipole mode events in an ocean general circulation model

The evolution of the dipole mode (DM) events in the Indian Ocean is examined using an ocean model that is driven by the NCEP fluxes for the period 1975-1998. The positive DM events during 1997, 1994 and 1982 and negative DM events during 1996 and 1984-1985 are captured by the model and it reproduces both the surface and subsurface features associated with these events. In its positive phase, the DM is characterized by warmer than normal SST in the western Indian Ocean and cooler than normal SST in the eastern Indian Ocean. The DM events are accompanied by easterly wind anomalies along the equatorial Indian Ocean and upwelling-favorable alongshore wind anomalies along the coast of Sumatra. The Wyrtki jets are weak during positive DM events, and the thermocline is shallower than normal in the eastern Indian Ocean and deeper in the west. This anomaly pattern reverses during negative DM events. During the positive phase of the DM easterly wind anomalies excite an upwelling equatorial Kelvin wave. This Kelvin wave reflects from the eastern boundary as an upwelling Rossby wave which propagates westward across the equatorial Indian Ocean. The anomalies in the eastern Indian Ocean weaken after the Rossby wave passes. A similar process excites a downwelling Rossby wave during the negative phase. This Rossby wave is much weaker but wind forcing in the central equatorial Indian Ocean amplifies the downwelling and increases its westward phase speed. This Rossby wave initiates the deepening of the thermocline in the western Indian Ocean during the following positive phase of the DM. Rossby wave generated in the southern tropical Indian Ocean by Ekman pumping contributes to this warming. Concurrently, the temperature equation of the model shows upwelling and downwelling to be the most important mechanism during both positive events of 1994 and 1997. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Indian Ocean forecast system

In order to meet the ever growing demand for the prediction of oceanographic parametres in the Indian Ocean for a variety of applications, the Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS) has recently set-up an operational ocean forecast system, viz. the Indian Ocean Forecast System (INDOFOS). This fully automated system, based on a state-of-the-art ocean general circulation model issues six-hourly forecasts of the sea-surface temperature, surface currents and depths of the mixed layer and the thermocline up to five-days of lead time. A brief account of INDOFOS and a statistical validation of the forecasts of these parametres using in situ and remote sensing data are presented in this article. The accuracy of the sea-surface temperature forecasts by the system is high in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea, whereas it is moderate in the equatorial Indian Ocean. On the other hand, the accuracy of the depth of the thermocline and the isothermal layers and surface current forecasts are higher near the equatorial region, while it is relatively lower in the Bay of Bengal.

Evaluation of GODAS Using RAMA Mooring Observations from the Indian Ocean

We present a comparison of the Global Ocean Data Assimilation System (GODAS) five-day ocean analyses against in situ daily data from Research Moored Array for African-Asian-Australian Monsoon Analysis and Prediction (RAMA) moorings at locations 90 degrees E, 12 degrees N; 90 degrees E, 8 degrees N; 90 degrees E, 0 degrees N and 90 degrees E, 1.5 degrees S in the equatorial Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal during 2002-2008. We find that the GODAS temperature analysis does not adequately capture a prominent signal of Indian Ocean dipole mode of 2006 seen in the mooring data, particularly at 90 degrees E 0 degrees N and 90 degrees E 1.5 degrees S in the eastern India Ocean. The analysis, using simple statistics such as bias and root-mean-square deviation, indicates that standard GODAS temperature has definite biases and significant differences with observations on both subseasonal and seasonal scales. Subsurface salinity has serious deficiencies as well, but this may not be surprising considering the poorly constrained fresh water forcing, and possible model deficiencies in subsurface vertical mixing. GODAS reanalysis needs improvement to make it more useful for study of climate variability and for creating ocean initial conditions for prediction.

Two modes of dipole events in tropical Indian Ocean

By analyzing the distributions of subsurface temperature and the surface wind stress anomalies in the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans during the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events, two major modes of the IOD and their formation mechanisms are revealed. (1) The subsurface temperature anomaly (STA) in the tropical Indian Ocean during the IOD events can be described as a "<" -shaped and west-east-oriented dipole pattern; in the east side of the "<" pattern, a notable tongue-like STA extends westward along the equator in the tropical eastern Indian Ocean; while in the west side of the "<" pattern, the STA has opposite sign with two centers (the southern one is stronger than the northern one in intensity) being of rough symmetry about the equator in the tropical mid-western Indian Ocean. (2) The IOD events are composed of two modes, which have similar spatial pattern but different temporal variabilities due to the large scale air-sea interactions within two independent systems. The first mode of the IOD event originates from the air-sea interaction on a scale of the tropical Pacific-Indian Ocean and coexists with ENSO. The second mode originates from the air-sea interaction on a scale of the tropical Indian Ocean and is closely associated with changes in the position and intensity of the Mascarene high pressure. The strong IOD event occurs when the two modes are in phase, and the IOD event weakens or disappears when the two modes are out of phase. Besides, the IOD events are normally strong when either of the two modes is strong. (3) The IOD event is caused by the abnormal wind stress forcing over the tropical Indian Ocean, which results in vertical transports, leading to the upwelling and pileup of seawater. This is the main dynamic processes resulting in the STA. When the anomalous easterly exists over the equatorial Indian Ocean, the cold waters upwell in the tropical eastern Indian Ocean while the warm waters pileup in the tropical western Indian Ocean, hence the thermocline in the tropical Indian Ocean is shallowed in the east and deepened in the west. The off-equator component due to the Coriolis force in the equatorial area causes the upwelling of cold waters and the shallowing of the equatorial India Ocean thermocline. On the other hand, the anomalous anticyclonic circulations and their curl fields located on both sides of the equator, cause the pileup of warm waters in the central area of their curl fields and the deepening of the equatorial Indian Ocean thermocline off the equator. The above three factors lead to the occurrence of positive phase IOD events. When anomalous westerly dominates over the tropical Indian Ocean, the dynamic processes are reversed, and the negative-phase IOD event occurs.

Long-Wave Dynamics of Sea Level Variations during Indian Ocean Dipole Events

Long-wave dynamics of the interannual variations of the equatorial Indian Ocean circulation are studied using an ocean general circulation model forced by the assimilated surface winds and heat flux of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. The simulation has reproduced the sea level anomalies of the Ocean Topography Experiment (TOPEX)/Poseidon altimeter observations well. The equatorial Kelvin and Rossby waves decomposed from the model simulation show that western boundary reflections provide important negative feedbacks to the evolution of the upwelling currents off the Java coast during Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) events. Two downwelling Kelvin wave pulses are generated at the western boundary during IOD events: the first is reflected from the equatorial Rossby waves and the second from the off-equatorial Rossby waves in the southern Indian Ocean. The upwelling in the eastern basin during the 1997-98 IOD event is weakened by the first Kelvin wave pulse and terminated by the second. In comparison, the upwelling during the 1994 IOD event is terminated by the first Kelvin wave pulse because the southeasterly winds off the Java coast are weak at the end of 1994. The atmospheric intraseasonal forcing, which plays an important role in inducing Java upwelling during the early stage of an IOD event, is found to play a minor role in terminating the upwelling off the Java coast because the intraseasonal winds are either weak or absent during the IOD mature phase. The equatorial wave analyses suggest that the upwelling off the Java coast during IOD events is terminated primarily by western boundary reflections.

Impact of biannual rossby waves on the Indian Ocean Dipole

Topex/Poseidon sea surface height anomalies during 1993-2002 are decomposed using 2-D finite impulse response filters which showed biannual Rossby waves (BRWs) in the equatorial Indian Ocean (peak at 1.5 degrees S) and in the southern tropical Indian Ocean (peak at 10.5 degrees S) during Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) years. Anomalous downwelling BRWs in the equatorial Indian Ocean triggered by the wind stress curl-induced Ekman pumping near the eastern boundary started propagating westward from the eastern boundary in July/August 1993 and 1996, i.e., more than one year prior to the formation of the IOD events of 1994 and 1997 respectively. These strong downwelling signals reach the western equatorial Indian Ocean during the peak dipole time.

Eocene-Oligocene calcareous nannofossils from ODP sites 115-711 and 120-748 in the Indian Ocean

An Eocene-Oligocene calcareous nannofossil biostratigraphic framework for Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 748 in the southern Indian Ocean is established, which provides a foundation for this and future quantitative biogeographic studies. This biostratigraphic analysis, together with quantitative nannofossil data, enables a reinterpretation of the preliminary magnetostratigraphy and a new placement for magnetic Subchron CBN in the lowermost Oligocene. Calcareous nannofossil species diversity is low at Site 748 relative to lower latitude sites, with about 13 taxa in the middle Eocene, gradually decreasing to about 6 in the late Oligocene. There is, however, no apparent mass extinction at any stratigraphic level. Similarly, no mass extinctions were recorded at or near the Eocene/Oligocene boundary at Site 711 in the equatorial Indian Ocean. Species diversity at the equatorial site is significantly higher than at Site 748, with a maximum of 39 species in the middle Eocene and a minimum of 14 species in the late Oligocene. The abundance patterns of nannofossil taxa are also quite different at the two sites, with chiasmoliths, Isthmolithus recurvus, and Reticulofenestra daviesii abundant and restricted to the high-latitude site and Coccolithus formosus, discoasters, and sphenoliths abundant at the equatorial site but impoverished at the high-latitude site. This indicates a significant latitudinal biogeographic gradient between the equatorial site and the high-latitude site in the Indian Ocean for the middle Eocene-Oligocene interval. The abundance change of warm-water taxa is similar to that of species diversity at Site 711. There is a general trend of decreasing abundance of warm-water taxa from the middle Eocene through the early Oligocene at Site 711, suggesting a gradual cooling of the surface waters in the equatorial Indian Ocean. The abundance of warm-water taxa increased in the late Oligocene, in association with an increase in species diversity, and this may reflect a warming of the surface waters in the late Oligocene. An abrupt increase in the abundance of cool-water taxa (from ~20% to over 90%) occurred from 36.3 to 35.9 Ma at high-latitude Site 748. Coincident with this event was a ~1.0 per mil positive shift in the delta18O value of planktonic foraminifers and the occurrence of ice-rafted debris. This abrupt change in the nannofossil population is a useful biostratigraphic event for locating the bottom of magnetic Subchron C13N in the Southern Ocean. The sharp increase in cool-water taxa coeval with a large positive shift in delta18O values suggests that the high-latitude surface waters drastically cooled around 36.3-35.9 Ma. The temperature drop is estimated to be 4°C or more at Site 748 based on the nannofossil population change relative to the latitudinal biogeographic gradient established in the South Atlantic Ocean during previous studies. Consequently, much of the delta18O increase at Site 748 appears to be due to a temperature drop in the high latitudes rather than an ice-volume signal. The ~0.1 per mil delta18O increase not accounted for by the temperature drop is attributed to an ice-volume increase of 4.6 * 10**3 km**3, or 20% the size of the present Antarctic ice sheet.

(Appendix B) Benthic foraminifera in Indian Ocean surface sediments

Multivariate analysis was performed on percentages of 46 species of unstained deep-sea benthic foraminifera from 131 core-top to near-core-top samples (322-5013 m) from across the Indian Ocean. Faunal data are combined with GEOSECS geochemical data to investigate any relationship between benthic foraminifera (assemblages and species) and deep-sea properties. In general, benthic foraminifera show a good correlation to surface productivity, organic carbon flux to the sea floor, deep-sea oxygenation and, to a lesser extent, to bottom temperature, without correlation with the water depths. The foraminiferal census data combined with geochemical data has enabled the division of the Indian Ocean into two faunal provinces. Province A occupies the northwestern Indian Ocean (Arabian Sea region) where surface primary production has a major maximum during the summer monsoon season and a secondary maximum during winter monsoon season that leads to high organic flux to the seafloor, making the deep-sea one of the most oxygen-deficient regions in the world ocean, with a pronounced oxygen minimum zone (OMZ). This province is dominated by benthic foraminifera characteristic of low oxygen and high organic food flux including Uvigerina peregrina, Robulus nicobarensis, Bolivinita pseudopunctata, Bolivinita sp., Bulimina aculeata, Bulimina alazanensis, Ehrenbergina carinata and Cassidulina carinata. Province B covers southern, southeastern and eastern parts of the Indian Ocean and is dominated by Nuttallides umbonifera, Epistominella exigua, Globocassidulina subglobosa, Uvigerina proboscidea, Cibicides wuellerstorfi, Cassidulina laevigata, Pullenia bulloides, Pullenia osloensis, Pyrgo murrhina, Oridorsalis umbonatus, Gyroidinoides (= Gyroidina) soldanii and Gyroidinoides cf. gemma suggesting well-oxygenated, cold deep water with low (oligotrophic) and pulsed food supply.

Intraseasonal variability of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature during boreal winter: Madden-Julian Oscillation versus submonthly forcing and processes

[ 1] Intraseasonal variability of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) during boreal winter is investigated by analyzing available data and a suite of solutions to an ocean general circulation model for 1998 - 2004. This period covers the QuikSCAT and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) observations. Impacts of the 30 - 90 day and 10 - 30 day atmospheric intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs) are examined separately, with the former dominated by the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the latter dominated by convectively coupled Rossby and Kelvin waves. The maximum variation of intraseasonal SST occurs at 10 degrees S - 2 degrees S in the wintertime Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), where the mixed layer is thin and intraseasonal wind speed reaches its maximum. The observed maximum warming ( cooling) averaged over ( 60 degrees E - 85 degrees E, 10 degrees S - 3 degrees S) is 1.13 degrees C ( - 0.97 degrees C) for the period of interest, with a standard deviation of 0.39 degrees C in winter. This SST change is forced predominantly by the MJO. While the MJO causes a basin-wide cooling ( warming) in the ITCZ region, submonthly ISOs cause a more complex SST structure that propagates southwestward in the western-central basin and southeastward in the eastern ocean. On both the MJO and submonthly timescales, winds are the deterministic factor for the SST variability. Short-wave radiation generally plays a secondary role, and effects of precipitation are negligible. The dominant role of winds results roughly equally from wind speed and stress forcing. Wind speed affects SST by altering turbulent heat fluxes and entrainment cooling. Wind stress affects SST via several local and remote oceanic processes.

Coupled simulations of the Indian monsoon intraseasonal oscillation using a fine-resolution mixed-layer ocean model

The intraseasonal variability (ISV) of the Indian summer monsoon is dominated by a 30–50 day oscillation between “active” and “break” events of enhanced and reduced rainfall over the subcontinent, respectively. These organized convective events form in the equatorial Indian Ocean and propagate north to India. Atmosphere–ocean coupled processes are thought to play a key role the intensity and propagation of these events. A high-resolution, coupled atmosphere–mixed-layer-oceanmodel is assembled: HadKPP. HadKPP comprises the Hadley Centre Atmospheric Model (HadAM3) and the K Profile Parameterization (KPP) mixed-layer ocean model. Following studies that upper-ocean vertical resolution and sub-diurnal coupling frequencies improve the simulation of ISV in SSTs, KPP is run at 1 m vertical resolution near the surface; the atmosphere and ocean are coupled every three hours. HadKPP accurately simulates the 30–50 day ISV in rainfall and SSTs over India and the Bay of Bengal, respectively, but suffers from low ISV on the equator. This is due to the HadAM3 convection scheme producing limited ISV in surface fluxes. HadKPP demonstrates little of the observed northward propagation of intraseasonal events, producing instead a standing oscillation. The lack of equatorial ISV in convection in HadAM3 constrains the ability of KPP to produce equatorial SST anomalies, which further weakens the ISV of convection. It is concluded that while atmosphere–ocean interactions are undoubtedly essential to an accurate simulation of ISV, they are not a panacea for model deficiencies. In regions where the atmospheric forcing is adequate, such as the Bay of Bengal, KPP produces SST anomalies that are comparable to the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Microwave Imager (TMI) SST analyses in both their magnitude and their timing with respect to rainfall anomalies over India. HadKPP also displays a much-improved phase relationship between rainfall and SSTs over a HadAM3 ensemble forced by observed SSTs, when both are compared to observations. Coupling to mixed-layer models such as KPP has the potential to improve operational predictions of ISV, particularly when the persistence time of SST anomalies is shorter than the forecast lead time.