Dusting off the epidemiological triad: could it work with obesity

The search for effective ways of dealing with obesity has centred on biological research and clinical management. However, obesity needs to be conceptualized more broadly if the modern pandemic is to be arrested. The epidemiological triad (hosts, agent/vectors and environments) has served us well in dealing with epidemics in the past, and may be worth re-evaluating to this end. Education, behaviour change and clinical practices deal predominantly with the host, although multidisciplinary practices such as shared-care might also be expected to impact on other corners of the triad. Technology deals best with the agent of obesity (energy imbalance) and it's vectors (excessive energy intake and/or inadequate energy expenditure), and policy and social change are needed to cope with the environment. The value of a broad model like this, rather than specific isolated approaches, is that the key players such as legislators, health professionals, governments and industry can see their roles in attenuating and eventually reversing the epidemic. It also highlights the need to intervene at all levels in obesity control and reduces the relevance of arguments about nature vs. nurture.


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Cardiovascular risk prediction model development and assessment

The aim of this article is to review the development and assessment of cardiovascular risk prediction models and to discuss the predictive value of a risk factor as well as to introduce new assessment methods to evaluate a risk prediction model. Many cardiovascular risk prediction models have been developed during the past three decades. However, there has not been consistent agreement regarding how to appropriately assess a risk prediction model, especially when new markers are added to an existing model. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve has traditionally been used to assess the discriminatory ability of a risk prediction model. However, recent studies suggest that this method has its limitations and cannot be the sole approach to evaluate the usefulness of a new marker. New assessment methods are being developed to appropriately assess a risk prediction model and they will be gradually used in clinical and epidemiological studies.

Selection of working correlation structure and best model in GEE analyses of longitudinal data

The Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE) method is one of the most commonly used statistical methods for the analysis of longitudinal data in epidemiological studies. A working correlation structure for the repeated measures of the outcome variable of a subject needs to be specified by this method. However, statistical criteria for selecting the best correlation structure and the best subset of explanatory variables in GEE are only available recently because the GEE method is developed on the basis of quasi-likelihood theory. Maximum likelihood based model selection methods, such as the widely used Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), are not applicable to GEE directly. Pan (2001) proposed a selection method called QIC which can be used to select the best correlation structure and the best subset of explanatory variables. Based on the QIC method, we developed a computing program to calculate the QIC value for a range of different distributions, link functions and correlation structures. This program was written in Stata software. In this article, we introduce this program and demonstrate how to use it to select the most parsimonious model in GEE analyses of longitudinal data through several representative examples.

Ocular exposure to UV-B in sunlight: the Melbourne Visual Impairment Project model

Quantification of ocular exposure to ultraviolet-B radiation (UV-B) has become an important public health issue, with reports that the ozone layer is being depleted worldwide. Ocular exposure to UV-B is determined by ambient UV-B levels, the duration of outdoor exposure, the proportion of ambient UV-B that reaches the eye, and the use of ocular protection. We have developed a simplified model for quantifying lifetime ocular UV-B exposure that can be used in large epidemiological surveys. Exposure to UV-B is assessed and quantified using a model based on personal exposure over the six summer months. Data available for a population-based sample of 1150 people in the age range 40-98 years revealed a distribution in average annual lifetime ocular UV-B exposure similar to that reported in a previous study on which this model is based, and also demonstrate that people can recall lifetime personal behaviour related to ocular protection. It takes 12 minutes on average to collect these data. This model can be employed by researchers worldwide for uniform assessment of ocular UV-B exposure.

Pigeons (Columba livia) are a suitable experimental model for Neospora caninum infection in birds

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Leprosy control: perspectives & epidemiological and operational aspects

OBJETIVOS: A partir de acervo de 200 textos acadêmicos e de documentos de organismos nacionais e internacionais voltados ao controle da hanseníase publicados no período de 1999 a 2008, procurou-se estudar respectivas possibilidades evolutivas futuras, empregando-se os subsídios do recurso de análise de cenários. MÉTODOS: A reconstrução metodológica adotada foi de natureza qualitativa, fulcrada nas técnicas de revisão bibliográfica e análise de conteúdo. Esta última foi empregada na tipificação documental categorial frequencial contigencial, de acordo com devida fundamentação pertinente. RESULTADOS: Recuperaram-se elementos atuais importantes de natureza epidemiológica e operacional, bem como de respectivas perspectivas. CONCLUSÕES: Projeta-se que a manutenção dos coeficientes de incidência da doença coloca reptos econômicos e sanitários a desafiar desde o modelo neoliberal de organização societária mundial até competências específicas das ações das equipes de saúde em campo.

Recent and future environmental suitability to dengue fever in Brazil using species distribution model

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Epidemiological Models of Directly Transmitted Diseases: An Approach via Fuzzy Sets Theory

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

A General Latent Class Model for Performance Evaluation of Diagnostic Tests in the Absence of a Gold Standard: An Application to Chagas Disease

We propose a new general Bayesian latent class model for evaluation of the performance of multiple diagnostic tests in situations in which no gold standard test exists based on a computationally intensive approach. The modeling represents an interesting and suitable alternative to models with complex structures that involve the general case of several conditionally independent diagnostic tests, covariates, and strata with different disease prevalences. The technique of stratifying the population according to different disease prevalence rates does not add further marked complexity to the modeling, but it makes the model more flexible and interpretable. To illustrate the general model proposed, we evaluate the performance of six diagnostic screening tests for Chagas disease considering some epidemiological variables. Serology at the time of donation (negative, positive, inconclusive) was considered as a factor of stratification in the model. The general model with stratification of the population performed better in comparison with its concurrents without stratification. The group formed by the testing laboratory Biomanguinhos FIOCRUZ-kit (c-ELISA and rec-ELISA) is the best option in the confirmation process by presenting false-negative rate of 0.0002% from the serial scheme. We are 100% sure that the donor is healthy when these two tests have negative results and he is chagasic when they have positive results.

Risk factors for hepatitis C virus infection in Inland Brazil: An analysis of pooled epidemiological sectional studies

In order to assess the contribution of different parenteral routes as risk exposure to the hepatitis C virus (HCV), samples from nine surveys or cross-sectional studies conducted in two Brazilian inland regions were pooled, including a total of 3,910 subjects. Heterogeneity among the study results for different risk factors was tested and the results were shown to be homogeneous. Anti-HCV antibodies were observed in 241 individuals, of which 146 (3.7%, 95% CI?=?3.24.4) had HCV exposure confirmed by immunoblot analysis or PCR test. After adjustment for relevant variables, a correlation between confirmed HCV exposure and injection drug use, tattooing, and advance age was observed. In a second logistic model that included exposures not searched in all nine studies, a smaller sample was analyzed, revealing an independent HCV association with past history of surgery and males who have sex with other males, in addition to repeated injection drug use. Overall, these analyses corroborate the finding that injection drug use is the main risk factor for HCV exposure and spread, in addition to other parenteral routes. J. Med. Virol. 84:756762, 2012. (C) 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Effects of Repeated Stress on Distal Airway Inflammation, Remodeling and Mechanics in an Animal Model of Chronic Airway Inflammation

Background/Aims: Epidemiological studies suggest that stress has an impact on asthmatic exacerbations. We evaluated if repeated stress, induced by forced swimming, modulates lung mechanics, distal airway inflammation and extracellular matrix remodeling in guinea pigs with chronic allergic inflammation. Methods: Guinea pigs were submitted to 7 ovalbumin or saline aerosols (1-5 mg/ml during 4 weeks; OVA and SAL groups). Twenty-four hours after the 4th inhalation, guinea pigs were submitted to the stress protocol 5 times a week during 2 weeks (SAL-S and OVA-S groups). Seventy-two hours after the 7th inhalation, guinea pigs were anesthetized and mechanically ventilated. Resistance and elastance of the respiratory system were obtained at baseline and after ovalbumin challenge. Lungs were removed, and inflammatory and extracellular matrix remodeling of distal airways was assessed by morphometry. Adrenals were removed and weighed. Results: The relative adrenal weight was greater in stressed guinea pigs compared to non-stressed animals (p < 0.001). Repeated stress increased the percent elastance of the respiratory system after antigen challenge and eosinophils and lymphocytes in the OVA-S compared to the OVA group (p < 0.001, p = 0.003 and p < 0.001). Neither collagen nor elastic fiber contents were modified by stress in sensitized animals. Conclusions: In this animal model, repeated stress amplified bronchoconstriction and inflammatory response in distal airways without interfering with extracellular matrix remodeling. Copyright (C) 2011 S. Karger AG, Basel

Sero-epidemiological evaluation of changes in Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax transmission patterns over the rainy season in Cambodia

Background: In Cambodia, malaria transmission is low and most cases occur in forested areas. Seroepidemiological techniques can be used to identify both areas of ongoing transmission and high-risk groups to be targeted by control interventions. This study utilizes repeated cross-sectional data to assess the risk of being malaria sero-positive at two consecutive time points during the rainy season and investigates who is most likely to sero-convert over the transmission season. Methods: In 2005, two cross-sectional surveys, one in the middle and the other at the end of the malaria transmission season, were carried out in two ecologically distinct regions in Cambodia. Parasitological and serological data were collected in four districts. Antibodies to Plasmodium falciparum Glutamate Rich Protein (GLURP) and Plasmodium vivax Merozoite Surface Protein-119 (MSP-119) were detected using Enzyme Linked Immunosorbent Assay (ELISA). The force of infection was estimated using a simple catalytic model fitted using maximum likelihood methods. Risks for sero-converting during the rainy season were analysed using the Classification and Regression Tree (CART) method. Results: A total of 804 individuals participating in both surveys were analysed. The overall parasite prevalence was low (4.6% and 2.0% for P. falciparum and 7.9% and 6.0% for P. vivax in August and November respectively). P. falciparum force of infection was higher in the eastern region and increased between August and November, whilst P. vivax force of infection was higher in the western region and remained similar in both surveys. In the western region, malaria transmission changed very little across the season (for both species). CART analysis for P. falciparum in the east highlighted age, ethnicity, village of residence and forest work as important predictors for malaria exposure during the rainy season. Adults were more likely to increase their antibody responses to P. falciparum during the transmission season than children, whilst members of the Charay ethnic group demonstrated the largest increases. Discussion: In areas of low transmission intensity, such as in Cambodia, the analysis of longitudinal serological data enables a sensitive evaluation of transmission dynamics. Consecutive serological surveys allow an insight into spatio-temporal patterns of malaria transmission. The use of CART enabled multiple interactions to be accounted for simultaneously and permitted risk factors for exposure to be clearly identified.

Performance of six diagnostic tests to screen for Chagas disease in blood banks and prevalence of Trypanosoma cruzi infection among donors with inconclusive serology screening based on the analysis of epidemiological variables

OBJECTIVE: The frequent occurrence of inconclusive serology in blood banks and the absence of a gold standard test for Chagas'disease led us to examine the efficacy of the blood culture test and five commercial tests (ELISA, IIF, HAI, c-ELISA, rec-ELISA) used in screening blood donors for Chagas disease, as well as to investigate the prevalence of Trypanosoma cruzi infection among donors with inconclusive serology screening in respect to some epidemiological variables. METHODS: To obtain estimates of interest we considered a Bayesian latent class model with inclusion of covariates from the logit link. RESULTS: A better performance was observed with some categories of epidemiological variables. In addition, all pairs of tests (excluding the blood culture test) presented as good alternatives for both screening (sensitivity > 99.96% in parallel testing) and for confirmation (specificity > 99.93% in serial testing) of Chagas disease. The prevalence of 13.30% observed in the stratum of donors with inconclusive serology, means that probably most of these are non-reactive serology. In addition, depending on the level of specific epidemiological variables, the absence of infection can be predicted with a probability of 100% in this group from the pairs of tests using parallel testing. CONCLUSION: The epidemiological variables can lead to improved test results and thus assist in the clarification of inconclusive serology screening results. Moreover, all combinations of pairs using the five commercial tests are good alternatives to confirm results.

Epidemiological and functional characterization of Streptococcus pneumoniae pili

Streptococcus pneumoniae is an important life threatening human pathogen causing agent of invasive diseases such as otitis media, pneumonia, sepsis and meningitis, but is also a common inhabitant of the respiratory tract of children and healthy adults. Likewise most streptococci, S. pneumoniae decorates its surface with adhesive pili, composed of covalently linked subunits and involved in the attachment to epithelial cells and virulence. The pneumococcal pili are encoded by two genomic regions, pilus islet 1 (PI-1), and pilus islet-2 (PI-2), which are present in about 30% and 16% of the pneumococcal strains, respectively. PI-1 exists in three clonally related variants, whereas PI-2 is highly conserved. The presence of the islets does not correlate with the serotype of the strains, but with the genotype (as determined by Multi Locus Sequence Typing). The prevalence of PI-1 and PI-2 positive strains is similar in isolates from invasive disease and carriage. To better dissect a possible association between PIs presence and disease we evaluated the distribution of the two PIs in a panel of 113 acute otitis media (AOM) clinical isolates from Israel. PI-1 was present in 30.1% (N=34) of the isolates tested, and PI-2 in 7% (N=8). We found that 50% of the PI-1 positive isolates belonged to the international clones Spain9V-3 (ST156) and Taiwan19F-14 (ST236), and that PI-2 was not present in the absence of Pl-1. In conclusion, there was no correlation between PIs presence and AOM, and, in general, the observed differences in PIs prevalence are strictly dependent upon regional differences in the distribution of the clones. Finally, in the AOM collection the prevalence of PI-1 was higher among antibiotic resistant isolates, confirming previous indications obtained by the in silico analysis of the MLST database collection. Since the pilus-1 subunits were shown to confer protection in mouse models of infection both in active and passive immunization studies, and were regarded as potential candidates for a new generation of protein-based vaccines, the functional characterization was mainly focused on S. pneumoniae pilus -1 components. The pneumococcal pilus-1 is composed of three subunits, RrgA, RrgB and RrgC, each stabilized by intra-molecular isopeptide bonds and covalently polymerized by means of inter-molecular isopeptide bonds to form an extended fibre. The pilus shaft is a multimeric structure mainly composed by the RrgB backbone subunit. The minor ancillary proteins are located at the tip and at the base of the pilus, where they have been proposed to act as the major adhesin (RrgA) and as the pilus anchor (RrgC), respectively. RrgA is protective in in vivo mouse models, and exists in two variants (clades I and II). Mapping of the sequence variability onto the RrgA structure predicted from X-ray data showed that the diversity was restricted to the “head” of the protein, which contains the putative binding domains, whereas the elongated “stalk” was mostly conserved. To investigate whether this variability could influence the adhesive capacity of RrgA and to map the regions important for binding, two full-length protein variants and three recombinant RrgA portions were tested for adhesion to lung epithelial cells and to purified extracellular matrix (ECM) components. The two RrgA variants displayed similar binding abilities, whereas none of the recombinant fragments adhered at levels comparable to those of the full-length protein, suggesting that proper folding and structural arrangement are crucial to retain protein functionality. Furthermore, the two RrgA variants were shown to be cross-reactive in vitro and cross-protective in vivo in a murine model of passive immunization. Taken together, these data indicate that the region implicated in adhesion and the functional epitopes responsible for the protective ability of RrgA may be conserved and that the considerable level of variation found within the “head” domain of RrgA may have been generated by immunologic pressure without impairing the functional integrity of the pilus.