Dengue Virus Type 3 Adaptive Changes during Epidemics in Sao Jose de Rio Preto, Brazil, 2006-2007

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Dengue virus type 3 adaptive changes during epidemics in São Jose de Rio Preto, Brazil, 2006–2007

Global dengue virus spread in tropical and sub-tropical regions has become a major international public health concern. It is evident that DENV genetic diversity plays a significant role in the immunopathology of the disease and that the identification of polymorphisms associated with adaptive responses is important for vaccine development. The investigation of naturally occurring genomic variants may play an important role in the comprehension of different adaptive strategies used by these mutants to evade the human immune system. In order to elucidate this role we sequenced the complete polyprotein-coding region of thirty-three DENV-3 isolates to characterize variants circulating under high endemicity in the city of São José de Rio Preto, Brazil, during the onset of the 2006-07 epidemic. By inferring the evolutionary history on a local-scale and estimating rates of synonymous (dS) and nonsynonimous (dN) substitutions, we have documented at least two different introductions of DENV-3 into the city and detected 10 polymorphic codon sites under significant positive selection (dN/dS > 1) and 8 under significant purifying selection (dN/dS < 1). We found several polymorphic amino acid coding sites in the envelope (15), NS1 (17), NS2A (11), and NS5 (24) genes, which suggests that these genes may be experiencing relatively recent adaptive changes. Furthermore, some polymorphisms correlated with changes in the immunogenicity of several epitopes. Our study highlights the existence of significant and informative DENV variability at the spatio-temporal scale of an urban outbreak.

Heterogeneity in vaccination coverage explains the size and occurrence of measles epidemics in German surveillance data

The objective of this study was to characterize empirically the association between vaccination coverage and the size and occurrence of measles epidemics in Germany. In order to achieve this we analysed data routinely collected by the Robert Koch Institute, which comprise the weekly number of reported measles cases at all ages as well as estimates of vaccination coverage at the average age of entry into the school system. Coverage levels within each federal state of Germany are incorporated into a multivariate time-series model for infectious disease counts, which captures occasional outbreaks by means of an autoregressive component. The observed incidence pattern of measles for all ages is best described by using the log proportion of unvaccinated school starters in the autoregressive component of the model.

Reconstructing the Timing and Dispersion Routes of HIV-1 Subtype B Epidemics in The Caribbean and Central America: A Phylogenetic Story.

The Caribbean and Central America are among the regions with highest HIV-1B prevalence worldwide. Despite of this high virus burden, little is known about the timing and the migration patterns of HIV-1B in these regions. Migration is one of the major processes shaping the genetic structure of virus populations. Thus, reconstruction of epidemiological network may contribute to understand HIV-1B evolution and reduce virus prevalence. We have investigated the spatio-temporal dynamics of the HIV-1B epidemic in The Caribbean and Central America using 1,610 HIV-1B partial pol sequences from 13 Caribbean and 5 Central American countries. Timing of HIV-1B introduction and virus evolutionary rates, as well as the spatial genetic structure of the HIV-1B populations and the virus migration patterns were inferred. Results revealed that in The Caribbean and Central America most of the HIV-1B variability was generated since the 80 s. At odds with previous data suggesting that Haiti was the origin of the epidemic in The Caribbean, our reconstruction indicated that the virus could have been disseminated from Puerto Rico and Antigua. These two countries connected two distinguishable migration areas corresponding to the (mainly Spanish-colonized) Easter and (mainly British-colonized) Western islands, which indicates that virus migration patterns are determined by geographical barriers and by the movement of human populations among culturally related countries. Similar factors shaped the migration of HIV-1B in Central America. The HIV-1B population was significantly structured according to the country of origin, and the genetic diversity in each country was associated with the virus prevalence in both regions, which suggests that virus populations evolve mainly through genetic drift. Thus, our work contributes to the understanding of HIV-1B evolution and dispersion pattern in the Americas, and its relationship with the geography of the area and the movements of human populations.

Medical & physical memoirs, containing, among other subjects, a particular enquiry into the origin and nature of the late pestilential epidemics of the United States /

Mode of access: Internet.

The epidemics of the middle ages.

"Chronological survey": p. [306]-312.

An essay on the epidemics of the winters of 1813 and 1814, in Talbot & Queen-Anne's counties in the state of Maryland ...

Dedicated to Noah Webster.

Convulsive ergotism: epidemics of the serotonin syndrome?

Between 1085 and 1927, epidemics of convulsive ergotism were widespread east of the Rhine in Europe due to consumption of grain contaminated with ergot, which is produced by the fungus Claviceps purpurea. West of the Rhine, consumption of ergot-contaminated food caused epidemics of gangrenous ergotism. The clinical features of convulsive ergotism-muscle twitching and spasms, changes in mental state, hallucinations, sweating, and fever lasting for several weeks-suggest serotonergic overstimulation of the CNS (ie, the serotonin syndrome). The ergot alkaloids are serotonin agonists. Dihydroergotamine binds to serotonin receptors in the dorsal horn of the spinal cord, which is the site of neuropathological changes in convulsive ergotism. Dihydroergotamine given to human beings can cause the serotonin syndrome. Ergots produced by different strains of Claviceps purpurea, and those growing in different soils, may have different ergot alkaloid compositions. An alkaloid, present in high concentrations in ergots from east of the Rhine, may have caused convulsive ergotism at a circulating concentration insufficient to produce peripheral ischaemia. The serotonin syndrome may, therefore, have been a public-health problem long before it was recognised as a complication of modem psychopharmacology.

Primary aldosteronism - actual epidemics or false alarm?

The prevalence of "primary aldosteronism" (PAL) cannot be precisely determined at this time, given 1) lack of a universally accepted definition, and 2) normotensive as well as normokalemic phases in the evolutionary development of a disease eventually characterized by hypertension and hypokalemia. The exception is fully genetically characterised forms such as glucocorticoid-suppressible hyperaldosteronism, the true prevalence of which could be proven today by universal screening using a single blood sample, but this is neither practical nor appropriate. Controversy has arisen regarding the rareness, or otherwise, of PAL because of 1) rediscovery in the last 12 years of the normokalemic phase described by Conn, 2) application of widely available methods for measurement of aldosterone and renin to "screening", 3) variable quality of these methods, and of their application, and 4) lack of the necessary "diagnostic", in addition to "screening", tests in some studies. PAL is significantly more common than previously thought, and a very important potentially curable form of hypertension. Early diagnosis and specific treatment avoids morbidity. The current focus on increased detection is essential, and will help to resolve the question of prevalence.

Progmosis:evaluating risky individual behavior during epidemics using mobile network data

The possibility to analyze, quantify and forecast epidemic outbreaks is fundamental when devising effective disease containment strategies. Policy makers are faced with the intricate task of drafting realistically implementable policies that strike a balance between risk management and cost. Two major techniques policy makers have at their disposal are: epidemic modeling and contact tracing. Models are used to forecast the evolution of the epidemic both globally and regionally, while contact tracing is used to reconstruct the chain of people who have been potentially infected, so that they can be tested, isolated and treated immediately. However, both techniques might provide limited information, especially during an already advanced crisis when the need for action is urgent. In this paper we propose an alternative approach that goes beyond epidemic modeling and contact tracing, and leverages behavioral data generated by mobile carrier networks to evaluate contagion risk on a per-user basis. The individual risk represents the loss incurred by not isolating or treating a specific person, both in terms of how likely it is for this person to spread the disease as well as how many secondary infections it will cause. To this aim, we develop a model, named Progmosis, which quantifies this risk based on movement and regional aggregated statistics about infection rates. We develop and release an open-source tool that calculates this risk based on cellular network events. We simulate a realistic epidemic scenarios, based on an Ebola virus outbreak; we find that gradually restricting the mobility of a subset of individuals reduces the number of infected people after 30 days by 24%.

Excess pneumonia and influenza hospitalizations associated with influenza epidemics in Portugal from 1998 to 2015

In Portugal there is no severe acute respiratory infection surveillance system in place. Estimation of influenza burden has been accessed using hospital discharge database that covers the mainland Portuguese population. The objective of this study was to estimate the excess of pneumonia or influenza (P&I) hospitalizations during influenza epidemics from seasons 1998-99 to 2014-15 in mainland Portugal.

Sub-epidemics explain localized high prevalence of reduced susceptibility to Rilpivirine in treatment-naive HIV-1-infected patients: subtype and geographic compartmentalization of baseline resistance mutations

This Open Access article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Noncommercial License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/) which permits any noncommercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author(s) and the source are credited.

Genetic structure and mating type analysis of the Pyricularia oryzae population causing widespread epidemics in southern Brazil.

Blast is a major disease of rice in Brazil, the largest rice-producing country outside Asia. This study aimed to assess the genetic structure and mating-type frequency in a contemporary Pyricularia oryzae population, which caused widespread epidemics during the 2012/13 season in the Brazilian lowland subtropical region. Symptomatic leaves and panicles were sampled at flooded rice fields in the states of Rio Grande do Sul (RS, 34 fields) and Santa Catarina (SC, 21 fields). The polymorphism at ten simple sequence repeats (SSR or microsatellite) loci and the presence of MAT1-1 or MAT1-2 idiomorphs were assessed in a population comprised of 187 isolates. Only the MAT1-2 idiomorph was found and 162 genotypes were identified by the SSR analysis. A discriminant analysis of principal components (DAPC) of SSR data resolved four genetic groups, which were strongly associated with the cultivar of origin of the isolates. There was high level of genotypic diversity and moderate level of gene diversity regardless whether isolates were grouped in subpopulations based on geographic region, cultivar host or cultivar within region. While regional subpopulations were weakly differentiated, high genetic differentiation was found among subpopulations comprised of isolates from different cultivars. The data suggest that the rice blast pathogen population in southern Brazil is comprised of clonal lineages that are adapting to specific cultivar hosts. Farmers should avoid the use of susceptible cultivars over large areas and breeders should focus at enlarging the genetic basis of new cultivars.