The dependence of wintertime Mediterranean precipitation on the atmospheric circulation response to climate change

Climate models indicate a future wintertime precipitation reduction in the Mediterranean region but there is large uncertainty in the amplitude of the projected change. We analyse CMIP5 climate model output to quantify the role of atmospheric circulation in the Mediterranean precipitation change. It is found that a simple circulation index, i.e. the 850 hPa zonal wind (U850) in North Africa, well describes the year to year fluctuations in the area-averaged Mediterranean precipitation, with positive (i.e. westerly) U850 anomalies in North Africa being associated with positive precipitation anomalies. Under climate change, U850 in North Africa and the Mediterranean precipitation are both projected to decrease consistently with the relationship found in the inter-annual variability. This enables us to estimate that about 85% of the CMIP5 mean precipitation response and 80% of the variance in the inter-model spread are related to changes in the atmospheric circulation. In contrast, there is no significant correlation between the mean precipitation response and the global-mean surface warming across the models. It follows that the uncertainty in cold-season Mediterranean precipitation projection will not be narrowed unless the uncertainty in the atmospheric circulation response is reduced.

Mutually assured destruction or co-dependence? The G20 and the UN

The G20 forum has acted to crystallise important changes in the architecture of global governance emerging since the 1970s. This has seen the locus of power shift away from the United Nations (UN) System as smaller and poorer states become increasingly adept at exercising their power within UN structures. Yet it is too simple to set the G20 against the UN, for example as minilateralism versus multilateralism. While the UN seems increasingly constrained and less relevant, it is not about to disappear. Moreover, we argue there are two significant obstacles to the G20 claiming the mantle of dominant global governance institution. First, that minilateralism is still a form of multilateralism, and ultimately subject to the same problems with the generation of consensus if extended, as in the G20, to include sufficiently diverse state members for a claim of legitimacy. Second, its emergence from the Global Financial Crisis and historical focus on financial governance means its agenda is excessively narrow at a time when food and environmental crises command similar global political significance. We conclude by considering some of the different elements of the emerging G20/UN dynamic, and whether this emerging dialectic can enhance prospects for wide ranging reforms to global trade, finance and economic structures that are currently incapable of functioning sustainably or preventing wide scale famine.

Estuary environmental flows assessment methodology for Victoria

This report sets out a method to determine the environmental water requirements of estuaries in Victoria. The estuary environmental flows assessment method (EEFAM) is a standard methodology which can be applied consistently across Victorian estuaries.
The primary objective of EEFAM is to define a flow regime to maintain or enhance the ecological health of an estuary. The method is used to inform Victorian water resource planning processes.
The output of EEFAM is a recommended flow regime for estuaries. This recommendation is developed from the known dependence of the estuary’s flora, fauna, biogeochemical and geomorphological features on the flow regime. EEFAM is an evidence-based methodology. This bottom-up or ‘building block’ approach conforms to the asset-based approach of the Victorian River Health Strategy and regional river health strategies.
EEFAM is based on and expands on FLOWS, the Victorian method for determining environmental water requirements in rivers. The list of tasks has been modified and re-ordered in EEFAM to reflect environmental and management issues specific to estuaries. EEFAM and FLOWS can be applied
simultaneously to a river and its estuary as part of a whole-of-system approach to environmental flow requirements. Like the FLOWS method, EEFAM is modular, and additional components can be readily incorporated.

Environmental coordination chemistry: Binary systems comprising some bivalent cations and monocarboxylates in aqueous solution. Ionic medium effects on equilibrium constants

The molar single activity coefficients associated with propionate ion (Pr) have been determined at 25 degrees C and ionic strengths comprised between 0.300 and 3.00 M, adjusted with NaClO4, as background electrolyte. The investigation was carried out potentiometrically by using a second class Hg/Hg2Pr2 electrode. It was found that the dependence of propionate activity coefficients as a function of ionic strength (I) can be assessed through the following empirical equation: log y(Pr) = -0.185 I-3/2 + 0.104 I-2. Next, simple equations relating stoichiometric protonation constants of several monocarboxylates and formation constants associated with 1:1 complexes involving some bivalent cations and selected monocarboxylates, in aqueous solution, at 25 degrees C, as a function of ionic strength were derived, allowing the interconversion of parameters from one ionic strength to another, up to I = 3.00 M. In addition, thermodynamic formation constants as well as parameters associated with activity coefficients of the complex species in the equilibria are estimated. The body of results shows that the proposed calculation procedure is very consistent with critically selected experimental data.

The North-South dimension of the environmental and cleaner technology industries

Includes bibliography

Comparing environmental impacts of native and introduced freshwater prawn farming in Brazil and the influence of better effluent management using LCA

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Educational levels and the functional dependence of ischemic stroke survivors

We evaluated the functional dependence of stroke survivors from the Study of Stroke Mortality and Morbidity, using the Rankin Scale. Out of 355 ischemic stroke survivors (with a mean age of 67.9 years), 40% had some functional dependence at 28 days and 34.4% had some functional dependence at 6 months. Most predictors of physical dependence were identified at 28 days. These predictors were: low levels of education [illiterate vs. >= 8 years of education, multivariate odds ratio (OR) = 3.7; 95% confidence interval (95%CI): 1.60-8.54] and anatomical stroke location (total anterior circulation infarct, OR = 16.9; 95%CI: 2.93-97.49). Low levels of education and ischemic brain injury influenced functional dependence in these stroke survivors. Our findings reinforce the necessity of developing strategies for the rehabilitation of stroke patients, more especially in formulating specific strategies for care and treatment of stroke survivors with low socioeconomic status.

Speciation of tetravalent plutonium in contact with humic substances and kaolinite under environmental conditions

Plutonium represents the major contribution to the radiotoxicity of spent nuclear fuel over storage times of up to several hundred thousand years. The speciation of plutonium in aquifer systems is important in order to assess the risks of high-level nuclear waste disposal and to acquire a deep knowledge of the mobilization and immobilization behavior of plutonium. In aqueous solutions, plutonium can coexist in four oxidation states and each one of them has different chemical and physical behavior. Tetravalent plutonium is the most abundant under natural conditions. Therefore, detailed speciation studies of tetravalent plutonium in contact with humic substances (HS) and kaolinite as a model clay mineral have been performed in this work. Plutonium is present in the environment at an ultratrace level. Therefore, speciation of Pu at the ultratrace level is mandatory. Capillary electrophoresis (CE) coupled to resonance ionization mass spectrometry (RIMS) was used as a new speciation method. CE-RIMS enables to improve the detection limit for plutonium species by 2 to 3 orders of magnitude compared to the previously developed CE-ICP-MS. For understanding the behavior of Pu(IV) in aqueous systems, redox reactions, complexation, and sorption behavior of plutonium were studied. The redox behavior of plutonium in contact with humic acid (HA) and fulvic acid (FA) was investigated. A relatively fast reduction of Pu(VI) in contact with HS was observed. It was mainly reduced to Pu(IV) and Pu(III) within a couple of weeks. The time dependence of the Pu(IV) complexation with Aldrich HA was investigated and a complex constant (logßLC) between 6.4 - 8.4 of Pu(IV) was determined by means of ultrafiltration taking into account the loading capacity (LC). The sorption of tetravalent plutonium onto kaolinite was investigated as a function of pH in batch experiments under aerobic and anaerobic conditions. The sorption edge was found at about pH = 1 and a maximum sorption at around pH = 8.5. In the presence of CO2 at pH > 8.5, the sorption of plutonium was decreased probably due to the formation of soluble carbonate complexes. For comparison, the sorption of Th(IV) onto kaolinite was also investigated and consistent results were found. The Pu(IV) sorption onto kaolinite was studied by XANES and EXAFS at pH 1, 4, 9 and the sorbed species on kaolinite surface was Pu(IV). Depending on the pH, only 1 - 10 % of the sorbed plutonium is desorbed from kaolinite and released into a fresh solution at the same pH value. Furthermore, the sorption of HS onto kaolinite was studied as a function of pH at varying concentrations of HS, as a prerequisite to understand the more complex ternary system. The sorption of HA onto kaolinite was found to be higher than that of FA. The investigation of the ternary systems (plutonium-kaolinite-humic substances) is performed as a function of pH, concentration of HS, and the sequences of adding the reactants. The presence of HS strongly influences the sorption of Pu(IV) onto kaolinite over the entire pH range. For comparison, the influence of HS on the sorption of Th(IV) onto kaolinite was also investigated and a good agreement with the results of Pu(IV) was obtained.

Technological trajectories and environmental policy: the transformation of the automobile

This thesis aims to fill the gap in the literature by examining the relationship between technological trajectories and environmental policy in the automotive industry, focusing on the role of environmental policies in unlocking the industry from fossil fuel path-dependence. It first explores the inducement mechanism that underpins the interaction between environmental policy and green technological advances, investigating under what conditions the European environmental transport policy portfolio and the intrinsic characteristics of assignees' knowledge boost worldwide green patent production. Subsequently, the thesis empirically analyses the dynamics of technological knowledge involved in technological trajectories assessing evolution patterns such as variation, selection and retention, in order to study the impact of policy implementation on technological knowledge related to electric and hybrid vehicle technologies. Finally, the thesis sheds light on the drivers that encourage a shift from incumbent internal combustion engine technologies towards low-emission vehicle technologies. This analysis tests whether tax-inclusive fuel prices and technological proximity between technological fields induce a shift from non-environmental inventions to environmentally friendly inventive activities and if they impact the competition between alternative vehicle technologies. The findings provide insights into the effectiveness of environmental policy in triggering inventive activities related to the development of alternative vehicle technologies. In addition, there is evidence that environmental policy redirects technological efforts towards a sustainable path and impacts the competition between low-emission vehicles.

Path Dependence in Decision-Making Processes: Exploring the Impact of Complexity under Increasing Returns

The development of path-dependent processes basically refers to positive feedback in terms of increasing returns as the main driving forces of such processes. Furthermore, path dependence can be affected by context factors, such as different degrees of complexity. Up to now, it has been unclear whether and how different settings of complexity impact path-dependent processes and the probability of lock-in. In this paper we investigate the relationship between environmental complexity and path dependence by means of an experimental study. By focusing on the mode of information load and decision quality in chronological sequences, the study explores the impact of complexity on decision-making processes. The results contribute to both the development of path-dependence theory and a better understanding of decision-making behavior under conditions of positive feedback. Since previous path research has mostly applied qualitative case-study research and (to a minor part) simulations, this paper makes a further contribution by establishing an experimental approach for research on path dependence.

Environmental correlates of species rank − abundance distributions in global drylands

Theoretical models predict lognormal species abundance distributions (SADs) in stable and productive environments, with log-series SADs in less stable, dispersal driven communities. We studied patterns of relative species abundances of perennial vascular plants in global dryland communities to: (i) assess the influence of climatic and soil characteristics on the observed SADs, (ii) infer how environmental variability influences relative abundances, and (iii) evaluate how colonisation dynamics and environmental filters shape abundance distributions. We fitted lognormal and log-series SADs to 91 sites containing at least 15 species of perennial vascular plants. The dependence of species relative abundances on soil and climate variables was assessed using general linear models. Irrespective of habitat type and latitude, the majority of the SADs (70.3%) were best described by a lognormal distribution. Lognormal SADs were associated with low annual precipitation, higher aridity, high soil carbon content, and higher variability of climate variables and soil nitrate. Our results do not corroborate models predicting the prevalence of log-series SADs in dryland communities. As lognormal SADs were particularly associated with sites with drier conditions and a higher environmental variability, we reject models linking lognormality to environmental stability and high productivity conditions. Instead our results point to the prevalence of lognormal SADs in heterogeneous environments, allowing for more evenly distributed plant communities, or in stressful ecosystems, which are generally shaped by strong habitat filters and limited colonisation. This suggests that drylands may be resilient to environmental changes because the many species with intermediate relative abundances could take over ecosystem functioning if the environment becomes suboptimal for dominant species.

Seasonal Variability in the Bacteriolytic Capacity of the Deposit Feeder Arenicola Marina: Environmental Correlates

Although deposit-feeding macrofauna consume and digest sedimentary bacteria, it is unclear whether feeding rates and digestion efficiencies are high enough to significantly impact the composition and abundance of bacteria in marine sediments. It is likely that both feeding rates and efficiency of digestion vary markedly through space and time. We used a turbidimetric assay to compare the rate of bacteriolysis by digestive fluids collected seasonally from the deposit-feeding polychaete Arenicola marina. Under standardized, experimental conditions, bacteriolytic rates represent concentrations of lytic agents. This concentration was found to vary significantly throughout the year (p = 0.001), showing greater than a 2x range. Lytic agent concentration was positively correlated with bioavailable amino acid concentrations in the surface sediment (r = 0.85, p = 0.03) but showed no apparent relationship to other proxies for food resources (e.g, chl a), sediment temperature, or gut throughput time. In vitro, temperature has been shown to have a strong positive influence on bacteriolytic rate. Temperature has no influence, however, on the in situ concentration of lytic agent in gut fluids, thus it appears that compensation for this temperature dependence is unimportant. These findings, combined with previous kinetics studies with A. marina gut fluids, predict that the quantitative influence of deposit feeding on the microbial ecology of sediments will exhibit clear seasonal variation.