The dependence of wintertime Mediterranean precipitation on the atmospheric circulation response to climate change

Climate models indicate a future wintertime precipitation reduction in the Mediterranean region but there is large uncertainty in the amplitude of the projected change. We analyse CMIP5 climate model output to quantify the role of atmospheric circulation in the Mediterranean precipitation change. It is found that a simple circulation index, i.e. the 850 hPa zonal wind (U850) in North Africa, well describes the year to year fluctuations in the area-averaged Mediterranean precipitation, with positive (i.e. westerly) U850 anomalies in North Africa being associated with positive precipitation anomalies. Under climate change, U850 in North Africa and the Mediterranean precipitation are both projected to decrease consistently with the relationship found in the inter-annual variability. This enables us to estimate that about 85% of the CMIP5 mean precipitation response and 80% of the variance in the inter-model spread are related to changes in the atmospheric circulation. In contrast, there is no significant correlation between the mean precipitation response and the global-mean surface warming across the models. It follows that the uncertainty in cold-season Mediterranean precipitation projection will not be narrowed unless the uncertainty in the atmospheric circulation response is reduced.

Environmental coordination chemistry: Binary systems comprising some bivalent cations and monocarboxylates in aqueous solution. Ionic medium effects on equilibrium constants

The molar single activity coefficients associated with propionate ion (Pr) have been determined at 25 degrees C and ionic strengths comprised between 0.300 and 3.00 M, adjusted with NaClO4, as background electrolyte. The investigation was carried out potentiometrically by using a second class Hg/Hg2Pr2 electrode. It was found that the dependence of propionate activity coefficients as a function of ionic strength (I) can be assessed through the following empirical equation: log y(Pr) = -0.185 I-3/2 + 0.104 I-2. Next, simple equations relating stoichiometric protonation constants of several monocarboxylates and formation constants associated with 1:1 complexes involving some bivalent cations and selected monocarboxylates, in aqueous solution, at 25 degrees C, as a function of ionic strength were derived, allowing the interconversion of parameters from one ionic strength to another, up to I = 3.00 M. In addition, thermodynamic formation constants as well as parameters associated with activity coefficients of the complex species in the equilibria are estimated. The body of results shows that the proposed calculation procedure is very consistent with critically selected experimental data.

The North-South dimension of the environmental and cleaner technology industries

Includes bibliography

Comparing environmental impacts of native and introduced freshwater prawn farming in Brazil and the influence of better effluent management using LCA

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Educational levels and the functional dependence of ischemic stroke survivors

We evaluated the functional dependence of stroke survivors from the Study of Stroke Mortality and Morbidity, using the Rankin Scale. Out of 355 ischemic stroke survivors (with a mean age of 67.9 years), 40% had some functional dependence at 28 days and 34.4% had some functional dependence at 6 months. Most predictors of physical dependence were identified at 28 days. These predictors were: low levels of education [illiterate vs. >= 8 years of education, multivariate odds ratio (OR) = 3.7; 95% confidence interval (95%CI): 1.60-8.54] and anatomical stroke location (total anterior circulation infarct, OR = 16.9; 95%CI: 2.93-97.49). Low levels of education and ischemic brain injury influenced functional dependence in these stroke survivors. Our findings reinforce the necessity of developing strategies for the rehabilitation of stroke patients, more especially in formulating specific strategies for care and treatment of stroke survivors with low socioeconomic status.

Speciation of tetravalent plutonium in contact with humic substances and kaolinite under environmental conditions

Plutonium represents the major contribution to the radiotoxicity of spent nuclear fuel over storage times of up to several hundred thousand years. The speciation of plutonium in aquifer systems is important in order to assess the risks of high-level nuclear waste disposal and to acquire a deep knowledge of the mobilization and immobilization behavior of plutonium. In aqueous solutions, plutonium can coexist in four oxidation states and each one of them has different chemical and physical behavior. Tetravalent plutonium is the most abundant under natural conditions. Therefore, detailed speciation studies of tetravalent plutonium in contact with humic substances (HS) and kaolinite as a model clay mineral have been performed in this work. Plutonium is present in the environment at an ultratrace level. Therefore, speciation of Pu at the ultratrace level is mandatory. Capillary electrophoresis (CE) coupled to resonance ionization mass spectrometry (RIMS) was used as a new speciation method. CE-RIMS enables to improve the detection limit for plutonium species by 2 to 3 orders of magnitude compared to the previously developed CE-ICP-MS. For understanding the behavior of Pu(IV) in aqueous systems, redox reactions, complexation, and sorption behavior of plutonium were studied. The redox behavior of plutonium in contact with humic acid (HA) and fulvic acid (FA) was investigated. A relatively fast reduction of Pu(VI) in contact with HS was observed. It was mainly reduced to Pu(IV) and Pu(III) within a couple of weeks. The time dependence of the Pu(IV) complexation with Aldrich HA was investigated and a complex constant (logßLC) between 6.4 - 8.4 of Pu(IV) was determined by means of ultrafiltration taking into account the loading capacity (LC). The sorption of tetravalent plutonium onto kaolinite was investigated as a function of pH in batch experiments under aerobic and anaerobic conditions. The sorption edge was found at about pH = 1 and a maximum sorption at around pH = 8.5. In the presence of CO2 at pH > 8.5, the sorption of plutonium was decreased probably due to the formation of soluble carbonate complexes. For comparison, the sorption of Th(IV) onto kaolinite was also investigated and consistent results were found. The Pu(IV) sorption onto kaolinite was studied by XANES and EXAFS at pH 1, 4, 9 and the sorbed species on kaolinite surface was Pu(IV). Depending on the pH, only 1 - 10 % of the sorbed plutonium is desorbed from kaolinite and released into a fresh solution at the same pH value. Furthermore, the sorption of HS onto kaolinite was studied as a function of pH at varying concentrations of HS, as a prerequisite to understand the more complex ternary system. The sorption of HA onto kaolinite was found to be higher than that of FA. The investigation of the ternary systems (plutonium-kaolinite-humic substances) is performed as a function of pH, concentration of HS, and the sequences of adding the reactants. The presence of HS strongly influences the sorption of Pu(IV) onto kaolinite over the entire pH range. For comparison, the influence of HS on the sorption of Th(IV) onto kaolinite was also investigated and a good agreement with the results of Pu(IV) was obtained.

Technological trajectories and environmental policy: the transformation of the automobile

This thesis aims to fill the gap in the literature by examining the relationship between technological trajectories and environmental policy in the automotive industry, focusing on the role of environmental policies in unlocking the industry from fossil fuel path-dependence. It first explores the inducement mechanism that underpins the interaction between environmental policy and green technological advances, investigating under what conditions the European environmental transport policy portfolio and the intrinsic characteristics of assignees' knowledge boost worldwide green patent production. Subsequently, the thesis empirically analyses the dynamics of technological knowledge involved in technological trajectories assessing evolution patterns such as variation, selection and retention, in order to study the impact of policy implementation on technological knowledge related to electric and hybrid vehicle technologies. Finally, the thesis sheds light on the drivers that encourage a shift from incumbent internal combustion engine technologies towards low-emission vehicle technologies. This analysis tests whether tax-inclusive fuel prices and technological proximity between technological fields induce a shift from non-environmental inventions to environmentally friendly inventive activities and if they impact the competition between alternative vehicle technologies. The findings provide insights into the effectiveness of environmental policy in triggering inventive activities related to the development of alternative vehicle technologies. In addition, there is evidence that environmental policy redirects technological efforts towards a sustainable path and impacts the competition between low-emission vehicles.

Path Dependence in Decision-Making Processes: Exploring the Impact of Complexity under Increasing Returns

The development of path-dependent processes basically refers to positive feedback in terms of increasing returns as the main driving forces of such processes. Furthermore, path dependence can be affected by context factors, such as different degrees of complexity. Up to now, it has been unclear whether and how different settings of complexity impact path-dependent processes and the probability of lock-in. In this paper we investigate the relationship between environmental complexity and path dependence by means of an experimental study. By focusing on the mode of information load and decision quality in chronological sequences, the study explores the impact of complexity on decision-making processes. The results contribute to both the development of path-dependence theory and a better understanding of decision-making behavior under conditions of positive feedback. Since previous path research has mostly applied qualitative case-study research and (to a minor part) simulations, this paper makes a further contribution by establishing an experimental approach for research on path dependence.

Environmental correlates of species rank − abundance distributions in global drylands

Theoretical models predict lognormal species abundance distributions (SADs) in stable and productive environments, with log-series SADs in less stable, dispersal driven communities. We studied patterns of relative species abundances of perennial vascular plants in global dryland communities to: (i) assess the influence of climatic and soil characteristics on the observed SADs, (ii) infer how environmental variability influences relative abundances, and (iii) evaluate how colonisation dynamics and environmental filters shape abundance distributions. We fitted lognormal and log-series SADs to 91 sites containing at least 15 species of perennial vascular plants. The dependence of species relative abundances on soil and climate variables was assessed using general linear models. Irrespective of habitat type and latitude, the majority of the SADs (70.3%) were best described by a lognormal distribution. Lognormal SADs were associated with low annual precipitation, higher aridity, high soil carbon content, and higher variability of climate variables and soil nitrate. Our results do not corroborate models predicting the prevalence of log-series SADs in dryland communities. As lognormal SADs were particularly associated with sites with drier conditions and a higher environmental variability, we reject models linking lognormality to environmental stability and high productivity conditions. Instead our results point to the prevalence of lognormal SADs in heterogeneous environments, allowing for more evenly distributed plant communities, or in stressful ecosystems, which are generally shaped by strong habitat filters and limited colonisation. This suggests that drylands may be resilient to environmental changes because the many species with intermediate relative abundances could take over ecosystem functioning if the environment becomes suboptimal for dominant species.

Seasonal Variability in the Bacteriolytic Capacity of the Deposit Feeder Arenicola Marina: Environmental Correlates

Although deposit-feeding macrofauna consume and digest sedimentary bacteria, it is unclear whether feeding rates and digestion efficiencies are high enough to significantly impact the composition and abundance of bacteria in marine sediments. It is likely that both feeding rates and efficiency of digestion vary markedly through space and time. We used a turbidimetric assay to compare the rate of bacteriolysis by digestive fluids collected seasonally from the deposit-feeding polychaete Arenicola marina. Under standardized, experimental conditions, bacteriolytic rates represent concentrations of lytic agents. This concentration was found to vary significantly throughout the year (p = 0.001), showing greater than a 2x range. Lytic agent concentration was positively correlated with bioavailable amino acid concentrations in the surface sediment (r = 0.85, p = 0.03) but showed no apparent relationship to other proxies for food resources (e.g, chl a), sediment temperature, or gut throughput time. In vitro, temperature has been shown to have a strong positive influence on bacteriolytic rate. Temperature has no influence, however, on the in situ concentration of lytic agent in gut fluids, thus it appears that compensation for this temperature dependence is unimportant. These findings, combined with previous kinetics studies with A. marina gut fluids, predict that the quantitative influence of deposit feeding on the microbial ecology of sediments will exhibit clear seasonal variation.

Proactive and reactive thermal aware optimization techniques to minimize the environmental impact of data centers

Los Centros de Datos se encuentran actualmente en cualquier sector de la economía mundial. Están compuestos por miles de servidores, dando servicio a los usuarios de forma global, las 24 horas del día y los 365 días del año. Durante los últimos años, las aplicaciones del ámbito de la e-Ciencia, como la e-Salud o las Ciudades Inteligentes han experimentado un desarrollo muy significativo. La necesidad de manejar de forma eficiente las necesidades de cómputo de aplicaciones de nueva generación, junto con la creciente demanda de recursos en aplicaciones tradicionales, han facilitado el rápido crecimiento y la proliferación de los Centros de Datos. El principal inconveniente de este aumento de capacidad ha sido el rápido y dramático incremento del consumo energético de estas infraestructuras. En 2010, la factura eléctrica de los Centros de Datos representaba el 1.3% del consumo eléctrico mundial. Sólo en el año 2012, el consumo de potencia de los Centros de Datos creció un 63%, alcanzando los 38GW. En 2013 se estimó un crecimiento de otro 17%, hasta llegar a los 43GW. Además, los Centros de Datos son responsables de más del 2% del total de emisiones de dióxido de carbono a la atmósfera. Esta tesis doctoral se enfrenta al problema energético proponiendo técnicas proactivas y reactivas conscientes de la temperatura y de la energía, que contribuyen a tener Centros de Datos más eficientes. Este trabajo desarrolla modelos de energía y utiliza el conocimiento sobre la demanda energética de la carga de trabajo a ejecutar y de los recursos de computación y refrigeración del Centro de Datos para optimizar el consumo. Además, los Centros de Datos son considerados como un elemento crucial dentro del marco de la aplicación ejecutada, optimizando no sólo el consumo del Centro de Datos sino el consumo energético global de la aplicación. Los principales componentes del consumo en los Centros de Datos son la potencia de computación utilizada por los equipos de IT, y la refrigeración necesaria para mantener los servidores dentro de un rango de temperatura de trabajo que asegure su correcto funcionamiento. Debido a la relación cúbica entre la velocidad de los ventiladores y el consumo de los mismos, las soluciones basadas en el sobre-aprovisionamiento de aire frío al servidor generalmente tienen como resultado ineficiencias energéticas. Por otro lado, temperaturas más elevadas en el procesador llevan a un consumo de fugas mayor, debido a la relación exponencial del consumo de fugas con la temperatura. Además, las características de la carga de trabajo y las políticas de asignación de recursos tienen un impacto importante en los balances entre corriente de fugas y consumo de refrigeración. La primera gran contribución de este trabajo es el desarrollo de modelos de potencia y temperatura que permiten describes estos balances entre corriente de fugas y refrigeración; así como la propuesta de estrategias para minimizar el consumo del servidor por medio de la asignación conjunta de refrigeración y carga desde una perspectiva multivariable. Cuando escalamos a nivel del Centro de Datos, observamos un comportamiento similar en términos del balance entre corrientes de fugas y refrigeración. Conforme aumenta la temperatura de la sala, mejora la eficiencia de la refrigeración. Sin embargo, este incremente de la temperatura de sala provoca un aumento en la temperatura de la CPU y, por tanto, también del consumo de fugas. Además, la dinámica de la sala tiene un comportamiento muy desigual, no equilibrado, debido a la asignación de carga y a la heterogeneidad en el equipamiento de IT. La segunda contribución de esta tesis es la propuesta de técnicas de asigación conscientes de la temperatura y heterogeneidad que permiten optimizar conjuntamente la asignación de tareas y refrigeración a los servidores. Estas estrategias necesitan estar respaldadas por modelos flexibles, que puedan trabajar en tiempo real, para describir el sistema desde un nivel de abstracción alto. Dentro del ámbito de las aplicaciones de nueva generación, las decisiones tomadas en el nivel de aplicación pueden tener un impacto dramático en el consumo energético de niveles de abstracción menores, como por ejemplo, en el Centro de Datos. Es importante considerar las relaciones entre todos los agentes computacionales implicados en el problema, de forma que puedan cooperar para conseguir el objetivo común de reducir el coste energético global del sistema. La tercera contribución de esta tesis es el desarrollo de optimizaciones energéticas para la aplicación global por medio de la evaluación de los costes de ejecutar parte del procesado necesario en otros niveles de abstracción, que van desde los nodos hasta el Centro de Datos, por medio de técnicas de balanceo de carga. Como resumen, el trabajo presentado en esta tesis lleva a cabo contribuciones en el modelado y optimización consciente del consumo por fugas y la refrigeración de servidores; el modelado de los Centros de Datos y el desarrollo de políticas de asignación conscientes de la heterogeneidad; y desarrolla mecanismos para la optimización energética de aplicaciones de nueva generación desde varios niveles de abstracción. ABSTRACT Data centers are easily found in every sector of the worldwide economy. They consist of tens of thousands of servers, serving millions of users globally and 24-7. In the last years, e-Science applications such e-Health or Smart Cities have experienced a significant development. The need to deal efficiently with the computational needs of next-generation applications together with the increasing demand for higher resources in traditional applications has facilitated the rapid proliferation and growing of data centers. A drawback to this capacity growth has been the rapid increase of the energy consumption of these facilities. In 2010, data center electricity represented 1.3% of all the electricity use in the world. In year 2012 alone, global data center power demand grew 63% to 38GW. A further rise of 17% to 43GW was estimated in 2013. Moreover, data centers are responsible for more than 2% of total carbon dioxide emissions. This PhD Thesis addresses the energy challenge by proposing proactive and reactive thermal and energy-aware optimization techniques that contribute to place data centers on a more scalable curve. This work develops energy models and uses the knowledge about the energy demand of the workload to be executed and the computational and cooling resources available at data center to optimize energy consumption. Moreover, data centers are considered as a crucial element within their application framework, optimizing not only the energy consumption of the facility, but the global energy consumption of the application. The main contributors to the energy consumption in a data center are the computing power drawn by IT equipment and the cooling power needed to keep the servers within a certain temperature range that ensures safe operation. Because of the cubic relation of fan power with fan speed, solutions based on over-provisioning cold air into the server usually lead to inefficiencies. On the other hand, higher chip temperatures lead to higher leakage power because of the exponential dependence of leakage on temperature. Moreover, workload characteristics as well as allocation policies also have an important impact on the leakage-cooling tradeoffs. The first key contribution of this work is the development of power and temperature models that accurately describe the leakage-cooling tradeoffs at the server level, and the proposal of strategies to minimize server energy via joint cooling and workload management from a multivariate perspective. When scaling to the data center level, a similar behavior in terms of leakage-temperature tradeoffs can be observed. As room temperature raises, the efficiency of data room cooling units improves. However, as we increase room temperature, CPU temperature raises and so does leakage power. Moreover, the thermal dynamics of a data room exhibit unbalanced patterns due to both the workload allocation and the heterogeneity of computing equipment. The second main contribution is the proposal of thermal- and heterogeneity-aware workload management techniques that jointly optimize the allocation of computation and cooling to servers. These strategies need to be backed up by flexible room level models, able to work on runtime, that describe the system from a high level perspective. Within the framework of next-generation applications, decisions taken at this scope can have a dramatical impact on the energy consumption of lower abstraction levels, i.e. the data center facility. It is important to consider the relationships between all the computational agents involved in the problem, so that they can cooperate to achieve the common goal of reducing energy in the overall system. The third main contribution is the energy optimization of the overall application by evaluating the energy costs of performing part of the processing in any of the different abstraction layers, from the node to the data center, via workload management and off-loading techniques. In summary, the work presented in this PhD Thesis, makes contributions on leakage and cooling aware server modeling and optimization, data center thermal modeling and heterogeneityaware data center resource allocation, and develops mechanisms for the energy optimization for next-generation applications from a multi-layer perspective.