Energy retrofits in social housing. Analysis of its thermal behaviour.

468 p.

Reducing energy demand: what are the practical limits?

Concern over the global energy system, whether driven by climate change, national security, or fears of shortage, is being discussed widely and in every arena but with a bias toward energy supply options. While demand reduction is often mentioned in passing, it is rarely a priority for implementation, whether through policy or through the search for innovation. This paper aims to draw attention to the opportunity for major reduction in energy demand, by presenting an analysis of how much of current global energy demand could be avoided. Previous work led to a "map" of global energy use that traces the flow of energy from primary sources (fuels or renewable sources), through fuel refinery, electricity generation, and end-use conversion devices, to passive systems and the delivery of final energy services (transport, illumination, and sustenance). The key passive systems are presented here and analyzed through simple engineering models with scalar equations using data based on current global practice. Physically credible options for change to key design parameters are identified and used to predict the energy savings possible for each system. The result demonstrates that 73% of global energy use could be saved by practically achievable design changes to passive systems. This reduction could be increased by further efficiency improvements in conversion devices. A list of the solutions required to achieve these savings is provided.

Transport energy demand: techno-economic modelling and scenarios for Irish climate policy

The case for energy policy modelling is strong in Ireland, where stringent EU climate targets are projected to be overshot by 2015. Policy targets aiming to deliver greenhouse gas and renewable energy targets have been made, but it is unclear what savings are to be achieved and from which sectors. Concurrently, the growth of personal mobility has caused an astonishing increase in CO2 emissions from private cars in Ireland, a 37% rise between 2000 and 2008, and while there have been improvements in the efficiency of car technology, there was no decrease in the energy intensity of the car fleet in the same period. This thesis increases the capacity for evidenced-based policymaking in Ireland by developing techno-economic transport energy models and using them to analyse historical trends and to project possible future scenarios. A central focus of this thesis is to understand the effect of the car fleet‘s evolving technical characteristics on energy demand. A car stock model is developed to analyse this question from three angles: Firstly, analysis of car registration and activity data between 2000 and 2008 examines the trends which brought about the surge in energy demand. Secondly, the car stock is modelled into the future and is used to populate a baseline “no new policy” scenario, looking at the impact of recent (2008-2011) policy and purchasing developments on projected energy demand and emissions. Thirdly, a range of technology efficiency, fuel switching and behavioural scenarios are developed up to 2025 in order to indicate the emissions abatement and renewable energy penetration potential from alternative policy packages. In particular, an ambitious car fleet electrification target for Ireland is examined. The car stock model‘s functionality is extended by linking it with other models: LEAP-Ireland, a bottom-up energy demand model for all energy sectors in the country; Irish TIMES, a linear optimisation energy system model; and COPERT, a pollution model. The methodology is also adapted to analyse trends in freight energy demand in a similar way. Finally, this thesis addresses the gap in the representation of travel behaviour in linear energy systems models. A novel methodology is developed and case studies for Ireland and California are presented using the TIMES model. Transport Energy

Climate and energy scenarios for Ireland to 2050 using the Irish TIMES energy systems model

Due to growing concerns regarding the anthropogenic interference with the climate system, countries across the world are being challenged to develop effective strategies to mitigate climate change by reducing or preventing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The European Union (EU) is committed to contribute to this challenge by setting a number of climate and energy targets for the years 2020, 2030 and 2050 and then agreeing effort sharing amongst Member States. This thesis focus on one Member State, Ireland, which faces specific challenges and is not on track to meet the targets agreed to date. Before this work commenced, there were no projections of energy demand or supply for Ireland beyond 2020. This thesis uses techno-economic energy modelling instruments to address this knowledge gap. It builds and compares robust, comprehensive policy scenarios, providing a means of assessing the implications of different future energy and emissions pathways for the Irish economy, Ireland’s energy mix and the environment. A central focus of this thesis is to explore the dynamics of the energy system moving towards a low carbon economy. This thesis develops an energy systems model (the Irish TIMES model) to assess the implications of a range of energy and climate policy targets and target years. The thesis also compares the results generated from the least cost scenarios with official projections and target pathways and provides useful metrics and indications to identify key drivers and to support both policy makers and stakeholder in identifying cost optimal strategies. The thesis also extends the functionality of energy system modelling by developing and applying new methodologies to provide additional insights with a focus on particular issues that emerge from the scenario analysis carried out. Firstly, the thesis develops a methodology for soft-linking an energy systems model (Irish TIMES) with a power systems model (PLEXOS) to improve the interpretation of the electricity sector results in the energy system model. The soft-linking enables higher temporal resolution and improved characterisation of power plants and power system operation Secondly, the thesis develops a methodology for the integration of agriculture and energy systems modelling to enable coherent economy wide climate mitigation scenario analysis. This provides a very useful starting point for considering the trade-offs between the energy system and agriculture in the context of a low carbon economy and for enabling analysis of land-use competition. Three specific time scale perspectives are examined in this thesis (2020, 2030, 2050), aligning with key policy target time horizons. The results indicate that Ireland’s short term mandatory emissions reduction target will not be achieved without a significant reassessment of renewable energy policy and that the current dominant policy focus on wind-generated electricity is misplaced. In the medium to long term, the results suggest that energy efficiency is the first cost effective measure to deliver emissions reduction; biomass and biofuels are likely to be the most significant fuel source for Ireland in the context of a low carbon future prompting the need for a detailed assessment of possible implications for sustainability and competition with the agri-food sectors; significant changes are required in infrastructure to deliver deep emissions reductions (to enable the electrification of heat and transport, to accommodate carbon capture and storage facilities (CCS) and for biofuels); competition between energy and agriculture for land-use will become a key issue. The purpose of this thesis is to increase the evidence-based underpinning energy and climate policy decisions in Ireland. The methodology is replicable in other Member States.

Cities Ready for Energy Crises - Building Urban energy Resilience

Various sources indicate that threats to modern cities lie in the availability of essential streams, among which energy. Most cities are strongly reliant on fossil fuels; not one case of a fully self-sufficient city is known. Engineering resilience is the rate at which a system returns to a single steady or cyclic state following a perturbation. Certain resilience, for the duration of a crisis, would improve the urban capability to survive such a period without drastic measures.
The capability of cities to prepare for and respond to energy crises in the near future is supported by greater or temporary self-sufficiency. The objective of the underlying research is a model for a city – including its surrounding rural area – that can sustain energy crises. Therefore, accurate monitoring of the current urban metabolism is needed for the use of energy. This can be used to pinpoint problem areas. Furthermore, a sustainable energy system is needed, in which the cycle is better closed. This will require a three-stepped approach of energy savings, energy exchange and sustainable energy generation. Essential is the capacity to store energy surpluses for periods of shortage (crises).
The paper discusses the need for resilient cities and the approach to make cities resilient to energy crises.

Study on Some Key Problems Related to Integrated Energy Systems: 区域综合能源系统若干问题研究

The research on integrated energy system technology meets the major national strategic needs of China. Focusing on the vital theory of planning and optimal operation of integrated energy system, six fundamental problems in the study of integrated energy system are proposed systematically, including the common modeling technology for integrated energy system, the integrated simulation of integrated energy system, the planning theory and method of integrated energy system, the security theory and method of integrated energy system, the optimal operation and control of integrated energy system, the benefit assessment and operational mechanisms of integrated energy system. The status of domestic and foreign research directions related to each scientific problems are surveyed and anticipated.

Optimization of Controller Parameters for Energy Saving

Among various technologies to tackle the twin challenges of sustainable energy supply and climate change, energy saving through advanced control plays a crucial role in decarbonizing the whole energy system. Modern control technologies, such as optimal control and model predictive control do provide a framework to simultaneously regulate the system performance and limit control energy. However, few have been done so far to exploit the full potential of controller design in reducing the energy consumption while maintaining desirable system performance. This paper investigates the correlations between control energy consumption and system performance using two popular control approaches widely used in the industry, namely the PI control and subspace model predictive control. Our investigation shows that the controller design is a delicate synthesis procedure in achieving better trade-o between system performance and energy saving, and proper choice of values for the control parameters may potentially save a significant amount of energy

Optimatization of hybrid renewable energy systems on isolated microgrids : a smart grid approach

Tese de doutoramento, Sistemas Sustentáveis de Energia, Universidade de Lisboa, Faculdade de Ciências, 2016

Increase of the delivered energy probability in DES using a fuzzy probabilistic modeling

The paper proposes a methodology to increase the probability of delivering power to any load point by identifying new investments in distribution energy systems. The proposed methodology is based on statistical failure and repair data of distribution components and it uses a fuzzy-probabilistic modeling for the components outage parameters. The fuzzy membership functions of the outage parameters of each component are based on statistical records. A mixed integer nonlinear programming optimization model is developed in order to identify the adequate investments in distribution energy system components which allow increasing the probability of delivering power to any customer in the distribution system at the minimum possible cost for the system operator. To illustrate the application of the proposed methodology, the paper includes a case study that considers a 180 bus distribution network.

Modified Discrete PSO to Increase the Delivered Energy Probability in Distribution energy Systems

This paper proposes a PSO based approach to increase the probability of delivering power to any load point by identifying new investments in distribution energy systems. The statistical failure and repair data of distribution components is the main basis of the proposed methodology that uses a fuzzyprobabilistic modeling for the components outage parameters. The fuzzy membership functions of the outage parameters of each component are based on statistical records. A Modified Discrete PSO optimization model is developed in order to identify the adequate investments in distribution energy system components which allow increasing the probability of delivering power to any customer in the distribution system at the minimum possible cost for the system operator. To illustrate the application of the proposed methodology, the paper includes a case study that considers a 180 bus distribution network.

A method of formulating energy load profile for domestic buildings in the UK

There are varieties of physical and behavioral factors to determine energy demand load profile. The attainment of the optimum mix of measures and renewable energy system deployment requires a simple method suitable for using at the early design stage. A simple method of formulating load profile (SMLP) for UK domestic buildings has been presented in this paper. Domestic space heating load profile for different types of houses have been produced using thermal dynamic model which has been developed using thermal resistant network method. The daily breakdown energy demand load profile of appliance, domestic hot water and space heating can be predicted using this method. The method can produce daily load profile from individual house to urban community. It is suitable to be used at Renewable energy system strategic design stage.

The changing energy balance of the polar regions in a warmer climate

Energy fluxes for polar regions are examined for two 30-year periods, representing the end of the 20th and 21st centuries, using data from high resolution simulations with the ECHAM5 climate model. The net radiation to space for the present climate agrees well with data from the Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) over the northern polar region but shows an underestimation in planetary albedo for the southern polar region. This suggests there are systematic errors in the atmospheric circulation or in the net surface energy fluxes in the southern polar region. The simulation of the future climate is based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B scenario. The total energy transport is broadly the same for the two 30 year periods, but there is an increase in the moist energy transport of the order of 6 W m−2 and a corresponding reduction in the dry static energy. For the southern polar region the proportion of moist energy transport is larger and the dry static energy correspondingly smaller for both periods. The results suggest a possible mechanism for the warming of the Arctic that is discussed. Changes between the 20th and 21st centuries in the northern polar region show the net ocean surface radiation flux in summer increases ~18W m−2 (24%). For the southern polar region the response is different as there is a decrease in surface solar radiation. We suggest that this is caused by changes in cloudiness associated with the poleward migration of the storm tracks.

Public values and community energy: lessons from the US and UK

This paper examines some of the normative aspects of community energy programmes — defined here as decentralized forms of energy production and distributed energy technologies where production decisions are made as close as possible to sources of consumption. Such projects might also display a degree of separation from the formal political process. The development of a community energy system often generates a great deal of debate about both the degree of public support for such programmes and the values around which programmes ought to be organized. Community energy programmes also raise important issues regarding the energy choice problem, including questions of process, that is, by whom a project is developed and the influence of both community and exogenous actors, as well as certain outcome issues regarding the spatial and social distribution of energy. The case studies, drawn from community energy programmes in both the United States and the United Kingdom, allow for a careful examination of all of these factors, considering in particular the complex interplay and juxtaposition between the ideas of 'public value' and 'public values'.

Energy education: breaking up the rational energy use barriers

Human development is associated directly or indirectly with the energy use, and because of this the energetic sources were dealt with in the recent past, as fully available to human necessities. The reality shows that the energy availability, considering the nonrenewable sources, is limited, and beyond that, the exploration, the processing and the use of energy impose considerable impacts on the environment. There is not a system which operates with no losses and without imposing changes to the environment. Therefore, the energy conservation incorporates the concepts and the actions applied to the research of sustainable balance between nature and the energy availability and use. Such actions can be presented both in the short term, in which the energy system is close to a collapse, or in the medium/long term, in which those responsible for the energy policies are concerned with the structure of the socioeconomic development. Such a situation requires more responsibility in the treatment of energy questions, mainly through education, which represents long-term investments. This paper discusses barriers that are present in the projects applied to energy conservation, by making clear that education is one of the best ways to transform the human behavior in for the rational use of energy. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analysis of hybrid waste-to-energy for medium-sized cities

Urban centers have a huge demand for electricity and the growing problem of the solid waste management generated by their population, a relevant social and administrative problem. The correct disposal of the municipal solid waste (MSW) generated in cities is one of the most complex engineering problems that involves logistics, safety, environmental and energetic aspects for its adequate management. Due to a national policy of solid wastes recently promulgated, Brazilian cities are evaluating the technical and economic feasibility of incinerating the non-recyclable waste. São José dos Campos, a São Paulo State industrialized city, is considering the composting of organic waste for biogas production and mass incineration of non-recyclable waste. This paper presents a waste-to-energy system based on the integration of gas turbines to a MSW incinerator for producing thermal and electric energy as an alternative solution for the solid waste disposal in São José dos Campos, SP. A technical and economic feasibility study for the hybrid combined cycle plant is presented and revealed to be attractive when carbon credit and waste tax are included in the project income. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.