Incorporating technology buying behaviour into UK-based long term domestic stock energy models to provide improved policy analysis

The UK has a target for an 80% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050 from a 1990 base. Domestic energy use accounts for around 30% of total emissions. This paper presents a comprehensive review of existing models and modelling techniques and indicates how they might be improved by considering individual buying behaviour. Macro (top-down) and micro (bottom-up) models have been reviewed and analysed. It is found that bottom-up models can project technology diffusion due to their higher resolution. The weakness of existing bottom-up models at capturing individual green technology buying behaviour has been identified. Consequently, Markov chains, neural networks and agent-based modelling are proposed as possible methods to incorporate buying behaviour within a domestic energy forecast model. Among the three methods, agent-based models are found to be the most promising, although a successful agent approach requires large amounts of input data. A prototype agent-based model has been developed and tested, which demonstrates the feasibility of an agent approach. This model shows that an agent-based approach is promising as a means to predict the effectiveness of various policy measures.

Regional changes in wind energy potential over Europe using regional climate model ensemble projections

The impact of climate change on wind power generation potentials over Europe is investigated by considering ensemble projections from two regional climate models (RCMs) driven by a global climate model (GCM). Wind energy density and its interannual variability are estimated based on hourly near-surface wind speeds. Additionally, the possible impact of climatic changes on the energy output of a sample 2.5-MW turbine is discussed. GCM-driven RCM simulations capture the behavior and variability of current wind energy indices, even though some differences exist when compared with reanalysis-driven RCM simulations. Toward the end of the twenty-first century, projections show significant changes of energy density on annual average across Europe that are substantially stronger in seasonal terms. The emergence time of these changes varies from region to region and season to season, but some long-term trends are already statistically significant in the middle of the twenty-first century. Over northern and central Europe, the wind energy potential is projected to increase, particularly in winter and autumn. In contrast, energy potential over southern Europe may experience a decrease in all seasons except for the Aegean Sea. Changes for wind energy output follow the same patterns but are of smaller magnitude. The GCM/RCM model chains project a significant intensification of both interannual and intra-annual variability of energy density over parts of western and central Europe, thus imposing new challenges to a reliable pan-European energy supply in future decades.

The energy-cycle analysis of the interactions between shallow and deep atmospheric convection

Interactions between different convection modes can be investigated using an energy–cycle description under a framework of mass–flux parameterization. The present paper systematically investigates this system by taking a limit of two modes: shallow and deep convection. Shallow convection destabilizes itself as well as the other convective modes by moistening and cooling the environment, whereas deep convection stabilizes itself as well as the other modes by drying and warming the environment. As a result, shallow convection leads to a runaway growth process in its stand–alone mode, whereas deep convection simply damps out. Interaction between these two convective modes becomes a rich problem, even when it is limited to the case with no large–scale forcing, because of these opposing tendencies. Only if the two modes are coupled at a proper level can a self–sustaining system arise, exhibiting a periodic cycle. The present study establishes the conditions for self–sustaining periodic solutions. It carefully documents the behaviour of the two mode system in order to facilitate the interpretation of global model behaviours when this energy–cycle is implemented as a closure into a convection parameterization in future.

The inclusion of forage mixtures in the diet of growing dairy heifers: impacts on digestion, energy utilisation, and methane emissions

Intensive farming focusing on monoculture grass species to maximise forage production has led to a reduction in the extent and diversity of species-rich grasslands. However, plant communities with higher species number (richness) are a potential strategy for more sustainable production and mitigation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Research has indicated the need to understand opportunities that forage mixtures can offer sustainable ruminant production systems. The objective of the two experiments reported here were to evaluate multiple species forage mixtures in comparison to ryegrass-dominant pasture, when conserved or grazed, on digestion, energy utilisation, N excretion, and methane emissions by growing 10–15 month old heifers. Experiment 1 was a 4 × 4 Latin square design with five week periods. Four forage treatments of: (1) ryegrass (control); permanent pasture with perennial ryegrass (Lolium perenne); (2) clover; a ryegrass:red clover (Trifolium pratense) mixture; (3) trefoil; a ryegrass:birdsfoot trefoil (Lotus corniculatus) mixture; and (4) flowers; a ryegrass:wild flower mixture of predominately sorrel (Rumex acetosa), ox-eye daisy (Leucanthemum vulgare), yarrow (Achillea millefolium), knapweed (Centaurea nigra) and ribwort plantain (Plantago lanceolata), were fed as haylages to four dairy heifers. Measurements included digestibility, N excretion, and energy utilisation (including methane emissions measured in respiration chambers). Experiment 2 used 12 different dairy heifers grazing three of the same forage treatments used to make haylage in experiment 1 (ryegrass, clover and flowers) and methane emissions were estimated using the sulphur hexafluoride (SF6) tracer technique. Distribution of ryegrass to other species (dry matter (DM) basis) was approximately 70:30 (clover), 80:20 (trefoil), and 40:60 (flowers) for experiment 1. During the first and second grazing rotations (respectively) in experiment 2, perennial ryegrass accounted for 95 and 98% of DM in ryegrass, and 84 and 52% of DM in clover, with red clover accounting for almost all of the remainder. In the flowers mixture, perennial ryegrass was 52% of the DM in the first grazing rotation and only 30% in the second, with a variety of other flower species occupying the remainder. Across both experiments, compared to the forage mixtures (clover, trefoil and flowers), ryegrass had a higher crude protein (CP) content (P < 0.001, 187 vs. 115 g kg −1 DM) and DM intake (P < 0.05, 9.0 vs. 8.1 kg day −1). Heifers in experiment 1 fed ryegrass, compared to the forage mixtures, had greater total tract digestibility (g kg −1) of DM (DMD; P < 0.008, 713 vs. 641) and CP (CPD, P < 0.001, 699 vs. 475), and used more intake energy (%) for body tissue deposition (P < 0.05, 2.6 vs. −4.9). For both experiments, heifers fed flowers differed the most compared to the ryegrass control for a number of measurements. Compared to ryegrass, flowers had 40% lower CP content (P < 0.001, 113 vs. 187 g kg −1), 18% lower DMD (P < 0.01, 585 vs. 713 g kg −1), 42% lower CPD (P < 0.001, 407 vs. 699 g kg −1), and 10% lower methane yield (P < 0.05, 22.6 vs. 25.1 g kg −1 DM intake). This study has shown inclusion of flowers in forage mixtures resulted in a lower CP concentration, digestibility and intake. These differences were due in part to sward management and maturity at harvest. Further research is needed to determine how best to exploit the potential environmental benefits of forage mixtures in sustainable ruminant production systems.

Measuring ion temperatures and studying the ion energy balance in the high-latitude ionosphere

Data are presented for a nighttime ion heating event observed by the EISCAT radar on 16 December 1988. In the experiment, the aspect angle between the radar beam and the geomagnetic field was fixed at 54.7°, which avoids any ambiguity in derived ion temperature caused by anisotropy in the ion velocity distribution function. The data were analyzed with an algorithm which takes account of the non-Maxwellian line-of-sight ion velocity distribution. During the heating event, the derived spectral distortion parameter (D∗) indicated that the distribution function was highly distorted from a Maxwellian form when the ion drift increased to 4 km s−1. The true three-dimensional ion temperature was used in the simplified ion balance equation to compute the ion mass during the heating event. The ion composition was found to change from predominantly O4 to mainly molecular ions. A theoretical analysis of the ion composition, using the MSIS86 model and published values of the chemical rate coefficients, accounts for the order-of-magnitude increase in the atomic/molecular ion ratio during the event, but does not successfully explain the very high proportion of molecular ions that was observed.

Depot-specific modulation of adipokine levels in rat adipose tissue by diet-induced obesity: The effect of aerobic training and energy restriction

The present study examined the effects of aerobic training and energy restriction on adipokines levels in mesenteric (MEAT) and retroperitoneal (RPAT) white adipose tissue from obese rats. Male Wistar rats were fed with standard laboratory diet (Control group) or high fat diet (HFD). After 15 weeks, HFD rats were randomly assigned to the following groups: rats submitted to HFD, which were sedentary (sedentary HFD, n = 8) or trained (trained HFD, n = 8); or submitted to energy-restriction (ER), which were sedentary (sedentary ER, n = 8) or trained (trained ER, n = 8). Trained rats ran on a treadmill at 55% VO(2max) for 60 min/day, 5 days/week, for 10 weeks. ER rats were submitted to a reduction of 20% daily caloric ingestion compared to the Control group. ER and aerobic training decreased body weight, MEAT and RPAT absolute weight, and fat mass. IL-6, IL-10 and TNF-alpha levels were decreased and adiponectin did not change in RPAT in response to ER protocol. On the other hand, ER and the aerobic training protocol decreased IL-6, TNF-alpha and adiponectin levels in MEAT. Absolute MEAT weight showed a positive correlation with IL-6 (r = 0.464), INF-alpha (r = 0.508); and adiponectin (r = 0.342). These results suggest a tissue-specific heterogeneous response in adipokines level. The combination of the protocols (aerobic training and energy restriction) did not induce an enhanced effect. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Photoluminescence properties of PZT 52/48 synthesized by microwave hydrothermal method using PVA with template

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Energy and oil levels in broiler starter diets

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Ytterbium-induced energy-transfer upconversion enhancement in Nd3+/Pr3+-codoped PbGeO3-PbF2-CdF2 glass excited at 810nm

The effect of ytterbium ions upon energy transfer (ET) excited upconversion emission in Nd3+/Pr3+ -codoped PbGeO3-PbF2-CdF2 glass under 810 nm diode laser excitation is investigated. The results revealed that the presence of Yb3+ ions in the Nd3+/Pr3+-doped sample yields a fourfold enhancement in the visible and near infrared upconversion luminescence. The dependence of the upconversion process upon the excitation power, Nd3+, and Yb3+ concentrations is examined. The results indicated that ytterbium plays a major role in the ET upconversion process by bridging the 810nm neodymium excitation to praseodymium ions. The population of the Pr3+ ions P-3(0) emitting level was accomplished through a multi-ion interaction involving ground-state and excited-state absorption of pump photons at 810 nm by the Nd3+ followed by successive ET involving the Nd3+-Yb3+ and Yb3+-Pr3+ pairs. There is also direct ET Nd3+-Pr3+. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Net energy, protein and macrominerals requirements for 70 to 120 day old female rabbits

In order to determine the net energy, protein and macrominerals requirements of 70 to 120 day old, 52 female White New Zealand rabbits, weighing 1900g +/- 40g were used. At the beginning of the experimental period, 14 of the 52 young does were slaughtered and the 38 remaining animals were kept under two dietary management: ad libitum and restricted feeding. Slaughters were performed to determine each nutrient body content. The weight gain nutrient requirements depicted by the quantities of each nutrient stored into the body were obtained by applying the regression equation, which estimate the empty body nutrient content logarithm as a function of the empty body weight logarithm, as described by ARC (1980). By determining the heat production logarithm at the zero level of metabolizable energy intake, the maintenance net energy requirement was estimated to be 45.31 Kcal/day/Kg(0.75) the mean net energy. protein, calcium, phosphorous, sodium, magnesium and potassium requirements for each gram of weight gain per day were estimated to be, 2.51 Kcal, 0.21g, 0.02g, 0.005g, 0.001g, 0.0004g and 0.002g, respectively.

Modeling metabolizable energy utilization in broiler breeder pullets

The objective of this study was to determine models for ME requirements for broiler breeder pullets using the factorial method. The influence of the temperature on maintenance ME requirements was determined by experiments conducted in three environmental rooms with temperature kept constant at 15, 22, and 30°C, using the comparative slaughter technique. The energy requirements for weight gain were determined based on the body energy content and efficiency of energy utilization for weight gain. Two ME requirement models for each age were developed using the coefficients for maintenance and weight gain. The models for 3 to 8 wk were ME = W 0.75 (186.52 - 1.94T) + 2.47WG, and ME = W 0.75 (174 - 1.88T) + 2.83WG; for 9 to 14 wk, ME = W 0.75 (186.52 - 1.94T) + 2.69WG, and ME = W 0.75 (174 - 1.88T) + 2.50WG; and 15 to 20 wk, ME = W 0.75 (186.52 - 1.94T) + 2.76WG, and ME = W 0.75 (174 - 1.88T) + 3.24WG. In these equations, W is BW (kg), T is temperature (°C), and WG is daily weight gain (g). These models were compared to the breeder's recommendations in a feeding trial from 5 to 20 wk of age. Models 1 and 2 provided energy intakes that promoted BW smaller than the breeder's recommendation. However, all breeder pullets had weights above the standard recommendation. Model 2 gave the smallest ME intake and BW close to the standard recommendation and provided the best prediction of ME requirements.

Modeling energy utilization and growth parameter description for broiler chickens

Two experiments were conducted to develop and evaluate a model to estimate ME requirements and determine Gompertz growth parameters for broilers. The first experiment was conducted to determine maintenance energy requirements and the efficiencies of energy utilization for fat and protein deposition. Maintenance ME (ME m) requirements were estimated to be 157.8, 112.1, and 127.2 kcal of ME/kg 0.75 per day for broilers at 13, 23, and 32°C, respectively. Environmental temperature (T) had a quadratic effect on maintenance requirements (ME m = 307.87 - 15.63T + 0.3105T 2; r 2= 0.93). Energy requirements for fat and protein deposition were estimated to be 13.52 and 12.59 kcal of ME/g, respectively. Based on these coefficients, a model was developed to calculate daily ME requirements: ME = BW 0.75 (307.87 - 15.63T + 0.3105 T 2) + 13.52 G f + 12.59 G p. This model considers live BW, the effects of environmental temperature, and fractional fat (G f) and protein (G p) deposition. The second experiment was carried out to estimate the growth parameters of Ross broilers and to collect data to evaluate the ME requirement model proposed. Live BW, empty feather-free carcass, weight of the feathers, and carcass chemical compositions were analyzed until 16 wk of age. Parameters of Gompertz curves for each component were estimated. Males had higher growth potential and higher capacity to deposit nutrients than females, except for fat deposition. Data of BW and body composition collected in this experiment were fitted into the energy model proposed herein and the equations described by Emmans (1989) and Chwalibog (1991). The daily ME requirements estimated by the model determined in this study were closer to the ME intake observed in this trial compared with other models. ©2005 Poultry Science Association, Inc.

Prospect, evaluation and characterization of aeolian energy

Spanish version available

Proposed methodology for aeolian energy development in Latin America

Spanish version available