Emulation of dynamic computer models with multivariate output

This preliminary report describes work carried out as part of work package 1.2 of the MUCM research project. The report is split in two parts: the ?rst part (Sections 1 and 2) summarises the state of the art in emulation of computer models, while the second presents some initial work on the emulation of dynamic models. In the ?rst part, we describe the basics of emulation, introduce the notation and put together the key results for the emulation of models with single and multiple outputs, with or without the use of mean function. In the second part, we present preliminary results on the chaotic Lorenz 63 model. We look at emulation of a single time step, and repeated application of the emulator for sequential predic- tion. After some design considerations, the emulator is compared with the exact simulator on a number of runs to assess its performance. Several general issues related to emulating dynamic models are raised and discussed. Current work on the larger Lorenz 96 model (40 variables) is presented in the context of dimension reduction, with results to be provided in a follow-up report. The notation used in this report are summarised in appendix.

Managing uncertainty in complex stochastic models: design and emulation of a Rabies model

In this paper we present a novel method for emulating a stochastic, or random output, computer model and show its application to a complex rabies model. The method is evaluated both in terms of accuracy and computational efficiency on synthetic data and the rabies model. We address the issue of experimental design and provide empirical evidence on the effectiveness of utilizing replicate model evaluations compared to a space-filling design. We employ the Mahalanobis error measure to validate the heteroscedastic Gaussian process based emulator predictions for both the mean and (co)variance. The emulator allows efficient screening to identify important model inputs and better understanding of the complex behaviour of the rabies model.

The characterisation and emulation of rotary mechanical machines

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High spectral efficiency transmission emulation for non-linear transmission performance estimation for high order modulation formats

We demonstrate a simple method to experimentally evaluate nonlinear transmission performance of high order modulation formats using a low number of channels and channel-like ASE. We verify it's behaviour is consistent with the AWGN model of transmission.

Towards simulation and emulation of large-scale computer networks

Developing analytical models that can accurately describe behaviors of Internet-scale networks is difficult. This is due, in part, to the heterogeneous structure, immense size and rapidly changing properties of today's networks. The lack of analytical models makes large-scale network simulation an indispensable tool for studying immense networks. However, large-scale network simulation has not been commonly used to study networks of Internet-scale. This can be attributed to three factors: 1) current large-scale network simulators are geared towards simulation research and not network research, 2) the memory required to execute an Internet-scale model is exorbitant, and 3) large-scale network models are difficult to validate. This dissertation tackles each of these problems. ^ First, this work presents a method for automatically enabling real-time interaction, monitoring, and control of large-scale network models. Network researchers need tools that allow them to focus on creating realistic models and conducting experiments. However, this should not increase the complexity of developing a large-scale network simulator. This work presents a systematic approach to separating the concerns of running large-scale network models on parallel computers and the user facing concerns of configuring and interacting with large-scale network models. ^ Second, this work deals with reducing memory consumption of network models. As network models become larger, so does the amount of memory needed to simulate them. This work presents a comprehensive approach to exploiting structural duplications in network models to dramatically reduce the memory required to execute large-scale network experiments. ^ Lastly, this work addresses the issue of validating large-scale simulations by integrating real protocols and applications into the simulation. With an emulation extension, a network simulator operating in real-time can run together with real-world distributed applications and services. As such, real-time network simulation not only alleviates the burden of developing separate models for applications in simulation, but as real systems are included in the network model, it also increases the confidence level of network simulation. This work presents a scalable and flexible framework to integrate real-world applications with real-time simulation.^

Leveraging symbiotic relationships for emulation of computer networks

The lack of analytical models that can accurately describe large-scale networked systems makes empirical experimentation indispensable for understanding complex behaviors. Research on network testbeds for testing network protocols and distributed services, including physical, emulated, and federated testbeds, has made steady progress. Although the success of these testbeds is undeniable, they fail to provide: 1) scalability, for handling large-scale networks with hundreds or thousands of hosts and routers organized in different scenarios, 2) flexibility, for testing new protocols or applications in diverse settings, and 3) inter-operability, for combining simulated and real network entities in experiments. This dissertation tackles these issues in three different dimensions. First, we present SVEET, a system that enables inter-operability between real and simulated hosts. In order to increase the scalability of networks under study, SVEET enables time-dilated synchronization between real hosts and the discrete-event simulator. Realistic TCP congestion control algorithms are implemented in the simulator to allow seamless interactions between real and simulated hosts. SVEET is validated via extensive experiments and its capabilities are assessed through case studies involving real applications. Second, we present PrimoGENI, a system that allows a distributed discrete-event simulator, running in real-time, to interact with real network entities in a federated environment. PrimoGENI greatly enhances the flexibility of network experiments, through which a great variety of network conditions can be reproduced to examine what-if questions. Furthermore, PrimoGENI performs resource management functions, on behalf of the user, for instantiating network experiments on shared infrastructures. Finally, to further increase the scalability of network testbeds to handle large-scale high-capacity networks, we present a novel symbiotic simulation approach. We present SymbioSim, a testbed for large-scale network experimentation where a high-performance simulation system closely cooperates with an emulation system in a mutually beneficial way. On the one hand, the simulation system benefits from incorporating the traffic metadata from real applications in the emulation system to reproduce the realistic traffic conditions. On the other hand, the emulation system benefits from receiving the continuous updates from the simulation system to calibrate the traffic between real applications. Specific techniques that support the symbiotic approach include: 1) a model downscaling scheme that can significantly reduce the complexity of the large-scale simulation model, resulting in an efficient emulation system for modulating the high-capacity network traffic between real applications; 2) a queuing network model for the downscaled emulation system to accurately represent the network effects of the simulated traffic; and 3) techniques for reducing the synchronization overhead between the simulation and emulation systems.

Bayesian Emulation for Sequential Modeling, Inference and Decision Analysis

The advances in three related areas of state-space modeling, sequential Bayesian learning, and decision analysis are addressed, with the statistical challenges of scalability and associated dynamic sparsity. The key theme that ties the three areas is Bayesian model emulation: solving challenging analysis/computational problems using creative model emulators. This idea defines theoretical and applied advances in non-linear, non-Gaussian state-space modeling, dynamic sparsity, decision analysis and statistical computation, across linked contexts of multivariate time series and dynamic networks studies. Examples and applications in financial time series and portfolio analysis, macroeconomics and internet studies from computational advertising demonstrate the utility of the core methodological innovations.

Chapter 1 summarizes the three areas/problems and the key idea of emulating in those areas. Chapter 2 discusses the sequential analysis of latent threshold models with use of emulating models that allows for analytical filtering to enhance the efficiency of posterior sampling. Chapter 3 examines the emulator model in decision analysis, or the synthetic model, that is equivalent to the loss function in the original minimization problem, and shows its performance in the context of sequential portfolio optimization. Chapter 4 describes the method for modeling the steaming data of counts observed on a large network that relies on emulating the whole, dependent network model by independent, conjugate sub-models customized to each set of flow. Chapter 5 reviews those advances and makes the concluding remarks.

Physical model parameter optimisation for calibrated emulation of the Dallas Rangemaster Treble Booster guitar pedal

In this work we explore optimising parameters of a physical circuit model relative to input/output measurements, using the Dallas Rangemaster Treble Booster as a case study. A hybrid metaheuristic/gradient descent algorithm is implemented, where the initial parameter sets for the optimisation are informed by nominal values from schematics and datasheets. Sensitivity analysis is used to screen parameters, which informs a study of the optimisation algorithm against model complexity by fixing parameters. The results of the optimisation show a significant increase in the accuracy of model behaviour, but also highlight several key issues regarding the recovery of parameters.

Leveraging Symbiotic Relationships for Emulation of Computer Networks

The lack of analytical models that can accurately describe large-scale networked systems makes empirical experimentation indispensable for understanding complex behaviors. Research on network testbeds for testing network protocols and distributed services, including physical, emulated, and federated testbeds, has made steady progress. Although the success of these testbeds is undeniable, they fail to provide: 1) scalability, for handling large-scale networks with hundreds or thousands of hosts and routers organized in different scenarios, 2) flexibility, for testing new protocols or applications in diverse settings, and 3) inter-operability, for combining simulated and real network entities in experiments. This dissertation tackles these issues in three different dimensions. First, we present SVEET, a system that enables inter-operability between real and simulated hosts. In order to increase the scalability of networks under study, SVEET enables time-dilated synchronization between real hosts and the discrete-event simulator. Realistic TCP congestion control algorithms are implemented in the simulator to allow seamless interactions between real and simulated hosts. SVEET is validated via extensive experiments and its capabilities are assessed through case studies involving real applications. Second, we present PrimoGENI, a system that allows a distributed discrete-event simulator, running in real-time, to interact with real network entities in a federated environment. PrimoGENI greatly enhances the flexibility of network experiments, through which a great variety of network conditions can be reproduced to examine what-if questions. Furthermore, PrimoGENI performs resource management functions, on behalf of the user, for instantiating network experiments on shared infrastructures. Finally, to further increase the scalability of network testbeds to handle large-scale high-capacity networks, we present a novel symbiotic simulation approach. We present SymbioSim, a testbed for large-scale network experimentation where a high-performance simulation system closely cooperates with an emulation system in a mutually beneficial way. On the one hand, the simulation system benefits from incorporating the traffic metadata from real applications in the emulation system to reproduce the realistic traffic conditions. On the other hand, the emulation system benefits from receiving the continuous updates from the simulation system to calibrate the traffic between real applications. Specific techniques that support the symbiotic approach include: 1) a model downscaling scheme that can significantly reduce the complexity of the large-scale simulation model, resulting in an efficient emulation system for modulating the high-capacity network traffic between real applications; 2) a queuing network model for the downscaled emulation system to accurately represent the network effects of the simulated traffic; and 3) techniques for reducing the synchronization overhead between the simulation and emulation systems.

"Her lively Looks a sprightly Mind disclose, Quick as her Eyes, and as unfix'd as those." - looking, fashion media, and risk culture

This chapter investigates the phenomenon of fashion from the perspective of ‘the look.’ This is achieved by the wearer (as opposed to the designer) and also forms the basis of fashion media, where it represents the ‘decisive moment’ of photography. The chapter argues that the evolving ‘look’ of fashion can be analysed to identify tensions between novelty and emulation, the unique and the universal, in contemporary consumer culture and status-based social-network markets. It explores the work of fashion photographer Corinne Day and artist Olga Tobreluts to identify the theme of ‘risk culture.’

Smart Grid Test Bed Design and Implementation

Given there is currently a migration trend from traditional electrical supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA) systems towards a smart grid based approach to critical infrastructure management. This project provides an evaluation of existing and proposed implementations for both traditional electrical SCADA and smart grid based architectures, and proposals a set of reference requirements which test bed implementations should implement. A high-level design for smart grid test beds is proposed and initial implementation performed, based on the proposed design, using open source and freely available software tools. The project examines the move towards smart grid based critical infrastructure management and illustrates the increased security requirements. The implemented test bed provides a basic framework for testing network requirements in a smart grid environment, as well as a platform for further research and development. Particularly to develop, implement and test network security related disturbances such as intrusion detection and network forensics. The project undertaken proposes and develops an architecture of the emulation of some smart grid functionality. The Common Open Research Emulator (CORE) platform was used to emulate the communication network of the smart grid. Specifically CORE was used to virtualise and emulate the TCP/IP networking stack. This is intended to be used for further evaluation and analysis, for example the analysis of application protocol messages, etc. As a proof of concept, software libraries were designed, developed and documented to enable and support the design and development of further smart grid emulated components, such as reclosers, switches, smart meters, etc. As part of the testing and evaluation a Modbus based smart meter emulator was developed to provide basic functionality of a smart meter. Further code was developed to send Modbus request messages to the emulated smart meter and receive Modbus responses from it. Although the functionality of the emulated components were limited, it does provide a starting point for further research and development. The design is extensible to enable the design and implementation of additional SCADA protocols. The project also defines an evaluation criteria for the evaluation of the implemented test bed, and experiments are designed to evaluate the test bed according to the defined criteria. The results of the experiments are collated and presented, and conclusions drawn from the results to facilitate discussion on the test bed implementation. The discussion undertaken also present possible future work.

The importance of individual difference : examining anthropomorphic tendency and responses to spokes-characters

Anthropomorphism is a cognitive bias, which occurs when individuals see human characteristics in a non-human agent, object or animal. Anthropomorphism is especially interesting to marketers, because once anthropomorphic bias has been triggered, it can lead to a greater feeling of connectedness to a non-human agent (Tam, Lee and Chao, 2013), the emulation of behaviours (Aggarwal and McGill, 2012) or greater attribution of brand personality and brand liking (Delbaere, McQuarrie and Phillips, 2011). Importantly, research now shows that levels of this tendency vary between individuals (Waytz, Cacioppo and Epley, 2010), but research to date has failed to focus on how anthropomorphic tendency influences individual responses to marketing communications messages. Spokes-characters present an ideal context through which to examine this gap, given that they function as personified brands, designed to trigger consumer anthropomorphic tendency. Further, little is understood about how spokes-characters operate and which consumers will prefer them to their human counterparts. Like anthropomorphic research, much empirical work to date has focused on design and outcomes, examining the sender’s encoding process and the feedback generated, but ignoring the individual decoding process that is so important to understanding individual differences and message effectiveness. The current research employs three experiments using an online survey with stimulus exposure to show that anthropomorphic tendency, personality similarity and spokes-character type all have relevance to the understanding of this complex relationship. Study one and two indicate that while a human spokesperson is still preferred by many, higher levels of anthropomorphic tendency increase likeability of cartoon spokes characters. Study three highlights the importance of personality similarity, which further increases likability. Additional analyses provide key findings concerning the nature of anthropomorphic tendency as an individual difference and trait. This research contributes to a greater understanding of anthropomorphism theory and fills existing gaps in the consumer psychology and marketing communications literature.

Programming an FPGA to Emulate the Dynamics of DC Machines

This paper presents the programming an FPGA (Field Programmable Gate Array) to emulate the dynamics of DC machines. FPGA allows high speed real time simulation with high precision. The described design includes block diagram representation of DC machine, which contain all arithmetic and logical operations. The real time simulation of the machine in FPGA is controlled by user interfaces they are Keypad interface, LCD display on-line and digital to analog converter. This approach provides emulation of electrical machine by changing the parameters. Separately Exited DC machine implemented and experimental results are presented.

Running Men

In this multi-screen installation, iconic male characters from Hollywood films are reconfigured to create infinitely looping scenes of running; trapping the characters in a kind of Nietchzen eternal recurrence. Stemming primarily from my investigation into anxiety as a shared social experience, the carefully edited, looped, and rotoscoped characters become avatars or surrogates for myself, and for the viewer. Through this editing, they are caught in a space of relentless confusion and paranoia – they run with, and from, anxiety. They are never caught by any unseen pursuers, but are equally unable to catch up to any unseen goal. These figures act as models of masculinity, they are objects of identification and emulation. Simultaneously, as celebrities, they are also fictions of the media sphere, both real and ethereal, they are impossible to grasp. In this duality, the work also references cinema’s tangled conflation of character and celebrity identity. It examines the subjective and intersubjective engagements we can have with popular culture, and the way that these engagements can as strategies to ‘make sense’ of social experiences. The work was exhibited in the Carriageworks space of ‘You Imagine What You Desire’, the 19th Biennale of Sydney.

Running men: The precarious, paranoid body in screen culture

This paper discusses my video installation Running Men as an example of how an artist’s appropriative engagements with screen images of the perilous body can reflect the technological zeitgeist of the last hundred years but also create a space of meditative and mediated reflection in Slavoj Žižek’s “endlessness” of the present-future. In this artwork, iconic male characters from Hollywood films are recontextualised to create infinitely looping scenes of running; trapping the characters in a kind of Nietchzen eternal recurrence that suspends them between impending violence and uncertain futures. Stemming primarily from my investigation into anxiety as a shared social experience, one perhaps primed by the increasing intensity of visual culture in the 21st century, these digitally reconfigured bodies become avatars or surrogates for myself, and for the viewer. Through selective editing, these emblematic figures are caught in a space of relentless confusion and paranoia – they run with, and from anxiety. They are never caught by any unseen pursuers, but are equally unable to catch up to any unseen goal. These figures map an historical trajectory of violence and masculinity as it has been projected through various iterations of screen culture Simultaneously, as celebrities, they are also fictions of the media sphere, both real and ethereal, they are impossible to grasp but paradoxically are objects of identification and emulation. In this duality, the work also references cinema’s tangled conflation of character and celebrity identity. This discussion will address the two distinct but connected sites and activities of body/image engagement. Firstly, the artistic process and conceptual ramifications of this activity, and secondly in the artwork’s potential as an installation to provide an opportunity for the viewer (like the artist) to reflect on the constructed-ness and complicated power structures at play in the representation of a gendered body.