Predicting the potential distribution of the alien invasive American bullfrog (Lithobates catesbeianus) in Brazil

The non-native invasive anuran Lithobates catesbeianus is presently distributed in Brazil, especially in the Atlantic Rainforest biodiversity hotspot. Here, we use a maximum entropy ecological niche modeling algorithm (i) to model the North American native geographic distribution of this species and (ii) to project that model onto the whole of Brazil. After applying a threshold value that balances commission and omission errors, the projection results suggested high probabilities of occurrence mostly in southern and southeastern Brazil. We also present the first report on the species known distribution in Brazil, showing good agreement with model predictions. If the predictive map is interpreted as depicting invasiveness potential of L. catesbeianus, strategies to prevent further invasion in Brazil should be focused especially in the Atlantic Rainforest biodiversity hotspot.

Modelagem de nicho ecológico de anuros da Mata Atlântica

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Tracking climatically suitable areas for an endemic Cerrado snake under climate change

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Rekonstruktion der eiszeitlichen Verbreitung und Artbildung vier alpiner Primeln durch Artenverbreitungsmodelle und Phylogeographie

Aim: Previous studies revealed that diversification events in the western clade of the alpine Primula sect. Auricula were concentrated in the Quaternary cold periods. This implies that allopatric speciation in isolated glacial refugia was the most common mode of speciation. In the first part of the present dissertation, this hypothesis is further investigated by locating refugial areas of two sister species, Primula marginata & P. latifolia during the last glacial maximum, 21,000 years ago. In the second part, the glacial and postglacial history of P. hirsuta and P. daonensis is investigated. Location: European Alps. Methods: Glacial refugia were located using species distribution models, which are projected to last glacial maximum climate. These refugia are validated with geographic distribution patterns of intra-specific genetic diversity, rarity and variation. Results 1) Speciation: Glacial refugia of the sister taxa Primula marginata and P. latifolia were largely separated, only a small overlapping zone at the southern margin of the former glacier in the Maritime Alps exists. This overlapping zone is too small to indicate sympatric speciation. The largely separated glacial distribution of both species rather confirms our hypothesis of allopatric speciation in isolated glacial refugia. Results 2) Glacial and postglacial history: Surprizingly, the modelled potential refugia of three out of four Primula species are situated within the former ice-shield, except for P. marginata. This indicates that peripheral and central nunataks played an important role for the glacial survival in P. latifolia, P. hirsuta and P. daonensis, while peripheral refugia outside the maximum extend of the glacier were crucial in P. marginata. In P. hirsuta and P. latifolia SDMs allowed to exclude several hypothetical refugial areas that overlap with today’s distribution as potential refugia for the species. In P. marginata, hypothetical refugial areas at the periphery of the former ice-shield that overlap with today’s distribution were confirmed by the models. The results from the SDMs are confirmed by population genetic patterns in three out of four species. P. daonensis represents an exception, where population genetic data contradict the SDMs. Main conclusions: Species distribution models provide species specific scenarios of glacial distribution and postglacial re-colonization, which can be validated using population genetic analyses. This combined approach is useful and helps to understand the complex processes that have lead to the genetic and floristic patterns of biodiversity that is found today in the Alps.

História das paisagens florestais mésicas dentro da diagonal de formações abertas : contribuições de paleomodelagem, filogeografia de espécies associadas e de conservação

Tese (doutorado)—Universidade de Brasília, Instituto de Ciências Biológicas, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ecologia, 2016.

eHabitat, a multi-purpose Web Processing Service for ecological modeling

The number of interoperable research infrastructures has increased significantly with the growing awareness of the efforts made by the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS). One of the Societal Benefit Areas (SBA) that is benefiting most from GEOSS is biodiversity, given the costs of monitoring the environment and managing complex information, from space observations to species records including their genetic characteristics. But GEOSS goes beyond simple data sharing to encourage the publishing and combination of models, an approach which can ease the handling of complex multi-disciplinary questions. It is the purpose of this paper to illustrate these concepts by presenting eHabitat, a basic Web Processing Service (WPS) for computing the likelihood of finding ecosystems with equal properties to those specified by a user. When chained with other services providing data on climate change, eHabitat can be used for ecological forecasting and becomes a useful tool for decision-makers assessing different strategies when selecting new areas to protect. eHabitat can use virtually any kind of thematic data that can be considered as useful when defining ecosystems and their future persistence under different climatic or development scenarios. The paper will present the architecture and illustrate the concepts through case studies which forecast the impact of climate change on protected areas or on the ecological niche of an African bird.

Modeling the suitable habitat of a structural red gorgonian species in the Mediterranean/east Atlantic regions predicts a wider distribution than previously known

Dissertação de mestrado, Biologia Marinha, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, Univerdade do Algarve, 2015

A Stable Niche Assumption-Free Test of Ecological Divergence

Understanding the impact of geological events on diversification processes is central to evolutionary ecology. The recent amalgamation between ecological niche models (ENMs) and phylogenetic analyses has been used to estimate historical ranges of modern lineages by projecting current ecological niches of organisms onto paleoclimatic reconstructions. A critical assumption underlying this approach is that niches are stable over time. Using Notophthalmus viridescens (eastern newt), in which four ecologically diverged subspecies are recognized, we introduce an analytical framework free from the niche stability assumption to examine how refugial retreat and subsequent postglacial expansion have affected intraspecific ecological divergence. We found that the current subspecies designation was not congruent with the phylogenetic lineages. Thus, we examined ecological niche overlap between the refugial and modern populations, in both subspecies and lineage, by creating ENMs independently for modern and estimated last glacial maximum (LGM) newt populations, extracting bioclimate variables by randomly generated points, and conducting principal component analyses. Our analyses consistently showed that when tested as a hypothesis, rather than used as an assumption, the niches of N. viridescens lineages have been unstable since the LGM (both subspecies and lineages). There was greater ecological niche differentiation among the subspecies than the modern phylogenetic lineages, suggesting that the subspecies, rather than the phylogenetic lineages, is the unit of the current ecological divergence. The present study found little evidence that the LGM refugial retreat caused the currently observed ecological divergence and suggests that ecological divergence has occurred during postglacial expansion to the current distribution ranges.

Environmental niche variation and evolutionary diversification of the Brachypodium distachyon grass complex species in their native circum-Mediterranean range

PREMISE OF THE STUDY: We conducted environmental niche modeling (ENM) of the Brachypodium distachyon s.l. complex, a model group of two diploid annual grasses ( B. distachyon , B. stacei ) and their derived allotetraploid ( B. hybridum) , native to the circum-Mediterranean region. We (1) investigated the ENMs of the three species in their native range based on present and past climate data; (2) identifi ed potential overlapping niches of the diploids and their hybrid across four Quaternary windows; (3) tested whether speciation was associated with niche divergence/conservatism in the complex species; and (4) tested for the potential of the polyploid outperforming the diploids in the native range. M ETHODS: Geo-referenced data, altitude, and 19 climatic variables were used to construct the ENMs. We used paleoclimate niche models to trace the potential existence of ancestral gene fl ow among the hybridizing species of the complex. KEY RESULTS: Brachypodium distachyon grows in higher, cooler, and wetter places, B. stacei in lower, warmer, and drier places, and B. hybridum in places with intermediate climatic features. Brachypodium hybridum had the largest niche overlap with its parent niches, but a similar distribution range and niche breadth. C ONCLUSIONS: Each species had a unique environmental niche though there were multiple niche overlapping areas for the diploids across time, suggesting the potential existence of several hybrid zones during the Pleistocene and the Holocene. No evidence of niche divergence was found, suggesting that species diversifi cation was not driven by ecological speciation but by evolutionary history, though it could be associated to distinct environmental adaptations.

Ecological allometries and niche use dynamics across Komodo dragon ontogeny

Ontogenetic allometries in ecological habits and niche use are key responses by which individuals maximize lifetime fitness. Moreover, such allometries have significant implications for how individuals influence population and community dynamics. Here, we examined how body size variation in Komodo dragons (Varanus komodoensis) influenced ecological allometries in their: (1) prey size preference, (2) daily movement rates, (3) home range area, and (4) subsequent niche use across ontogeny. With increased body mass, Komodo dragons increased prey size with a dramatic switch from small (≤10 kg) to large prey (≥50 kg) in lizards heavier than 20 kg. Rates of foraging movement were described by a non-linear concave down response with lizard increasinghourly movement rates up until ∼20 kg body mass before decreasing daily movement suggesting reduced foraging effort in larger lizards. In contrast, home range area exhibited a sigmoid response with increased body mass. Intrapopulation ecological niche use and overlap were also strongly structured by body size. Thus, ontogenetic allometries suggest Komodo dragon’s transition from a highly active foraging modeexploiting small prey through to a less active sit and wait feeding strategy focused on killing large ungulates. Further, our results suggest that as body size increases across ontogeny, the Komodo dragon exhibited marked ontogenetic niche shifts that enabled it to function as an entire vertebrate predator guild by exploiting prey across multiple trophic levels.

Adaptive significance of the Indian caste system: an ecological perspective

Indian society is an agglomeration of several thousand endogamous groups or castes each with a restricted geographical range and a hereditarily determine mode of subsistence. These reproductively isolated castes may be compared to biological species, and the society thought of as a biological community with each caste having its specific ecological niche. In this paper we examine the ecological-niche relationships of castes which are directly dependent on natural resources. Evidence is presented to show that castes living together in the same region had so organized their pattern of resource use as to avoid excessive intercaste competition for limiting resources. Furthermore, territorial division of the total range of the caste regulated intra-caste competition. Hence, a particular plant or animal resource in a given locality was used almost exclusively by a given lineage within a caste generation after generation. This favoured the cultural evolution of traditions ensuring sustainable use of natural resources. This must have contributed significantly to the stability of Indian caste society over several thousand years. The collapse of the base of natural resources and increasing monetarization of the economy has, however, destroyed the earlier complementarity between the different castes and led to increasing conflicts between them in recent years.

Modeling the role of competition and cooperation in the evolution of katydid acoustic synchrony

The precise timing of individual signals in response to those of signaling neighbors is seen in many animal species. Synchrony is the most striking of the resultant timing patterns. One of the best examples of acoustic synchrony is in katydid choruses where males produce chirps with a high degree of temporal overlap. Cooperative hypotheses that speculate on the evolutionary origins of acousti synchrony include the preservation of the species-specific call pattern, reduced predation risks, and increased call intensity. An alternative suggestion is that synchrony evolved as an epiphenomenon of competition between males in response to a female preference for chirps that lead other chirps. Previous models investigating the evolutionary origins of synchrony focused only on intrasexual competitive interactions. We investigated both competitive and cooperative hypotheses for the evolution of synchrony in the katydid Mecopoda ``Chirper'' using physiologically and ecologically realistic simulation models incorporating the natural variation in call features, ecology, female preferences, and spacing patterns, specifically aggregation. We found that although a female preference for leading chirps enables synchronous males to have some selective advantage, it is the female preference for the increased intensity of aggregations of synchronous males that enables synchrony to evolve as an evolutionarily stable strategy.

Thesis abstract. Applying species distribution modeling for the conservation of Iberian protected invertebrates

This article outlines the approaches to modeling the distribution of threatened invertebrates using data from atlases, museums and databases. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) are useful for estimating species’ ranges, identifying suitable habitats, and identifying the primary factors affecting species’ distributions. The study tackles the strategies used to obtain SDMs without reliable absence data while exploring their applications for conservation. I examine the conservation status of Copris species and Graellsia isabelae by delimiting their populations and exploring the effectiveness of protected areas. I show that the method of pseudo‐absence selection strongly determines the model obtained, generating different model predictions along the gradient between potential and realized distributions. After assessing the effects of species’ traits and data characteristics on accuracy, I found that species are modeled more accurately when sample sizes are larger, no matter the technique used.

Assessing the impact of deforestation and climate change on the range size and environmental niche of bird species in the Atlantic forests, Brazil

Aim Habitat loss and climate change are two major drivers of biological diversity. Here we quantify how deforestation has already changed, and how future climate scenarios may change, environmental conditions within the highly disturbed Atlantic forests of Brazil. We also examine how environmental conditions have been altered within the range of selected bird species. Location Atlantic forests of south-eastern Brazil. Methods The historical distribution of 21 bird species was estimated using Maxent. After superimposing the present-day forest cover, we examined the environmental niches hypothesized to be occupied by these birds pre- and post-deforestation using environmental niche factor analysis (ENFA). ENFA was also used to compare conditions in the entire Atlantic forest ecosystem pre- and post-deforestation. The relative influence of land use and climate change on environmental conditions was examined using analysis of similarity and principal components analysis. Results Deforestation in the region has resulted in a decrease in suitable habitat of between 78% and 93% for the Atlantic forest birds included here. Further, Atlantic forest birds today experience generally wetter and less seasonal forest environments than they did historically. Models of future environmental conditions within forest remnants suggest generally warmer conditions and lower annual variation in rainfall due to greater precipitation in the driest quarter of the year. We found that deforestation resulted in a greater divergence of environmental conditions within Atlantic forests than that predicted by climate change. Main conclusions The changes in environmental conditions that have occurred with large-scale deforestation suggest that selective regimes may have shifted and, as a consequence, spatial patterns of intra-specific variation in morphology, behaviour and genes have probably been altered. Although the observed shifts in available environmental conditions resulting from deforestation are greater than those predicted by climate change, the latter will result in novel environments that exceed temperatures in any present-day climates and may lead to biotic attrition unless organisms can adapt to these warmer conditions. Conserving intra-specific diversity over the long term will require considering both how changes in the recent past have influenced contemporary populations and the impact of future environmental change.