Refined Estimation of Earthquake Source Parameters: Methods, Applications and Scaling Relationships

The objective of this work of thesis is the refined estimations of source parameters. To such a purpose we used two different approaches, one in the frequency domain and the other in the time domain. In frequency domain, we analyzed the P- and S-wave displacement spectra to estimate spectral parameters, that is corner frequencies and low frequency spectral amplitudes. We used a parametric modeling approach which is combined with a multi-step, non-linear inversion strategy and includes the correction for attenuation and site effects. The iterative multi-step procedure was applied to about 700 microearthquakes in the moment range 1011-1014 N•m and recorded at the dense, wide-dynamic range, seismic networks operating in Southern Apennines (Italy). The analysis of the source parameters is often complicated when we are not able to model the propagation accurately. In this case the empirical Green function approach is a very useful tool to study the seismic source properties. In fact the Empirical Green Functions (EGFs) consent to represent the contribution of propagation and site effects to signal without using approximate velocity models. An EGF is a recorded three-component set of time-histories of a small earthquake whose source mechanism and propagation path are similar to those of the master event. Thus, in time domain, the deconvolution method of Vallée (2004) was applied to calculate the source time functions (RSTFs) and to accurately estimate source size and rupture velocity. This technique was applied to 1) large event, that is Mw=6.3 2009 L’Aquila mainshock (Central Italy), 2) moderate events, that is cluster of earthquakes of 2009 L’Aquila sequence with moment magnitude ranging between 3 and 5.6, 3) small event, i.e. Mw=2.9 Laviano mainshock (Southern Italy).

Inferences on earthquake kinematic properties from data inversion: two different approaches

During my PhD, starting from the original formulations proposed by Bertrand et al., 2000 and Emolo & Zollo 2005, I developed inversion methods and applied then at different earthquakes. In particular large efforts have been devoted to the study of the model resolution and to the estimation of the model parameter errors. To study the source kinematic characteristics of the Christchurch earthquake we performed a joint inversion of strong-motion, GPS and InSAR data using a non-linear inversion method. Considering the complexity highlighted by superficial deformation data, we adopted a fault model consisting of two partially overlapping segments, with dimensions 15x11 and 7x7 km2, having different faulting styles. This two-fault model allows to better reconstruct the complex shape of the superficial deformation data. The total seismic moment resulting from the joint inversion is 3.0x1025 dyne.cm (Mw = 6.2) with an average rupture velocity of 2.0 km/s. Errors associated with the kinematic model have been estimated of around 20-30 %. The 2009 Aquila sequence was characterized by an intense aftershocks sequence that lasted several months. In this study we applied an inversion method that assumes as data the apparent Source Time Functions (aSTFs), to a Mw 4.0 aftershock of the Aquila sequence. The estimation of aSTFs was obtained using the deconvolution method proposed by Vallée et al., 2004. The inversion results show a heterogeneous slip distribution, characterized by two main slip patches located NW of the hypocenter, and a variable rupture velocity distribution (mean value of 2.5 km/s), showing a rupture front acceleration in between the two high slip zones. Errors of about 20% characterize the final estimated parameters.

Intermediate- and long-term earthquake prediction.

Progress in long- and intermediate-term earthquake prediction is reviewed emphasizing results from California. Earthquake prediction as a scientific discipline is still in its infancy. Probabilistic estimates that segments of several faults in California will be the sites of large shocks in the next 30 years are now generally accepted and widely used. Several examples are presented of changes in rates of moderate-size earthquakes and seismic moment release on time scales of a few to 30 years that occurred prior to large shocks. A distinction is made between large earthquakes that rupture the entire downdip width of the outer brittle part of the earth's crust and small shocks that do not. Large events occur quasi-periodically in time along a fault segment and happen much more often than predicted from the rates of small shocks along that segment. I am moderately optimistic about improving predictions of large events for time scales of a few to 30 years although little work of that type is currently underway in the United States. Precursory effects, like the changes in stress they reflect, should be examined from a tensorial rather than a scalar perspective. A broad pattern of increased numbers of moderate-size shocks in southern California since 1986 resembles the pattern in the 25 years before the great 1906 earthquake. Since it may be a long-term precursor to a great event on the southern San Andreas fault, that area deserves detailed intensified study.

The repetition of large-earthquake ruptures.

This survey of well-documented repeated fault rupture confirms that some faults have exhibited a "characteristic" behavior during repeated large earthquakes--that is, the magnitude, distribution, and style of slip on the fault has repeated during two or more consecutive events. In two cases faults exhibit slip functions that vary little from earthquake to earthquake. In one other well-documented case, however, fault lengths contrast markedly for two consecutive ruptures, but the amount of offset at individual sites was similar. Adjacent individual patches, 10 km or more in length, failed singly during one event and in tandem during the other. More complex cases of repetition may also represent the failure of several distinct patches. The faults of the 1992 Landers earthquake provide an instructive example of such complexity. Together, these examples suggest that large earthquakes commonly result from the failure of one or more patches, each characterized by a slip function that is roughly invariant through consecutive earthquake cycles. The persistence of these slip-patches through two or more large earthquakes indicates that some quasi-invariant physical property controls the pattern and magnitude of slip. These data seem incompatible with theoretical models that produce slip distributions that are highly variable in consecutive large events.

Implications of fault constitutive properties for earthquake prediction.

The rate- and state-dependent constitutive formulation for fault slip characterizes an exceptional variety of materials over a wide range of sliding conditions. This formulation provides a unified representation of diverse sliding phenomena including slip weakening over a characteristic sliding distance Dc, apparent fracture energy at a rupture front, time-dependent healing after rapid slip, and various other transient and slip rate effects. Laboratory observations and theoretical models both indicate that earthquake nucleation is accompanied by long intervals of accelerating slip. Strains from the nucleation process on buried faults generally could not be detected if laboratory values of Dc apply to faults in nature. However, scaling of Dc is presently an open question and the possibility exists that measurable premonitory creep may precede some earthquakes. Earthquake activity is modeled as a sequence of earthquake nucleation events. In this model, earthquake clustering arises from sensitivity of nucleation times to the stress changes induced by prior earthquakes. The model gives the characteristic Omori aftershock decay law and assigns physical interpretation to aftershock parameters. The seismicity formulation predicts large changes of earthquake probabilities result from stress changes. Two mechanisms for foreshocks are proposed that describe observed frequency of occurrence of foreshock-mainshock pairs by time and magnitude. With the first mechanism, foreshocks represent a manifestation of earthquake clustering in which the stress change at the time of the foreshock increases the probability of earthquakes at all magnitudes including the eventual mainshock. With the second model, accelerating fault slip on the mainshock nucleation zone triggers foreshocks.

How did varying levels of intensity of the 2005 Pakistan earthquake differentially affect women’s fertility decisions and children’s health outcomes?

This paper uses a difference in difference model to investigate the impact of a large scale and high mortality 2005 earthquake in Pakistan on women’s fertility decisions and children’s health outcomes. Using a nationally representative, cross sectional DHS data from 2006 and geographical data from USGS, this paper investigates how variation in earthquake intensity levels can differentially impact total fertility for women and the likelihood of children suffering from diseases such as diarrhea, Acute Respiratory Infections (ARI) and fever. The post-earthquake results demonstrate a statistically significant increase in total fertility for areas closer to the epicenter of the earthquake, within a 100km radius of the rupture surface and at higher altitudes. Similarly, for children who were in-utero at the time of the earthquake, the probability of having early symptoms of ARI or fever was much smaller in lower earthquake intensity zones compared to the highest intensity zone.

Local and global responses to disaster: #eqnz and the Christchurch earthquake

Building on innovative frameworks for analysing and visualising the tweet data available from Twitter, developed by the authors, this paper examines the patterns of tweeting activity that occurred during and after the Feb, 2011 Christchurch earthquake. Local and global responses to the disaster were organised around the pre-existing hashtag #eqnz, which averaged some 100 tweets per minute in the hours following the earthquake. The paper identifies the key contributors to the #eqnz network and shows the key themes of their messages. Emerging from this analysis is a more detailed understanding of Twitter and other social media as key elements in the overall ecology of the media forms used for crisis communication. Such uses point both to the importance of social media as a tool for affected communities to self-organise their disaster response and recovery activities, and as a tool for emergency management services to disseminate key information and receive updates from local communities.

Early-mid Cretaceous tectonic evolution of eastern Gondwana : from silicic LIP magmatism to continental rupture

The Early–mid Cretaceous marks the confluence of three major continental-scale events in eastern Gondwana: (1) the emplacement of a Silicic Large Igneous Province (LIP) near the continental margin; (2) the volcaniclastic fill, transgression and regression of a major epicontinental seaway developed over at least a quarter of the Australian continent; and (3) epeirogenic uplift, exhumation and continental rupturing culminating in the opening of the Tasman Basin c. 84 Ma. The Whitsunday Silicic LIP event had widespread impact, producing both substantial extrusive volumes of dominantly silicic pyroclastic material and coeval first-cycle volcanogenic sediment that accumulated within many eastern Australian sedimentary basins, and principally in the Great Australian Basin system (>2 Mkm3 combined volume). The final pulse of volcanism and volcanogenic sedimentation at c. 105–95 Ma coincided with epicontinental seaway regression, which shows a lack of correspondence with the global sea-level curve, and alternatively records a wider, continental-scale effect of volcanism and rift tectonism. Widespread igneous underplating related to this LIP event is evident from high paleogeothermal gradients and regional hydrothermal fluid flow detectable in the shallow crust and over a broad region. Enhanced CO2 fluxing through sedimentary basins also records indirectly, large-scale, LIP-related mafic underplating. A discrete episode of rapid crustal cooling and exhumation began c. 100–90 Ma along the length of the eastern Australian margin, related to an enhanced phase of continental rifting that was largely amagmatic, and probably a switch from wide–more narrow rift modes. Along-margin variations in detachment fault architecture produced narrow (SE Australia) and wide continental margins with marginal, submerged continental plateaux (NE Australia). Long-lived NE-trending cross-orogen lineaments controlled the switch from narrow to wide continental margin geometries.

Recovering from the earthquake : early childhood teachers and children collaboratively telling stories about their experiences

Purpose – Traumatic events can cause post-traumatic stress disorder due to the severity of the often unexpected events. The purpose of this paper is to reveal how conversations around lived experiences of traumatic events, such as the Christchurch earthquake in February 2011, can work as a strategy for people to come to terms with their experiences collaboratively. By encouraging young children to recall and tell of their earthquake stories with their early childhood teachers they can begin to respond, renew, and recover (Brown, 2012), and prevent or minimise more stress being developed. Design/methodology/approach – The study involved collecting data of the participating children taking turns to wear a wireless microphone where their interactions with each other and with teachers were video recorded over one week in November 2011. A total of eight hours and 21 minutes of footage was collected; four minutes and 19 seconds of that footage are presented and analysed in this paper. The footage was watched repeatedly and transcribed using conversation analysis methods (Sacks, 1995). Findings – Through analysing the detailed turn-taking utterances between teachers and children, the orderliness of the co-production of remembering is revealed to demonstrate that each member orients to being in agreement about what actually happened. These episodes of story telling between the teachers and children demonstrate how the teachers encourage the children to tell about their experiences through actively engaging in conversations with them about the earthquake. Originality/value – The conversation analysis approach used in this research was found to be useful in investigating aspects of disasters that the participants themselves remember as important and real. This approach offers a unique insight into understanding how the earthquake event was experienced and reflected on by young children and their teachers, and so can inform future policy and provision in post-disaster situations.