Hybrid Method to Assess Sensitive Process Interruption Costs Due to Faults in Electric Power Distribution Networks

This paper shows a new hybrid method for risk assessment regarding interruptions in sensitive processes due to faults in electric power distribution systems. This method determines indices related to long duration interruptions and short duration voltage variations (SDVV), such as voltage sags and swells in each customer supplied by the distribution network. Frequency of such occurrences and their impact on customer processes are determined for each bus and classified according to their corresponding magnitude and duration. The method is based on information regarding network configuration, system parameters and protective devices. It randomly generates a number of fault scenarios in order to assess risk areas regarding long duration interruptions and voltage sags and swells in an especially inventive way, including frequency of events according to their magnitude and duration. Based on sensitivity curves, the method determines frequency indices regarding disruption in customer processes that represent equipment malfunction and possible process interruptions due to voltage sags and swells. Such approach allows for the assessment of the annual costs associated with each one of the evaluated power quality indices.

Effect of material anisotropy on the onset of convective flow in three-dimensional fluid-saturated faults

In order to investigate the effect of material anisotropy on convective instability of three-dimensional fluid-saturated faults, an exact analytical solution for the critical Rayleigh number of three-dimensional convective flow has been obtained. Using this critical Rayleigh number, effects of different permeability ratios and thermal conductivity ratios on convective instability of a vertically oriented three-dimensional fault have been examined in detail. It has been recognized that (1) if the fault material is isotropic in the horizontal direction, the horizontal to vertical permeability ratio has a significant effect on the critical Rayleigh number of the three-dimensional fault system, but the horizontal to vertical thermal conductivity ratio has little influence on the convective instability of the system, and (2) if the fault material is isotropic in the fault plane, the thermal conductivity ratio of the fault normal to plane has a considerable effect on the critical Rayleigh number of the three-dimensional fault system, but the effect of the permeability ratio of the fault normal to plane on the critical Rayleigh number of three-dimensional convective flow is negligible.

A 2D numerical model for simulating the physics of fault systems

Simulations provide a powerful means to help gain the understanding of crustal fault system physics required to progress towards the goal of earthquake forecasting. Cellular Automata are efficient enough to probe system dynamics but their simplifications render interpretations questionable. In contrast, sophisticated elasto-dynamic models yield more convincing results but are too computationally demanding to explore phase space. To help bridge this gap, we develop a simple 2D elastodynamic model of parallel fault systems. The model is discretised onto a triangular lattice and faults are specified as split nodes along horizontal rows in the lattice. A simple numerical approach is presented for calculating the forces at medium and split nodes such that general nonlinear frictional constitutive relations can be modeled along faults. Single and multi-fault simulation examples are presented using a nonlinear frictional relation that is slip and slip-rate dependent in order to illustrate the model.

Psychosocial sequelae of the 1989 Newcastle earthquake .2. Exposure and morbidity profiles during the first 2 years post-disaster

Background. A sample of 1089 Australian adults was selected for the longitudinal component of the Quake Impact Study, a 2-year, four-phase investigation of the psychosocial effects of the 1989 Newcastle earthquake. Of these, 845 (78%) completed a survey 6 months post-disaster as well as one or more of the three follow-up surveys. Methods. The phase I survey was used to construct dimensional indices of self-reported exposure to threat the disruption and also to classify subjects by their membership of five 'at risk' groups (the injured; the displaced; owners of damaged small businesses; helpers in threat and non-threat situations). Psychological morbidity was assessed at each phase using the 12-item General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12) and the Impact of Event Scale (IES). Results. Psychological morbidity declined over time but tended to stabilize at about 12 months post-disaster for general morbidity (GHQ-12) and at about 18 months for trauma-related (IES) morbidity. Initial exposure to threat and/or disruption were significant predictors of psychological morbidity throughout the study and had superior predictive power to membership of the targeted 'at risk' groups. The degree of ongoing disruption and other life events since the earthquake were also significant predictors of morbidity. The injured reported the highest levels of distress, but there was a relative absence of morbidity among the helpers. Conclusions. Future disaster research should carefully assess the threat and disruption experiences of the survivors at the time of the event and monitor ongoing disruptions in the aftermath in order to target interventions more effectively.

Psychosocial sequelae of the 1989 Newcastle earthquake .3. Role of vulnerability factors in postdisaster morbidity

Background. This paper examines the contributions of dispositional and non-dispositional factors to post-disaster psychological morbidity. Data reported are from the 845 participants in the longitudinal component of the Quake Impact Study. Methods. The phase 1 survey was used to construct dimensional indices of threat and disruption exposure. Subsequently, a range of dispositional characteristics were measured, including neuroticism, personal hopefulness and defence style. The main morbidity measures were the General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12) and Impact of Event Scale (IES). Results. Dispositional characteristics were the best predictors of psychological morbidity throughout the 2 years post-disaster, contributing substantially more to the variance in morbidity (12-39%) than did initial exposure (5-12%), but the extent of their contribution was greater for general (GHQ-12) than for post-traumatic (IES) morbidity. Among the non-dispositional factors, avoidance coping contributed equally to general and post-traumatic morbidity (pr = 0.24). Life events since the earthquake (pr = 0.18), poor social relationships (pr = -0.25) and ongoing earthquake-related disruptions (pr = 0.22) also contributed to general morbidity, while only the latter contributed significantly to post-traumatic morbidity (pr = 0.15). Conclusions. Medium-term post-earthquake morbidity appears to be a function of multiple factors whose contributions vary depending on the type of morbidity experienced and include trait vulnerability, the nature and degree of initial exposure, avoidance coping and the nature and severity of subsequent events.

A synthesis of the findings from the Quake Impact Study: A two year investigation of the psychosocial sequelae of the 1989 Newcastle earthquake

This paper summarises the major findings from the Quake Impact Study (QIS), a four-phase longitudinal project that was conducted in the aftermath of the 1989 Newcastle (Australia) earthquake. A total of 3,484 subjects participated in at least one component of the QIS, comprising a stratified sample of 3,007 drawn from community electoral rolls and 477 from specially targeted supplementary samples (the injured, the displaced, the owners of damaged businesses, and the helpers). Subjects' initial earthquake experiences were rated in terms of weighted indices of exposure to threat and disruption. Psychological morbidity was measured at each phase using the General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12) and the Impact of Event Scale (IES). Selected findings and key conclusions are presented for each of six areas of investigation: service utilisation during the first 6 months post-disaster; patterns of earthquake experience and short-term (6-month) psychosocial outcome; earthquake exposure and medium term (2-year) psychosocial outcome; vulnerability factors and medium-term psychosocial outcome: specific community groups at increased risk (e.g., the elderly and immigrants from non-English-speaking backgrounds); the effects of stress debriefing for helpers. Threshold morbidity (i.e., likely caseness) rates are also presented for a broad range of subgroups. In addition to presenting an overview of the QIS, this paper synthesises the major findings and discusses their implications for future disaster management and research from a mental health perspective.

Simulation of the load-unload response ratio and critical sensitivity in the lattice solid model

The Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) method is an intermediate-term earthquake prediction approach that has shown considerable promise. It involves calculating the ratio of a specified energy release measure during loading and unloading where loading and unloading periods are determined from the earth tide induced perturbations in the Coulomb Failure Stress on optimally oriented faults. In the lead-up to large earthquakes, high LURR values are frequently observed a few months or years prior to the event. These signals may have a similar origin to the observed accelerating seismic moment release (AMR) prior to many large earthquakes or may be due to critical sensitivity of the crust when a large earthquake is imminent. As a first step towards studying the underlying physical mechanism for the LURR observations, numerical studies are conducted using the particle based lattice solid model (LSM) to determine whether LURR observations can be reproduced. The model is initialized as a heterogeneous 2-D block made up of random-sized particles bonded by elastic-brittle links. The system is subjected to uniaxial compression from rigid driving plates on the upper and lower edges of the model. Experiments are conducted using both strain and stress control to load the plates. A sinusoidal stress perturbation is added to the gradual compressional loading to simulate loading and unloading cycles and LURR is calculated. The results reproduce signals similar to those observed in earthquake prediction practice with a high LURR value followed by a sudden drop prior to macroscopic failure of the sample. The results suggest that LURR provides a good predictor for catastrophic failure in elastic-brittle systems and motivate further research to study the underlying physical mechanisms and statistical properties of high LURR values. The results provide encouragement for earthquake prediction research and the use of advanced simulation models to probe the physics of earthquakes.

Simulation of the influence of rate- and state-dependent friction on the macroscopic behavior of complex fault zones with the lattice solid model

In order to understand the earthquake nucleation process, we need to understand the effective frictional behavior of faults with complex geometry and fault gouge zones. One important aspect of this is the interaction between the friction law governing the behavior of the fault on the microscopic level and the resulting macroscopic behavior of the fault zone. Numerical simulations offer a possibility to investigate the behavior of faults on many different scales and thus provide a means to gain insight into fault zone dynamics on scales which are not accessible to laboratory experiments. Numerical experiments have been performed to investigate the influence of the geometric configuration of faults with a rate- and state-dependent friction at the particle contacts on the effective frictional behavior of these faults. The numerical experiments are designed to be similar to laboratory experiments by DIETERICH and KILGORE (1994) in which a slide-hold-slide cycle was performed between two blocks of material and the resulting peak friction was plotted vs. holding time. Simulations with a flat fault without a fault gouge have been performed to verify the implementation. These have shown close agreement with comparable laboratory experiments. The simulations performed with a fault containing fault gouge have demonstrated a strong dependence of the critical slip distance D-c on the roughness of the fault surfaces and are in qualitative agreement with laboratory experiments.

Load-unload response ratio and accelerating moment/energy release critical region scaling and earthquake prediction

The main idea of the Load-Unload Response Ratio (LURR) is that when a system is stable, its response to loading corresponds to its response to unloading, whereas when the system is approaching an unstable state, the response to loading and unloading becomes quite different. High LURR values and observations of Accelerating Moment/Energy Release (AMR/AER) prior to large earthquakes have led different research groups to suggest intermediate-term earthquake prediction is possible and imply that the LURR and AMR/AER observations may have a similar physical origin. To study this possibility, we conducted a retrospective examination of several Australian and Chinese earthquakes with magnitudes ranging from 5.0 to 7.9, including Australia's deadly Newcastle earthquake and the devastating Tangshan earthquake. Both LURR values and best-fit power-law time-to-failure functions were computed using data within a range of distances from the epicenter. Like the best-fit power-law fits in AMR/AER, the LURR value was optimal using data within a certain epicentral distance implying a critical region for LURR. Furthermore, LURR critical region size scales with mainshock magnitude and is similar to the AMR/AER critical region size. These results suggest a common physical origin for both the AMR/AER and LURR observations. Further research may provide clues that yield an understanding of this mechanism and help lead to a solid foundation for intermediate-term earthquake prediction.

Evaluating Tsunami Impact on the Gulf of Cadiz Coast (Northeast Atlantic).

The Gulf of Cadiz coasts are exposed to tsunamis. Emergency planning tools are now taking into account this fact, especially because a series of historical occurrences were strikingly significant, having left strong evidence behind, in the mareographic records, the geological evidence or simply the memory of the populations. The study area is a strip along the Algarve coast, south Portugal, an area known to have been heavily impacted by the 1 November 1755 event. In this study we use two different tsunami scenarios generated by the rupture of two thrust faults identified in the area, corresponding to 8.1-8.3 magnitude earthquakes. Tsunami propagation and inundation computation is performed using a non-linear shallow water code with bottom friction. Numerical modeling results are presented in terms of flow depth and current velocity with maximum values of 7 m and 8 m/s for inundation depth and flow speed, respectively. These results constitute a valuable tool for local authorities, emergency and decision planners to define the priority zones where tsunami mitigation measures must be implemented and to develop tsunami-resilient communities.

The source of the 1722 Algarve earthquake: evidence from MCS and tsunami data

The 27 December 1722 Algarve earthquake destroyed a large area in southern Portugal generating a local tsunami that inundated the shallow areas of Tavira. It is unclear whether its source was located onshore or offshore and, in any case, what was the tectonic source responsible for the event. We analyze available historical information concerning macroseismicity and the tsunami to discuss the most probable location of the source. We also review available seismotectonic knowledge of the offshore region close to the probable epicenter, selecting a set of four candidate sources. We simulate tsunamis produced by these candidate sources assuming that the sea bottom displacement is caused by a compressive dislocation over a rectangular fault, as given by the half-space homogeneous elastic approach, and we use numerical modeling to study wave propagation and run-up. We conclude that the 27 December 1722 Tavira earthquake and tsunami was probably generated offshore, close to 37 degrees 01'N, 7 degrees 49'W.

Geologia estrutural da região Povoação-Nordeste (Ilha de São Miguel, Açores)

Dissertação de Mestrado, Vulcanologia e Riscos Geológicos, 10 de Novembro de 2005, Universidade dos Açores.

Fractional dynamics and MDS visualization of earthquake phenomena

This paper analyses earthquake data in the perspective of dynamical systems and fractional calculus (FC). This new standpoint uses Multidimensional Scaling (MDS) as a powerful clustering and visualization tool. FC extends the concepts of integrals and derivatives to non-integer and complex orders. MDS is a technique that produces spatial or geometric representations of complex objects, such that those objects that are perceived to be similar in some sense are placed on the MDS maps forming clusters. In this study, over three million seismic occurrences, covering the period from January 1, 1904 up to March 14, 2012 are analysed. The events are characterized by their magnitude and spatiotemporal distributions and are divided into fifty groups, according to the Flinn–Engdahl (F–E) seismic regions of Earth. Several correlation indices are proposed to quantify the similarities among regions. MDS maps are proven as an intuitive and useful visual representation of the complex relationships that are present among seismic events, which may not be perceived on traditional geographic maps. Therefore, MDS constitutes a valid alternative to classic visualization tools for understanding the global behaviour of earthquakes.

Dynamic analysis of earthquake phenomena by means of pseudo phase plane

This paper analyses earthquake data in the perspective of dynamical systems and its Pseudo Phase Plane representation. The seismic data is collected from the Bulletin of the International Seismological Centre. The geological events are characterised by their magnitude and geographical location and described by means of time series of sequences of Dirac impulses. Fifty groups of data series are considered, according to the Flinn-Engdahl seismic regions of Earth. For each region, Pearson’s correlation coefficient is used to find the optimal time delay for reconstructing the Pseudo Phase Plane. The Pseudo Phase Plane plots are then analysed and characterised.

How a cyber-physical system can efficiently obtain a snapshot of physical information even in the presence of sensor faults

We present a distributed algorithm for cyber-physical systems to obtain a snapshot of sensor data. The snapshot is an approximate representation of sensor data; it is an interpolation as a function of space coordinates. The new algorithm exploits a prioritized medium access control (MAC) protocol to efficiently transmit information of the sensor data. It scales to a very large number of sensors and it is able to operate in the presence of sensor faults.