Real-Time Bayesian Analysis of Ground Motion Envelopes for Earthquake Early Warning

Current earthquake early warning systems usually make magnitude and location predictions and send out a warning to the users based on those predictions. We describe an algorithm that assesses the validity of the predictions in real-time. Our algorithm monitors the envelopes of horizontal and vertical acceleration, velocity, and displacement. We compare the observed envelopes with the ones predicted by Cua & Heaton's envelope ground motion prediction equations (Cua 2005). We define a "test function" as the logarithm of the ratio between observed and predicted envelopes at every second in real-time. Once the envelopes deviate beyond an acceptable threshold, we declare a misfit. Kurtosis and skewness of a time evolving test function are used to rapidly identify a misfit. Real-time kurtosis and skewness calculations are also inputs to both probabilistic (Logistic Regression and Bayesian Logistic Regression) and nonprobabilistic (Least Squares and Linear Discriminant Analysis) models that ultimately decide if there is an unacceptable level of misfit. This algorithm is designed to work at a wide range of amplitude scales. When tested with synthetic and actual seismic signals from past events, it works for both small and large events.

Rhetorical Topographies of Post-Earthquake L'Aquila: Locality, Activism, and Citizenship Engagement

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2014

Fractional dynamics and MDS visualization of earthquake phenomena

This paper analyses earthquake data in the perspective of dynamical systems and fractional calculus (FC). This new standpoint uses Multidimensional Scaling (MDS) as a powerful clustering and visualization tool. FC extends the concepts of integrals and derivatives to non-integer and complex orders. MDS is a technique that produces spatial or geometric representations of complex objects, such that those objects that are perceived to be similar in some sense are placed on the MDS maps forming clusters. In this study, over three million seismic occurrences, covering the period from January 1, 1904 up to March 14, 2012 are analysed. The events are characterized by their magnitude and spatiotemporal distributions and are divided into fifty groups, according to the Flinn–Engdahl (F–E) seismic regions of Earth. Several correlation indices are proposed to quantify the similarities among regions. MDS maps are proven as an intuitive and useful visual representation of the complex relationships that are present among seismic events, which may not be perceived on traditional geographic maps. Therefore, MDS constitutes a valid alternative to classic visualization tools for understanding the global behaviour of earthquakes.

Dynamic analysis of earthquake phenomena by means of pseudo phase plane

This paper analyses earthquake data in the perspective of dynamical systems and its Pseudo Phase Plane representation. The seismic data is collected from the Bulletin of the International Seismological Centre. The geological events are characterised by their magnitude and geographical location and described by means of time series of sequences of Dirac impulses. Fifty groups of data series are considered, according to the Flinn-Engdahl seismic regions of Earth. For each region, Pearson’s correlation coefficient is used to find the optimal time delay for reconstructing the Pseudo Phase Plane. The Pseudo Phase Plane plots are then analysed and characterised.

Multidimensional scaling visualization of earthquake phenomena

Earthquakes are associated with negative events, such as large number of casualties, destruction of buildings and infrastructures, or emergence of tsunamis. In this paper, we apply the Multidimensional Scaling (MDS) analysis to earthquake data. MDS is a set of techniques that produce spatial or geometric representations of complex objects, such that, objects perceived to be similar/distinct in some sense are placed nearby/distant on the MDS maps. The interpretation of the charts is based on the resulting clusters since MDS produces a different locus for each similarity measure. In this study, over three million seismic occurrences, covering the period from January 1, 1904 up to March 14, 2012 are analyzed. The events, characterized by their magnitude and spatiotemporal distributions, are divided into groups, either according to the Flinn–Engdahl seismic regions of Earth or using a rectangular grid based in latitude and longitude coordinates. Space-time and Space-frequency correlation indices are proposed to quantify the similarities among events. MDS has the advantage of avoiding sensitivity to the non-uniform spatial distribution of seismic data, resulting from poorly instrumented areas, and is well suited for accessing dynamics of complex systems. MDS maps are proven as an intuitive and useful visual representation of the complex relationships that are present among seismic events, which may not be perceived on traditional geographic maps. Therefore, MDS constitutes a valid alternative to classic visualization tools, for understanding the global behavior of earthquakes.

Educating for earthquake science and risk in a tectonically slowly deforming region

Over the past decade, scientists have been called to participate more actively in public education and outreach (E&O). This is particularly true in fields of significant societal impact, such as earthquake science. Local earthquake risk culture plays a role in the way that the public engages in educational efforts. In this article, we describe an adapted E&O program for earthquake science and risk. The program is tailored for a region of slow tectonic deformation, where large earthquakes are extreme events that occur with long return periods. The adapted program has two main goals: (1) to increase the awareness and preparedness of the population to earthquake and related risks (tsunami, liquefaction, fires, etc.), and (2) to increase the quality of earthquake science education, so as to attract talented students to geosciences. Our integrated program relies on activities tuned for different population groups who have different interests and abilities, namely young children, teenagers, young adults, and professionals.

Constraining the active tectonic deformation of Andaman-Nicobar Arc in the background of December 26,2004 Great Sumatra-Andaman Earthquake

The Andaman-Nicobar Islands in the Bay of Bengal lies in a zone where the Indian plate subducts beneath the Burmese microplate, and therefore forms a belt of frequent earthquakes. Few efforts, not withstanding the available historical and instrumental data were not effectively used before the Mw 9.3 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake to draw any inference on the spatial and temporal distribution of large subduction zone earthquakes in this region. An attempt to constrain the active crustal deformation of the Andaman-Nicobar arc in the background of the December 26, 2004 Great Sumatra-Andaman megathrust earthquake is made here, thereby presenting a unique data set representing the pre-seismic convergence and co-seismic displacement.Understanding the mechanisms of the subduction zone earthquakes is both challenging sCientifically and important for assessing the related earthquake hazards. In many subduction zones, thrust earthquakes may have characteristic patterns in space and time. However, the mechanism of mega events still remains largely unresolved.Large subduction zone earthquakes are usually associated with high amplitude co-seismic deformation above the plate boundary megathrust and the elastic relaxation of the fore-arc. These are expressed as vertical changes in land level with the up-dip part of the rupture surface uplifted and the areas above the down-dip edge subsided. One of the most characteristic pattern associated with the inter-seismic era is that the deformation is in an opposite sense that of co-seismic period.This work was started in 2002 to understand the tectonic deformation along the Andaman-Nicobar arc using seismological, geological and geodetic data. The occurrence of the 2004 megathrust earthquake gave a new dimension to this study, by providing an opportunity to examine the co-seismic deformation associated with the greatest earthquake to have occurred since the advent of Global Positioning System (GPS) and broadband seismometry. The major objectives of this study are to assess the pre-seismic stress regimes, to determine the pre-seismic convergence rate, to analyze and interpret the pattern of co-seismic displacement and slip on various segments and to look out for any possible recurrence interval for megathrust event occurrence for Andaman-Nicobar subduction zone. This thesis is arranged in six chapters with further subdivisions dealing all the above aspects.

The Chilean earthquake of 27 February 2010 an overview

Includes bibliography

Refined Estimation of Earthquake Source Parameters: Methods, Applications and Scaling Relationships

The objective of this work of thesis is the refined estimations of source parameters. To such a purpose we used two different approaches, one in the frequency domain and the other in the time domain. In frequency domain, we analyzed the P- and S-wave displacement spectra to estimate spectral parameters, that is corner frequencies and low frequency spectral amplitudes. We used a parametric modeling approach which is combined with a multi-step, non-linear inversion strategy and includes the correction for attenuation and site effects. The iterative multi-step procedure was applied to about 700 microearthquakes in the moment range 1011-1014 N•m and recorded at the dense, wide-dynamic range, seismic networks operating in Southern Apennines (Italy). The analysis of the source parameters is often complicated when we are not able to model the propagation accurately. In this case the empirical Green function approach is a very useful tool to study the seismic source properties. In fact the Empirical Green Functions (EGFs) consent to represent the contribution of propagation and site effects to signal without using approximate velocity models. An EGF is a recorded three-component set of time-histories of a small earthquake whose source mechanism and propagation path are similar to those of the master event. Thus, in time domain, the deconvolution method of Vallée (2004) was applied to calculate the source time functions (RSTFs) and to accurately estimate source size and rupture velocity. This technique was applied to 1) large event, that is Mw=6.3 2009 L’Aquila mainshock (Central Italy), 2) moderate events, that is cluster of earthquakes of 2009 L’Aquila sequence with moment magnitude ranging between 3 and 5.6, 3) small event, i.e. Mw=2.9 Laviano mainshock (Southern Italy).

Seismic sequences analysis for estimation of earthquake source parameters: corner frequency, stress drop, and seismic moment observations

The present study has been carried out with the following objectives: i) To investigate the attributes of source parameters of local and regional earthquakes; ii) To estimate, as accurately as possible, M0, fc, Δσ and their standard errors to infer their relationship with source size; iii) To quantify high-frequency earthquake ground motion and to study the source scaling. This work is based on observational data of micro, small and moderate -earthquakes for three selected seismic sequences, namely Parkfield (CA, USA), Maule (Chile) and Ferrara (Italy). For the Parkfield seismic sequence (CA), a data set of 757 (42 clusters) repeating micro-earthquakes (0 ≤ MW ≤ 2), collected using borehole High Resolution Seismic Network (HRSN), have been analyzed and interpreted. We used the coda methodology to compute spectral ratios to obtain accurate values of fc , Δσ, and M0 for three target clusters (San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Hawaii) of our data. We also performed a general regression on peak ground velocities to obtain reliable seismic spectra of all earthquakes. For the Maule seismic sequence, a data set of 172 aftershocks of the 2010 MW 8.8 earthquake (3.7 ≤ MW ≤ 6.2), recorded by more than 100 temporary broadband stations, have been analyzed and interpreted to quantify high-frequency earthquake ground motion in this subduction zone. We completely calibrated the excitation and attenuation of the ground motion in Central Chile. For the Ferrara sequence, we calculated moment tensor solutions for 20 events from MW 5.63 (the largest main event occurred on May 20 2012), down to MW 3.2 by a 1-D velocity model for the crust beneath the Pianura Padana, using all the geophysical and geological information available for the area. The PADANIA model allowed a numerical study on the characteristics of the ground motion in the thick sediments of the flood plain.

Cascading events triggering industrial accidents: quantitative assessment of NaTech and domino scenarios

The so called cascading events, which lead to high-impact low-frequency scenarios are rising concern worldwide. A chain of events result in a major industrial accident with dreadful (and often unpredicted) consequences. Cascading events can be the result of the realization of an external threat, like a terrorist attack a natural disaster or of “domino effect”. During domino events the escalation of a primary accident is driven by the propagation of the primary event to nearby units, causing an overall increment of the accident severity and an increment of the risk associated to an industrial installation. Also natural disasters, like intense flooding, hurricanes, earthquake and lightning are found capable to enhance the risk of an industrial area, triggering loss of containment of hazardous materials and in major accidents. The scientific community usually refers to those accidents as “NaTechs”: natural events triggering industrial accidents. In this document, a state of the art of available approaches to the modelling, assessment, prevention and management of domino and NaTech events is described. On the other hand, the relevant work carried out during past studies still needs to be consolidated and completed, in order to be applicable in a real industrial framework. New methodologies, developed during my research activity, aimed at the quantitative assessment of domino and NaTech accidents are presented. The tools and methods provided within this very study had the aim to assist the progress toward a consolidated and universal methodology for the assessment and prevention of cascading events, contributing to enhance safety and sustainability of the chemical and process industry.

EVALUATION OF THE EVOLVING STRESS FIELD OF THE YELLOWSTONE VOLCANIC PLATEAU FROM 1988 TO 2010 FROM EARTHQUAKE FIRST MOTIONS INVERSION

Within the Yellowstone National Park, Wyoming, the silicic Yellowstone volcanic field is one of the most active volcanic systems all over the world. Although the last rhyolite eruption occurred around 70,000 years ago, Yellowstone is still believed to be volcanically active, due to high hydrothermal and seismic activity. The earthquake data used in this study cover the period of time between 1988 and 2010. Earthquake relocations and a set of 369 well-constrained, double-couple, focal mechanism solutions were computed. Events were grouped according to location and time to investigate trends in faulting. The majority of the events has oblique, normal-faulting solutions. The overall direction of extension throughout the 0.64 Ma Yellowstone caldera looks nearly ENE, consistently with the direction of alignments of volcanic vents within the caldera, but detailed study revealed spatial and temporal variations. Stress-field solutions for different areas and time periods were calculated from earthquake focal mechanism inversion. A well-resolved rotation of σ3 was found, from NNE-SSW near the Hebgen Lake fault zone, to ENE-WSW near Norris Junction. In particular, the σ3 direction changed throughout the years in the Norris Junction area, from being ENE-WSW, as calculated in the study by Waite and Smith (2004), to NNE-SSW, while the other σ3 directions are mostly unchanged over time. The Yellowstone caldera was subject to periods of net uplift and subsidence over the past century, explained in previous studies as caused by expanding or contracting sills, at different depths. Based on the models used to explain these deformation periods, we investigated the relationship between variability in aseismic deformation and seismic activity and faulting styles. Focal mechanisms and P and T axes were divided into temporal and depth intervals, in order to identify spatial or temporal trends in deformation. The presence of “chocolate tablet” structures, with composite dilational faults, was identified in many stages of the deformation history both in the Norris Geyser Basin area and inside the caldera. Strike-slip component movement was found in a depth interval below a contracting sill, indicating the movement of magma towards the caldera.

Social Work Skills in Working with Survivors of Earthquake: A Social Work Intervention - Iran

The Loss, grief and other problems are events that most of people experience them during their Life. The earthquake is a disaster that makes people experience loss, grief and problems simultaneously. This crisis affects on survivors as much as they face to dangers in their lives. Thus, most of them need to being supported until they can solve their problems, be relaxed and do their daily activities. We know that the profession of social workers is to assist individuals who are seeking help. But there is a Problem, how do they help the clients efficiently? Especially, those clients who have suffered earthquake. Generally, the role of social workers in helping the survivors of earthquake is significant. To this end, the present paper tries to describe the process of social casework and those skills required for social workers to help the survivors. These skills include: situational supporting, hopefulness making, consoling, assuring, concentrating, solutions developing and refer.

An evaluation of seismic hazard in La Hispaniola, after the 2010 Haiti earthquake

An evaluation of the seismic hazard in La Hispaniola Island has been carried out, as part of the cooperative project SISMO-HAITI, supported by the Technical University of Madrid (UPM) and developed by several Spanish Universities, the National Observatory of Environment and Vulnerability) ONEV of Haiti, and with contributions from the Puerto Rico Seismic Network (PRSN) and University Seismological Institute of Dominican Republic (ISU). The study was aimed at obtaining results suitable for seismic design purposes. It started with the elaboration of a seismic catalogue for the Hispaniola Island, requiring an exhaustive revision of data reported by more than 20 seismic agencies, apart from these from the PRSN and ISU. The final catalogue contains 96 historical earthquakes and 1690 instrumental events, and it was homogenized to moment magnitude, Mw. Seismotectonic models proposed for the region were revised and a new regional zonation was proposed, taking into account geological andtectonic data, seismicity, focal mechanisms, and GPS observations. In parallel, attenuation models for subduction and crustal zones were revised in previous projects and the most suitable for the Caribbean plate were selected. Then, a seismic hazard analysis was developed in terms of peak ground acceleration, PGA, and spectral accelerations, SA (T), for periods of 0.1, 0.2, 0.5, 1 and 2s, using the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment (PSHA) methodology. As a result, different hazard maps were obtained for the quoted parameters, together with Uniform Hazard Spectra for Port au Prince and the main cities in the country. Hazard deaggregation was also carried out in these towns, for the target motion given by the PGA and SA (1s) obtained for return periods of 475, 975 and 2475 years. Therefore, the controlling earthquakes for short- and long-period target motions were derived. This study was started a few months after the 2010 earthquake, as a response to an aid request from the Haitian government to the UPM, and the results are available for the definition of the first building code in Haiti.