A world full of surprises:Bayesian theory of surprise to quantify degrees of uncertainty

In the specific area of software engineering (SE) for self-adaptive systems (SASs) there is a growing research awareness about the synergy between SE and artificial intelligence (AI). However, just few significant results have been published so far. In this paper, we propose a novel and formal Bayesian definition of surprise as the basis for quantitative analysis to measure degrees of uncertainty and deviations of self-adaptive systems from normal behavior. A surprise measures how observed data affects the models or assumptions of the world during runtime. The key idea is that a "surprising" event can be defined as one that causes a large divergence between the belief distributions prior to and posterior to the event occurring. In such a case the system may decide either to adapt accordingly or to flag that an abnormal situation is happening. In this paper, we discuss possible applications of Bayesian theory of surprise for the case of self-adaptive systems using Bayesian dynamic decision networks. Copyright © 2014 ACM.

Counter-stereotypes reduce emotional intergroup bias by eliciting surprise in the face of unexpected category combinations

In three experiments we investigated the impact that exposure to counter-stereotypes has on emotional reactions to outgroups. In Experiment 1, thinking about gender counter-stereotypes attenuated stereotyped emotions toward females and males. In Experiment 2, an immigrant counterstereotype attenuated stereotyped emotions toward this outgroup and reduced dehumanization tendencies. Experiment 3 replicated these results using an alternative measure of humanization. In both Experiments 2 and 3 sequential meditational analysis revealed that counter-stereotypes produced feelings of surprise which, in turn, elicited a cognitive process of expectancy violation which resulted in attenuated stereotyped emotions and an enhanced use of uniquely human characteristics to describe the outgroup. The findings extend research supporting the usefulness of counter-stereotype exposure for reducing prejudice and highlight its positive impact on intergroup emotions.

Addressing surprise and uncertain futures in marine science, marine governance, and society

On an increasingly populated planet, with decreasing biodiversity and limited new opportunities to tap unexploited natural resources, there is a clear need to adjust aspects of marine management and governance. Although sectarian management has succeeded in addressing and managing some important threats to marine ecosystems, unintended consequences are often associated with overlooking nonlinear interactions and cumulative impacts that increase the risk of surprises in social-ecological systems. In this paper, we begin to untangle science-governance-society (SGS) interdependencies in marine systems by considering how to recognize the risk of surprise in social and ecological dynamics. Equally important is drawing attention to our state of preparedness, adaptation, and timeliness of response in ecosystem governance and society, which involve fostering transformations away from rigid and nonintegrated structures of governance. More inclusive decision-making processes, deeper understanding of complexity, and colearning across SGS can help to build constructive solutions that are likely to benefit multiple stakeholders and build capacity to understand and respond to change.

Machado de assis's epilepsy

Machado de Assis (1839-1908) is considered the most important Brazilian writer and a great universal literary figure. Little is know about his medical, personal and family history. He hid his «disease» as much as possible. Machado referred to «strange things» having happened to him in his childhood. He described seizures as «nervous phenomena», «absenses», «my illness». Laet observed a seizure and described it as: «... when Machado approached us and spoke to me in disconnected words. I looked at him in surprise and found his features altered. Knowing that from time to time he had nervous problems,... and only permitted Machado take the Laranjeiras Street car, when I saw that he was completely well». A photographically documented seizure is shown. Alencar wrote, «The preoccupation with health was frequent: either he was having the consequences of a fit or was foreboding one». It is clear that Machado presented localized symptomatic epilepsy with complex partial seizures secondarily generalized of unknown etiology. The seizures which began in infancy or childhood had remission in adolescence and then recurred in his thirties and became more frequent in his later years. His depression got markedly worse with age. In our opinion, the greatest consequence of Machado's epilepsy, was his psychological suffering due to the prejudice of the times. Despite this Machado showed all his genius, which is still actual and universal.

Futebol para cegos (futebol de cinco) no Brasil : leitura do jogo e estrategias tatico-tecnicas

Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física

Spatial, temporal, and human dimensions of air pollution in Brisbane

Arriving in Brisbane some six years ago, I could not help being impressed by what may be prosaically described as its atmospheric amenity resources. Perhaps this in part was due to my recent experiences in major urban centres in North America, but since that time, that sparkling quality and the blue skies seem to have progressively diminished. Unfortunately, there is also objective evidence available to suggest that this apparent deterioration is not merely the result of habituation of the senses. Air pollution data for the city show trends of increasing concentrations of those very substances that have destroyed the attractiveness of major population centres elsewhere, with climates initially as salubrious. Indeed, present figures indicate that photochemical smog in unacceptably high concentrations is rapidly becoming endemic also over Brisbane. These regrettable developments should come as no surprise. The society at large has not been inclined to respond purposefully to warnings of impending environmental problems, despite the experiences and publicity from overseas and even from other cities within Australia. Nor, up to the present, have certain politicians and government officials displayed stances beyond those necessary for the maintenance of a decorum of concern. At this stage, there still exists the possibility for meaningful government action without the embarrassment of losing political favour with the electorate. To the contrary, there is every chance that such action may be turned to advantage with increased public enlightenment. It would be more than a pity to miss perhaps the final remaining opportunity: Queensland is one of the few remaining places in the world with sufficient resources to permit both rational development and high environmental quality. The choice appears to be one of making a relatively minor investment now for a large financial and social gain the near future, or, permitting Brisbane to degenerate gradually into just another stagnated Los Angeles or Sydney. The present monograph attempts to introduce the problem by reviewing the available research on air quality in the Brisbane area. It also tries to elucidate some seemingly obvious, but so far unapplied management approaches. By necessity, such a broad treatment needs to make inroads into extensive ranges of subject areas, including political and legal practices to public perceptions, scientific measurement and statistical analysis to dynamics of air flow. Clearly, it does not pretend to be definitive in any of these fields, but it does try to emphasize those adjustable facets of the human use system of natural resources, too often neglected in favour of air pollution control technology. The crossing of disciplinary boundaries, however, needs no apology: air quality problems are ubiquitous, touching upon space, time and human interaction.

Patterns of brain asymmetry in the perception of positive and negative facial expressions

The divided visual field technique was used to investigate the pattern of brain asymmetry in the perception of positive/approach and negative/withdrawal facial expressions. A total of 80 undergraduate students (65 female, 15 male) were distributed in five experimental groups in order to investigate separately the perception of expressions of happiness, surprise, fear, sadness, and the neutral face. In each trial a target and a distractor expression were presented simultaneously in a computer screen for 150 ms and participants had to determine the side (left or right) on which the target expression was presented. Results indicated that expressions of happiness and fear were identified faster when presented in the left visual field, suggesting an advantage of the right hemisphere in the perception of these expressions. Fewer judgement errors and faster reaction times were also observed for the matching condition in which emotional faces were presented in the left visual field and neutral faces in the right visual field. Other results indicated that positive expressions (happiness and surprise) were perceived faster and more accurately than negative ones (sadness and fear). Main results tend to support the right hemisphere hypothesis, which predicts a better performance of the right hemisphere to perceive emotions, as opposed to the approach-withdrawal hypothesis.

Social anxiety disorder women easily recognize fearfull, sad and happy faces: The influence of gender

Background: It has been suggested that individuals with social anxiety disorder (SAD) are exaggeratedly concerned about approval and disapproval by others. Therefore, we assessed the recognition of facial expressions by individuals with SAD, in an attempt to overcome the limitations of previous studies. Methods: The sample was formed by 231 individuals (78 SAD patients and 153 healthy controls). All individuals were treatment naive, aged 18-30 years and with similar socioeconomic level. Participants judged which emotion (happiness, sadness, disgust, anger, fear, and surprise) was presented in the facial expression of stimuli displayed on a computer screen. The stimuli were manipulated in order to depict different emotional intensities, with the initial image being a neutral face (0%) and, as the individual moved on across images, the expressions increased their emotional intensity until reaching the total emotion (100%). The time, accuracy, and intensity necessary to perform judgments were evaluated. Results: The groups did not show statistically significant differences in respect to the number of correct judgments or to the time necessary to respond. However, women with SAD required less emotional intensity to recognize faces displaying fear (p = 0.002), sadness (p = 0.033) and happiness (p = 0.002), with no significant differences for the other emotions or men with SAD. Conclusions: The findings suggest that women with SAD are hypersensitive to threat-related and approval-related social cues. Future studies investigating the neural basis of the impaired processing of facial emotion in SAD using functional neuroimaging would be desirable and opportune. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Testing the beneficial acclimation hypothesis

Recent developments in evolutionary physiology have seen many of the long-held assumptions within comparative physiology receive rigorous experimental analysis. Studies of the adaptive significance of physiological acclimation exemplify this new evolutionary approach. The beneficial acclimation hypothesis (BAH) was proposed to describe the assumption that all acclimation changes enhance the physiological performance or fitness of an individual organism. To the surprise of most physiologists, all empirical examinations of the BAH have rejected its generality. However, we suggest that these examinations are neither direct nor complete tests of the functional benefit of acclimation. We consider them to be elegant analyses of the adaptive significance of developmental plasticity, a type of phenotypic plasticity that is very different from the traditional concept of acclimation that is used by comparative physiologists.

Efeitos da modulação do sistema endocanabinoide na interação social e extinção da memória aversiva em macacos-prego (Sapajus spp)

Dissertação (mestrado)—Universidade de Brasília, Instituto de Ciências Biológicas, Departamento de Ciências Fisiológicas, Programa de Pós Graduação em Biologia Animal, 2016.

Comparative analysis between statistical and artificial intelligence models in business failure prediction

A growing number of predicting corporate failure models has emerged since 60s. Economic and social consequences of business failure can be dramatic, thus it is not surprise that the issue has been of growing interest in academic research as well as in business context. The main purpose of this study is to compare the predictive ability of five developed models based on three statistical techniques (Discriminant Analysis, Logit and Probit) and two models based on Artificial Intelligence (Neural Networks and Rough Sets). The five models were employed to a dataset of 420 non-bankrupt firms and 125 bankrupt firms belonging to the textile and clothing industry, over the period 2003–09. Results show that all the models performed well, with an overall correct classification level higher than 90%, and a type II error always less than 2%. The type I error increases as we move away from the year prior to failure. Our models contribute to the discussion of corporate financial distress causes. Moreover it can be used to assist decisions of creditors, investors and auditors. Additionally, this research can be of great contribution to devisers of national economic policies that aim to reduce industrial unemployment.