Jmodels: Java models of earth system regulation

The JModel suite consists of a number of models of aspects of the Earth System. They can all be run from the JModels website. They are written in the Java language for maximum portability, and are capable of running on most computing platforms including Windows, MacOS and Unix/Linux. The models are controlled via graphical user interfaces (GUI), so no knowledge of computer programming is required to run them. The models currently available from the JModels website are: Ocean phosphorus cycle Ocean nitrogen and phosphorus cycles Ocean silicon and phosphorus cycles Ocean and atmosphere carbon cycle Energy radiation balance model (under development) The main purpose of the models is to investigate how material and energy cycles of the Earth system are regulated and controlled by different feedbacks. While the central focus is on these feedbacks and Earth System stabilisation, the models can also be used in other ways. These resources have been developed by: National Oceanography Centre, Southampton project led by Toby Tyrrell and Andrew Yool, focus on how the Earth system works.

Evaluation of the Met Office global forecast model using Geostationary Earth Radiation Budget (GERB) data

Simulations of the top-of-atmosphere radiative-energy budget from the Met Office global numerical weather-prediction model are evaluated using new data from the Geostationary Earth Radiation Budget (GERB) instrument on board the Meteosat-8 satellite. Systematic discrepancies between the model simulations and GERB measurements greater than 20 Wm-2 in outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) and greater than 60 Wm-2 in reflected short-wave radiation (RSR) are identified over the period April-September 2006 using 12 UTC data. Convective cloud over equatorial Africa is spatially less organized and less reflective than in the GERB data. This bias depends strongly on convective-cloud cover, which is highly sensitive to changes in the model convective parametrization. Underestimates in model OLR over the Gulf of Guinea coincide with unrealistic southerly cloud outflow from convective centres to the north. Large overestimates in model RSR over the subtropical ocean, greater than 50 Wm-2 at 12 UTC, are explained by unrealistic radiative properties of low-level cloud relating to overestimation of cloud liquid water compared with independent satellite measurements. The results of this analysis contribute to the development and improvement of parametrizations in the global forecast model.

Variability in clear-sky longwave radiative cooling of the atmosphere

The longwave radiative cooling of the clear-sky atmosphere (Q(LWc)) is a crucial component of the global hydrological cycle and is composed of the clear-sky outgoing longwave radiation to space (OLRc) and the net downward minus upward clear-sky longwave radiation to the surface (SNLc). Estimates of QLWc from reanalyses and observations are presented for the period 1979-2004. Compared to other reanalyses data sets, the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts 40-year reanalysis (ERA40) produces the largest Q(LWc) over the tropical oceans (217 W m(-2)), explained by the least negative SNLc. On the basis of comparisons with data derived from satellite measurements, ERA40 provides the most realistic QLWc climatology over the tropical oceans but exhibits a spurious interannual variability for column integrated water vapor (CWV) and SNLc. Interannual monthly anomalies of QLWc are broadly consistent between data sets with large increases during the warm El Nino events. Since relative humidity ( RH) errors applying throughout the troposphere result in compensating effects on the cooling to space and to the surface, they exert only a marginal effect on QLWc. An observed increase in CWV with surface temperature of 3 kg m(-2) K-1 over the tropical oceans is important in explaining a positive relationship between QLWc and surface temperature, in particular over ascending regimes; over tropical ocean descending regions this relationship ranges from 3.6 to 4.6 +/- 0.4 W m(-2) K-1 for the data sets considered, consistent with idealized sensitivity tests in which tropospheric warming is applied and RH is held constant and implying an increase in precipitation with warming.

The Geostationary Earth Radiation Budget Project

This paper reports on a new satellite sensor, the Geostationary Earth Radiation Budget (GERB) experiment. GERB is designed to make the first measurements of the Earth's radiation budget from geostationary orbit. Measurements at high absolute accuracy of the reflected sunlight from the Earth, and the thermal radiation emitted by the Earth are made every 15 min, with a spatial resolution at the subsatellite point of 44.6 km (north–south) by 39.3 km (east–west). With knowledge of the incoming solar constant, this gives the primary forcing and response components of the top-of-atmosphere radiation. The first GERB instrument is an instrument of opportunity on Meteosat-8, a new spin-stabilized spacecraft platform also carrying the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared (SEVIRI) sensor, which is currently positioned over the equator at 3.5°W. This overview of the project includes a description of the instrument design and its preflight and in-flight calibration. An evaluation of the instrument performance after its first year in orbit, including comparisons with data from the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) satellite sensors and with output from numerical models, are also presented. After a brief summary of the data processing system and data products, some of the scientific studies that are being undertaken using these early data are described. This marks the beginning of a decade or more of observations from GERB, as subsequent models will fly on each of the four Meteosat Second Generation satellites.

Predicting mesh density for adaptive modelling of the global atmosphere

The shallow water equations are solved using a mesh of polygons on the sphere, which adapts infrequently to the predicted future solution. Infrequent mesh adaptation reduces the cost of adaptation and load-balancing and will thus allow for more accurate mapping on adaptation. We simulate the growth of a barotropically unstable jet adapting the mesh every 12 h. Using an adaptation criterion based largely on the gradient of the vorticity leads to a mesh with around 20 per cent of the cells of a uniform mesh that gives equivalent results. This is a similar proportion to previous studies of the same test case with mesh adaptation every 1–20 min. The prediction of the mesh density involves solving the shallow water equations on a coarse mesh in advance of the locally refined mesh in order to estimate where features requiring higher resolution will grow, decay or move to. The adaptation criterion consists of two parts: that resolved on the coarse mesh, and that which is not resolved and so is passively advected on the coarse mesh. This combination leads to a balance between resolving features controlled by the large-scale dynamics and maintaining fine-scale features.

Surface determination of the air-earth electrical current density using co-located sensors of different geometry

A vertical conduction current flows in the atmosphere as a result of the global atmospheric electric circuit. The current at the surface consists of the conduction current and a locally generated displacement current, which are often approximately equal in magnitude. A method of separating the two currents using two collectors of different geometry is investigated. The picoammeters connected to the collectors have a RC time constant of approximately 3 s, permitting the investigation of higher frequency air-earth current changes than previously achieved. The displacement current component of the air-earth current derived from the instrument agrees with calculations using simultaneous data from a co-located fast response electric field mill. The mean value of the nondisplacement current measured over 9 h was 1.76 +/- 0.002 pA m(-2). (c) 2006 American Institute of Physics.

PRISM and ENES: a European approach to Earth system modelling

Europe's widely distributed climate modelling expertise, now organized in the European Network for Earth System Modelling (ENES), is both a strength and a challenge. Recognizing this, the European Union's Program for Integrated Earth System Modelling (PRISM) infrastructure project aims at designing a flexible and friendly user environment to assemble, run and post-process Earth System models. PRISM was started in December 2001 with a duration of three years. This paper presents the major stages of PRISM, including: (1) the definition and promotion of scientific and technical standards to increase component modularity; (2) the development of an end-to-end software environment (graphical user interface, coupling and I/O system, diagnostics, visualization) to launch, monitor and analyse complex Earth system models built around state-of-art community component models (atmosphere, ocean, atmospheric chemistry, ocean bio-chemistry, sea-ice, land-surface); and (3) testing and quality standards to ensure high-performance computing performance on a variety of platforms. PRISM is emerging as a core strategic software infrastructure for building the European research area in Earth system sciences. Copyright (c) 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Effect of improving representation of horizontal and vertical cloud structure on the Earth's global radiation budget. Part II: The global effects

Reliably representing both horizontal cloud inhomogeneity and vertical cloud overlap is fundamentally important for the radiation budget of a general circulation model. Here, we build on the work of Part One of this two-part paper by applying a pair of parameterisations that account for horizontal inhomogeneity and vertical overlap to global re-analysis data. These are applied both together and separately in an attempt to quantify the effects of poor representation of the two components on radiation budget. Horizontal inhomogeneity is accounted for using the “Tripleclouds” scheme, which uses two regions of cloud in each layer of a gridbox as opposed to one; vertical overlap is accounted for using “exponential-random” overlap, which aligns vertically continuous cloud according to a decorrelation height. These are applied to a sample of scenes from a year of ERA-40 data. The largest radiative effect of horizontal inhomogeneity is found to be in areas of marine stratocumulus; the effect of vertical overlap is found to be fairly uniform, but with larger individual short-wave and long-wave effects in areas of deep, tropical convection. The combined effect of the two parameterisations is found to reduce the magnitude of the net top-of-atmosphere cloud radiative forcing (CRF) by 2.25 W m−2, with shifts of up to 10 W m−2 in areas of marine stratocumulus. The effects of the uncertainty in our parameterisations on radiation budget is also investigated. It is found that the uncertainty in the impact of horizontal inhomogeneity is of order ±60%, while the uncertainty in the impact of vertical overlap is much smaller. This suggests an insensitivity of the radiation budget to the exact nature of the global decorrelation height distribution derived in Part One.

A potential lag between the open solar magnetic source flux and solar EUV and X-ray emissions as measured by the Earth's ionosphere during total solar eclipses

Measurements of the ionospheric E-region during total solar eclipses have been used to provide information about the evolution of the solar magnetic field and EUV and X-ray emissions from the solar corona and chromosphere. By measuring levels of ionisation during an eclipse and comparing these measurements with an estimate of the unperturbed ionisation levels (such as those made during a control day, where available) it is possible to estimate the percentage of ionising radiation being emitted by the solar corona and chromosphere. Previously unpublished data from the two eclipses presented here are particularly valuable as they provide information that supplements the data published to date. The eclipse of 23 October 1976 over Australia provides information in a data gap that would otherwise have spanned the years 1966 to 1991. The eclipse of 4 December 2002 over Southern Africa is important as it extends the published sequence of measurements. Comparing measurements from eclipses between 1932 and 2002 with the solar magnetic source flux reveals that changes in the solar EUV and X-ray flux lag the open source flux measurements by approximately 1.5 years. We suggest that this unexpected result comes about from changes to the relative size of the limb corona between eclipses, with the lag representing the time taken to populate the coronal field with plasma hot enough to emit the EUV and X-rays ionising our atmosphere.

Observed changes in top-of-the-atmosphere radiation and upper-ocean heating consistent within uncertainty

Global climate change results from a small yet persistent imbalance between the amount of sunlight absorbed by Earth and the thermal radiation emitted back to space. An apparent inconsistency has been diagnosed between interannual variations in the net radiation imbalance inferred from satellite measurements and upper-ocean heating rate from in situ measurements, and this inconsistency has been interpreted as ‘missing energy’ in the system. Here we present a revised analysis of net radiation at the top of the atmosphere from satellite data, and we estimate ocean heat content, based on three independent sources. We find that the difference between the heat balance at the top of the atmosphere and upper-ocean heat content change is not statistically significant when accounting for observational uncertainties in ocean measurements, given transitions in instrumentation and sampling. Furthermore, variability in Earth’s energy imbalance relating to El Niño-Southern Oscillation is found to be consistent within observational uncertainties among the satellite measurements, a reanalysis model simulation and one of the ocean heat content records. We combine satellite data with ocean measurements to depths of 1,800 m, and show that between January 2001 and December 2010, Earth has been steadily accumulating energy at a rate of 0.50±0.43 Wm−2 (uncertainties at the 90% confidence level). We conclude that energy storage is continuing to increase in the sub-surface ocean.

Vertical and horizontal processes in the global atmosphere and the maximum entropy production conjecture

The objective of this paper is to reconsider the Maximum Entropy Production conjecture (MEP) in the context of a very simple two-dimensional zonal-vertical climate model able to represent the total material entropy production due at the same time to both horizontal and vertical heat fluxes. MEP is applied first to a simple four-box model of climate which accounts for both horizontal and vertical material heat fluxes. It is shown that, under condition of fixed insolation, a MEP solution is found with reasonably realistic temperature and heat fluxes, thus generalising results from independent two-box horizontal or vertical models. It is also shown that the meridional and the vertical entropy production terms are independently involved in the maximisation and thus MEP can be applied to each subsystem with fixed boundary conditions. We then extend the four-box model by increasing its resolution, and compare it with GCM output. A MEP solution is found which is fairly realistic as far as the horizontal large scale organisation of the climate is concerned whereas the vertical structure looks to be unrealistic and presents seriously unstable features. This study suggest that the thermal meridional structure of the atmosphere is predicted fairly well by MEP once the insolation is given but the vertical structure of the atmosphere cannot be predicted satisfactorily by MEP unless constraints are imposed to represent the determination of longwave absorption by water vapour and clouds as a function of the state of the climate. Furthermore an order-of-magnitude estimate of contributions to the material entropy production due to horizontal and vertical processes within the climate system is provided by using two different methods. In both cases we found that approximately 40 mW m−2 K−1 of material entropy production is due to vertical heat transport and 5–7 mW m−2 K−1 to horizontal heat transport