Evolution of the landscape of Madeira Island: long-term vegetation dynamics

The aim of this thesis was to evaluate historical change of the landscape of Madeira Island and to assess spatial and temporal vegetation dynamics. In current research diverse “retrospective techniques”, such as landscape repeat photography, dendrochronology, and research of historical records were used. These, combined with vegetation relevés, aimed to gather information about landscape change, disturbance history, and vegetation successional patterns. It was found that landscape change, throughout 125 years, was higher in the last five decades manly driven by farming abandonment, building growth and exotic vegetation coverage increase. Pristine vegetation was greatly destroyed since early settlement and by the end of the nineteenth century native vegetation was highly devastated due to recurrent antropogenic disturbances. These actions also helped to block plant succession and to modify floristical assemblages, affecting as well as species richness. In places with less hemeroby, although significant growth of vegetation of lower seral stages was detected, the vegetation of most mature stages headed towards unbalance between recovery and loss, being also very vulnerable to exotic species encroachment. Recovery by native vegetation also occurred in areas formerly occupied by exotic plants and agriculture but it was almost negligible. Vegetation recovery followed the successional model currently proposed, attesting the model itself. Yet, succession was slower than espected, due to lack of favourable conditions and to recurrent disturbances. Probable tempus of each seral stage was obtained by growth rates of woody taxa estimated through dendrochronology. The exotic trees which were the dominant trees in the past (Castanea sativa and Pinus pinaster) almost vanished. Eucalyptus globulus, the current main tree of the exotic forest is being replaced by other cover types as Acacia mearnsii. The latter, along with Arundo donax, Cytisus scoparius and Pittosporum undulatum are currently the exotic species with higher invasive behaviour. However, many other exotic species have also proved to be highly pervasive and came together with the ones referred above to prevent native vegetation regeneration, to diminish biological diversity, and to block early successional phases delaying native forest recovery.

Network topology and the evolution of dynamics in an artificial genetic regulatory network model created by whole genome duplication and divergence

Topological measures of large-scale complex networks are applied to a specific artificial regulatory network model created through a whole genome duplication and divergence mechanism. This class of networks share topological features with natural transcriptional regulatory networks. Specifically, these networks display scale-free and small-world topology and possess subgraph distributions similar to those of natural networks. Thus, the topologies inherent in natural networks may be in part due to their method of creation rather than being exclusively shaped by subsequent evolution under selection. The evolvability of the dynamics of these networks is also examined by evolving networks in simulation to obtain three simple types of output dynamics. The networks obtained from this process show a wide variety of topologies and numbers of genes indicating that it is relatively easy to evolve these classes of dynamics in this model. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Network evolution and the spatiotemporal dynamics of knowledge sourcing

Knowledge accessing from external organisations is important to firms, especially entrepreneurial ones which often cannot generate internally all the knowledge necessary for innovation. There is, however, a lack of evidence concerning the association between the evolution of firms and the evolution of their networks. The aim of this paper is to begin to fill this gap by undertaking an exploratory analysis of the relationship between the vintage of firms and their knowledge sourcing networks. Drawing on an analysis of firms in the UK, the paper finds some evidence of a U-shaped relationship existing between firm age and the frequency of accessing knowledge from certain sources. Emerging entrepreneurial firms tend to be highly active with regard to accessing knowledge for a range of sources and geographic locations, with the rate of networking dropping somewhat during the period of peak firm growth. For instance, it is found that firms tend to less frequently access knowledge sources such as universities and research institutes in their own region during a stage of peak turnover growth. Overall, the results suggest a complex relationship between the lifecycle of the firm and its networking patterns. It is concluded that policymakers need to become more aware that network formation and utilisation by firms is likely to vary dependent upon their lifecycle position.

Drivers of Dengue Within-Host Dynamics and Virulence Evolution

Dengue is an important vector-borne virus that infects on the order of 400 million individuals per year. Infection with one of the virus's four serotypes (denoted DENV-1 to 4) may be silent, result in symptomatic dengue 'breakbone' fever, or develop into the more severe dengue hemorrhagic fever/dengue shock syndrome (DHF/DSS). Extensive research has therefore focused on identifying factors that influence dengue infection outcomes. It has been well-documented through epidemiological studies that DHF is most likely to result from a secondary heterologous infection, and that individuals experiencing a DENV-2 or DENV-3 infection typically are more likely to present with more severe dengue disease than those individuals experiencing a DENV-1 or DENV-4 infection. However, a mechanistic understanding of how these risk factors affect disease outcomes, and further, how the virus's ability to evolve these mechanisms will affect disease severity patterns over time, is lacking. In the second chapter of my dissertation, I formulate mechanistic mathematical models of primary and secondary dengue infections that describe how the dengue virus interacts with the immune response and the results of this interaction on the risk of developing severe dengue disease. I show that only the innate immune response is needed to reproduce characteristic features of a primary infection whereas the adaptive immune response is needed to reproduce characteristic features of a secondary dengue infection. I then add to these models a quantitative measure of disease severity that assumes immunopathology, and analyze the effectiveness of virological indicators of disease severity. In the third chapter of my dissertation, I then statistically fit these mathematical models to viral load data of dengue patients to understand the mechanisms that drive variation in viral load. I specifically consider the roles that immune status, clinical disease manifestation, and serotype may play in explaining viral load variation observed across the patients. With this analysis, I show that there is statistical support for the theory of antibody dependent enhancement in the development of severe disease in secondary dengue infections and that there is statistical support for serotype-specific differences in viral infectivity rates, with infectivity rates of DENV-2 and DENV-3 exceeding those of DENV-1. In the fourth chapter of my dissertation, I integrate these within-host models with a vector-borne epidemiological model to understand the potential for virulence evolution in dengue. Critically, I show that dengue is expected to evolve towards intermediate virulence, and that the optimal virulence of the virus depends strongly on the number of serotypes that co-circulate. Together, these dissertation chapters show that dengue viral load dynamics provide insight into the within-host mechanisms driving differences in dengue disease patterns and that these mechanisms have important implications for dengue virulence evolution.

The interplay between tectonics, sediment dynamics and gateways evolution in the Danube system from the Pannonian Basin to the western Black Sea

Understanding the natural evolution of a river–delta–sea system is important to develop a strong scientific basis for efficient integrated management plans. The distribution of sediment fluxes is linked with the natural connection between sediment source areas situated in uplifting mountain chains and deposition in plains, deltas and, ultimately, in the capturing oceans and seas. The Danube River–western Black Sea is one of the most active European systems in terms of sediment re-distribution that poses significant societal challenges. We aim to derive the tectonic and sedimentological background of human-induced changes in this system and discuss their interplay. This is obtained by analysing the tectonic and associated vertical movements, the evolution of relevant basins and the key events affecting sediment routing and deposition. The analysis of the main source and sink areas is focused in particular on the Miocene evolution of the Carpatho-Balkanides, Dinarides and their sedimentary basins including the western Black Sea. The vertical movements of mountains chains created the main moments of basin connectivity observed in the Danube system. Their timing and effects are observed in sediments deposited in the vicinity of gateways, such as the transition between the Pannonian/Transylvanian and Dacian basins and between the Dacian Basin and western Black Sea. The results demonstrate the importance of understanding threshold conditions driving rapid basins connectivity changes superposed over the longer time scale of tectonic-induced vertical movements associated with background erosion and sedimentation. The spatial and temporal scale of such processes is contrastingly different and challenging. The long-term patterns interact with recent or anthropogenic induced modifications in the natural system and may result in rapid changes at threshold conditions that can be quantified and predicted. Their understanding is critical because of frequent occurrence during orogenic evolution, as commonly observed in the Mediterranean area and discussed elsewhere.

Quantitative Derivation of Effective Evolution Equations for the Dynamics of Bose-Einstein Condensates

This thesis proves certain results concerning an important question in non-equilibrium quantum statistical mechanics which is the derivation of effective evolution equations approximating the dynamics of a system of large number of bosons initially at equilibrium (ground state at very low temperatures). The dynamics of such systems are governed by the time-dependent linear many-body Schroedinger equation from which it is typically difficult to extract useful information due to the number of particles being large. We will study quantitatively (i.e. with explicit bounds on the error) how a suitable one particle non-linear Schroedinger equation arises in the mean field limit as number of particles N → ∞ and how the appropriate corrections to the mean field will provide better approximations of the exact dynamics. In the first part of this thesis we consider the evolution of N bosons, where N is large, with two-body interactions of the form N³ᵝv(Nᵝ⋅), 0≤β≤1. The parameter β measures the strength and the range of interactions. We compare the exact evolution with an approximation which considers the evolution of a mean field coupled with an appropriate description of pair excitations, see [18,19] by Grillakis-Machedon-Margetis. We extend the results for 0 ≤ β < 1/3 in [19, 20] to the case of β < 1/2 and obtain an error bound of the form p(t)/Nᵅ, where α>0 and p(t) is a polynomial, which implies a specific rate of convergence as N → ∞. In the second part, utilizing estimates of the type discussed in the first part, we compare the exact evolution with the mean field approximation in the sense of marginals. We prove that the exact evolution is close to the approximate in trace norm for times of the order o(1)√N compared to log(o(1)N) as obtained in Chen-Lee-Schlein [6] for the Hartree evolution. Estimates of similar type are obtained for stronger interactions as well.

Evolution Of The Deaths Registry System In Brazil: Associations With Changes In The Mortality Profile, Under-registration Of Death Counts, And Ill-defined Causes Of Death.

This paper examines the spatial pattern of ill-defined causes of death across Brazilian regions, and its relationship with the evolution of completeness of the deaths registry and changes in the mortality age profile. We make use of the Brazilian Health Informatics Department mortality database and population censuses from 1980 to 2010. We applied demographic methods to evaluate the quality of mortality data for 137 small areas and correct for under-registration of death counts when necessary. The second part of the analysis uses linear regression models to investigate the relationship between, on the one hand, changes in death counts coverage and age profile of mortality, and on the other, changes in the reporting of ill-defined causes of death. The completeness of death counts coverage increases from about 80% in 1980-1991 to over 95% in 2000-2010 at the same time the percentage of ill-defined causes of deaths reduced about 53% in the country. The analysis suggests that the government's efforts to improve data quality are proving successful, and they will allow for a better understanding of the dynamics of health and the mortality transition.

Pulse train fluorescence technique for measuring triplet state dynamics

We report on a method to study the dynamics of triplet formation based on the fluorescence signal produced by a pulse train. Basically, the pulse train acts as sequential pump-probe pulses that precisely map the excited-state dynamics in the long time scale. This allows characterizing those processes that affect the population evolution of the first excited singlet state, whose decay gives rise to the fluorescence. The technique was proven to be valuable to measure parameters of triplet formation in organic molecules. Additionally, this single beam technique has the advantages of simplicity, low noise and background-free signal detection. (C) 2011 Optical Society of America

The non-equilibrium nature of culinary evolution

Food is an essential part of civilization, with a scope that ranges from the biological to the economic and cultural levels. Here, we study the statistics of ingredients and recipes taken from Brazilian, British, French and Medieval cookery books. We find universal distributions with scale invariant behaviour. We propose a copy-mutate process to model culinary evolution that fits our empirical data very well. We find a cultural 'founder effect' produced by the non-equilibrium dynamics of the model. Both the invariant and idiosyncratic aspects of culture are accounted for by our model, which may have applications in other kinds of evolutionary processes.

New constraints on the chemical evolution of the solar neighbourhood and Galactic disc(s) Improved astrophysical parameters for the Geneva-Copenhagen Survey

We present a re-analysis of the Geneva-Copenhagen survey, which benefits from the infrared flux method to improve the accuracy of the derived stellar effective temperatures and uses the latter to build a consistent and improved metallicity scale. Metallicities are calibrated on high-resolution spectroscopy and checked against four open clusters and a moving group, showing excellent consistency. The new temperature and metallicity scales provide a better match to theoretical isochrones, which are used for a Bayesian analysis of stellar ages. With respect to previous analyses, our stars are on average 100 K hotter and 0.1 dex more metal rich, which shift the peak of the metallicity distribution function around the solar value. From Stromgren photometry we are able to derive for the first time a proxy for [alpha/Fe] abundances, which enables us to perform a tentative dissection of the chemical thin and thick disc. We find evidence for the latter being composed of an old, mildly but systematically alpha-enhanced population that extends to super solar metallicities, in agreement with spectroscopic studies. Our revision offers the largest existing kinematically unbiased sample of the solar neighbourhood that contains full information on kinematics, metallicities, and ages and thus provides better constraints on the physical processes relevant in the build-up of the Milky Way disc, enabling a better understanding of the Sun in a Galactic context.

Dynamics and constraints of the massive graviton dark matter flat cosmologies

We discuss the dynamics of the Universe within the framework of the massive graviton cold dark matter scenario (MGCDM) in which gravitons are geometrically treated as massive particles. In this modified gravity theory, the main effect of the gravitons is to alter the density evolution of the cold dark matter component in such a way that the Universe evolves to an accelerating expanding regime, as presently observed. Tight constraints on the main cosmological parameters of the MGCDM model are derived by performing a joint likelihood analysis involving the recent supernovae type Ia data, the cosmic microwave background shift parameter, and the baryonic acoustic oscillations as traced by the Sloan Digital Sky Survey red luminous galaxies. The linear evolution of small density fluctuations is also analyzed in detail. It is found that the growth factor of the MGCDM model is slightly different (similar to 1-4%) from the one provided by the conventional flat Lambda CDM cosmology. The growth rate of clustering predicted by MGCDM and Lambda CDM models are confronted to the observations and the corresponding best fit values of the growth index (gamma) are also determined. By using the expectations of realistic future x-ray and Sunyaev-Zeldovich cluster surveys we derive the dark matter halo mass function and the corresponding redshift distribution of cluster-size halos for the MGCDM model. Finally, we also show that the Hubble flow differences between the MGCDM and the Lambda CDM models provide a halo redshift distribution departing significantly from the those predicted by other dark energy models. These results suggest that the MGCDM model can observationally be distinguished from Lambda CDM and also from a large number of dark energy models recently proposed in the literature.

Social Networks Shape the Transmission Dynamics of Hepatitis C Virus

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infects 170 million people worldwide, and is a major public health problem in Brazil, where over 1% of the population may be infected and where multiple viral genotypes co-circulate. Chronically infected individuals are both the source of transmission to others and are at risk for HCV-related diseases, such as liver cancer and cirrhosis. Before the adoption of anti-HCV control measures in blood banks, this virus was mainly transmitted via blood transfusion. Today, needle sharing among injecting drug users is the most common form of HCV transmission. Of particular importance is that HCV prevalence is growing in non-risk groups. Since there is no vaccine against HCV, it is important to determine the factors that control viral transmission in order to develop more efficient control measures. However, despite the health costs associated with HCV, the factors that determine the spread of virus at the epidemiological scale are often poorly understood. Here, we sequenced partial NS5b gene sequences sampled from blood samples collected from 591 patients in Sao Paulo state, Brazil. We show that different viral genotypes entered Sao Paulo at different times, grew at different rates, and are associated with different age groups and risk behaviors. In particular, subtype 1b is older and grew more slowly than subtypes 1a and 3a, and is associated with multiple age classes. In contrast, subtypes 1a and 3b are associated with younger people infected more recently, possibly with higher rates of sexual transmission. The transmission dynamics of HCV in Sao Paulo therefore vary by subtype and are determined by a combination of age, risk exposure and underlying social network. We conclude that social factors may play a key role in determining the rate and pattern of HCV spread, and should influence future intervention policies.

Weak measurement: Effect of the detector dynamics

The contribution of the detector dynamics to the weak measurement is analyzed. According to the usual theory [Y. Aharonov, D. Z. Albert, and L. Vaidman, Phys. Rev. Lett. 60, 1351 (1988)] the outcome of a weak measurement with preselection and postselection can be expressed as the real part of a complex number: the weak value. By accounting for the Hamiltonian evolution of the detector, here we find that there is a contribution proportional to the imaginary part of the weak value to the outcome of the weak measurement. This is due to the coherence of the probe being essential for the concept of complex weak value to be meaningful. As a particular example, we consider the measurement of a spin component and find that the contribution of the imaginary part of the weak value is sizable.

Evolutionary dynamics on rugged fitness landscapes: Exact dynamics and information theoretical aspects

The parallel mutation-selection evolutionary dynamics, in which mutation and replication are independent events, is solved exactly in the case that the Malthusian fitnesses associated to the genomes are described by the random energy model (REM) and by a ferromagnetic version of the REM. The solution method uses the mapping of the evolutionary dynamics into a quantum Ising chain in a transverse field and the Suzuki-Trotter formalism to calculate the transition probabilities between configurations at different times. We find that in the case of the REM landscape the dynamics can exhibit three distinct regimes: pure diffusion or stasis for short times, depending on the fitness of the initial configuration, and a spin-glass regime for large times. The dynamic transition between these dynamical regimes is marked by discontinuities in the mean-fitness as well as in the overlap with the initial reference sequence. The relaxation to equilibrium is described by an inverse time decay. In the ferromagnetic REM, we find in addition to these three regimes, a ferromagnetic regime where the overlap and the mean-fitness are frozen. In this case, the system relaxes to equilibrium in a finite time. The relevance of our results to information processing aspects of evolution is discussed.

Non-Markovian dynamics of quantum discord

We evaluate the quantum discord dynamics of two qubits in independent and common non-Markovian environments. We compare the dynamics of entanglement with that of quantum discord. For independent reservoirs the quantum discord vanishes only at discrete instants whereas the entanglement can disappear during a finite time interval. For a common reservoir, quantum discord and entanglement can behave very differently with sudden birth of the former but not of the latter. Furthermore, in this case the quantum discord dynamics presents sudden changes in the derivative of its time evolution which is evidenced by the presence of kinks in its behavior at discrete instants of time.