Integrated health prediction of bridge systems using dynamic object oriented Bayesian networks (DOOBNS)

The serviceability and safety of bridges are crucial to people’s daily lives and to the national economy. Every effort should be taken to make sure that bridges function safely and properly as any damage or fault during the service life can lead to transport paralysis, catastrophic loss of property or even casualties. Nonetheless, aggressive environmental conditions, ever-increasing and changing traffic loads and aging can all contribute to bridge deterioration. With often constrained budget, it is of significance to identify bridges and bridge elements that should be given higher priority for maintenance, rehabilitation or replacement, and to select optimal strategy. Bridge health prediction is an essential underpinning science to bridge maintenance optimization, since the effectiveness of optimal maintenance decision is largely dependent on the forecasting accuracy of bridge health performance. The current approaches for bridge health prediction can be categorised into two groups: condition ratings based and structural reliability based. A comprehensive literature review has revealed the following limitations of the current modelling approaches: (1) it is not evident in literature to date that any integrated approaches exist for modelling both serviceability and safety aspects so that both performance criteria can be evaluated coherently; (2) complex system modelling approaches have not been successfully applied to bridge deterioration modelling though a bridge is a complex system composed of many inter-related bridge elements; (3) multiple bridge deterioration factors, such as deterioration dependencies among different bridge elements, observed information, maintenance actions and environmental effects have not been considered jointly; (4) the existing approaches are lacking in Bayesian updating ability to incorporate a variety of event information; (5) the assumption of series and/or parallel relationship for bridge level reliability is always held in all structural reliability estimation of bridge systems. To address the deficiencies listed above, this research proposes three novel models based on the Dynamic Object Oriented Bayesian Networks (DOOBNs) approach. Model I aims to address bridge deterioration in serviceability using condition ratings as the health index. The bridge deterioration is represented in a hierarchical relationship, in accordance with the physical structure, so that the contribution of each bridge element to bridge deterioration can be tracked. A discrete-time Markov process is employed to model deterioration of bridge elements over time. In Model II, bridge deterioration in terms of safety is addressed. The structural reliability of bridge systems is estimated from bridge elements to the entire bridge. By means of conditional probability tables (CPTs), not only series-parallel relationship but also complex probabilistic relationship in bridge systems can be effectively modelled. The structural reliability of each bridge element is evaluated from its limit state functions, considering the probability distributions of resistance and applied load. Both Models I and II are designed in three steps: modelling consideration, DOOBN development and parameters estimation. Model III integrates Models I and II to address bridge health performance in both serviceability and safety aspects jointly. The modelling of bridge ratings is modified so that every basic modelling unit denotes one physical bridge element. According to the specific materials used, the integration of condition ratings and structural reliability is implemented through critical failure modes. Three case studies have been conducted to validate the proposed models, respectively. Carefully selected data and knowledge from bridge experts, the National Bridge Inventory (NBI) and existing literature were utilised for model validation. In addition, event information was generated using simulation to demonstrate the Bayesian updating ability of the proposed models. The prediction results of condition ratings and structural reliability were presented and interpreted for basic bridge elements and the whole bridge system. The results obtained from Model II were compared with the ones obtained from traditional structural reliability methods. Overall, the prediction results demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed modelling approach for bridge health prediction and underpin the assertion that the three models can be used separately or integrated and are more effective than the current bridge deterioration modelling approaches. The primary contribution of this work is to enhance the knowledge in the field of bridge health prediction, where more comprehensive health performance in both serviceability and safety aspects are addressed jointly. The proposed models, characterised by probabilistic representation of bridge deterioration in hierarchical ways, demonstrated the effectiveness and pledge of DOOBNs approach to bridge health management. Additionally, the proposed models have significant potential for bridge maintenance optimization. Working together with advanced monitoring and inspection techniques, and a comprehensive bridge inventory, the proposed models can be used by bridge practitioners to achieve increased serviceability and safety as well as maintenance cost effectiveness.

The use of electronic portal imaging to verify patient position during intensity-modulated radiotherapy delivered by the dynamic MLC technique

Purpose: The precise shape of the three-dimensional dose distributions created by intensity-modulated radiotherapy means that the verification of patient position and setup is crucial to the outcome of the treatment. In this paper, we investigate and compare the use of two different image calibration procedures that allow extraction of patient anatomy from measured electronic portal images of intensity-modulated treatment beams. Methods and Materials: Electronic portal images of the intensity-modulated treatment beam delivered using the dynamic multileaf collimator technique were acquired. The images were formed by measuring a series of frames or segments throughout the delivery of the beams. The frames were then summed to produce an integrated portal image of the delivered beam. Two different methods for calibrating the integrated image were investigated with the aim of removing the intensity modulations of the beam. The first involved a simple point-by-point division of the integrated image by a single calibration image of the intensity-modulated beam delivered to a homogeneous polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA) phantom. The second calibration method is known as the quadratic calibration method and required a series of calibration images of the intensity-modulated beam delivered to different thicknesses of homogeneous PMMA blocks. Measurements were made using two different detector systems: a Varian amorphous silicon flat-panel imager and a Theraview camera-based system. The methods were tested first using a contrast phantom before images were acquired of intensity-modulated radiotherapy treatment delivered to the prostate and pelvic nodes of cancer patients at the Royal Marsden Hospital. Results: The results indicate that the calibration methods can be used to remove the intensity modulations of the beam, making it possible to see the outlines of bony anatomy that could be used for patient position verification. This was shown for both posterior and lateral delivered fields. Conclusions: Very little difference between the two calibration methods was observed, so the simpler division method, requiring only the single extra calibration measurement and much simpler computation, was the favored method. This new method could provide a complementary tool to existing position verification methods, and it has the advantage that it is completely passive, requiring no further dose to the patient and using only the treatment fields.

Accurate measurement of the molecular thickness of thin organic shells on small inorganic cores using dynamic light scattering

Dynamic light scattering (DLS) has become a primary nanoparticle characterization technique with applications from materials characterization to biological and environmental detection. With the expansion in DLS use from homogeneous spheres to more complicated nanostructures, comes a decrease in accuracy. Much research has been performed to develop different diffusion models that account for the vastly different structures but little attention has been given to the effect on the light scattering properties in relation to DLS. In this work, small (core size < 5 nm) core-shell nanoparticles were used as a case study to measure the capping thickness of a layer of dodecanethiol (DDT) on Au and ZnO nanoparticles by DLS. We find that the DDT shell has very little effect on the scattering properties of the inorganic core and hence can be ignored to a first approximation. However, this results in conventional DLS analysis overestimating the hydrodynamic size in the volume and number weighted distributions. By introducing a simple correction formula that more accurately yields hydrodynamic size distributions a more precise determination of the molecular shell thickness is obtained. With this correction, the measured thickness of the DDT shell was found to be 7.3 ± 0.3 Å, much less than the extended chain length of 16 Å. This organic layer thickness suggests that on small nanoparticles, the DDT monolayer adopts a compact disordered structure rather than an open ordered structure on both ZnO and Au nanoparticle surfaces. These observations are in agreement with published molecular dynamics results.

The Learning Component of Dynamic Allocation Indices

For a multiarmed bandit problem with exponential discounting the optimal allocation rule is defined by a dynamic allocation index defined for each arm on its space. The index for an arm is equal to the expected immediate reward from the arm, with an upward adjustment reflecting any uncertainty about the prospects of obtaining rewards from the arm, and the possibilities of resolving those uncertainties by selecting that arm. Thus the learning component of the index is defined to be the difference between the index and the expected immediate reward. For two arms with the same expected immediate reward the learning component should be larger for the arm for which the reward rate is more uncertain. This is shown to be true for arms based on independent samples from a fixed distribution with an unknown parameter in the cases of Bernoulli and normal distributions, and similar results are obtained in other cases.

Modeling and optimization of a natural convection-based agricultural dryer

This study presents development of a computational fluid dynamic (CFD) model to predict unsteady, two-dimensional temperature, moisture and velocity distributions inside a novel, biomass-fired, natural convection-type agricultural dryer. Results show that in initial stages of drying, when material surface is wet and moisture is easily available, moisture removal rate from surface depends upon the condition of drying air. Subsequently, material surface becomes dry and moisture removal rate is driven by diffusion of moisture from inside to the material surface. An optimum 9-tray configuration is found to be more efficient than for the same mass of material and volume of dryer. A new configuration of dryer, mainly to explore its potential to increasing uniformity in drying across all trays, is also analyzed. This configuration involves diverting a portion of hot air before it enters over the first tray and is supplied directly at an intermediate location in the dryer. Uniformity in drying across trays has increased for the kind of material simulated.

Bacterial growth rate and host factors as determinants of intracellular bacterial distributions in systemic Salmonella enterica infections.

Bacteria of the species Salmonella enterica cause a range of life-threatening diseases in humans and animals worldwide. The within-host quantitative, spatial, and temporal dynamics of S. enterica interactions are key to understanding how immunity acts on these infections and how bacteria evade immune surveillance. In this study, we test hypotheses generated from mathematical models of in vivo dynamics of Salmonella infections with experimental observation of bacteria at the single-cell level in infected mouse organs to improve our understanding of the dynamic interactions between host and bacterial mechanisms that determine net growth rates of S. enterica within the host. We show that both bacterial and host factors determine the numerical distributions of bacteria within host cells and thus the level of dispersiveness of the infection.

Hydroacoustic surveys: a non-destructive approach to monitoring fish distributions at National Marine Sanctuaries

The science of fisheries acoustics and its applicability to resource management have evolved over the past several decades. This document provides a basic description of fisheries acoustics and recommendations on using this technology for research and monitoring of fish distributions and habitats within sanctuaries. It also describes recent efforts aimed at applying fisheries acoustics to Gray’s Reef National Marine Sanctuary (GRNMS) (Figure 1). Historically, methods to assess the underwater environment have included net trawls, diver censuses, hook and line, video, sonar and other techniques deployed in a variety of ways. Fisheries acoustics, using active sonar, relies on the physics of sound traveling through water to quantify the distribution of biota in the water column. By sending a signal of a given frequency through the water column and recording the time of travel and the strength of the reflected signal, it is possible to determine the size and location of fish and estimate biomass from the acoustic backscatter. As a fisheries assessment tool, active hydroacoustics technology is an efficient, non-intrusive method of mapping the water column at a very fine spatial and temporal resolution. It provides a practical alternative to bottom and mid-water trawls, which are not allowed at GRNMS. Passive acoustics, which uses underwater hydrophones to record man-made and natural sounds such as fish spawning calls and sounds produced by marine mammals for communication and echolocation, can provide a useful, complementary survey tool. This report primarily deals with active acoustics, although the integration of active and passive acoustics is addressed as well. (PDF contains 32 pages)

Egg production, spawning biomass and factors influencing recruitment of striped bass in the Potomac River and the upper Chesapeake Bay

Ichthyoplankton surveys in the Potomac River and Upper Chesapeake Bay were carried out in 1989 to estimate striped bass egg productions, age specific spawning biomasses of adult females, cohort-specific larval growth and mortality rates, and hatch dates of 8.0 mm larvae survivors. Possible consequences to recruitment of environmental factors were examined in 1989 and for data collected in 1987-1988. The temporal and spatial occurrences and distributions of eggs and larvae In both spawning areas are described and discussed in relation to environmental factors (temperature, rainfall, river discharge, pH, conductivity, zooplankton abundances) (PDF contains 319 pages)

Part 1: Longitudinal static and dynamic effects in semiconductor lasers. Part II: Spectral characteristics of passively mode-locked quantum well lasers

In the first part of this thesis a study of the effect of the longitudinal distribution of optical intensity and electron density on the static and dynamic behavior of semiconductor lasers is performed. A static model for above threshold operation of a single mode laser, consisting of multiple active and passive sections, is developed by calculating the longitudinal optical intensity distribution and electron density distribution in a self-consistent manner. Feedback from an index and gain Bragg grating is included, as well as feedback from discrete reflections at interfaces and facets. Longitudinal spatial holeburning is analyzed by including the dependence of the gain and the refractive index on the electron density. The mechanisms of spatial holeburning in quarter wave shifted DFB lasers are analyzed. A new laser structure with a uniform optical intensity distribution is introduced and an implementation is simulated, resulting in a large reduction of the longitudinal spatial holeburning effect.

A dynamic small-signal model is then developed by including the optical intensity and electron density distribution, as well as the dependence of the grating coupling coefficients on the electron density. Expressions are derived for the intensity and frequency noise spectrum, the spontaneous emission rate into the lasing mode, the linewidth enhancement factor, and the AM and FM modulation response. Different chirp components are identified in the FM response, and a new adiabatic chirp component is discovered. This new adiabatic chirp component is caused by the nonuniform longitudinal distributions, and is found to dominate at low frequencies. Distributed feedback lasers with partial gain coupling are analyzed, and it is shown how the dependence of the grating coupling coefficients on the electron density can result in an enhancement of the differential gain with an associated enhancement in modulation bandwidth and a reduction in chirp.

In the second part, spectral characteristics of passively mode-locked two-section multiple quantum well laser coupled to an external cavity are studied. Broad-band wavelength tuning using an external grating is demonstrated for the first time in passively mode-locked semiconductor lasers. A record tuning range of 26 nm is measured, with pulse widths of typically a few picosecond and time-bandwidth products of more than 10 times the transform limit. It is then demonstrated that these large time-bandwidth products are due to a strong linear upchirp, by performing pulse compression by a factor of 15 to a record pulse widths as low 320 fs.

A model for pulse propagation through a saturable medium with self-phase-modulation, due to the a-parameter, is developed for quantum well material, including the frequency dependence of the gain medium. This model is used to simulate two-section devices coupled to an external cavity. When no self-phase-modulation is present, it is found that the pulses are asymmetric with a sharper rising edge, that the pulse tails have an exponential behavior, and that the transform limit is 0.3. Inclusion of self-phase-modulation results in a linear upchirp imprinted on the pulse after each round-trip. This linear upchirp is due to a combination of self-phase-modulation in a gain section and absorption of the leading edge of the pulse in the saturable absorber.

Distributions and abundances of Pacific sardine (Sardinops sagax) and other pelagic fishes in the California Current Ecosystem during spring 2006, 2008, and 2010, estimated from acoustic–trawl surveys

The abundances and distributions of coastal pelagic fish species in the California Current Ecosystem from San Diego to southern Vancouver Island, were estimated from combined acoustic and trawl surveys conducted in the spring of 2006, 2008, and 2010. Pacific sardine (Sardinops sagax), jack mackerel (Trachurus symmetricus), and Pacific mackerel (Scomber japonicus) were the dominant coastal pelagic fish species, in that order. Northern anchovy (Engraulis mordax) and Pacific herring (Clupea pallasii) were sampled only sporadically and therefore estimates for these species were unreliable. The estimates of sardine biomass compared well with those of the annual assessments and confirmed a declining trajectory of the “northern stock” since 2006. During the sampling period, the biomass of jack mackerel was stable or increasing, and that of Pacific mackerel was low and variable. The uncertainties in these estimates are mostly the result of spatial patchiness which increased from sardine to mackerels to anchovy and herring. Future surveys of coastal pelagic fish species in the California Current Ecosystem should benefit from adaptive sampling based on modeled habitat; increased echosounder and trawl sampling, particularly for the most patchy and nearshore species; and directed-trawl sampling for improved species identification and estimations of their acoustic target stren

The study of biological characteristic and population dynamic of Caspian vimba (Vimba vimba persa), in coastal waters of Caspian Sea (Mazandaran Province)

This study was conducted to determine reproduction characteristics, diet regime, age structure and population dynamics parameters of the vimba vimba persa (Pallas, 1811) in Mazandaran waters of the Caspian Sea, from October 2008 to September 2009. A total of 994 specimens were monthly collected by beach seine and cast net from six fish landings of Ramsar, Tonekabon, Chaloos, Mahmood Abad, Sari and Behshahr. Biometric characters were measured for each specimen at the laboratory. Scales were used for age determination. Sex determination and fecundity were determined. Population dynamic parameters as well as stock assessment including cohort analysis were estimated using FISAT software. The finding showed that the mean of fork length and body weight of the Caspian Vimba were 168.4±2.6 mm and 71.94±32.24 g respectively. Strong correlation was found between these two variables (a= 0.012; b = 3.047; r2 = 0.955). 92 specimens were studied from the fecundity point of view. This species was found to have more abundance in spring (esp. Apr-May). The samples composed of 397(42.6%) male, 537(57.4%) female; Overall sex ratio (M: F =1: 1.35) was significantly different from the expected 1:1 ratio (p ≤0.05). The advanced stages of maturity (4th & 5th) were found in April and May. The highest Gonadosomatic Index in female was in May and the lowest one was in July. This fish is therefore a spring spawner. The maximum absolute and relative fecundities were 34640 and 260.9, respectively; the minimum absolute and relative fecundities were 5400 and 94.5 respectively. The averages of absolute and relative fecundities were 17198±7710 and 171.85±48.8, respectively. Coefficient vacuity index was 59.2% which indicates that this fish is mesophagous. Among of living creature consumes by Caspian Vimba mollusks, 76 arthropods, worms, plants, detritus and fishes were found 32.9% , 26.7% , 13.4% , 17% , 4.4% and 1.6% respectively. The infinite fork lengths were 261 mm for females, 25mm for males and 261 mm for both sexes respectively. For population growth and mortality parameters; K ( 0.28 per year for both sexes, 0.3 per year for males, 0.33 per year for females); t0 ( -0.65 year for both sexes, -0.23 year in females, -0.51 year in males ); Φ' ( 2.28 ); Z ( 0.98 per year ); M ( 0.59 per year); F ( 0.39 per year) and Exploitation coefficient was 0.4. The analysis showed that total biomass and MSY were 1336 and 528.8 tonnes respectively.

How neurons migrate: a dynamic in-silico model of neuronal migration in the developing cortex.

BACKGROUND: Neuronal migration, the process by which neurons migrate from their place of origin to their final position in the brain, is a central process for normal brain development and function. Advances in experimental techniques have revealed much about many of the molecular components involved in this process. Notwithstanding these advances, how the molecular machinery works together to govern the migration process has yet to be fully understood. Here we present a computational model of neuronal migration, in which four key molecular entities, Lis1, DCX, Reelin and GABA, form a molecular program that mediates the migration process. RESULTS: The model simulated the dynamic migration process, consistent with in-vivo observations of morphological, cellular and population-level phenomena. Specifically, the model reproduced migration phases, cellular dynamics and population distributions that concur with experimental observations in normal neuronal development. We tested the model under reduced activity of Lis1 and DCX and found an aberrant development similar to observations in Lis1 and DCX silencing expression experiments. Analysis of the model gave rise to unforeseen insights that could guide future experimental study. Specifically: (1) the model revealed the possibility that under conditions of Lis1 reduced expression, neurons experience an oscillatory neuron-glial association prior to the multipolar stage; and (2) we hypothesized that observed morphology variations in rats and mice may be explained by a single difference in the way that Lis1 and DCX stimulate bipolar motility. From this we make the following predictions: (1) under reduced Lis1 and enhanced DCX expression, we predict a reduced bipolar migration in rats, and (2) under enhanced DCX expression in mice we predict a normal or a higher bipolar migration. CONCLUSIONS: We present here a system-wide computational model of neuronal migration that integrates theory and data within a precise, testable framework. Our model accounts for a range of observable behaviors and affords a computational framework to study aspects of neuronal migration as a complex process that is driven by a relatively simple molecular program. Analysis of the model generated new hypotheses and yet unobserved phenomena that may guide future experimental studies. This paper thus reports a first step toward a comprehensive in-silico model of neuronal migration.

Temporal and Spatial Distributions of Rotifers in Xiangxi Bay of the Three Gorges Reservoir, China

From July 2003 to June 2005, investigations of rotifer temporal and spatial distributions were carried out in a bay of the Three Gorges Reservoir, Xiangxi Bay, which is the downstream segment of the Xiangxi River and the nearest bay to the Three Gorges Reservoir dam in Hubei Province, China. Thirteen sampling sites were selected. The results revealed a high species diversity, with 76 species, and 14 dominant species; i.e., Polyarthra vulgaris, Keratella cochlearis, Keratella valga, Synchaeta tremula, Synchaeta stylata, Trichocerca lophoessa, Trichocerca pusilla, Brachionus angularis, Brachionus calyciflorus, Brachionus forficula forficula, Ascomorpha ovalis, Conochilus unicornis, Ploesoma truncatum and Anuraeopsis fissa. After the first year of the reservoir impoundment, the rotifer community was dominated by ten species; one year later it was dominated by eight species. The community in 2003/2004 was dissimilar to that in 2004/2005, which resulted from the succession of the dominant species. The rotifer community exhibited a patchy distribution, with significant heterogeneity observed along the longitudinal axis. All rotifer communities could be divided into three groups, corresponding to the riverine, the transition and the lacustrine zone, respectively.

HYDROGRAPHIC VARIATIONS IN SIZE STRUCTURE OF PLANKTON BIOMASS IN A CHANGJIANG FLOODPLAIN LAKE

The size structure of the planktonic community in a Changjiang floodplain lake (Lake Chenhu, Hubei, P. R. China) was described for the inundation period of May through September 1983. The modality of the Sheldon-type size distributions changed hydrographically with the spectral profiles being bimodal during low, rising, mid-high and falling water phases, and trimodal soon after filling and shortly before falling. The modal peaks corresponded respectively to the dominant organisms of chlorophytes and nauplii, while the troughs centered on the bacteria and macrocrustacean size classes in the lake. The slope of the normalized biomass spectrum (an index of plankton size distribution) was less than -1.0 for the filling and falling phases or close to -1.0 for the high water period, indicating that the planktonic biomass tended to decrease or evenly distributes across logarithmically ordered size classes, respectively. This observed variation in the size distribution of the plankton community mainly resulted from changes in water levels and contents of particulate inorganic matter (PIM) in the lake.

Upgrading of liquid fuel from the vacuum pyrolysis of biomass over the Mo-Ni/gamma-Al2O3 catalysts

High amounts of acid compounds in bio-oil not only lead to the deleterious properties such as corrosiveness and high acidity, but also set up many obstacles to its wide applications. By hydrotreating the bio-oil under mild conditions, some carboxylic acid compounds could be converted to alcohols which would esterify with the unconverted acids in the bio-oil to produce esters. The properties of the bio-oil could be improved by this method. In the paper, the raw bio-oil was produced by vacuum pyrolysis of pine sawdust. The optimal production conditions were investigated. A series of nickel-based catalysts were prepared. Their catalytic activities were evaluated by upgrading of model compound (glacial acetic acid). Results showed that the reduced Mo-10Ni/gamma-Al2O3 catalyst had the highest activity with the acetic acid conversion of 33.2%. Upgrading of the raw bio-oil was investigated over reduced Mo-10Ni/gamma-Al2O3 catalyst. After the upgrading process, the pH value of the bio-oil increased from 2.16 to 2.84. The water content increased from 46.2 wt.% to 58.99 wt.%. The H element content in the bio-oil increased from 6.61 wt.% to 6.93 wt.%. The dynamic viscosity decreased a little. The results of GC-MS spectrometry analysis showed that the ester compounds in the upgraded bio-oil increased by 3 times. it is possible to improve the properties of bio-oil by hydrotreating and esterifying carboxyl group compounds in the bio-oil.