871 resultados para Dynamic Model Averaging
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Esse artigo apresenta um modelo dinâmico de competição em precos que incorpora tanto custos de procura quanto custos de switching e onde que as decisões do consumidor e das firmas são simultâneas. Dadas as hipóteses feitas n ós veremos que este modelo possui equilí brio. As principais propriedades do equil íbrio deste modelo são: Se os custos de procura forem baixos o suficiente, em equilí brio o consumidor vai procurar todas as firmas no mercado enquanto que o aumento dos custos de procura vai reduzir a propor cão de firmas que o consumidor busca. Um resultado contraintuitivo e que os pre cos esperados pagos pelo consumidor normalmente decresce em nossas computa cões numéricas do equil íbrio quando os custos de procura aumentam. Enquanto que aumentar os custos de switching tamb ém vai produzir o resultado contraituitivo que as firmas unmatched vão diminuir suas ofertas de modo a atrair o consumidor.
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We develop a model for spiral galaxies based on a nonlinear realization of the Newtonian dynamics starting from the momentum and mass conservations in the phase space. The radial solution exhibits a rotation curve in qualitative accordance with the observational data.
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Dynamical properties of the U-238-U-238 system at the classical turning point, specifically the distance of closest approach, the relative orientations of the nuclei, and deformations have been studied at the sub-Coulomb energy of E(lab) = 6.07 MeV/nucleon using a classical dynamical model with a variable moment of inertia. Probability of favorable alignment for anomalous positron-electron pair emission through vacuum decay is calculated. The calculated small favorable alignment probability value of 0.116 is found to be enhanced by about 16% in comparison with the results of a similar study using a fixed moment of inertia as well as the results from a semiquantal calculation reported earlier.
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Morphing aircraft have the ability to actively adapt and change their shape to achieve different missions efficiently. The development of morphing structures is deeply related with the ability to model precisely different designs in order to evaluate its characteristics. This paper addresses the dynamic modeling of a sectioned wing profile (morphing airfoil) connected by rotational joints (hinges). In this proposal, a pair of shape memory alloy (SMA) wires are connected to subsequent sections providing torque by reducing its length (changing airfoil camber). The dynamic model of the structure is presented for one pair of sections considering the system with one degree of freedom. The motion equations are solved using numerical techniques due the nonlinearities of the model. The numerical results are compared with experimental data and a discussion of how good this approach captures the physical phenomena associated with this problem. © The Society for Experimental Mechanics, Inc. 2012.
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[EN]A new one-dimensional model of DMSP/DMS dynamics (DMOS) is developed and applied to the Sargasso Sea in order to explain what drives the observed dimethylsulfide (DMS) summer paradox: a summer DMS concentration maximum concurrent with a minimum in the biomass of phytoplankton, the producers of the DMS precursor dimethylsulfoniopropionate (DMSP). Several mechanisms have been postulated to explain this mismatch: a succession in phytoplankton species composition towards higher relative abundances of DMSP producers in summer; inhibition of bacterial DMS consumption by ultraviolet radiation (UVR); and direct DMS production by phytoplankton due to UVR-induced oxidative stress. None of these hypothetical mechanisms, except for the first one, has been tested with a dynamic model. We have coupled a new sulfur cycle model that incorporates the latest knowledge on DMSP/DMS dynamics to a preexisting nitrogen/carbon-based ecological model that explicitly simulates the microbial-loop. This allows the role of bacteria in DMS production and consumption to be represented and quantified. The main improvements of DMOS with respect to previous DMSP/DMS models are the explicit inclusion of: solar-radiation inhibition of bacterial sulfur uptakes; DMS exudation by phytoplankton caused by solar-radiation-induced stress; and uptake of dissolved DMSP by phytoplankton. We have conducted a series of modeling experiments where some of the DMOS sulfur paths are turned “off” or “on,” and the results on chlorophyll-a, bacteria, DMS, and DMSP (particulate and dissolved) concentrations have been compared with climatological data of these same variables. The simulated rate of sulfur cycling processes are also compared with the scarce data available from previous works. All processes seem to play a role in driving DMS seasonality. Among them, however, solar-radiation-induced DMS exudation by phytoplankton stands out as the process without which the model is unable to produce realistic DMS simulations and reproduce the DMS summer paradox.
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PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Predicting asthma episodes is notoriously difficult but has potentially significant consequences for the individual, as well as for healthcare services. The purpose of this review is to describe recent insights into the prediction of acute asthma episodes in relation to classical clinical, functional or inflammatory variables, as well as present a new concept for evaluating asthma as a dynamically regulated homeokinetic system. RECENT FINDINGS: Risk prediction for asthma episodes or relapse has been attempted using clinical scoring systems, considerations of environmental factors and lung function, as well as inflammatory and immunological markers in induced sputum or exhaled air, and these are summarized here. We have recently proposed that newer mathematical methods derived from statistical physics may be used to understand the complexity of asthma as a homeokinetic, dynamic system consisting of a network comprising multiple components, and also to assess the risk for future asthma episodes based on fluctuation analysis of long time series of lung function. SUMMARY: Apart from the classical analysis of risk factor and functional parameters, this new approach may be used to assess asthma control and treatment effects in the individual as well as in future research trials.
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This paper examines whether the IMF high interest rate policy was suitable for crisis-ridden East Asian economies. Using an "overshoot" model similar to that of Dornbusch's (1976), it shows that this sort of policy might cause an unnecessary deflationary adjusting process and have no effect on containing the real depreciation of exchange rates in the long run. The study also demonstrates that Thai economic data coincides quite well with the model presented here. Finally, it points out that the high interest policy itself might provoke high risk-premium, the existence of which, in turn, justifies the policy. This means that the policy has a self-fulfilling property. In conclusion, a "one-size-fits-all" adaptation of high interest rate policy in a currency crisis is very dangerous in general, and was inappropriate for East Asia. The desirable policy would have been to let currencies depreciate and keep interest rates stable.
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Models are an effective tool for systems and software design. They allow software architects to abstract from the non-relevant details. Those qualities are also useful for the technical management of networks, systems and software, such as those that compose service oriented architectures. Models can provide a set of well-defined abstractions over the distributed heterogeneous service infrastructure that enable its automated management. We propose to use the managed system as a source of dynamically generated runtime models, and decompose management processes into a composition of model transformations. We have created an autonomic service deployment and configuration architecture that obtains, analyzes, and transforms system models to apply the required actions, while being oblivious to the low-level details. An instrumentation layer automatically builds these models and interprets the planned management actions to the system. We illustrate these concepts with a distributed service update operation.
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Nowadays robots have made their way into real applications that were prohibitive and unthinkable thirty years ago. This is mainly due to the increase in power computations and the evolution in the theoretical field of robotics and control. Even though there is plenty of information in the current literature on this topics, it is not easy to find clear concepts of how to proceed in order to design and implement a controller for a robot. In general, the design of a controller requires of a complete understanding and knowledge of the system to be controlled. Therefore, for advanced control techniques the systems must be first identified. Once again this particular objective is cumbersome and is never straight forward requiring of great expertise and some criteria must be adopted. On the other hand, the particular problem of designing a controller is even more complex when dealing with Parallel Manipulators (PM), since their closed-loop structures give rise to a highly nonlinear system. Under this basis the current work is developed, which intends to resume and gather all the concepts and experiences involve for the control of an Hydraulic Parallel Manipulator. The main objective of this thesis is to provide a guide remarking all the steps involve in the designing of advanced control technique for PMs. The analysis of the PM under study is minced up to the core of the mechanism: the hydraulic actuators. The actuators are modeled and experimental identified. Additionally, some consideration regarding traditional PID controllers are presented and an adaptive controller is finally implemented. From a macro perspective the kinematic and dynamic model of the PM are presented. Based on the model of the system and extending the adaptive controller of the actuator, a control strategy for the PM is developed and its performance is analyzed with simulation.
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Present research is framed within the project MODIFICA (MODelo predictivo - edIFIcios - Isla de Calor urbanA) aimed at developing a predictive model for dwelling energy performance under the urban heat island effect in order to implement it in the evaluation of real energy demand and consumption of dwellings as well as in the selection of energy retrofitting strategies. It is funded by Programa de I+D+i orientada a los retos de la sociedad 'Retos Investigación' 2013. Despite great advances on building energy performance have been achieved during the last years, available climate data is derived from weather stations placed in the outskirts of the city. Hence, urban heat island effect is not considered in energy simulations, which implies an important lack of accuracy. Since 1980's several international studies have been conducted on the urban heat island (UHI) phenomena, which modifies the atmospheric conditions of the urban centres due to urban agglomeration [1][2][3][4]. In the particular case of Madrid, multiple maps haven been generated using different methodologies during the last two decades [5][6][7]. These maps allow us to study the UHI phenomena from a wide perspective, offering however an static representation of it. Consequently a dynamic model for Madrid UHI is proposed, in order to evaluate it in a continuous way, and to be able to integrate it in building energy simulations.
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Esta investigación se enmarca dentro del proyecto MODIFICA (modelo predictivo - Edificios - Isla de Calor Urbano), financiado por el Programa de I + D + i Orientada a los Retos de la sociedad 'Retos Investigación' de 2013. Está dirigido a desarrollar un modelo predictivo de eficiencia energética para viviendas, bajo el efecto de isla de calor urbano (AUS) con el fin de ponerla en práctica en la evaluación de la demanda de energía real y el consumo en las viviendas. A pesar de los grandes avances que se han logrado durante los últimos años en el rendimiento energético de edificios, los archivos de tiempo utilizados en la construcción de simulaciones de energía se derivan generalmente de estaciones meteorológicas situadas en las afueras de la ciudad. Por lo tanto, el efecto de la Isla de Calor Urbano (ICU) no se considera en estos cálculos, lo que implica una importante falta de precisión. Centrado en explorar cómo incluir los fenómenos ICU, el presente trabajo recopila y analiza la dinámica por hora de la temperatura en diferentes lugares dentro de la ciudad de Madrid. Abstract This research is framed within the project MODIFICA (Predictive model - Buildings - Urban Heat Island), funded by Programa de I+D+i orientada a los retos de la sociedad 'Retos Investigación' 2013. It is aimed at developing a predictive model for dwelling energy performance under the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect in order to implement it in the evaluation of real energy demand and consumption in dwellings. Despite great advances on building energy performance have been achieved during the last years, weather files used in building energy simulations are usually derived from weather stations placed in the outskirts of the city. Hence, Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect is not considered in this calculations, which implies an important lack of accuracy. Focused on exploring how to include the UHI phenomena, the present paper compiles and analyses the hourly dynamics of temperature in different locations within the city of Madrid.
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Recently individual two-headed kinesin molecules have been studied in in vitro motility assays revealing a number of their peculiar transport properties. In this paper we propose a simple and robust model for the kinesin stepping process with elastically coupled Brownian heads that show all of these properties. The analytic and numerical treatment of our model results in a very good fit to the experimental data and practically has no free parameters. Changing the values of the parameters in the restricted range allowed by the related experimental estimates has almost no effect on the shape of the curves and results mainly in a variation of the zero load velocity that can be directly fitted to the measured data. In addition, the model is consistent with the measured pathway of the kinesin ATPase.