Predictive models of syncope causes in an outpatient clinic

The investigation of unexplained syncope remains a challenging clinical problem. In the present study we sought to evaluate the diagnostic value of a standardized work-up focusing on non invasive tests in patients with unexplained syncope referred to a syncope clinic, and whether certain combinations of clinical parameters are characteristic of rhythmic and reflex causes of syncope. METHODS AND RESULTS: 317 consecutive patients underwent a standardized work-up including a 12-lead ECG, physical examination, detailed history with screening for syncope-related symptoms using a structured questionnaire followed by carotid sinus massage (CSM), and head-up tilt test. Invasive testings including an electrophysiological study and implantation of a loop recorder were only performed in those with structural heart disease or traumatic syncope. Our work-up identified an etiology in 81% of the patients. Importantly, three quarters of the causes were established non invasively combining head-up tilt test, CSM and hyperventilation testing. Invasive tests yielded an additional 7% of diagnoses. Logistic analysis identified age and number of significant prodromes as the only predictive factors of rhythmic syncope. The same two factors, in addition to the duration of the ECG P-wave, were also predictive of vasovagal and psychogenic syncope. These factors, optimally combined in predictive models, showed a high negative and a modest positive predictive value. CONCLUSION: A standardized work-up focusing on non invasive tests allows to establish more than three quarters of syncope causes. Predictive models based on simple clinical parameters may help to distinguish between rhythmic and other causes of syncope

Discrete time Non-homogeneous Semi-Markov Processes applied to Models for Disability Insurance

In this paper, we present a stochastic model for disability insurance contracts. The model is based on a discrete time non-homogeneous semi-Markov process (DTNHSMP) to which the backward recurrence time process is introduced. This permits a more exhaustive study of disability evolution and a more efficient approach to the duration problem. The use of semi-Markov reward processes facilitates the possibility of deriving equations of the prospective and retrospective mathematical reserves. The model is applied to a sample of contracts drawn at random from a mutual insurance company.

Business Cycles, Unemployment Insurance, and the Calibration of Matching Models

This paper points out an empirical puzzle that arises when an RBC economy with a job matching function is used to model unemployment. The standard model can generate sufficiently large cyclical fluctuations in unemployment, or a sufficiently small response of unemployment to labor market policies, but it cannot do both. Variable search and separation, finite UI benefit duration, efficiency wages, and capital all fail to resolve this puzzle. However, both sticky wages and match-specific productivity shocks help the model reproduce the stylized facts: both make the firm's flow of surplus more procyclical, thus making hiring more procyclical too.

Business cycles, unemployment insurance and the calibration of matching models

This paper theoretically and empirically documents a puzzle that arises when an RBC economy with a job matching function is used to model unemployment. The standard model can generate sufficiently large cyclical fluctuations in unemployment, or a sufficiently small response of unemployment to labor market policies, but it cannot do both. Variable search and separation, finite UI benefit duration, efficiency wages, and capital all fail to resolve this puzzle. However, either sticky wages or match-specific productivity shocks can improve the model's performance by making the firm's flow of surplus more procyclical, which makes hiring more procyclical too.

Effects of prior repeated-sprints with different recovery duration on oxygen uptake kinetics during subsequent heavy-exercise

Introduction: Prior repeated-sprints (6) has become an interesting method to resolve the debate surrounding the principal factors that limits the oxygen uptake (V'O2) kinetics at the onset of exercise [i.e., muscle O2 delivery (5) or metabolic inertia (3)]. The aim of this study was to compare the effects of two repeated-sprints sets of 6x6s separated by different recovery duration between the sprints on V'O2 and muscular de-oxygenation [HHb] kinetics during a subsequent heavy-intensity exercise. Methods: 10 male subjects performed a 6-min constant-load cycling test (T50) at intensity corresponding to half of the difference between V'O2max and the ventilatory threshold. Then, they performed two repeated-sprints sets of 6x6s all-out separated by different recovery duration between the sprints (S1:30s and S2:3min) followed, after 7-min-recovery, by the T50 (S1T50 and S2T50, respectively). V'O2, [HHb] of the vastus lateralis (VL) and surface electromyography activity [i.e., root-mean-square (RMS) and the median frequency of the power density spectrum (MDF)] from VL and vastus medialis (VM) were recorded throughout T50. Models using a bi-exponential function for the overall T50 and a mono-exponential for the first 90s of T50 were used to define V'O2 and [HHb] kinetics respectively. Results: V'O2 mean value was higher in S1 (2.9±0.3l.min-1) than in S2 (1.2±0.3l.min-1); (p<0.001). The peripheral blood flow was increased after sprints as attested by a higher basal heart rate (HRbaseline) (S1T50: +22%; S2T50: +17%; p≤0.008). Time delay [HHb] was shorter for S1T50 and S2T50 than for T50 (-22% for both; p≤0.007) whereas the mean response time of V'O2 was accelerated only after S1 (S1T50: 32.3±2.5s; S2T50: 34.4±2.6s; T50: 35.7±5.4s; p=0.031). There were no significant differences in RMS between the three conditions (p>0.05). MDF of VM was higher during the first 3-min in S1T50 than in T50 (+6%; p≤0.05). Conclusion: The study show that V'O2 kinetics was speeded by prior repeated-sprints with a short (30s) but not a long (3min) inter-sprints-recovery even though the [HHb] kinetics was accelerated and the peripheral blood flow was enhanced after both sprints. S1, inducing a greater PCr depletion (1) and change in the pattern of the fibres recruitment (increase in MDF) compared with S2, may decrease metabolic inertia (2), stimulate the oxidative phosphorylation activation (4) and accelerate V'O2 kinetics at the beginning of the subsequent high-intensity exercise.

Effects of prior repeated-sprints with different recovery duration on oxygen uptake kinetics during subsequent heavy-exercise.

Introduction: Prior repeated-sprints (6) has become an interesting method to resolve the debate surrounding the principal factors that limits the oxygen uptake (V'O2) kinetics at the onset of exercise [i.e., muscle O2 delivery (5) or metabolic inertia (3)]. The aim of this study was to compare the effects of two repeated-sprints sets of 6x6s separated by different recovery duration between the sprints on V'O2 and muscular de-oxygenation [HHb] kinetics during a subsequent heavy-intensity exercise. Methods: 10 male subjects performed a 6-min constant-load cycling test (T50) at intensity corresponding to half of the difference between V'O2max and the ventilatory threshold. Then, they performed two repeated-sprints sets of 6x6s all-out separated by different recovery duration between the sprints (S1:30s and S2:3min) followed, after 7-min-recovery, by the T50 (S1T50 and S2T50, respectively). V'O2, [HHb] of the vastus lateralis (VL) and surface electromyography activity [i.e., root-mean-square (RMS) and the median frequency of the power density spectrum (MDF)] from VL and vastus medialis (VM) were recorded throughout T50. Models using a bi-exponential function for the overall T50 and a mono-exponential for the first 90s of T50 were used to define V'O2 and [HHb] kinetics respectively. Results: V'O2 mean value was higher in S1 (2.9±0.3l.min-1) than in S2 (1.2±0.3l.min-1); (p<0.001). The peripheral blood flow was increased after sprints as attested by a higher basal heart rate (HRbaseline) (S1T50: +22%; S2T50: +17%; p≤0.008). Time delay [HHb] was shorter for S1T50 and S2T50 than for T50 (-22% for both; p≤0.007) whereas the mean response time of V'O2 was accelerated only after S1 (S1T50: 32.3±2.5s; S2T50: 34.4±2.6s; T50: 35.7±5.4s; p=0.031). There were no significant differences in RMS between the three conditions (p>0.05). MDF of VM was higher during the first 3-min in S1T50 than in T50 (+6%; p≤0.05). Conclusion: The study show that V'O2 kinetics was speeded by prior repeated-sprints with a short (30s) but not a long (3min) inter-sprints-recovery even though the [HHb] kinetics was accelerated and the peripheral blood flow was enhanced after both sprints. S1, inducing a greater PCr depletion (1) and change in the pattern of the fibres recruitment (increase in MDF) compared with S2, may decrease metabolic inertia (2), stimulate the oxidative phosphorylation activation (4) and accelerate V'O2 kinetics at the beginning of the subsequent high-intensity exercise.

Radiation therapy duration influences overall survival in patients with cervical carcinoma.

OBJECTIVE: This article analyses the influence of treatment duration on survival in patients with invasive carcinoma of the cervix treated by radical radiation therapy. METHOD: Three hundred and sixty patients with FIGO stage IB-IIIB carcinoma of the cervix were treated in Lausanne (Switzerland) with external radiation and brachytherapy as first line therapy. Median therapy duration was 45 days. Patients were classified according to the duration of the therapies, taking 60 days (the 75th percentile) as an arbitrary cut-off. RESULTS: The 5-year survival was 61% (S.E. = 3%) for the therapy duration group of less than 60 days and 53% (S.E. = 7%) for the group of more than 60 days. In terms of univariate hazard ratio (HR), the relative difference between the two groups corresponds to a 50% increase of deaths (HR = 1.53, 95% CI = 1.03-2.28) for the longer therapy duration group (P = 0.044). In a multivariate analysis, the magnitude of estimated relative hazards for the longer therapies are confirmed though significance was reduced (HR = 1.52, 95% CI = 0.94-2.45, P = 0.084). CONCLUSION: These findings suggest that short treatment duration is a factor associated with longer survival in carcinoma of the cervix.

Dynamic models of viral replication and latency.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: HIV targets primary CD4(+) T cells. The virus depends on the physiological state of its target cells for efficient replication, and, in turn, viral infection perturbs the cellular state significantly. Identifying the virus-host interactions that drive these dynamic changes is important for a better understanding of viral pathogenesis and persistence. The present review focuses on experimental and computational approaches to study the dynamics of viral replication and latency. RECENT FINDINGS: It was recently shown that only a fraction of the inducible latently infected reservoirs are successfully induced upon stimulation in ex-vivo models while additional rounds of stimulation make allowance for reactivation of more latently infected cells. This highlights the potential role of treatment duration and timing as important factors for successful reactivation of latently infected cells. The dynamics of HIV productive infection and latency have been investigated using transcriptome and proteome data. The cellular activation state has shown to be a major determinant of viral reactivation success. Mathematical models of latency have been used to explore the dynamics of the latent viral reservoir decay. SUMMARY: Timing is an important component of biological interactions. Temporal analyses covering aspects of viral life cycle are essential for gathering a comprehensive picture of HIV interaction with the host cell and untangling the complexity of latency. Understanding the dynamic changes tipping the balance between success and failure of HIV particle production might be key to eradicate the viral reservoir.

Effects of prior repeated-sprints with different recovery duration on oxygen uptake kinetics during subsequent heavy-exercise

Introduction: Prior repeated-sprints (6) has become an interesting method to resolve the debate surrounding the principal factors that limits the oxygen uptake (V'O2) kinetics at the onset of exercise [i.e., muscle O2 delivery (5) or metabolic inertia (3)]. The aim of this study was to compare the effects of two repeated-sprints sets of 6x6s separated by different recovery duration between the sprints on V'O2 and muscular de-oxygenation [HHb] kinetics during a subsequent heavy-intensity exercise. Methods: 10 male subjects performed a 6-min constant-load cycling test (T50) at intensity corresponding to half of the difference between V'O2max and the ventilatory threshold. Then, they performed two repeated-sprints sets of 6x6s all-out separated by different recovery duration between the sprints (S1:30s and S2:3min) followed, after 7-min-recovery, by the T50 (S1T50 and S2T50, respectively). V'O2, [HHb] of the vastus lateralis (VL) and surface electromyography activity [i.e., root-mean-square (RMS) and the median frequency of the power density spectrum (MDF)] from VL and vastus medialis (VM) were recorded throughout T50. Models using a bi-exponential function for the overall T50 and a mono-exponential for the first 90s of T50 were used to define V'O2 and [HHb] kinetics respectively. Results: V'O2 mean value was higher in S1 (2.9±0.3l.min-1) than in S2 (1.2±0.3l.min-1); (p<0.001). The peripheral blood flow was increased after sprints as attested by a higher basal heart rate (HRbaseline) (S1T50: +22%; S2T50: +17%; p≤0.008). Time delay [HHb] was shorter for S1T50 and S2T50 than for T50 (-22% for both; p≤0.007) whereas the mean response time of V'O2 was accelerated only after S1 (S1T50: 32.3±2.5s; S2T50: 34.4±2.6s; T50: 35.7±5.4s; p=0.031). There were no significant differences in RMS between the three conditions (p>0.05). MDF of VM was higher during the first 3-min in S1T50 than in T50 (+6%; p≤0.05). Conclusion: The study show that V'O2 kinetics was speeded by prior repeated-sprints with a short (30s) but not a long (3min) inter-sprints-recovery even though the [HHb] kinetics was accelerated and the peripheral blood flow was enhanced after both sprints. S1, inducing a greater PCr depletion (1) and change in the pattern of the fibres recruitment (increase in MDF) compared with S2, may decrease metabolic inertia (2), stimulate the oxidative phosphorylation activation (4) and accelerate V'O2 kinetics at the beginning of the subsequent high-intensity exercise.

Effects of prior repeated-sprints with different recovery duration on oxygen uptake kinetics during subsequent heavy-exercise.

Introduction: Prior repeated-sprints (6) has become an interesting method to resolve the debate surrounding the principal factors that limits the oxygen uptake (V'O2) kinetics at the onset of exercise [i.e., muscle O2 delivery (5) or metabolic inertia (3)]. The aim of this study was to compare the effects of two repeated-sprints sets of 6x6s separated by different recovery duration between the sprints on V'O2 and muscular de-oxygenation [HHb] kinetics during a subsequent heavy-intensity exercise. Methods: 10 male subjects performed a 6-min constant-load cycling test (T50) at intensity corresponding to half of the difference between V'O2max and the ventilatory threshold. Then, they performed two repeated-sprints sets of 6x6s all-out separated by different recovery duration between the sprints (S1:30s and S2:3min) followed, after 7-min-recovery, by the T50 (S1T50 and S2T50, respectively). V'O2, [HHb] of the vastus lateralis (VL) and surface electromyography activity [i.e., root-mean-square (RMS) and the median frequency of the power density spectrum (MDF)] from VL and vastus medialis (VM) were recorded throughout T50. Models using a bi-exponential function for the overall T50 and a mono-exponential for the first 90s of T50 were used to define V'O2 and [HHb] kinetics respectively. Results: V'O2 mean value was higher in S1 (2.9±0.3l.min-1) than in S2 (1.2±0.3l.min-1); (p<0.001). The peripheral blood flow was increased after sprints as attested by a higher basal heart rate (HRbaseline) (S1T50: +22%; S2T50: +17%; p≤0.008). Time delay [HHb] was shorter for S1T50 and S2T50 than for T50 (-22% for both; p≤0.007) whereas the mean response time of V'O2 was accelerated only after S1 (S1T50: 32.3±2.5s; S2T50: 34.4±2.6s; T50: 35.7±5.4s; p=0.031). There were no significant differences in RMS between the three conditions (p>0.05). MDF of VM was higher during the first 3-min in S1T50 than in T50 (+6%; p≤0.05). Conclusion: The study show that V'O2 kinetics was speeded by prior repeated-sprints with a short (30s) but not a long (3min) inter-sprints-recovery even though the [HHb] kinetics was accelerated and the peripheral blood flow was enhanced after both sprints. S1, inducing a greater PCr depletion (1) and change in the pattern of the fibres recruitment (increase in MDF) compared with S2, may decrease metabolic inertia (2), stimulate the oxidative phosphorylation activation (4) and accelerate V'O2 kinetics at the beginning of the subsequent high-intensity exercise.

Development and evaluation of neural network models to estimate daily solar radiation at Córdoba, Argentina

The objective of this work was to develop neural network models of backpropagation type to estimate solar radiation based on extraterrestrial radiation data, daily temperature range, precipitation, cloudiness and relative sunshine duration. Data from Córdoba, Argentina, were used for development and validation. The behaviour and adjustment between values observed and estimates obtained by neural networks for different combinations of input were assessed. These estimations showed root mean square error between 3.15 and 3.88 MJ m-2 d-1 . The latter corresponds to the model that calculates radiation using only precipitation and daily temperature range. In all models, results show good adjustment to seasonal solar radiation. These results allow inferring the adequate performance and pertinence of this methodology to estimate complex phenomena, such as solar radiation.

Predicting chick body mass by artificial intelligence-based models

The objective of this work was to develop, validate, and compare 190 artificial intelligence-based models for predicting the body mass of chicks from 2 to 21 days of age subjected to different duration and intensities of thermal challenge. The experiment was conducted inside four climate-controlled wind tunnels using 210 chicks. A database containing 840 datasets (from 2 to 21-day-old chicks) - with the variables dry-bulb air temperature, duration of thermal stress (days), chick age (days), and the daily body mass of chicks - was used for network training, validation, and tests of models based on artificial neural networks (ANNs) and neuro-fuzzy networks (NFNs). The ANNs were most accurate in predicting the body mass of chicks from 2 to 21 days of age after they were subjected to the input variables, and they showed an R² of 0.9993 and a standard error of 4.62 g. The ANNs enable the simulation of different scenarios, which can assist in managerial decision-making, and they can be embedded in the heating control systems.

Sleep in vitro : Erk pathway regulates sleep duration and sleep related genes

To date, for most biological and physiological phenomena, the scientific community has reach a consensus on their related function, except for sleep, which has an undetermined, albeit mystery, function. To further our understanding of sleep function(s), we first focused on the level of complexity at which sleep-like phenomenon can be observed. This lead to the development of an in vitro model. The second approach was to understand the molecular and cellular pathways regulating sleep and wakefulness, using both our in vitro and in vivo models. The third approach (ongoing) is to look across evolution when sleep or wakefulness appears. (1) To address the question as to whether sleep is a cellular property and how this is linked to the entire brain functioning, we developed a model of sleep in vitro by using dissociated primary cortical cultures. We aimed at simulating the major characteristics of sleep and wakefulness in vitro. We have shown that mature cortical cultures display a spontaneous electrical activity similar to sleep. When these cultures are stimulated by waking neurotransmitters, they show a tonic firing activity, similar to wakefulness, but return spontaneously to the "sleep-like" state 24h after stimulation. We have also shown that transcriptional, electrophysiological, and metabolic correlates of sleep and wakefulness can be reliably detected in dissociated cortical cultures. (2) To further understand at which molecular and cellular levels changes between sleep and wakefulness occur, we have used a pharmacological and systematic gene transcription approach in vitro and discovered a major role played by the Erk pathway. Indeed, pharmacological inhibition of this pathway in living animals decreased sleep by 2 hours per day and consolidated both sleep and wakefulness by reducing their fragmentation. (3) Finally, we tried to evaluate the presence of sleep in one of the most primitive species with a neural network. We set up Hydra as a model organism. We hypothesized that sleep as a cellular (neuronal) property may occur with the appearance of the most primitive nervous system. We were able to show that Hydra have periodic rest phases amounting to up to 5 hours per day. In conclusion, our work established an in vitro model to study sleep, discovered one of the major signaling pathways regulating vigilance states, and strongly suggests that sleep is a cellular property highly conserved at the molecular level during evolution. -- Jusqu'à ce jour, la communauté scientifique s'est mise d'accord sur la fonction d'une majorité des processus physiologiques, excepté pour le sommeil. En effet, la fonction du sommeil reste un mystère, et aucun consensus n'est atteint le concernant. Pour mieux comprendre la ou les fonctions du sommeil, (1) nous nous sommes d'abord concentré sur le niveau de complexité auquel un état ressemblant au sommeil peut être observé. Nous avons ainsi développé un modèle du sommeil in vitro, (2) nous avons disséqué les mécanismes moléculaires et cellulaires qui pourraient réguler le sommeil, (3) nous avons cherché à savoir si un état de sommeil peut être trouvé dans l'hydre, l'animal le plus primitif avec un système nerveux. (1) Pour répondre à la question de savoir à quel niveau de complexité apparaît un état de sommeil ou d'éveil, nous avons développé un modèle du sommeil, en utilisant des cellules dissociées de cortex. Nous avons essayé de reproduire les corrélats du sommeil et de l'éveil in vitro. Pour ce faire, nous avons développé des cultures qui montrent les signes électrophysiologiques du sommeil, puis quand stimulées chimiquement passent à un état proche de l'éveil et retournent dans un état de sommeil 24 heures après la stimulation. Notre modèle n'est pas parfait, mais nous avons montré que nous pouvions obtenir les corrélats électrophysiologiques, transcriptionnels et métaboliques du sommeil dans des cellules corticales dissociées. (2) Pour mieux comprendre ce qui se passe au niveau moléculaire et cellulaire durant les différents états de vigilance, nous avons utilisé ce modèle in vitro pour disséquer les différentes voies de signalisation moléculaire. Nous avons donc bloqué pharmacologiquement les voies majeures. Nous avons mis en évidence la voie Erkl/2 qui joue un rôle majeur dans la régulation du sommeil et dans la transcription des gènes qui corrèlent avec le cycle veille-sommeil. En effet, l'inhibition pharmacologique de cette voie chez la souris diminue de 2 heures la quantité du sommeil journalier et consolide l'éveil et le sommeil en diminuant leur fragmentation. (3) Finalement, nous avons cherché la présence du sommeil chez l'Hydre. Pour cela, nous avons étudié le comportement de l'Hydre pendant 24-48h et montrons que des périodes d'inactivité, semblable au sommeil, sont présentes dans cette espèce primitive. L'ensemble de ces travaux indique que le sommeil est une propriété cellulaire, présent chez tout animal avec un système nerveux et régulé par une voie de signalisation phylogénétiquement conservée.

Intensity-duration-frequency ratios obtained from annual records and partial duration records in the locality of Pelotas - RS, Brazil

The intensity-duration-frequency occurrence ratio (IDF) is a tool commonly used for precipitation-runoff data transformation, which is established from observations of intense precipitations over a period sufficiently long as to allow the occurrence of extremes at the observation site. This study focused on verifying the existence or absence of new data, in terms of IDF ratio, by using partial duration records produced from data on maximum daily disaggregated rainfall for pre determined durations. The partial duration records considered a base value of 55 mm, totaling 279 values. After the rainfall series were established, their independence and seasonality were assessed. Using the Student's t-test statistics, it was established that no new data, as IDF ratio, emerged from the analysis of the partial duration series with the recommended base value of precipitation, as compared to the historical records.

Detection of the Vulnerable Atherosclerotic Plaque. Pre-Clinical Evaluation of Novel PET Imaging Probes With Experimental Models

Atherosclerosis is a life-long vascular inflammatory disease and the leading cause of death in Finland and in other western societies. The development of atherosclerotic plaques is progressive and they form when lipids begin to accumulate in the vessel wall. This accumulation triggers the migration of inflammatory cells that is a hallmark of vascular inflammation. Often, this plaque will become unstable and form vulnerable plaque which may rupture causing thrombosis and in the worst case, causing myocardial infarction or stroke. Identification of these vulnerable plaques before they rupture could save lives. At present, in the clinic, there exists no appropriated, non-invasive method for their identification. The aim of this thesis was to evaluate novel positron emission tomography (PET) probes for the detection of vulnerable atherosclerotic plaques and to characterize, two mouse models of atherosclerosis. These studies were performed by using ex vivo and in vivo imaging modalities. The vulnerability of atherosclerotic plaques was evaluated as expression of active inflammatory cells, namely macrophages. Age and the duration of high-fat diet had a drastic impact on the development of atherosclerotic plaques in mice. In imaging of atherosclerosis, 6-month-old mice, kept on high-fat diet for 4 months, showed matured, metabolically active, atherosclerotic plaques. [18F]FDG and 68Ga were accumulated in the areas representative of vulnerable plaques. However, the slow clearance of 68Ga limits its use for the plaque imaging. The novel synthesized [68Ga]DOTA-RGD and [18F]EF5 tracers demonstrated efficient uptake in plaques as compared to the healthy vessel wall, but the pharmacokinetic properties of these tracers were not optimal in used models. In conclusion, these studies resulted in the identification of new strategies for the assessment of plaque stability and mouse models of atherosclerosis which could be used for plaque imaging. In the used probe panel, [18F]FDG was the best tracer for plaque imaging. However, further studies are warranted to clarify the applicability of [18F]EF5 and [68Ga]DOTA-RGD for imaging of atherosclerosis with other experimental models.