Drivers of technology substitution : successive generations of high tech products

Principal Topic High technology consumer products such as notebooks, digital cameras and DVD players are not introduced into a vacuum. Consumer experience with related earlier generation technologies, such as PCs, film cameras and VCRs, and the installed base of these products strongly impacts the market diffusion of the new generation products. Yet technology substitution has received only sparse attention in the diffusion of innovation literature. Research for consumer durables has been dominated by studies of (first purchase) adoption (c.f. Bass 1969) which do not explicitly consider the presence of an existing product/technology. More recently, considerable attention has also been given to replacement purchases (c.f. Kamakura and Balasubramanian 1987). Only a handful of papers explicitly deal with the diffusion of technology/product substitutes (e.g. Norton and Bass, 1987: Bass and Bass, 2004). They propose diffusion-type aggregate-level sales models that are used to forecast the overall sales for successive generations. Lacking household data, these aggregate models are unable to give insights into the decisions by individual households - whether to adopt generation II, and if so, when and why. This paper makes two contributions. It is the first large-scale empirical study that collects household data for successive generations of technologies in an effort to understand the drivers of adoption. Second, in comparision to traditional analysis that evaluates technology substitution as an ''adoption of innovation'' type process, we propose that from a consumer's perspective, technology substitution combines elements of both adoption (adopting the new generation technology) and replacement (replacing the generation I product with generation II). Based on this proposition, we develop and test a number of hypotheses. Methodology/Key Propositions In some cases, successive generations are clear ''substitutes'' for the earlier generation, in that they have almost identical functionality. For example, successive generations of PCs Pentium I to II to III or flat screen TV substituting for colour TV. More commonly, however, the new technology (generation II) is a ''partial substitute'' for existing technology (generation I). For example, digital cameras substitute for film-based cameras in the sense that they perform the same core function of taking photographs. They have some additional attributes of easier copying and sharing of images. However, the attribute of image quality is inferior. In cases of partial substitution, some consumers will purchase generation II products as substitutes for their generation I product, while other consumers will purchase generation II products as additional products to be used as well as their generation I product. We propose that substitute generation II purchases combine elements of both adoption and replacement, but additional generation II purchases are solely adoption-driven process. Extensive research on innovation adoption has consistently shown consumer innovativeness is the most important consumer characteristic that drives adoption timing (Goldsmith et al. 1995; Gielens and Steenkamp 2007). Hence, we expect consumer innovativeness also to influence both additional and substitute generation II purchases. Hypothesis 1a) More innovative households will make additional generation II purchases earlier. 1 b) More innovative households will make substitute generation II purchases earlier. 1 c) Consumer innovativeness will have a stronger impact on additional generation II purchases than on substitute generation II purchases. As outlined above, substitute generation II purchases act, in part like a replacement purchase for the generation I product. Prior research (Bayus 1991; Grewal et al 2004) identified product age as the most dominant factor influencing replacements. Hence, we hypothesise that: Hypothesis 2: Households with older generation I products will make substitute generation II purchases earlier. Our survey of 8,077 households investigates their adoption of two new generation products: notebooks as a technology change to PCs, and DVD players as a technology shift from VCRs. We employ Cox hazard modelling to study factors influencing the timing of a household's adoption of generation II products. We determine whether this is an additional or substitute purchase by asking whether the generation I product is still used. A separate hazard model is conducted for additional and substitute purchases. Consumer Innovativeness is measured as domain innovativeness adapted from the scales of Goldsmith and Hofacker (1991) and Flynn et al. (1996). The age of the generation I product is calculated based on the most recent household purchase of that product. Control variables include age, size and income of household, and age and education of primary decision-maker. Results and Implications Our preliminary results confirm both our hypotheses. Consumer innovativeness has a strong influence on both additional purchases (exp = 1.11) and substitute purchases (exp = 1.09). Exp is interpreted as the increased probability of purchase for an increase of 1.0 on a 7-point innovativeness scale. Also consistent with our hypotheses, the age of the generation I product has a dramatic influence for substitute purchases of VCR/DVD (exp = 2.92) and a strong influence for PCs/notebooks (exp = 1.30). Exp is interpreted as the increased probability of purchase for an increase of 10 years in the age of the generation I product. Yet, also as hypothesised, there was no influence on additional purchases. The results lead to two key implications. First, there is a clear distinction between additional and substitute purchases of generation II products, each with different drivers. Treating these as a single process will mask the true drivers of adoption. For substitute purchases, product age is a key driver. Hence, implications for marketers of high technology products can utilise data on generation I product age (e.g. from warranty or loyalty programs) to target customers who are more likely to make a purchase.

Literature review

There are many studies that reveal the nature of design thinking and the nature of conceptual design as distinct from detailed or embodiment design. The results can assist in our understanding of how the process of design can be supported and how new technologies can be introduced into the workplace. Existing studies provide limited information about the nature of collaborative design as it takes place on the ground and in the actual working context. How to provide appropriate and effective of support for collaborative design information sharing across companies, countries and heterogeneous computer systems is a key issue. As data are passed between designers and the computer systems they employ, many exchanges are made. These exchanges may be used to establish measures of the benefits that new support systems can bring. Collaboration support tools represent a fast growing section of the commercial software market place and a reasonable range of products are available. Many of them offer significant application to design for the support of distributed meetings by the provision of video and audio communications and the sharing of information, including collaborative sketching. The tools that specifically support 3D models and other very design specific features are less common and many of those are in prototype stages of development. A key question is to find viable ways of combining design information visualisation support with the collaboration support technologies that can be seen today. When collaborating, different views will need to be accessible at different times to all the collaborators. The architects may want to explain some ideas on their model, the structural engineers on their model and so on. However, there are issues of ownership when the structural engineer wants to manipulate the architect’s model and vice versa. The modes of working, synchronous or asynchronous may have a bearing as in a synchronous session there is control of what is happening.

Generic skills in design teams : literature review

Recent developments in networked three dimensional (3D) virtual worlds, and the proliferation of high bandwidth communications technology, have the potential to dramatically improve collaboration in the construction industry. This research project focuses on the early stages of a construction project in which the models for the project are developed and revised. The project investigates three aspects of collaboration in virtual environments: 1. The processes that enable effective collaboration using high bandwidth information communication technology (ICT); 2. The models that allow for multiple disciplines to share their views in a synchronous virtual environment; 3. The generic skills used by individuals and teams when engaging with high bandwidth information communication technology. The third aspect of the project, listed above, led by the University of Newcastle, explores the domain of People and the extent to which they contribute to the effectiveness of virtual teams. This report relates, primarily, to this aspect.

Report : review of the literature : maintenance and rehabilitation costs for roads (Risk-based Analysis)

Realistic estimates of short- and long-term (strategic) budgets for maintenance and rehabilitation of road assessment management should consider the stochastic characteristics of asset conditions of the road networks so that the overall variability of road asset data conditions is taken into account. The probability theory has been used for assessing life-cycle costs for bridge infrastructures by Kong and Frangopol (2003), Zayed et.al. (2002), Kong and Frangopol (2003), Liu and Frangopol (2004), Noortwijk and Frangopol (2004), Novick (1993). Salem 2003 cited the importance of the collection and analysis of existing data on total costs for all life-cycle phases of existing infrastructure, including bridges, road etc., and the use of realistic methods for calculating the probable useful life of these infrastructures (Salem et. al. 2003). Zayed et. al. (2002) reported conflicting results in life-cycle cost analysis using deterministic and stochastic methods. Frangopol et. al. 2001 suggested that additional research was required to develop better life-cycle models and tools to quantify risks, and benefits associated with infrastructures. It is evident from the review of the literature that there is very limited information on the methodology that uses the stochastic characteristics of asset condition data for assessing budgets/costs for road maintenance and rehabilitation (Abaza 2002, Salem et. al. 2003, Zhao, et. al. 2004). Due to this limited information in the research literature, this report will describe and summarise the methodologies presented by each publication and also suggest a methodology for the current research project funded under the Cooperative Research Centre for Construction Innovation CRC CI project no 2003-029-C.

Barriers to e-business adoption in construction: international literature review

The adoption of e-business by the Australian construction industry lags other service and product industries. It is assumed that slow adoption rate does not reflect the maturity of the technology but is due to adoption barriers peculiar to the nature of construction. This paper examines impediments to the uptake of e-business nationally and internationally. A systematic and extensive literature search of barriers (also referred to as obstacles, impediments or hindrances) to adoption has been undertaken and the findings discussed in this paper. This review included more that 200 documents and these have been published in a searchable database as part of a larger research initiative funded by the Cooperative Research Centre for Construction Innovation. The influence of levels of e-business maturity seen in other sectors such as retail, tourism and manufacturing was also captured and a number of major barriers were identified some including: privacy, trust, uncertainty of financial returns, lack of reliable measurement, fraud, lack of support and system maintenance. A total of 23 barriers were assessed in terms of impact to organisational type and size across reviewed documents. With this information it was possible to develop a reference framework for measuring maturity levels and readiness to uptake e-business in construction. Results have also shown that barriers to e-business adoption work differently according to organisational type and culture. Areas of training and people development need to be addressed. This would include a more sensitive approach to the nature of construction organisations, especially to those small and medium enterprises. Raising levels of awareness and creating trust for on-line collaboration are other aspects that need attention, which current studies confirm as lacking. An empirical study within construction, to validate these findings, forms the subsequent phase of this research.

The role of decision-maker preferences in tenancy selection of CBD office accommodation – preliminary literature review

The literature and anecdotal evidence suggests that that there is more to tenancy selection (firm location) than the profit maximisation drive that traditional neo-classical economic location theory suggests. In the first instance these models assume property markets are rational and perfectly competitive; the CBD office market is clearly neither rational nor perfectly competitive. This fact alone relegates such models to the margins of usefulness for an industry that seeks to satisfy tenant demand in order to optimise returns on capital invested. Acknowledgment of property market imperfections are universally accepted to the extent that all contemporary texts discuss the lack of a coherent centralised market place and incomplete and poorly disseminated information processes as fundamental inadequacies which characterise the property market inefficiencies. Less well researched are the facets of the market which allow the observer to determine market activity to be significantly irrational. One such facet is that of ‘decision maker preferences’. The decision to locate a business operation at one location as opposed to another seems ostensibly a routine choice based on short, medium and long term business objectives. These objectives are derived from a process of strategic planning by one or more individuals whose goal is held to be to optimise outcomes which benefit the business (and presumably those employed within it). However the decision making processes appear bounded by how firms function, the institutional context in which they operate, as well as by opportunistic behaviour by individual decision makers who allow personal preferences to infiltrate and ‘corrupt’ the process. In this way, history, culture, geography, as well as institutions all become significant to the extent that these influence and shape individual behaviour which in turn determine the morphology of individual preferences, as well as providing a conduit for them to take effect. This paper exams historical and current literature on the impact of individual behaviour in the decision making process within organisations as a precursor to an investigation of the tenancy decision making process within the CBD office market. Literature on the topic falls within a number of research disciplines, philosophy, psychology and economics to name a few.

Open access policies, practices and licensing : a review of the literature in Australia and selected jurisdictions

The full economic, cultural and environmental value of information produced or funded by the public sector can be realised through enabling greater access to and reuse of the information. To do this effectively it is necessary to describe and implement a policy framework that supports greater access and reuse among a distributed, online network of information suppliers and users. The objective of this study was to identify materials dealing with policies, principles and practices relating to information access and reuse in Australia and in other key jurisdictions internationally. Open Access Policies, Practices and Licensing: A review of the literature in Australia and selected jurisdictions sets out the findings of an extensive review of published materials dealing with policies, practices and legal issues relating to information access and reuse, with a particular focus on materials generated, held or funded by public sector bodies. The report was produced as part of the work program of the project “Enabling Real-Time Information Access in Both Urban and Regional Areas”, established within the Cooperative Research Centre for Spatial Information (CRCSI).

Predicting driver's hypovigilance on monotonous roads: literature review.

Drivers' ability to react to unpredictable events deteriorates when exposed to highly predictable and uneventful driving tasks. Particularly, highway design reduces the driving task mainly to a lane-keeping one. It contributes to hypovigilance and road crashes as drivers are often not aware that their driving behaviour is impaired. Monotony increases fatigue, however, the fatigue community has mainly focused on endogenous factors leading to fatigue such as sleep deprivation. This paper focuses on the exogenous factor monotony which contributes to hypovigilance. Objective measurements of the effects of monotonous driving conditions on the driver and the vehicle's dynamics is systematically reviewed with the aim of justifying the relevance of the need for a mathematical framework that could predict hypovigilance in real-time. Although electroencephalography (EEG) is one of the most reliable measures of vigilance, it is obtrusive. This suggests to predict from observable variables the time when the driver is hypovigilant. Outlined is a vision for future research in the modelling of driver vigilance decrement due to monotonous driving conditions. A mathematical model for predicting drivers’ hypovigilance using information like lane positioning, steering wheel movements and eye blinks is provided. Such a modelling of driver vigilance should enable the future development of an in-vehicle device that detects driver hypovigilance in advance, thus offering the potential to enhance road safety and prevent road crashes.

Measuring safety effectiveness : literature review

Cohen (1977) reviewed the then current research on occupational safety and stated that both strong company commitment to safety, and communication between all levels of a company are the most influential factors to improving safety. Other relevant factors included careful selection of staff, and early and continuous training throughout the lifetime with the company. These continue to be important factors in OHS today. There has been a continued decrease in the injury rates since Cohen’s review within the Australian construction industry, however, the construction industry has far more injuries and ill-health than the Australian average, with one fatality occurring on average per week in the Australian Construction Industry. The Fatality rate in the building and construction industry remains three times higher than the national average, and 15% of all industry fatalities are in the building and construction industry. In addition the construction industry pays one of the highest workers’ compensation premium rates – in 2001 alone approximately 0.5% ($267 million) of revenue would have to be allocated to the direct cost of 1998/99 compensations (Office of the Federal Safety Commissioner, 2006). Based on these statistics there is a need to measure and improve safety performance within the construction industry.

Engaging with the promises of education : African refugee students in Australian secondary schools

The research reported in this paper investigated the engagement of students who arrived in Australian secondary schools as refugees from Africa. Enrolment of large cohorts of refugees from Africa is a relatively new phenomenon in the English-speaking West. The literature provides evidence that emotional engagement with the promises of schooling is strong for many of the young African refugees. Students envision successful professional careers as doctors, engineers, lawyers, and IT experts; they envision returning to their country as professionals able to help the people. The question investigated in this paper is: How does schooling in Australia impact on young African refugees’ education and career aspirations? Engagement is understood in Bourdieuian terms as dispositions to be and to become an educated person. This is a disposition which entails fundamental belief in the value of the stakes of schooling. The data analysed in the paper were produced in a study undertaken in the state of Queensland where 5000 of the 39 000 African refugees who have arrived in Australia since 2000 have settled. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with students and their parents and teachers after arrival in an intensive language school, and then after transition to a regular secondary school. The findings show both the durability and malleability of educational dispositions in conditions of dramatic social change occasioned by refugee experience. Engagement in the stakes of schooling is both built and eroded as students flee their homelands for countries of refuge. Previously unimaginable educational dreams are possible for some; but for others, long-held dreams become unattainable. The paper concludes with recommendations for better supporting young people through this re-shaping of self.

Is implementing criterion-referenced assessment worth the effort with gen Y?

Well implemented criterion-referenced assessment (CRA) requires dedicated time and effort, especially in describing realistic expectations of evidence of achievement to students in the form of criteria sheets (or grading rubrics). It is also takes time out of delivering content to teach students how to judge their own work using criteria sheets. In 2007, to engage third year Microbiology students in using criteria sheets for the first time in their degree, we devised an innovative assessment tutorial supported by online resources. We were sceptical of much of the literature that reported ‘agreed’ characteristics of our predominantly gen Y cohort, because of the older ages of the majority of authors. These authors claim gen Y has a propensity for digital media, overconfidence in their own abilities and a collaborative orientation. We rejected this stereotype when developing the tutorial. Evaluations by students were positive and there was no dramatic change to grades for the unit. These results are similar to those in the literature for non gen Y cohorts. This lends support to our claim that giving students control over their own learning, irrespective of their generational label, is worth the time and effort.