An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the tourism sector in Montserrat

This report provides an analysis and evaluation of the likely effects of climate change on the tourism sector in Montserrat. Clayton (2009) identifies three reasons why the Caribbean should be concerned about the potential effects of climate change on tourism: (a) the relatively high dependence on tourism as a source of foreign exchange and employment; (b) the intrinsic vulnerability of small islands and their infrastructure (e.g. hotels and resorts) to sea level rise and extreme climatic events (e.g. hurricanes and floods); and, (c) the high dependence of the regional tourist industry on carbon-based fuels (both to bring tourist to the region as well as to provide support services in the region). The effects of climate change are already being felt on the island. Between 1970 and 2009, there was a rise in the number of relatively hot days experienced on the island. Added to this, there was also a decline in mean precipitation over the period. Besides temperature, there is also the threat of wind speeds. Since the early 20th century, the number of hurricanes passing through the Caribbean has risen from about 5-6 per year to more than 25 in some years of the twenty-first century. In Montserrat, the estimated damage from four windstorms (including hurricanes) affecting the island was US$260 million or almost five times 2009 gross domestic product (GDP). Climate change is also likely to significantly affect coral reefs. Hoegh-Guldberg (2007) estimates that should current concentrations of carbon dioxide in the Earth’s atmosphere rise from 380ppm to 560ppm, decreases in coral calcification and growth by 40% are likely. The report attempted to quantify the likely effects of the changes in the climatic factors mentioned above. As it relates to temperature and other climatic variables, a tourism climatic index that captures the elements of climate that impact on a destination’s experience was constructed. The index was calculated using historical observations as well as those under two likely climate scenarios: A2 and B2. The results suggest that under both scenarios, the island’s key tourism climatic features will likely decline and therefore negatively impact on the destination experience of visitors. Including this tourism climatic index in a tourism demand model suggests that this would translate into losses of around 145% of GDP. As it relates to coral reefs, the value of the damage due to the loss of coral reefs was estimated at 7.6 times GDP, while the damage due to land loss for the tourism industry was 45% of GDP. The total cost of climate change for the tourism industry was therefore projected to be 9.6 times 2009 GDP over a 40-year horizon. Given the potential for significant damage to the industry, a large number of potential adaptation measures were considered. Out of these, a short-list of 9 potential options was selected using 10 evaluation criteria. These included: (a) Increasing recommended design wind speeds for new tourism-related structures; (b) Construction of water storage tanks; (c) Irrigation network that allows for the recycling of waste water; (d) Enhanced reef monitoring systems to provide early warning alerts of bleaching events; (e) Deployment of artificial reefs and fish-aggregating devices; (f) Developing national evacuation and rescue plans; (g) Introduction of alternative attractions; (h) Providing re-training for displaced tourism workers, and; (i) Revised policies related to financing national tourism offices to accommodate the new climatic realities Using cost-benefit analysis, three options were put forward as being financially viable and ready for immediate implementation: (a) Increase recommended design speeds for new tourism-related structures; (b) Enhance reef monitoring systems to provide early warning alerts of bleaching events, and; (c) Deploy artificial reefs or fish-aggregating devices. While these options had positive benefit cost ratios, other options were also recommended based on their non-tangible benefits: an irrigation network that allows for the recycling of waste water, development of national evacuation and rescue plans, providing retraining for displaced tourism workers and the revision of policies related to financing national tourism offices to accommodate the new climatic realities.

Caribbean tourism and agriculture: Linking to enhance development and competitiveness

This study examines current trends in tourism and agriculture in Caribbean countries and the strategy for linking them in order to facilitate their future development. The tourism industry has, in the past, developed largely apart from other sectors such as agriculture. On the other hand, agriculture has developed mainly to satisfy export markets. Domestic agriculture has had limited development and has therefore been displaced to a considerable extent by food imports. The recent promotion of agriculture tourism linkages is an attempt to enhance the local value added of the tourism industry, while at the same time promoting the development of domestic agriculture. However, it is argued that agriculture-tourism linkage per se will not facilitate the development of either tourism or agriculture. The nature of the tourism product in each country has to be understood before effective strategies could be devised for improving competitiveness. A similar approach is also necessary in respect of the agriculture sector. Increased linkage between tourism and agriculture could be enhanced through the adoption of a cluster-based strategy for improving the competitiveness of the tourism sector and for improving the livelihoods of communities and rural areas.

Domestic Minor Sex Trafficking: The Challenges Faced In Prosecuting Those Who Prey on America’s Youth

This commentary is a discussion of the article "Human Trafficking, Sex Tourism, and Child Exploitation on the Southern Border." Most importantly, it is a comment on the lack of attention given to American children prostituted in our own backyards. All forms of sex trafficking are deplorable but the plight of the American child victim creates unique challenges for prosecutors, law enforcement and non-governmental agencies working hard to bring the crimes involved with domestic minor sex trafficking to the forefront. To that end, this commentary attempts to provide resources and guidance.

Regional development rhrough domestic and tourist event policies: Gold Coast and Brisbane 1974-2003

Governments, as key stakeholders in the development of events, produce policies to facilitate the growth and potential of events as a platform for industry and economic development. To date, however, there has been a paucity of research undertaken to determine the appropriateness and the consequences of government policies pertaining to events. This paper studies the event policies of two Australian local government authorities, the Gold Coast City Council and Brisbane City Council, from 1974-2003, as measured by four development paradigms: Modernisation, Dependency, Economic Neoliberalism, and Alternative. The analysis revealed that these policies were predominantly underpinned by the Alternative which has a strong socio-cultural focus. Increased awareness and utilisation of the various development paradigms will assist local governments in producing future event policies to promote growth of the event industry and concomitantly, appropriate development within their region.

Stormy Outlook? Domestic students' impressions of international students at an Australian University

The education of international students in Australian universities has grown significantly over recent years, with Australia now having the highest ratio of international students to domestic students among the major English-speaking destinations popular with international students. While there is a variety of research that examines the learning experiences of international students, little research has been conducted that examines the impact that international students have on their domestic counterparts. This paper reports on research that solicits the perceived advantages and disadvantages held by 301 domestic students, who are sharing their educational experience with international students studying hospitality and tourism management. The study reveals that there is a sizable proportion of domestic students (28%) who consider that there are too many international students on campus; that domestic and international students do not readily mix and it also highlights the fact that racist incidents occur. It is suggested that institutions wishing to increase their number of international students must take into consideration the feelings and concerns of their domestic students.

The signalling effect of eco-labels in modern coastal tourism

As the demand for environmentally sustainable tourism grows, eco-labels are becoming increasingly popular as a signal of environmental quality. However, the existence of a causal link between awarding a seaside eco-label and the increase in tourism flows is still under discussion in the literature. In this article, we gauge the signalling impact of a specific eco-label, the Blue Flag award, using detailed data on tourism flows to seaside Italian destinations during the period 2008-2012. We adopt a recent econometric modelling strategy - the synthetic control method - in shaping estimation results and testing the sensitivity and robustness of our results. We find that being awarded the Blue Flag increases the flow of domestic tourists for up to three seasons after assignment. However, we find no effect for the flow of international tourists. Investigating the mechanisms driving the results, we find that the award of a Blue Flag only positively affects the flow of domestic tourists when it is used as a driver of organisation, coordination and integrated management of the tourism supply.

Tourism demand modelling and forecasting with artificial neural network models: the Mozambique case study

This study is aimed to model and forecast the tourism demand for Mozambique for the period from January 2004 to December 2013 using artificial neural networks models. The number of overnight stays in Hotels was used as representative of the tourism demand. A set of independent variables were experimented in the input of the model, namely: Consumer Price Index, Gross Domestic Product and Exchange Rates, of the outbound tourism markets, South Africa, United State of America, Mozambique, Portugal and the United Kingdom. The best model achieved has 6.5% for Mean Absolute Percentage Error and 0.696 for Pearson correlation coefficient. A model like this with high accuracy of forecast is important for the economic agents to know the future growth of this activity sector, as it is important for stakeholders to provide products, services and infrastructures and for the hotels establishments to adequate its level of capacity to the tourism demand.

Feminist Disability Theory: Domestic Violence Against Women with a Disability

Women with a disability continue to experience social oppression and domestic violence as a consequence of gender and disability dimensions. Current explanations of domestic violence and disability inadequately explain several features that lead women who have a disability to experience violent situations. This article incorporates both disability and material feminist theory as an alternative explanation to the dominant approaches (psychological and sociological traditions) of conceptualising domestic violence. This paper is informed by a study which was concerned with examining the nature and perceptions of violence against women with a physical impairment. The emerging analytical framework integrating material feminist interpretations and disability theory provided a basis for exploring gender and disability dimensions. Insight was also provided by the women who identified as having a disability in the study and who explained domestic violence in terms of a gendered and disabling experience. The article argues that material feminist interpretations and disability theory, with their emphasis on gender relations, disablism and poverty, should be used as an alternative tool for exploring the nature and consequences of violence against women with a disability.

Australian waterfalls as tourism attractions

For a largely arid country with generally low relief, Australia has a remarkably large number and variety of waterfalls. Found mainly near the coast, close to where most of the population lives and near the major tourist resort areas, these landscape features have long been popular scenic attractions. As sights to see and places to enjoy a variety of recreational activities, waterfalls continue to play an important role in Australia’s tourism, even in seaside resort areas where the main attractions are sunshine, sandy beaches and surf. The aesthetic appeal of waterfalls and their value as recreational resources are recognized by the inclusion of many in national parks. Even here, demands of visitors and pressures from developers raise serious problems. This paper examines the way in which waterfalls have been developed and promoted as tourist attractions, demonstrating their importance to Australian tourism. It considers threats to the sustainable use of waterfall resources posed by power schemes and, particularly, by the tourist industry itself. Queensland’s Gold Coast is selected as a case study, and comparisons are made with other areas in which waterfalls have played important roles as tourist attractions, especially the Yorkshire coast of northeast England. The discussion draws largely on an examination of tourist literature from the nineteenth to the twenty-first century, including holiday brochures and guide books, as well as other published sources, together with field observation in various parts of the world

Destination Positioning Slogans - Analysis of Themes used by New Zealand Regional Tourism Organisations

A significant gap in the tourism and travel literature exists in the area of tourism destination branding. Although brands have been used as sources of differentiation in consumer goods markets for over a century, academic research attention towards destination branding has only been reported since the late 1990s. Three important components of the brand construct are brand identity, brand position and brand image. While interest in applications of brand theory to practise in tourism is increasing, there is a paucity of published research in the literature to guide destination marketing organisations (DMOs). In particular there have been few reported analyses of destination brand positioning slogans. The focus of this paper is on destination brand position slogans, which represent the interface between brand identity and brand image. Part of a wider investigation of DMO slogans worldwide, and in keeping with the conference location, the paper focuses on analysis of slogans used by New Zealand RTOs. The slogans are examined in terms of the extent to which they have been limited to ephemeral indifference. In other words, have they stood the test of time and do they effectively differentiate through a meaningful proposition? Analysis of the slogans indicates very few could be characterised as memorably distinctive. This reflects the complexity involved in capturing the essence of a multi-attributed destination in a succinct and focused positioning slogan, in a way that is both meaningful to the target audience and effectively differentiates the destination from competitors offering the same benefits.

Tourism Destination Preferences: A Longitudinal Analysis of Consumer Decision Sets

There have only been a small number of applications of consumer decision set theory to holiday destination choice, and these studies have tended to rely on a single cross sectional snapshot of research participants’ stated preferences. Very little has been reported on the relationship between stated destination preferences and actual travel, or changes in decision set composition over time. The paper presents a rare longitudinal examination of destination decision sets, in the context of short break holidays by car in Queensland, Australia. Two questionnaires were administered, three months apart. The first identified destination preferences while the second examined actual travel and revisited destination preferences. In relation to the conference theme, there was very little change in consumer preferences towards the competitive set of destinations over the three month period. A key implication for the destination of interest, which, in an attempt to change market perceptions, launched a new brand campaign during the period of the project, is that a long term investment in a consistent brand message will be required to change market perceptions. The results go some way to support the proposition that the positioning of a destination into a consumer’s decision set represents a source of competitive advantage.