The environmental impacts of technical change

The thesis is concerned with relationships between profit, technology and environmental change. Existing work has concentrated on only a few questions, treated at either micro or macro levels of analysis. And there has been something of an impasse since the neoclassical and neomarxist approaches are either in direct conflict (macro level), or hardly interact (micro level). The aim of the thesis was to bypass this impasse by starting to develop a meso level of analysis that focusses on issues largely ignored in the traditional approaches - on questions about distribution. The first questions looked at were descriptive - what were the patterns of distribution over time of the variability in types and rates of environmental change, and in particular, was there any evidence of periodization? Two case studies were used to examine these issues. The first looked at environmental change in the iron and steel industry since 1700, and the second studied pollution in five industries in the basic processing sector. It was established that environmental change has been markedly periodized, with an apparently fairly regular `cycle length' of about fifty years. The second questions considered were explanatory - whether and how this periodization could be accounted for by reference to variations in aspects of profitability and technical change. In the iron and steel industry, it was found that diffusion rates and the rate of nature of innovation were periodized on the same pattern as was environmental change. And the same sort of variation was also present in the realm of profits, as evidenced by cyclical changes in output growth. Simple theoretical accounts could be given for all the empirically demonstrable links, and it was suggested that the most useful models at this meso level of analysis are provided by structural change models of economic development.

Technical change and work organisation

This thesis is an exploration of the social and political processes involved in the introduction of new technology to the shopfloor. Through a series of case studies of applications of microelectronics to batch manufacture, it attempts to uncover the ways in which the values and interests of managers, engineers, workers and others profoundly influence the choice and use of technology, and thus the work organisation which emerges. Previous analyses have tended to treat new technology as if it had "impacts" on work organisation - especially skills - which are inevitable in particular technical and economic circumstances. It is in opposition to this view that technical change is here treated as a matter for social choice and political negotiation, the various interested parties to the change being shown to attempt to incorporate their own interests into the technical and social organisation of work. Section one provides the relevant background to the case studies by summarising and criticising previous theoretical and empirical work in the area. The inadequacies of this work for our concerns are drawn out, and the need for detailed studies of the political aspects of technical change is justified. The case studies are presented in section two as a set of "episodes" of innovation, and section three analyses the empirical findings. The innovations are compared and contrasted in order to illustrate the social and political dynamics involved in the various stages of the innovation process. Finally some comments are made on policy issues for which the research has important implications.

Impacto del Internet en el ingreso laboral: análisis del lugar y manejo del Internet

Este estudio analiza el efecto del uso de Internet sobre el ingreso laboral, eliminado el problema de endogeneidad que existe por motivos de selección. También se analizan los efectos seg un el lugar de acceso y las actividades realizadas en Internet. Para esto se utiliza Propensity Score Matching, tomando información para Colombia entre el año 2009 a 2011. Los resultados muestran que existe un efecto positivo, significativo y heterogéneo entre trabajadores asalariados y cuenta propia, siendo los últimos los más beneficiados. Con respecto al lugar de uso se encuentra un impacto positivo del uso del Internet en el trabajo y/o en el hogar, con una mayor magnitud en el primer sitio de acceso. Para el tema del manejo del Internet, no se encuentra efecto cuando se utiliza en actividades de entretenimiento, pero si cuando se usa en tareas educativas diariamente. Esto siguiere que usar este servicio aumenta la productividad y el capital humano, lo que se transforma en un incremento en los ingresos. Por tanto, se encuentra que el lugar de uso es una señal informativa para el mercado laboral, mientras que el impacto del manejo de esta herramienta depende de la frecuencia con que se realicen las actividades.

The rise and fall in the price of food, fuel and manufactured goods : interdependency between prices and technology determining comparative advantages and development paths

Green innovation, which enables us to extract energy from food crops, caused a food shortage in 2008. Countries suffering severe damage started to reconsider their agricultural policy with the aim of becoming more autonomous. The food price hike of the time looks like a reversal of the celebrated Singer-Prebisch thesis proposed in the 1950s. This paper examines the consequences of this trend on the comparative advantages and development strategies of developing countries. For that purpose, first, trends and short-run fluctuations in the prices of fuel and bio-energy crops are investigated. It is shown that the price series of fuels and the crops are synchronized only after the fuel extracting technology came into effect. Second, the reversal of the Singer-Prebisch thesis is underpinned by the generic form of an endogenous growth model developed by Rebelo (1991). It is shown that as an economy grows, appreciation of the non-reproducible, such as mineral resources and raw labor, over the reproducible, such as capital goods, is the norm rather than an anomaly. Third, the consequences of the food price hike and underlying capital accumulation on the development strategies of labor-abundant and low-income countries are explored. It is concluded that the impact of the food price hikes on the alteration of a development strategy is only incremental, without reinforcement from raw-labor-saving innovation. A case study of inventions by JUKI Corporation, a world-leader in the sewing machine market exemplifies the fact that, of all the major inventions the company have made, raw-labor-saving inventions have not dominated, although JUKI's machines are sold to one of the most raw-labor-intensive industries.

Indigenous and foreign innovation efforts and drivers of technological upgrading:evidence from China

This paper explores the drivers of technology upgrading in emerging economies using a recent Chinese firm-level panel dataset over the 2001-2005 period. It extends the Directed Technical Change theory by considering differences in technology intensities across industries within a country; examines the drivers of technical change, efficiency improvement and TFP growth in Chinese manufacturing firms; and explores the roles of indigenous innovations and foreign technology. It finds that FDI contributes to static industry capabilities by advanced technologies embedded in imported machineries, but not to dynamic technological capabilities of indigenous firms in developing countries. Collective indigenous R&D activities at industry level are the major driver of technology upgrading of indigenous firms that push up the technology frontier. Policy implications are discussed.

Productivity, Technical and Efficiency Change in Singapore’s Services Sector, 2005 to 2008

The current study was motivated by statements made by the Economic Strategies Committee that Singapore’s recent productivity levels in services were well below countries such as the US, Japan and Hong Kong. Massive employment of foreign workers was cited as the reason for poor productivity levels. To shed more light on Singapore’s falling productivity, a nonparametric Malmquist productivity index was employed which provides measures of productivity change, technical change and efficiency change. The findings reveal that growth in total factor productivity was attributed to technical change with no improvement in efficiency change. Such results suggest that gains from TFP were input-driven rather than from a ‘best-practice’ approach such as improvements in operations or better resource allocation.

Productivity, technical and efficiency change in Singapore’s services sector, 2005 to 2008

The current study was motivated by statements made by the Economic Strategies Committee that Singapore’s recent productivity levels in services were well below countries such as the US, Japan and Hong Kong. Massive employment of foreign workers was cited as the reason for poor productivity levels. To shed more light on Singapore’s falling productivity, a nonparametric Malmquist productivity index was employed which provides measures of productivity change, technical change and efficiency change. The findings reveal that growth in Total Factor Productivity (TFP) was attributed to technical change with no improvement in efficiency change. Such results suggest that gains from TFP were input-driven rather than from a ‘best-practice’ approach such as improvements in operations or better resource allocation.

Change propagation analysis in complex technical systems

Understanding how and why changes propagate during engineering design is critical because most products and systems emerge from predecessors and not through clean sheet design. This paper applies change propagation analysis methods and extends prior reasoning through examination of a large data set from industry including 41,500 change requests, spanning 8 years during the design of a complex sensor system. Different methods are used to analyze the data and the results are compared to each other and evaluated in the context of previous findings. In particular the networks of connected parent, child and sibling changes are resolved over time and mapped to 46 subsystem areas. A normalized change propagation index (CPI) is then developed, showing the relative strength of each area on the absorber-multiplier spectrum between -1 and +1. Multipliers send out more changes than they receive and are good candidates for more focused change management. Another interesting finding is the quantitative confirmation of the "ripple" change pattern. Unlike the earlier prediction, however, it was found that the peak of cyclical change activity occurred late in the program driven by systems integration and functional testing. Patterns emerged from the data and offer clear implications for technical change management approaches in system design. Copyright © 2007 by ASME.

A tractable means of correcting sector level TFP calculations in the face of biased technological change.

The measurement of the impact of technical change has received significant attention within the economics literature. One popular method of quantifying the impact of technical change is the use of growth accounting index numbers. However, in a recent article Nelson and Pack (1999) criticise the use of such index numbers in situations where technical change is likely to be biased in favour of one or other inputs. In particular they criticise the common approach of applying observed cost shares, as proxies for partial output elasticities, to weight the change in quantities which they claim is only valid under Hicks neutrality. Recent advances in the measurement of product and factor biases of technical change developed by Balcombe et al (2000) provide a relatively straight-forward means of correcting product and factor shares in the face of biased technical progress. This paper demonstrates the correction of both revenue and cost shares used in the construction of a TFP index for UK agriculture over the period 1953 to 2000 using both revenue and cost function share equations appended with stochastic latent variables to capture the bias effect. Technical progress is shown to be biased between both individual input and output groups. Output and input quantity aggregates are then constructed using both observed and corrected share weights and the resulting TFPs are compared. There does appear to be some significant bias in TFP if the effect of biased technical progress is not taken into account when constructing the weights

Measuring productivity growth when technological change is biased - a new index and an application to UK agriculture

Productivity growth is conventionally measured by indices representing discreet approximations of the Divisia TFP index under the assumption that technological change is Hicks-neutral. When this assumption is violated, these indices are no longer meaningful because they conflate the effects of factor accumulation and technological change. We propose a way of adjusting the conventional TFP index that solves this problem. The method adopts a latent variable approach to the measurement of technical change biases that provides a simple means of correcting product and factor shares in the standard Tornqvist-Theil TFP index. An application to UK agriculture over the period 1953-2000 demonstrates that technical progress is strongly biased. The implications of that bias for productivity measurement are shown to be very large, with the conventional TFP index severely underestimating productivity growth. The result is explained primarily by the fact that technological change has favoured the rapidly accumulating factors against labour, the factor leaving the sector. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Implications of ernbodied technological change for development economics

Employing a embodied technologic change model in which the time decision of scrapping old vintages of capital and adopt newer one is endogenous we show that the elasticity of substitutions among capital and labor plays a key role in determining the optimum life span of capital. In particular, for the CD case the life span of capital does not depend on the relative price of it. The estimation of the model's long-run investment function shows, for a Panel data set consisting of 125 economies for 25 years, that the price elasticity of investment is lower than one; we rejected the CD specification. Our calibration for the US suggests 0.4 for the technical elasticity of substitution. In order to get a theoretical consistent concept of aggregate capital we derive the relative price profile for a shadow second-hand market for capital. The shape of the model's theoretical price curve reproduces the empírical estimation of it. \lVe plug the calibrate version of the long-run solution of the model to a cross-section of economies data set to get the implied TFP, that is, the part of the productivity which is not explained by the model. We show that the mo dei represent a good improvement, comparing to the standard neoc!assical growth model with CD production function and disembodied technical change, in accounting the world diversity in productivity. In addition the model describes the fact that a very poor economy can experience fast growth based on capital accumulation until the point of becoming a middle income economy; from this point on it has to rely on TFP increase in order to keep growing.

Patterns of technical progress in the Brazilian economy, 1952-2008

This article analyses the pattern of technical change in the Brazilian economy between 1952 and 2008. A Marx-biased pattern of labour-saving and capital-using change predominated in the period under study. Three phases in the dynamism of technical change can be distinguished, however. The first, from 1952 to 1973, was highly dynamic. In the second, from 1973 to 1991, this dynamism lessened. Lastly, between 1991 and 2008, the dynamism of technical change recovered slightly. The wage share held fairly steady throughout the period. The rate of profit dropped between 1952 and 1991 before rising slightly from 1991 to 2008. The net capital accumulation rate contracted after 1975 because of the decline in the rates of profit and investment. Between 2004 and 2008, the net capital accumulation rate increased.

Trade liberalisation and technical efficiency: Evidence from Bangladesh manufacturing industries

The paper investigates the effects of trade liberalisation on the technical efficiency of the Bangladesh manufacturing sector by estimating a combined stochastic frontier-inefficiency model using panel data for the period 197894 for 25 three-digit level industries. The results show that the overall technical efficiency of the manufacturing sector as well as the technical efficiencies of the majority of the individual industries has increased over time. The findings also clearly suggest that trade liberalisation, proxied by export orientation and capital deepening, has had significant impact on the reduction of the overall technical inefficiency. Similarly, the scale of operation and the proportion of non-production labour in total employment appear as important determinants of technical inefficiency. The evidence also indicates that both export-promoting and import-substituting industries have experienced rises in technical efficiencies over time. Besides, the results are suggestive of neutral technical change, although (at the 5 per cent level of significance) the empirical results indicate that there was no technical change in the manufacturing industries. Finally, the joint test based on the likelihood ratio (LR) test rejects the Cobb-Douglas production technology as description of the database given the specification of the translog production technology.

The impact of Islamic banking on the cost efficiency and productivity change of Malaysian commercial banks

This study employs stochastic frontier analysis to analyze Malaysian commercial banks during 1996-2002, and particularly focuses on determining the impact of Islamic banking on performance. We derive both net and gross efficiency estimates, thereby demonstrating that differences in operating characteristics explain much of the difference in costs between Malaysian banks. We also decompose productivity change into efficiency, technical, and scale change using a generalised Malmquist productivity index. On average, Malaysian banks experience moderate scale economies and annual productivity change of 2.68 percent, with the latter driven primarily by technical change, which has declined over time. Our gross efficiency estimates suggest that Islamic banking is associated with higher input requirements. However, our productivity estimates indicate that full-fledged Islamic banks have overcome some of these cost disadvantages with rapid technical change, although this is not the case for conventional banks operating Islamic windows. Merged banks are found to have higher input usage and lower productivity change, suggesting that bank mergers have not contributed positively to bank performance. Finally, our results suggest that while the East Asian financial crisis had a short-term cost-reducing effect in 1998, the crisis triggered a more lasting negative impact by increasing the volume of non-performing loans.