Determinants of Growth and Inflation in Southern Mediterranean Countries. MEDPRO Technical Report No. 10/March 2012

Despite significant economic reforms in many Southern Mediterranean EU neighbour countries, their growth performance has on average been subdued. This study analyses the differences in growth performance and macroeconomic stability across Mediterranean countries, to draw lessons for the future. The main findings are that Southern Mediterranean countries should benefit from closer ties with the EU that result in higher levels of trade and FDI inflows, once the turbulence of the ‘Arab Spring’ is resolved, and from the development of financial markets and infrastructure. They will also benefit in keeping inflation under control, which will depend in great part on their ability to maintain fiscal discipline and sustainable current accounts. One of the main challenges for the region will be to implement structural reforms that can help them absorb a large pool of unemployed without creating upward risks to inflation.

Do the Genetic or Environmental Determinants of Anxiety and Depression Change with Age? A Longitudinal Study of Australian Twins

Because the determinants of anxiety and depression in late adolescence and early adulthood may differ from those in later life, we investigated the temporal stability and magnitude of genetic and environmental correlates of symptoms of anxiety and depression across the life span. Data were collected from a population-based Australian sample of 4364 complete twin pairs and 777 singletons aged 20 to 96 years who were followed-up over three studies between 1980 and 1996. Each study contained the 14-item self-report DSSI/sAD scale which was used to measure recently experienced symptoms of anxiety and depression. Symptom scores were then divided and assigned to age intervals according to each subject's age at time of participation. We fitted genetic simplex models to take into account the longitudinal nature of the data. For male anxiety and depression, the best fitting simplex models comprised a single genetic innovation at age 20 which was transmitted, and explained genetic variation in anxiety and depression at ages 30, 40, 50 and 60. Most of the lifetime genetic variation in female anxiety and depression could also be explained by innovations at age 20 which were transmitted to all other ages; however, there were also smaller age-dependent genetic innovations at 30 for anxiety and at 40 and 70 for depression. Although the genetic determinants of anxiety and depression appear relatively stable across the life-span for males and females, there is some evidence to support additional mid-life and late age gene action in females for depression. The fact that mid-life onset for anxiety occurs one decade before depression is also consistent with a causal relationship (anxiety leading to depression) between these conditions. These findings have significance for large scale depression prevention projects.

Determinants of entry and exit in the foreign owned sector of UK manufacturing

This paper examines the extent to which foreign entry and exit in the UK is related to domestic industry characteristics. The units of analysis are firm numbers, and thus entry and exit at the industry level are treated as being generated by Poisson processes. This therefore uses quasimaximum likelihood estimation, to estimate entry and exit functions simultaneously. The results demonstrate that foreign entry is attracted by industry level profitability and performance, but that firm specific 'ownership' advantages are also important. The results also demonstrate that inward investors that are motivated by the desire to exploit firm-specific assets, are unlikely to be more transient than domestic firms. This however, cannot be said of those foreign entrants who are attracted to the UK by location advantage or investment incentives.

A horizontális és vertikális ágazaton belüli agrárkereskedelem meghatározó tényezői az EU új tagországaiban (Determinants of horizontal and vertical intra-industry agri-food trade in the new EU member-states)

Az ágazaton belüli kereskedelem egyre komolyabb szerepet tölt be a nemzetközi kereskedelemben, mind ez idáig azonban kevés mezőgazdasági témájú elemzés készült e témában. A cikk célja a horizontális és vertikális ágazaton belüli agrárkereskedelem meghatározó tényezőinek azonosítása az új tagországok és az EU–27 közötti kereskedelemben 1999–2010 között. Ehhez a szerző statikus és dinamikus panelmódszereket alkalmaz különböző specifikációkkal. Eredményei szerint a tényezőellátottság a horizontális ágazaton belüli kereskedelemmel negatív, míg a vertikálissal pozitív kapcsolatban áll. Az országok mérete az ágazaton belüli kereskedelem mindkét oldalával pozitívan, míg a távolság negatívan korrelál. Az eredmények azt is kimutatják, hogy az ágazaton belüli kereskedelem mértéke nagyobb, ha egy új tagország a kelet-közép-európai régióba exportál, és az is világossá vált, hogy az EU-csatlakozás pozitívan hatott az ágazaton belüli kereskedelemre, jelezve a gazdasági integráció kereskedelemösztönző szerepét. _____ Intra-industry trade (IIT) has a growing role in international trade, although the number of papers on its agricultural aspects is limited. This article identifies the determinants of horizontal and vertical intra-industry agri-food trade between new member-states (NMS) and the EU27 in 1999-2010, by applying to panel data static and dynamic models with different specifications. The results show that factor endowments are negatively related to agri-food horizontal intra-industry trade (HIIT), but positively to vertical intra-industry trade (VIIT). Economic size is positively and significantly related to both, while distance and IIT are found to be negatively related. This also suggests that HIIT and VIIT are greater if an NMS exports agri-food products to another NMS, while EU accession has had positive and significant impacts on both HIIT and VIIT, which suggests that economic integration fosters IIT.

Country-specific determinants of horizontal and vertical intra-industry agri-food trade: the case of Bulgaria and Romania

The article analyses patterns and country-specific determinants of agri-food trade of Bulgaria and Romania with the European Union. As literature focusing on agricultural aspects of the topic is limited, the paper seeks to contribute to the literature by providing up to date results and suggestions as well as by identifying the determinants of horizontal and vertical intra-industry trade of the Bulgaria and Romania after EU accession. Results suggest that intra-industry agri-food trade is mainly of vertical nature, referring to trade of different quality products. Results verify that determinants of horizontal and vertical IIT are similar and suggest that economic size and FDI are positively, while factor endowments and distance are negatively related to both sides of IIT. Results are mainly in line with the majority of empirical literature in the field.

Determinants of confidence and their effect on epistemic judgments: Implications for auditor calibration bias

Auditor decisions regarding the causes of accounting misstatements can have an audit effectiveness and efficiency. Specifically, overconfidence in one's decision can lead to an ineffective audit, whereas underconfidence in one's decision can lead to an inefficient audit. This dissertation explored the implications of providing various types of information cues to decision-makers regarding an Analytical Procedure task and investigated the relationship between different types of evidence cues (confirming, disconfirming, redundant or non-redundant) and the reduction in calibration bias. Information was collected using a laboratory experiment, from 45 accounting students participants. Research questions were analyzed using a 2 x 2 x 2 between-subject and within-subject analysis of covariance (ANCOVA). ^ Results indicated that presenting subjects with information cues dissimilar to the choice they made is an effective intervention in reducing the common overconfidence found in decision-making. In addition, other information characteristics, specifically non-redundant information can help in reducing a decision-maker's overconfidence/calibration bias for difficulty (compared to easy) decision-tasks. ^

Social determinants of fruit and vegetable intake and validation of Pro-Children Eating Habits Questionnaire for 3rd and 5th grade children

BACKGROUND: The Pro Children Eating Habits Questionnaire has been evaluated as a valid and reliable tool in Europe to measure determinants of fruit and vegetable intake for children; however, it has not been validation for United States populations. The purpose of this study was to (1) assess the reliability and discrimination validity of fruit and vegetable correlates for the Pro Children Eating Habits Questionnaire; (2) investigate the predictive validity of determinants of fruit and vegetable consumption for multi-ethnic elementary school children; and, (3) to assess the association of social determinants with fruit and vegetable consumption. METHODS: One hundred and thirty elementary school students from the 3rd and 5th grades completed this cross-sectional study. RESULTS: Fruit and vegetable determinants, had satisfactory internal consistencies. No differences were found between the test and the retest for the individual questions with the exception of the question for mean perceived vegetable intake. The discriminatory validity indicated the questionnaire could show differences across grade and gender levels for barriers of fruit and vegetables but not for other factors. Grade together with gender explained barriers to eating fruit and vegetables. Greater availability of fruit in the home and school was associated with higher frequency of consumption. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study indicate the Pro-Children Eating Habits Questionnaire may be a reliable and valid tool for assessing fruit and vegetable consumption of children in the United States.

Determinants of Waterpipe and Cigarette Smoking Progression among a School Based Sample of Adolescents in Irbid, Jordan: A Three-Year Longitudinal Study (2008-2011)

The prevalence of waterpipe smoking exceeds that of cigarettes among adolescents in the Middle East where waterpipe is believed as less harmful, less addictive and can be a safer alternative to cigarettes. This dissertation tested the gateway hypothesis that waterpipe can provide a bridge to initiate cigarette smoking, identified the predictors of cigarette smoking progression, and identified predictors of waterpipe smoking progression among a school-based sample of Jordanian adolescents (mean age ± SD) (12.7 ±0.61) years at baseline. Data for this research have been drawn from Irbid Longitudinal Study of smoking behavior, Jordan (2008-2011). The grouped-time survival analysis showed that waterpipe smoking was associated with a higher risk of cigarette smoking initiation compared to never smokers (P < 0.001) and this association was dose dependent (P < 0.001). Predictors of cigarette smoking progression were peer smoking and attending public schools for boys, siblings’ smoking for girls, and the urge to smoke for both genders. Predictors of waterpipe smoking progression were enrollment in public schools, frequent physical activity, and low refusal self-efficacy for boys, ever smoking cigarettes, friends’ and siblings’ waterpipe smoking for girls. Awareness of harms of waterpipe among boys and seeing warning labels on the tobacco packs by girls were protective against waterpipe smoking progression. In Conclusion, waterpipe can serve as a gateway to cigarette smoking initiation among adolescents. Waterpipe and cigarette smoking progressions among initiators were solely family-related among girls, and mainly peer-related among boys. The unique gender differences for both cigarette and waterpipe smoking among Jordanian adolescents in Irbid call for cultural and gender-specific smoking prevention interventions to prevent the progression of smoking among initiators.

Determinants of internal and external R&D offshoring: Evidence from Spanish firms

This paper analyzes the determinants of R&D offshoring of Spanish firms using information from the Panel of Technological Innovation. We find that being an exporter, international technological cooperation, continuous R&D engagement, applying for patents, being a for-eign subsidiary, and firm size are factors that positively affect the decision to offshore R&D. In addition, we find that a lack of financing is an obstacle relatively more important for inde-pendent firms than for firms that belong to business groups. For these latter, we also obtain that the factors that influence the decision to offshore R&D differ depending on whether the firm purchases the R&D services within the group or through the market: a higher degree of importance assigned to internal sources of information for innovation as compared to mar-ket sources increases (decreases) the probability of R&D offshoring only through the group (market).

Making life better: Monitoring the wider social determinants of health and well being - key indicators 2015

This report monitors progress against the key indicators of Northern Ireland’s public health strategy ‘Making Life Better’ launched by the Department of Health, Social Services & Public Safety (DHSSPS) in 2014. In addition to presenting the revised baseline positions for each of the key indicators of the framework, the report also monitors progress against each indicator by comparing the latest position with the baseline.

A systematic review of methods to assess intake of fruits and vegetables among healthy European adults and children: a DEDIPAC (DEterminants of DIet and Physical Activity) study

Evidence suggests that health benefits are associated with consuming recommended amounts of fruits and vegetables (F&V), yet standardised assessment methods to measure F&V intake are lacking. The current review aims to identify methods to assess F&V intake among children and adults in pan-European studies and inform the development of the DEDIPAC (DEterminants of DIet and Physical Activity) toolbox of methods suitable for use in future European studies. A literature search was conducted using three electronic databases and by hand-searching reference lists. English-language studies of any design which assessed F&V intake were included in the review. Studies involving two or more European countries were included in the review. Healthy, free-living children or adults. The review identified fifty-one pan-European studies which assessed F&V intake. The FFQ was the most commonly used (n 42), followed by 24 h recall (n 11) and diet records/diet history (n 7). Differences existed between the identified methods; for example, the number of F&V items on the FFQ and whether potatoes/legumes were classified as vegetables. In total, eight validated instruments were identified which assessed F&V intake among adults, adolescents or children. The current review indicates that an agreed classification of F&V is needed in order to standardise intake data more effectively between European countries. Validated methods used in pan-European populations encompassing a range of European regions were identified. These methods should be considered for use by future studies focused on evaluating intake of F&V.

A systematic review of methods to assess intake of sugar-sweetened beverages among healthy European adults and children: a DEDIPAC (DEterminants of DIet and Physical Activity) study

Research indicates that intake of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB) may be associated with negative health consequences. However, differences between assessment methods can affect the comparability of intake data across studies. The current review aimed to identify methods used to assess SSB intake among children and adults in pan-European studies and to inform the development of the DEDIPAC (DEterminants of DIet and Physical Activity) toolbox of methods suitable for use in future European studies. A literature search was conducted using three electronic databases and by hand-searching reference lists. English-language studies of any design which assessed SSB consumption were included in the review. Studies involving two or more European countries were included in the review. Healthy, free-living children and adults. The review identified twenty-three pan-European studies which assessed intake of SSB. The FFQ was the most commonly used (n 24), followed by the 24 h recall (n 6) and diet records (n 1). There were several differences between the identified FFQ, including the definition of SSB used. In total, seven instruments that were tested for validity were selected as potentially suitable to assess SSB intake among adults (n 1), adolescents (n 3) and children (n 3). The current review highlights the need for instruments to use an agreed definition of SSB. Methods that were tested for validity and used in pan-European populations encompassing a range of countries were identified. These methods should be considered for use by future studies focused on evaluating consumption of SSB.

Application of a Bivariate Probit Model to Investigate the Intended Evacuation from Hurricane

With evidence of increasing hurricane risks in Georgia Coastal Area (GCA) and Virginia in the U.S. Southeast and elsewhere, understanding intended evacuation behavior is becoming more and more important for community planners. My research investigates intended evacuation behavior due to hurricane risks, a behavioral survey of the six counties in GCA under the direction of two social scientists with extensive experience in survey research related to citizen and household response to emergencies and disasters. Respondents gave answers whether they would evacuate under both voluntary and mandatory evacuation orders. Bivariate probit models are used to investigate the subjective belief structure of whether or not the respondents are concerned about the hurricane, and the intended probability of evacuating as a function of risk perception, and a lot of demographic and socioeconomic variables (e.g., gender, military, age, length of residence, owning vehicles).

The use of ZIP and CART to model cryptosporidiosis in relation to climatic variables

This research assesses the potential impact of weekly weather variability on the incidence of cryptosporidiosis disease using time series zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) and classification and regression tree (CART) models. Data on weather variables, notified cryptosporidiosis cases and population size in Brisbane were supplied by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Queensland Department of Health, and Australian Bureau of Statistics, respectively. Both time series ZIP and CART models show a clear association between weather variables (maximum temperature, relative humidity, rainfall and wind speed) and cryptosporidiosis disease. The time series CART models indicated that, when weekly maximum temperature exceeded 31°C and relative humidity was less than 63%, the relative risk of cryptosporidiosis rose by 13.64 (expected morbidity: 39.4; 95% confidence interval: 30.9–47.9). These findings may have applications as a decision support tool in planning disease control and risk management programs for cryptosporidiosis disease.

Linear and nonlinear optical properties of cumulenes and polyenynes: a model exact study

Model exact static and frequency-dependent polarizabilities, static second hyperpolarizabilities and THG coefficents of cumulenes and polyenynes, calculated within the correlated Pariser-Parr-Pople (PPP) model defined over the pi-framework are reported and compared with the results for the polyenes. It is found that for the same chain length, the polarizabilities and THG coefficients of the cumulenes are largest and those of the polyenynes smallest with the polyenes having an intermediate value. The optical gap of the infinite cumulene is lowest (0.75 eV) and is associated with a low transition dipole moment for an excitation involving transfer of an electron between the two orthogonal conjugated pi-systems. The polyenynes have the largest optical gap (4.37 eV), with the magnitude being nearly independent of the chain length. This excitation involves charge transfer between the conjugated bonds in the terminal triple bond. Chain length and frequency dependence of alpha(ij) and gamma(ijkl) of these systems are also reported. The effect of a heteroatom on the polarizability and THG coefficients of acetylenic systems is also reported. It has been found that the presence of the heteroatom reduces the polarizability and THG coefficients of these systems, an effect opposite to that found in the polyenes and cyanine dyes. This result has been associated with the different nature of the charge transfer in the acetylenic systems.