Evaluation of the Hosmer -Lemeshow global goodness -of-fit statistic for mixed variable logistic regression models

The performance of the Hosmer-Lemeshow global goodness-of-fit statistic for logistic regression models was explored in a wide variety of conditions not previously fully investigated. Computer simulations, each consisting of 500 regression models, were run to assess the statistic in 23 different situations. The items which varied among the situations included the number of observations used in each regression, the number of covariates, the degree of dependence among the covariates, the combinations of continuous and discrete variables, and the generation of the values of the dependent variable for model fit or lack of fit.^ The study found that the $\rm\ C$g* statistic was adequate in tests of significance for most situations. However, when testing data which deviate from a logistic model, the statistic has low power to detect such deviation. Although grouping of the estimated probabilities into quantiles from 8 to 30 was studied, the deciles of risk approach was generally sufficient. Subdividing the estimated probabilities into more than 10 quantiles when there are many covariates in the model is not necessary, despite theoretical reasons which suggest otherwise. Because it does not follow a X$\sp2$ distribution, the statistic is not recommended for use in models containing only categorical variables with a limited number of covariate patterns.^ The statistic performed adequately when there were at least 10 observations per quantile. Large numbers of observations per quantile did not lead to incorrect conclusions that the model did not fit the data when it actually did. However, the statistic failed to detect lack of fit when it existed and should be supplemented with further tests for the influence of individual observations. Careful examination of the parameter estimates is also essential since the statistic did not perform as desired when there was moderate to severe collinearity among covariates.^ Two methods studied for handling tied values of the estimated probabilities made only a slight difference in conclusions about model fit. Neither method split observations with identical probabilities into different quantiles. Approaches which create equal size groups by separating ties should be avoided. ^

Coral-algae metabolism and diurnal changes in the CO2-carbonate system of bulk sea water

Precise measurements were conducted in continuous flow seawater mesocosms located in full sunlight that compared metabolic response of coral, coral-macroalgae and macroalgae systems over a diurnal cycle. Irradiance controlled net photosynthesis (Pnet), which in turn drove net calcification (Gnet), and altered pH. Pnet exerted the dominant control on [CO3]2- and aragonite saturation state (Omega arag) over the diel cycle. Dark calcification rate decreased after sunset, reaching zero near midnight followed by an increasing rate that peaked at 03:00 h. Changes in Omega arag and pH lagged behind Gnet throughout the daily cycle by two or more hours. The flux rate Pnet was the primary driver of calcification. Daytime coral metabolism rapidly removes dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) from the bulk seawater and photosynthesis provides the energy that drives Gnet while increasing the bulk water pH. These relationships result in a correlation between Gnet and Omega arag, with Omega arag as the dependent variable. High rates of H+ efflux continued for several hours following mid-day peak Gnet suggesting that corals have difficulty in shedding waste protons as described by the Proton Flux Hypothesis. DIC flux (uptake) followed Pnet and Gnet and dropped off rapidly following peak Pnet and peak Gnet indicating that corals can cope more effectively with the problem of limited DIC supply compared to the problem of eliminating H+. Over a 24 h period the plot of total alkalinity (AT) versus DIC as well as the plot of Gnet versus Omega arag revealed a circular hysteresis pattern over the diel cycle in the coral and coral-algae mesocosms, but not the macroalgae mesocosm. Presence of macroalgae did not change Gnet of the corals, but altered the relationship between Omega arag and Gnet. Predictive models of how future global changes will effect coral growth that are based on oceanic Omega arag must include the influence of future localized Pnet on Gnet and changes in rate of reef carbonate dissolution. The correlation between Omega arag and Gnet over the diel cycle is simply the response of the CO2-carbonate system to increased pH as photosynthesis shifts the equilibria and increases the [CO3]2- relative to the other DIC components of [HCO3]- and [CO2]. Therefore Omega arag closely tracked pH as an effect of changes in Pnet, which also drove changes in Gnet. Measurements of DIC flux and H+ flux are far more useful than concentrations in describing coral metabolism dynamics. Coral reefs are systems that exist in constant disequilibrium with the water column.

An illustration of variable precision rough sets model:an analysis of the findings of the UK Monopolies and Mergers Commission

This paper introduces a new technique in the investigation of limited-dependent variable models. This paper illustrates that variable precision rough set theory (VPRS), allied with the use of a modern method of classification, or discretisation of data, can out-perform the more standard approaches that are employed in economics, such as a probit model. These approaches and certain inductive decision tree methods are compared (through a Monte Carlo simulation approach) in the analysis of the decisions reached by the UK Monopolies and Mergers Committee. We show that, particularly in small samples, the VPRS model can improve on more traditional models, both in-sample, and particularly in out-of-sample prediction. A similar improvement in out-of-sample prediction over the decision tree methods is also shown.

The goal-dependent automaticity of drinking habits

In recent treatments of habitual social behaviour, habits are conceptualized as a form of goal-directed automatic behaviour that are mentally represented as goal-action links. Three experiments tested this conceptualization in the context of students' drinking (alcohol consumption)habits. Participants were randomly assigned to conditions where either a goal related to drinking behaviour (socializing) was activated, or an unrelated goal was activated. In addition, participants' drinking habits were measured. The dependent variable in Experiments 1 and 2 was readiness to drink, operationalized by speed of responding to the action concept 'drinking' in a verb verification task. Experiment 3 used the uptake of a voucher to measure drinking behaviour. Findings supported the view that when habits are established, simply activating a goal related to the focal behaviour automatically elicits that behaviour. These findings are consistent with a goal-dependent conception of habit. Possibilities for interventions designed to attenuate undesirable habitual behaviours are considered.

The use of Poisson regression in the sociological study of suicide

This paper explains how Poisson regression can be used in studies in which the dependent variable describes the number of occurrences of some rare event such as suicide. After pointing out why ordinary linear regression is inappropriate for treating dependent variables of this sort, we go on to present the basic Poisson regression model and show how it fits in the broad class of generalized linear models. Then we turn to discussing a major problem of Poisson regression known as overdispersion and suggest possible solutions, including the correction of standard errors and negative binomial regression. The paper ends with a detailed empirical example, drawn from our own research on suicide.

The effects of the outdoor experiential ropes course on perceived team performance

The purpose of this quasi-experimental study was to explore the perceived effects of the Ropes Course on the performance of intact work teams. The dependent variable, team performance, was measured by the Team Performance Assessment, a 20 question inventory. The Ropes Course, the independent variable, was an outdoor experiential training program presently marketed as a highly effective team building training program. Issues the team addressed in the highly emotional and physical environment were purported to transfer back to the work environment and act as a catalyst for change The Ropes Course in this study consisted of a day long series of outdoor mental, emotional and physical exercises addressing the issues of goal-setting, role expectations, accountability, trust, respect, communication, problem-solving and decision-making. The 68 subjects, 37 in the treatment group and 31 in the control were employees of a large international financial institution. They were not chosen by random selection. The work teams' managers recognized a need to improve team morale, performance and functioning due to corporate reengineering and downsizing resulting in team members' job losses. Control teams were partially matched to the treatment teams on the basis of professional composition and similar job descriptions. The pretest of the Team Performance Assessment was given the morning of the Ropes Course treatment and the posttest was given three to five weeks later. The control teams received the pretests and posttests at about the same time intervals at their work location but received no Ropes Course treatment. The treatment teams' scores and the control teams' scores were statistically compared using the Multivariate Analysis of Variance (MANOVA) and the Multivariate Analysis of Covariance (MANCOVA) at the .05 level of significance. The statistical analysis revealed a significant difference between the control and experimental teams after the team building Ropes Course training as measured by the Team Performance Assessment (Gilbert, 1996). ^

Risk and resilience factors associated with delinquent behavior among African -American adolescent males

Juvenile crime is a social problem of increasing concern to many citizens in the United States. In 2000, there were an estimated 2.4 million juvenile arrests for a variety of crimes ranging from misdemeanors to violent felony offenses. African American males are disproportionately represented among juvenile offenders in the United States. In 2000, black youth were approximately 16% of the U.S. population between the ages of 10–17; however, they accounted for 42% of juvenile arrests for violent crime. ^ This study explored putative factors associated with juvenile offending among a sample of African American adolescent males. The independent variables in this study were academic achievement, religiosity, parenting styles and discrimination. The dependent variables were delinquent behavior and arrest. The data used in this study were from a larger NIDA funded longitudinal study that included approximately 425 African American youths. The data collection method involved structured interviews and questionnaires. The participants for the original study were selected via random sampling from all students attending middle school in Miami-Dade County. The study examined the hypotheses that African American males retrospectively reporting (a) high academic achievement, (b) high religiosity, (c) authoritarian parenting and (d) low perceptions of discrimination are less likely to be involved in delinquent behavior and are also less likely to be arrested. ^ Results indicated that among African American adolescent males, delinquent behavior had a significant relationship (p < .05) with academic achievement, perceived discrimination and the interaction between perceived discrimination and experienced discrimination. Arrest was significantly related to academic achievement (p < .001), religious perception (p < .05), and church attendance (p < 05). Neither dependent variable was significantly related to parenting styles. ^ The findings indicated that experimental studies are needed to clarify cause and effect relationship among the variables associated with juvenile offending among African American males, which may differ from those associated with juvenile offending among other groups. ^

Utilizing Traditional Cognitive Measures of Academic Preparation to Predict First-Year Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) Majors' Success in Math and Science Courses

For the past several years, U.S. colleges and universities have faced increased pressure to improve retention and graduation rates. At the same time, educational institutions have placed a greater emphasis on the importance of enrolling more students in STEM (science, technology, engineering and mathematics) programs and producing more STEM graduates. The resulting problem faced by educators involves finding new ways to support the success of STEM majors, regardless of their pre-college academic preparation. The purpose of my research study involved utilizing first-year STEM majors’ math SAT scores, unweighted high school GPA, math placement test scores, and the highest level of math taken in high school to develop models for predicting those who were likely to pass their first math and science courses. In doing so, the study aimed to provide a strategy to address the challenge of improving the passing rates of those first-year students attempting STEM-related courses. The study sample included 1018 first-year STEM majors who had entered the same large, public, urban, Hispanic-serving, research university in the Southeastern U.S. between 2010 and 2012. The research design involved the use of hierarchical logistic regression to determine the significance of utilizing the four independent variables to develop models for predicting success in math and science. The resulting data indicated that the overall model of predictors (which included all four predictor variables) was statistically significant for predicting those students who passed their first math course and for predicting those students who passed their first science course. Individually, all four predictor variables were found to be statistically significant for predicting those who had passed math, with the unweighted high school GPA and the highest math taken in high school accounting for the largest amount of unique variance. Those two variables also improved the regression model’s percentage of correctly predicting that dependent variable. The only variable that was found to be statistically significant for predicting those who had passed science was the students’ unweighted high school GPA. Overall, the results of my study have been offered as my contribution to the literature on predicting first-year student success, especially within the STEM disciplines.

Företags potentiella manipulation av tillväxttakt i goodwillnedskrivningstestet : En kvantitativ studie av svenska och finska börsnoterade företag

Bakgrund och problem: I och med den nya standarden IAS 36 ska företagen göra uppskattningar angående den långsiktiga tillväxttakten i goodwillnedskrivningstestet. Detta innebär en möjlighet att manipulera tillväxttakten för att på så vis undvika eller framkalla nedskrivning av goodwill. Problemformulering: Hur påverkar utvalda variabler företags potentiella manipulation av angiven tillväxttakt? Syfte: Syftet med studien är att bidra med förklaringar till vad som påverkar att företag redovisar för höga respektive för låga tillväxttakter i goodwillnedskrivningstestet. Metod: Denna studie bygger på en kvantitativ metod där urvalet består av samtliga svenska och finska börsnoterade företag med redovisad goodwill. Utifrån existerade kunskap formuleras fyra hypoteser som testas mot empirin. Resultat och slutsats: Resultatet av denna studie visar inga signifikanta samband mellan den beroende variabeln manipulation och de oberoende variablerna storlek, skuldsättningsgrad, bransch och redovisningstillsyn. Den deskriptiva statistiken visar att i stort sett hälften av företagen manipulerar tillväxttakten.

The importance of patient involvement in stroke rehabilitation

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the perceived needs for health services by persons with stroke within the first year after rehabilitation, and associations between perceived impact of stroke, involvement in decisions regarding care/treatment, and having health services needs met. METHOD: Data was collected, through a mail survey, from patients with stroke who were admitted to a university hospital in 2012 and had received rehabilitation after discharge from the stroke unit. The rehabilitation lasted an average of 2 to 4.6 months. The Stroke Survivor Needs Survey Questionnaire was used to assess the participants' perceptions of involvement in decisions on care or treatment and needs for health services in 11 problem areas: mobility, falls, incontinence, pain, fatigue, emotion, concentration, memory, speaking, reading, and sight. The perceived impact of stroke in eight areas was assessed using the Stroke Impact Scale (SIS) 3.0. Eleven logistic regression models were created to explore associations between having health services needs met in each problem area respectively (dependent variable) and the independent variables. In all models the independent variables were: age, sex, SIS domain corresponding to the dependent variable, or stroke severity in cases when no corresponding SIS domain was identified, and involvement in decisions on care and treatment. RESULTS: The 63 participants who returned the questionnaires had a mean age of 72 years, 33 were male and 30 were female. Eighty percent had suffered a mild stroke. The number of participants who reported problems varied between 51 (80%, mobility) and 24 (38%, sight). Involvement in decisions on care and treatment was found to be associated with having health services needs met in six problem areas: falls, fatigue, emotion, memory, speaking, and reading. CONCLUSIONS: The results highlight the importance of involving patients in making decisions on stroke rehabilitation, as it appears to be associated with meeting their health services needs.

Prevalence Of Urinary Incontinence And Its Association With Multimorbidity In Women Aged 50 Years Or Older: A Population-based Study.

To evaluate the prevalence and associated risk factors for urinary incontinence, as well as its association with multimorbidity among Brazilian women aged 50 or over. This was a secondary analysis of a cross-sectional population-based study including 622 women 50 years or older, conducted in the city of Campinas-SP-Brazil. The dependent variable was Urinary Incontinence (UI), defined as any complaint of urine loss. The independent variables were sociodemographic data, health-related habits, self-perception of health and functional capacity evaluation. Statistical analysis was carried out using the Chi-square test and Poisson regression. The mean age of the women was 64. UI was prevalent in 52.3% of these women: Mixed UI (26.6%), Urge UI (13.2%) and Stress UI (12.4%). Factors associated with a higher prevalence of UI were hypertension (OR 1.21, CI 1:01-1:47, P = 0.004), osteoarthritis (OR 1.24, CI 1:03-1:50, P = 0.022), physical activity ≥3 days/week (OR 1.21, CI 1:01-1:44, P = 0.039), BMI ≥ 25 at the time of the interview (OR 1.25, CI 1:04-1:49, P = 0.018), negative self-perception of health (OR 1.23, CI 1:06-1:44 P = 0.007) and limitations in daily living activities (PR 1:56 CI 1:16-2:10, P = 0.004). The prevalence of UI was high. Mixed incontinence was the most frequent type of UI. Many associated factors can be prevented or improved. Thus, health policies targeted at these combined factors could reduce their prevalence rate and possibly decrease the prevalence of UI. Neurourol. Urodynam. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Variables Associated With The Performance Of Centers For Dental Specialties In Brazil.

The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of the Centers for Dental Specialties (CDS) in the country and associations with sociodemographic indicators of the municipalities, structural variables of services and primary health care organization in the years 2004-2009. The study used secondary data from procedures performed in the CDS to the specialties of periodontics, endodontics, surgery and primary care. Bivariate analysis by χ2 test was used to test the association between the dependent variable (performance of the CDS) with the independents. Then, Poisson regression analysis was performed. With regard to the overall achievement of targets, it was observed that the majority of CDS (69.25%) performance was considered poor/regular. The independent factors associated with poor/regular performance of CDS were: municipalities belonging to the Northeast, South and Southeast regions, with lower Human Development Index (HDI), lower population density, and reduced time to deployment. HDI and population density are important for the performance of the CDS in Brazil. Similarly, the peculiarities related to less populated areas as well as regional location and time of service implementation CDS should be taken into account in the planning of these services.

Factors Associated With The Age Of The Onset Of Diabetes In Women Aged 50 years Or More: A Population-based Study.

Investigate factors associated with the onset of diabetes in women aged more than 49 years. Cross-sectional, population-based study using self-reports with 622 women. The dependent variable was the age of occurrence of diabetes using the life table method. Cox multiple regression models were adjusted to analyse the onset of diabetes according to predictor variables. Sociodemographic, clinical and behavioural factors were evaluated. Of the 622 women interviewed, 22.7% had diabetes. The mean age at onset was 56 years. The factors associated with the age of occurrence of diabetes were self-rated health (very good, good) (coefficient=-0.792; SE of the coefficient=0.215; p=0.0001), more than two individuals living in the household (coefficient=0.656, SE of the coefficient=0.223; p=0.003), and body mass index (BMI) (kg/m(2)) at 20-30 years of age (coefficient= 0.056, SE of the coefficient=0.023; p=0.014). Self-rated health considered good or very good was associated with a higher rate of survival without diabetes. Sharing a home with two or more other people and a weight increase at 20-30 years of age was associated with the onset of type 2 diabetes.

[need For Orthodontic Treatment Among Brazilian Adolescents: Evaluation Based On Public Health].

To identify the prevalence and the severity of malocclusions and to analyze factors associated with the need for orthodontic treatment of Brazilian adolescents. This exploratory, cross-sectional study was carried out based on secondary data from the national epidemiological survey on oral health in Brazil (2002-2003). Socio-demographic conditions, self-perception, and the existence and degree of malocclusion, using the Dental Aesthetic Index, were evaluated in 16,833 adolescent Brazilians selected by probabilistic sample by conglomerates. The dependent variable - need orthodontic treatment - was estimated from the severity of malocclusion. The magnitude and direction of the association in bivariate and multivariate analyzes from a Robust Poisson regression was estimated RESULTS: The majority of the adolescents needed orthodontic treatment (53.2%). In the multivariate analysis, the prevalence of the need for orthodontic treatment was larger among females, non-whites, those that perceived a need for treatment, and those that perceived their appearance as normal, bad, or very bad. The need for orthodontic treatment was smaller among those that lived in the Northeast and Central West macro-regions compared to those living in Southeast Brazil and it was also smaller among those that perceived their chewing to be normal or their oral health to be bad or very bad. There was a high prevalence of orthodontic treatment need among adolescents in Brazil and this need was associated with demographic and subjective issues. The high prevalence of orthodontic needs in adolescents is a challenge to the goals of Brazil's universal public health system.

Determinação da difusividade efetiva de raiz de chicória

Inulin is a fructooligosacharide found in diverse agricultural products, amongst them garlic, banana, Jerusalem artichoke and chicory root. Inulin generally is used in developed countries, as a substitute of sugar and/or fat due to its characteristics of fitting as functional and dietary food. Chicory root is usually used as source and raw material for commercial extration of inulin. The experiments consisted on drying sliced chicory roots based on a factorial experimental design in a convective dryer whose alows the air to pass perpendicularly through the tray. Effective diffusivity (dependent variable) has been determined for each experimental combination of independent variables (air temperature and velocity). The data curves have been fitted by the solution of the second Fick law and Page's model. Effective difusivity varied from 3.51 x 10-10 m² s-1 to 1.036 x 10-10 m² s-1. It is concluded that, for the range of studied values, air temperature is the only statistically significant variable. So, a first order mathematical model was obtained, representing effective diffusivity behavior as function of air temperature. The best drying condition was correspondent to the trial using the highest drying air temperature.