A multi-regional view on aging societies accounting for the existence of non-tradable goods

This thesis assesses the question, whether accounting for non-tradable goods sectors in a calibrated Auerbach-Kotlikoff multi-regional overlapping-generations-model significantly affects this model’s results when simulating the economic impact of demographic change. Non-tradable goods constitute a major part of up to 80 percent of GDP of modern economies. At the same time, multi-regional overlapping-generations-models presented by literature on demographic change so far ignored their existence and counterfactually assumed perfect tradability between model regions. Moreover, this thesis introduces the assumption of an increasing preference share for non-tradable goods of old generations. This fact-based as-sumption is also not part of models in relevant literature. rnThese obvious simplifications of common models vis-à-vis reality notwithstanding, this thesis concludes that differences in results between a model featuring non-tradable goods and a common model with perfect tradability are very small. In other words, the common simplifi-cation of ignoring non-tradable goods is unlikely to lead to significant distortions in model results. rnIn order to ensure that differences in results between the ‘new’ model, featuring both non-tradable and tradable goods, and the common model solely reflect deviations due to the more realistic structure of the ‘new’ model, both models are calibrated to match exactly the same benchmark data and thus do not show deviations in their respective baseline steady states.rnA variation analysis performed in this thesis suggests that differences between the common model and a model with non-tradable goods can theoretically be large, but only if the bench-mark tradable goods sector is assumed to be unrealistically small.rnFinally, this thesis analyzes potential real exchange rate effects of demographic change, which could occur due to regional price differences of non-tradable goods. However, results show that shifts in real exchange rate based on these price differences are negligible.rn

Cancer, a disease of aging (part 1) - trends in older adult cancer mortality in Switzerland 1991-2008

It is crucial for aging societies to evaluate trends in cancer mortality rates of older adults. This study examined socio-demographic and regional characteristics specifically focused on the cancer mortality experience of older adults in Switzerland.

Electrocardiographic PR interval and adverse outcomes in older adults: the Health, Aging, and Body Composition study

BACKGROUND The electrocardiographic PR interval increases with aging, differs by race, and is associated with atrial fibrillation (AF), pacemaker implantation, and all-cause mortality. We sought to determine the associations between PR interval and heart failure, AF, and mortality in a biracial cohort of older adults. METHODS AND RESULTS The Health, Aging, and Body Composition (Health ABC) Study is a prospective, biracial cohort. We used multivariable Cox proportional hazards models to examine PR interval (hazard ratios expressed per SD increase) and 10-year risks of heart failure, AF, and all-cause mortality. Multivariable models included demographic, anthropometric, and clinical variables in addition to established cardiovascular risk factors. We examined 2722 Health ABC participants (aged 74±3 years, 51.9% women, and 41% black). We did not identify significant effect modification by race for the outcomes studied. After multivariable adjustment, every SD increase (29 ms) in PR interval was associated with a 13% greater 10-year risk of heart failure (95% confidence interval, 1.02-1.25) and a 13% increased risk of incident AF (95% confidence interval, 1.04-1.23). PR interval >200 ms was associated with a 46% increased risk of incident heart failure (95% confidence interval, 1.11-1.93). PR interval was not associated with increased all-cause mortality. CONCLUSIONS We identified significant relationships of PR interval to heart failure and AF in older adults. Our findings extend prior investigations by examining PR interval and associations with adverse outcomes in a biracial cohort of older men and women.

Metabolomics Reveals Aging-associated Attenuation of Noninvasive Radiation Biomarkers in Mice: Potential Role of Polyamine Catabolism and Incoherent DNA Damage-repair

Development of methods for rapid screening and stratification of subjects after exposure is an integral part of countermeasures against radiation. The potential demographic and exposure history-related heterogeneity of exposed populations warrants robust biomarkers that withstand and reflect such differences. In this study, the effect of aging and repeated exposure on the metabolic response to sublethal irradiation was examined in mice using UPLC-ESI-QTOF mass spectrometry. Aging attenuated postexposure elevation in excretions of DNA damage biomarkers as well as N(1)-acetylspermidine. Although N(1)-acetylspermidine and 2'-deoxyuridine elevation was highly correlated in all age groups, xanthine and N(1)-acetylspermidine elevation was poorly correlated in older mice. These results may reflect the established decline in DNA damage-repair efficiency associated with aging and indicate a novel role for polyamine metabolism in the process. Although repeated irradiation at long intervals did not affect the elevation of N(1)-acetylspermidine, 2'-deoxyuridine, and xanthine, it did significantly attenuate the elevation of 2'-deoxycytidine and thymidine compared to a single exposure. However, these biomarkers were found to identify exposed subjects with accuracy ranging from 82% (xanthosine) to 98% (2'-deoxyuridine), irrespective of their age and exposure history. This indicates that metabolic biomarkers can act as robust noninvasive signatures of sublethal radiation exposure.

Risk adjustment in aging societies

Background In Switzerland, age is the predominant driver of solidarity transfers in risk adjustment (RA). Concerns have been voiced regarding growing imbalances in cost sharing between young and old insured due to demographic changes (larger fraction of elderly >65 years and rise in average age). Particularly young adults aged 19–25 with limited incomes have to shoulder increasing solidarity burdens. Between 1996 and 2011, monthly intergenerational solidarity payments for young adults have doubled from CHF 87 to CHF 182, which corresponds to the highest absolute transfer increase of all age groups. Results By constructing models for age-specific RA growth and for calculating the lifetime sum of RA transfers we investigated the causes and consequences of demographic changes on RA payments. The models suggest that the main driver for RA increases in the past was below average health care expenditure (HCE) growth in young adults, which was only half as high (average 2% per year) compared with older adults (average 4% per year). Shifts in age group distributions were only accountable for 2% of the CHF 95 rise in RA payments. Despite rising risk adjustment debts for young insured the balance of lifetime transfers remains positive as long as HCE growth rates are greater than the discount rate used in this model (3%). Moreover, the life-cycle model predicts that the lifetime rate of return on RA payments may even be further increased by demographic changes. Nevertheless, continued growth of RA contributions may overwhelm vulnerable age groups such as young adults. We therefore propose methods to limit the burden of social health insurance for specific age groups (e.g. young adults in Switzerland) by capping solidarity payments. Conclusions Taken together, our mathematical modelling framework helps to gain a better understanding of how demographic changes interact with risk adjustment and how redistribution of funds between age groups can be controlled without inducing further selection incentives. Those methods can help to construct more equitable systems of health financing in light of population aging.

High-risk drug use and sexual behaviors among out-of-treatment drug users: An aging and life course perspective

High-risk injection drug use and the sexual behaviors that accompany it have large social and financial costs. Tailored treatments have been shown to successfully reduce high-risk behaviors. However, little is known about how age and age at first drug use are related to high-risk injection or sex behaviors. The current study draws on life course theory and hypothesizes that age will have a strong relationship with high-risk behaviors of out-of-treatment drug users. Data from the NIDA Cooperative Agreement was used to analyze the relationship between (1) age, and (2) age at first drug use with seven high-risk injection and sexual behavior variables. Negative binomial regression models revealed that high-risk sexual behavior decreases between 15.8 and 20.9% with each decade of age, while high-risk injection behavior increases between 32 and 67% with each decade of age after the addition of demographic controls. Both high-risk injection and high-risk sex behaviors are significantly reduced with a delayed age at first drug use. Previous research promotes interventions to reduce the high-risk sexual behaviors of older drug users. The current study suggests a refocusing of public health efforts on the high-risk injection habits of older drug users.^

Allostatic load as a marker of cumulative biological risk: MacArthur studies of successful aging

Allostatic load (AL) has been proposed as a new conceptualization of cumulative biological burden exacted on the body through attempts to adapt to life's demands. Using a multisystem summary measure of AL, we evaluated its capacity to predict four categories of health outcomes, 7 years after a baseline survey of 1,189 men and women age 70–79. Higher baseline AL scores were associated with significantly increased risk for 7-year mortality as well as declines in cognitive and physical functioning and were marginally associated with incident cardiovascular disease events, independent of standard socio-demographic characteristics and baseline health status. The summary AL measure was based on 10 parameters of biological functioning, four of which are primary mediators in the cascade from perceived challenges to downstream health outcomes. Six of the components are secondary mediators reflecting primarily components of the metabolic syndrome (syndrome X). AL was a better predictor of mortality and decline in physical functioning than either the syndrome X or primary mediator components alone. The findings support the concept of AL as a measure of cumulative biological burden.

Challenges and Opportunities in Managing the Aging Workforce: An Investigation of the Federal Emergency Management Agency

The aging workforce is becoming the majority of the working population in the United States. Although the literature on the aging workforce is sizable, little exists on how public agencies use the older workers. This capstone project examines the challenges and opportunities related to the employment of older workers as seen through a case study of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). Knowledge gained from a synthesis of the literature review with survey data collected and analyzed will enable HR professionals to better understand the demographic, economic, regulatory, and intellectual influences of the aging workforce. The results from the survey of FEMA employees suggest a basis to plan and implement successful hiring and retention policies related to the aging workforce.

USING GPS DATA TO EXPLORE DEMOGRAPHIC PREDICTORS OF LIFE-SPACE: A POOLED ANALYSIS

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Factors associated with high anticholinergic burden in aging adults with intellectual disabilities:a cross-sectional study

Background: Anticholinergic (AC) medications are associated with cognitive and functional decline in older people, with risk of adverse outcomes increasing with increasing AC exposure. Older people with intellectual disabilities are at increased risk of high AC exposure owing to higher prevalence of multimorbidity, particularly psychiatric morbidities. Objectives: The aims of this study were to determine individual’s AC exposure using the AC cognitive burden (ACB) scale, identify therapeutic classes contributing to burden and determine clinical and demographic factors associated with two levels of AC exposure (ACB score 1–4, ACB 5+). Methods: Cross-sectional (self-report/proxy report)medication data were drawn from Wave 1 of the Intellectual Disability Supplement to the Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing, a study on ageing of 753nationally representative people with ID aged over40 randomly selected from the National Intellectual Disability Database. Medication data were available for 736 (98%). Each individual’s cumulative AC exposure was calculated using the ACB. Multinomiallogistic regression was performed identifying clinical and demographic factors associated with ACB score1–4, and ACB 5+. Results: In the eligible population of 736 participants(mean (±SD) age 54.1 (±8.8) years,55% female), 522(70.9%) were exposed to an ACB medicine (ACB 1+); 214 (29%) had an ACB score of 5+; mean total ACB score= 4.5 (±3.0). Antipsychotics accounted for35.6% of the cumulative ACB score. Age over 65yearswas associated with increased likelihood of both levels of AC exposure (ACB 1–4—adjusted OR 3.28; 95%CI 1.49–7.25, ACB 5+—adjusted OR 3.08; 95%CI1.21–7.63) and having a mental health condition(ACB 1–4—adjusted OR 9.79; 95%CI 5.63–17.02, ACB 5+—adjusted OR 23.74; 95%CI 12.29–45.83). Conclusions: Using a simple cumulative measure proved an effective means to capture total burden and established that AC exposure was high and associated with older age and mental health morbidity. This highlights need for comprehensive medication reviews for older people with intellectual disabilities.

Territorial and demographic aspects of the Networks of Protected Natural Areas of Castilla-La Mancha: 1978-2014

The Autonomous Region of Castilla-La Mancha develops from the approval of the Spanish Constitution a whole executive and legislative branch to implement its policies on environmental protection. The new legislation (Law 9/1999, of 26 May) has pursued the conservation and the integral protection of the natural elements of the territory demanding to new criteria as such the environmental quality of ecosystems or the exceptional landscape. The spread and the declaration of new natural spaces have caused a double geographical and territorial model. First, natural spaces located in rural mountainous areas with depopulation and aging problems. And second, natural spaces situated in areas densely populated

THE AGING OF AFRICA: CHALLENGES TO AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT

The purpose of this brief discussion is to highlight issues of demographic changes associated with an aging population in Africa and what, I believe, must happen to avoid the next social crisis among African nations.

Successful aging at 100 years: the relevance of subjectivity and psychological resources

Very old individuals seem to present an admirable capacity to overcome adversities and adapt to the challenges of advanced age. However, studies focusing successful pattern of centenarians found that they may easily fail to be categorized as successful agers when objective criteria are applied. The present study examines if centenarians can be considered successful agers. Following Rowe and Kahn's successful aging model, the primary goal was to clarify whether centenarians are able to be successful agers according to objective and subjective criteria of no major disease and disability, high cognitive and physical functioning and engagement with life. The second goal was to investigate whether socio-demographic factors, psychological, social, and economic resources are related to objective and subjective successful aging profiles.

Health-related And Socio-demographic Factors Associated With Frailty In The Elderly: A Systematic Literature Review.

Frailty is a syndrome that leads to practical harm in the lives of elders, since it is related to increased risk of dependency, falls, hospitalization, institutionalization, and death. The objective of this systematic review was to identify the socio-demographic, psycho-behavioral, health-related, nutritional, and lifestyle factors associated with frailty in the elderly. A total of 4,183 studies published from 2001 to 2013 were detected in the databases, and 182 complete articles were selected. After a comprehensive reading and application of selection criteria, 35 eligible articles remained for analysis. The main factors associated with frailty were: age, female gender, black race/color, schooling, income, cardiovascular diseases, number of comorbidities/diseases, functional incapacity, poor self-rated health, depressive symptoms, cognitive function, body mass index, smoking, and alcohol use. Knowledge of the complexity of determinants of frailty can assist the formulation of measures for prevention and early intervention, thereby contributing to better quality of life for the elderly.

Changes In The Connective Tissue Sheath Of Wistar Rat Nerve With Aging.

The alterations due to aging in the peripheral nerves can affect the physiology of these structures. Thus, the purpose of the present study was to describe the activity of the MMP-2 and MMP-9, as well as the structure and composition of the extracellular matrix of the rat sciatic nerve during maturation and aging. Our results have shown that the extracellular matrix of the sciatic nerve of 30-, 180- and 730-day-old Wistar rats present ultrastructural, morphometrical and biochemical changes during aging. The perineurium was the structure most affected by age, as evidenced by a decrease in thickness and in collagen fibril content. Cytochemical analysis detected proteoglycans in the basal membrane of Schwann cells and around perineural cells, as well as on the collagen fibrils of the perineurium and endoneurium at all ages. Biochemical analyses showed that the quantity of non-collagenous proteins was higher in 730-day-old animals compared to other ages, while the uronic acid content was higher in 30-day-old animals. Morphometrical analysis detected greater numbers of myelinated fibers and increased myelin thickness in 180-day-old animals. Zymography analysis detected greater amounts and activity of MMP-2 and MMP-9 in 180- and 730-day-old animals compared to younger rats. In conclusion, our results showed changes in the structural organization and composition of extracellular matrix of the sciatic nerve during aging, such as increase in the non-collagenous protein content and higher MMP-2 and MMP-9 activity, decrease in uronic acid concentration and in collagen fibril content in the perineurium, as well as degeneration of nerve fibers.