A disaggregate discrete choice model of transportation demand by elderly and disabled people in rural Virginia

This paper uses a correlated multinomial logit model and a Poisson regression model to measure the factors affecting demand for different types of transportation by elderly and disabled people in rural Virginia. The major results are: (a) A paratransit system providing door-to-door service is highly valued by transportation-handicapped people; (b) Taxis are probably a potential but inferior alternative even when subsidized; (c) Buses are a poor alternative, especially in rural areas where distances to bus stops may be long; (d) Making buses handicap-accessible would have a statistically significant but small effect on mode choice; (e) Demand is price inelastic; and (f) The total number of trips taken is insensitive to mode availability and characteristics. These results suggest that transportation-handicapped people take a limited number of trips. Those they do take are in some sense necessary (given the low elasticity with respect to mode price or availability). People will substitute away from relying upon others when appropriate transportation is available, at least to some degree. But such transportation needs to be flexible enough to meet the needs of the people involved.

Hydrogel-forming microneedle arrays made from light-responsive materials for on-demand transdermal drug delivery

We describe, for the first time, stimuli-responsive hydrogel-forming microneedle (MN) arrays that enable delivery of a clinically-relevant model drug (ibuprofen) upon application of light. MN arrays were prepared using a polymer prepared from 2-hydroxyethyl methacrylate (HEMA) and ethylene glycol dimethacrylate (EGDMA) by micromolding. The obtained MN arrays showed good mechanical properties. The system was loaded with up to 5% (w/w) ibuprofen included in a light-responsive 3,5-dimethoxybenzoin conjugate. Raman spectroscopy confirmed the presence of the conjugate inside the polymeric MN matrix. In vitro, this system was able to deliver up to three doses of 50 mg of ibuprofen upon application of an optical trigger over a prolonged period of time (up to 160 hours). This makes the system appealing as a controlled release device for prolonged periods of time. We believe that this technology has potential for use in ?on-demand? delivery of a wide range of drugs in a variety of applications relevant to enhanced patient care.

Towards a demand model for maritime passenger transportation in the Caribbean: a regional study of passenger ferry services

In this paper, the main factors that influence the demand for maritime passenger transportation in the Caribbean were studied. While maritime studies in the Caribbean have focused on infrastructural and operational systems for intensifying trade and movement of goods, there is little information on the movement of persons within the region and its potential to encourage further integration and sustainable development. Data to inform studies and policies in this area are particularly difficult to source. For this study, an unbalanced data set for the 2000-2014 period in 15 destinations with a focus on departing ferry passengers was compiled. Further a demand equation for maritime passenger transportation in the Caribbean using panel data methods was estimated. The results showed that this demand is related to the real fare of the service, international economic activity and the number of passengers arriving in the country by air.

GIS-based analytical tools for transport planning: spatial regression models for transportation demand forecast

Considering the importance of spatial issues in transport planning, the main objective of this study was to analyze the results obtained from different approaches of spatial regression models. In the case of spatial autocorrelation, spatial dependence patterns should be incorporated in the models, since that dependence may affect the predictive power of these models. The results obtained with the spatial regression models were also compared with the results of a multiple linear regression model that is typically used in trips generation estimations. The findings support the hypothesis that the inclusion of spatial effects in regression models is important, since the best results were obtained with alternative models (spatial regression models or the ones with spatial variables included). This was observed in a case study carried out in the city of Porto Alegre, in the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, in the stages of specification and calibration of the models, with two distinct datasets.

Responsive multimodal transportation management strategies and IVHS. Final report.

Federal Highway Administration, Office of Safety and Traffic Operations Research and Development, McLean, Va.

Feasibility of developing low-cost measures of demand for public transportation in rural ares /

Mode of access: Internet.

Stimuli-Responsive Microneedle Arrays For On-Demand Drug Delivery

Pulsatile, or “on-demand”, delivery systems have the capability to deliver a therapeutic molecule at the right time/site of action and in the right amount (1). Pulsatile delivery systems present multiple benefits over conventional dosage forms and provide higher patient compliance. The combination of stimuli-responsive materials with the drug delivery capabilities of hydrogel-forming MN arrays (2) opens an interesting area of research. In the present work we describe, a stimuli-responsive hydrogel-forming microneedle (MN) array that enable delivery of a clinically-relevant model drug (ibuprofen) upon application of UV radiation (Figure 1A). MN arrays were prepared using a micromolding technique using a polymer prepared from 2-hydroxyethyl methacrylate (HEMA) and ethylene glycol dimethacrylate (EGDMA) (Figure 1B). The arrays were loaded with up to 5% (w/w) ibuprofen included in a light-responsible conjugate (3,5-dimethoxybenzoin conjugate) (2). The presence of the conjugate inside the MN arrays was confirmed by Raman spectroscopy measurements. MN arrays were tested in vitro showing that they were able to deliver up to three doses of 50 mg of ibuprofen after application of an optical trigger (wavelength of 365 nm) over a long period of time (up to 160 hours) (Figure 1C and 1D). The work presented here is a probe of concept and a modified version of the system should be used as UV radiation is shown to be the major etiologic agent in the development of skin cancers. Consequently, for future applications of this technology an alternative design should be developed. Based on the previous research dealing with hydrogel forming MN arrays a suitable strategy will be to use hydrogel-forming MN arrays containing a backing layer made with the material described in this work as the drug reservoir (2). Finally, a porous layer of a material that blocks UV radiation should be included between the MN array and the drug reservoir. Therefore radiation can be applied to the system without reaching the skin surface. Therefore after modification, the system described here interesting properties as “on-demand” release system for prolonged periods of time. This technology has potential for use in “on-demand” delivery of a wide range of drugs in a variety of applications relevant to enhanced patient care.

Essays in Personal Transportation Demand and Consumer Finance

This dissertation is composed of three essays covering two areas of interest. The first topic is personal transportation demand with a focus on price and fuel efficiency elasticities of mileage demand, challenging assumptions common in the rebound effect literature. The second topic is consumer finance with a focus on small loans. The first chapter creates separate variables for fuel prices during periods of increasing and decreasing prices as well as an observed fuel economy measure to empirically test the equivalence of these elasticities. Using a panel from Germany from 1997 to 2009 I find a fuel economy elasticity of mileage of 53.3%, which is significantly different from the gas price elasticity of mileage during periods of decreasing gas prices, 4.8%. I reject the null hypothesis or price symmetry, with the elasticity of mileage during period of increasing gas prices ranging from 26.2% and 28.9%. The second chapter explores the potential for the rebound effect to vary with income. Panel data from U.S. households from 1997 to 2003 is used to estimate the rebound effect in a median regression. The estimated rebound effect independent of income ranges from 17.8% to 23.6%. An interaction of income and fuel economy is negative and significant, indicating that the rebound effect may be much higher for low income individuals and decreases with income; the rebound effect for low income households ranged from 80.3% to 105.0%, indicating that such households may increase gasoline consumption given an improvement in fuel economy. The final chapter documents the costs of credit instruments found in major mail order catalogs throughout the 20th century. This study constructs a new dataset and finds that the cost of credit increased and became stickier as mail order retailers switched from an installment-style closed-end loan to a revolving-style credit card. This study argues that revolving credit's ability to decrease salience of credit costs in the price of goods is the best explanation for rate stickiness in the mail order industry as well as for the preference of revolving credit among retailers.

Effect of rain on travel demand and traffic accidents

This paper studies the effect of rain on travel demand measured on the Tokyo Metropolitan Expressway (MEX). Rainfall data monitored by the Japan Meteorological Agency's meso-scale network of weather stations are used. This study found that travel demand decreases during rainy days and, in particular, larger reductions occur over the weekend. The effect of rainfall on the number of accidents recorded on 10 routes on the MEX is also analysed. Statistical testing shows that the average frequency of accidents, during periods of rainfall, is significantly different from the average frequency at other times.

Sustainable urban and transport development for transportation disadvantaged : a review

Around the world, particularly in North America and Australia, urban sprawl combined with low density suburban development has caused serious accessibility and mobility problems, especially for those who do not own a motor vehicle or have access to public transportation services. Sustainable urban and transportation development is seen crucial in solving transportation disadvantage problems in urban settlements. However, current urban and transportation models have not been adequately addressed unsustainable urban transportation problems that transportation disadvantaged groups overwhelmingly encounter, and the negative impacts on the disadvantaged have not been effectively considered. Transportation disadvantaged is a multi-dimensional problem that combines demographic, spatial and transportation service dimensions. Nevertheless, most transportation models focusing on transportation disadvantage only employ demographic and transportation service dimensions and do not take spatial dimension into account. This paper aims to investigate the link between sustainable urban and transportation development and spatial dimension of the transportation disadvantage problem. The paper, for that purpose, provides a thorough review of the literature and identifies a set of urban, development and policy characteristics to define spatial dimension of the transportation disadvantage problem. This paper presents an overview of these urban, development and policy characteristics that have significant relationships with sustainable urban and transportation development and travel inability, which are also useful in determining transportation disadvantaged populations.

The variant concept of transportation disadvantaged : evidence from Aydin, Turkey and Yamaga, Japan

Transportation disadvantaged groups, in the previous studies, are defined as those who are low income earners, family dependent, limited access to private motor vehicles and public transport services, and also those who oblige to spend relatively more time and money on their trips. Additionally those disable, young and elderly are considered among the natural groups of transportation disadvantaged. Although in general terms this definition seems correct, it is not specific enough to become a common universal definition that could apply to all urban contexts. This paper investigates whether travel difficulty perceptions vary and so does the definition of transportation disadvantaged in socio-culturally different urban contexts. For this investigation the paper undertakes a series of statistical analysis in the case study of Yamaga, Japan, and compares the findings with a previous case study, where the same methodology, hypothesis, and assumptions were utilized in a culturally and demographically different settlement of Aydin, Turkey. After comparing the findings observed in Aydin with the statistical analysis results of Yamaga, this paper reveals that there can be no explicitly detailed universal definition of transportation disadvantaged. The paper concludes by stating characteristics of transportation disadvantage is not globally identical, and policies and solutions that work in a locality may not show the same results in another socio-cultural context.

Integrating electrical vehicles to demand side response scheme in Queensland Australia

Depleting fossil fuel resources and increased accumulation of greenhouse gas emissions are increasingly making electrical vehicles (EV) attractive option for the transportation sector. However uncontrolled random charging and discharging of EVs may aggravate the problems of an already stressed system during the peak demand and cause voltage problems during low demand. This paper develops a demand side response scheme for properly integrating EVs in the Electrical Network. The scheme enacted upon information on electricity market conditions regularly released by the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) on the internet. The scheme adopts Internet relays and solid state switches to cycle charging and discharging of EVs. Due to the pending time-of-use and real-price programs, financial benefits will represent driving incentives to consumers to implement the scheme. A wide-scale dissemination of the scheme is expected to mitigate excessive peaks on the electrical network with all associated technical, economic and social benefits.

Calling for help : a responsive evaluation of Child Health Line

The project examined the responsiveness of the telenursing service provided by the Child Health Line (hereinafter referred to as CHL). It aimed to provide an account of population usage of the service, the call request types and the response of the service to the calls. In so doing, the project extends the current body of knowledge pertaining to the provision of parenting support through telenursing. Approximately 900 calls to the CHL were audio-recorded over the December 2005-2006 Christmas-New Year period. A protocol was developed to code characteristics of the call, the interactional features between the caller and nurse call-taker, and the extent to which there was (a) agreement on problem definition and the plan of action and (b) interactional alignment between nurse and caller. A quantitative analysis examined the frequencies of the main topics covered in calls to the CHL and any statistical associations between types of calls, length of calls and nurse-caller alignment. In addition, a detailed qualitative analysis was conducted on a subset of calls dealing with the nurse management of calls seeking medical advice and information. Key findings include: • Overall, 74% of the calls discussed parenting and child development issues, 48% discussed health/medical issues, and 16% were information-seeking calls. • More specifically: o 21% discussed health/medical and parenting and child development issues. o 3% discussed parenting and information-seeking issues. o 5% discussed health/medical, parenting/development and information issues. o 18% exclusively focussed on health and medical issues and therefore were outside the remit of the intended scope of the CHL. These calls caused interactional dilemmas for the nurse call-takers as they simultaneously dealt with parental expectations for help and the CHL guidelines indicating that offering medical advice was outside the remit of the service. • Most frequent reasons for calling were to discuss sleep, feeding, normative infant physical functions and parenting advice. • The average length of calls to the CHL was 7 minutes. • Longer calls were more likely to involve nurse call-takers giving advice on more than one topic, the caller displaying strong emotions, the caller not specifically providing the reason for the call, and the caller discussing parenting and developmental issues. • Shorter calls were characterised by the nurse suggesting that the child receive immediate medical attention, the nurse emphasising the importance or urgency of the plan of action, the caller referring to or requesting confirmation of a diagnosis, and caller and nurse call-taker discussion of health and medical issues. • The majority of calls, 92%, achieved parent-nurse alignment by the conclusion of the call. However, 8% did not. • The 8% of calls that were not aligned require further quantitative and qualitative investigation of the interactional features. The findings are pertinent in the current context where Child Health Line now resides within 13HEALTH. These findings indicate: 1. A high demand for parenting advice. 2. Nurse call-takers have a high level of competency in dealing with calls about parenting and normal child development, which is the remit of the CHL. 3. Nurse call-takers and callers achieve a high degree of alignment when both parties agree on a course of action. 4. There is scope for developing professional practice in calls that present difficulties in terms of call content, interactional behaviour and call closure. Recommendations of the project: 1. There are numerous opportunities for further research on interactional aspects of calls to the CHL, such as further investigations of the interactional features and the association of the features to alignment and nonalignment. The rich and detailed insights into the patterns of nurse-parent interactions were afforded by the audio-recording and analysis of calls to the CHL. 2. The regular recording of calls would serve as a way of increasing understanding of the type and nature of calls received, and provide a valuable training resource. Recording and analysing calls to CHL provides insight into the operation of the service, including evidence about the effectiveness of triaging calls. 3. Training in both recognising and dealing with problem calls may be beneficial. For example, calls where the caller showed strong emotion, appeared stressed, frustrated or troubled were less likely to be rated as aligned calls. In calls where the callers described being ‘at their wits end’, or responded to each proposed suggestion with ‘I’ve tried that’, the callers were fairly resistant to advice-giving. 4. Training could focus on strategies for managing calls relating to parenting support and advice, and parental well-being. The project found that these calls were more likely to be rated as being nonaligned. 5. With the implementation of 13HEALTH, future research could compare nurse-parent interaction following the implementation of triaging. Of the calls, 21% had both medical and parenting topics discussed and 5.3% discussed medical, parenting and information topics. Added to this, in 12% of calls, there was ambiguity between the caller and nurse call-taker as to whether the problem was medical or behavioural.

The impact of a congestion charging exemption on the demand for new low‐emission vehicles

Numerous initiatives have been employed around the world in order to address rising greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions originating from the transport sector. These measures include: travel demand management (congestion‐charging), increased fuel taxes, alternative fuel subsidies and low‐emission vehicle (LEV) rebates. Incentivizing the purchase of LEVs has been one of the more prevalent approaches in attempting to tackle this global issue. LEVs, whilst having the advantage of lower emissions and, in some cases, more efficient fuel consumption, also bring the downsides of increased purchase cost, reduced convenience of vehicle fuelling, and operational uncertainty. To stimulate demand in the face of these challenges, various incentive‐based policies, such as toll exemptions, have been used by national and local governments to encourage the purchase of these types of vehicles. In order to address rising GHG emissions in Stockholm, and in line with the Swedish Government’s ambition to operate a fossil free fleet by 2030, a number of policies were implemented targeting the transport sector. Foremost amongst these was the combination of a congestion charge – initiated to discourage emissions‐intensive travel – and an exemption from this charge for some LEVs, established to encourage a transition towards a ‘green’ vehicle fleet. Although both policies shared the aim of reducing GHG emissions, the exemption for LEVs carried the risk of diminishing the effectiveness of the congestion charging scheme. As the number of vehicle owners choosing to transition to an eligible LEV increased, the congestion‐reduction effectiveness of the charging scheme weakened. In fact, policy makers quickly recognized this potential issue and consequently phased out the LEV exemption less than 18 months after its introduction (1). Several studies have investigated the demand for LEVs through stated‐preference (SP) surveys across multiple countries, including: Denmark (2), Germany (3, 4), UK (5), Canada (6), USA (7, 8) and Australia (9). Although each of these studies differed in approach, all involved SP surveys where differing characteristics between various types of vehicles, including LEVs, were presented to respondents and these respondents in turn made hypothetical decisions about which vehicle they would be most likely to purchase. Although these studies revealed a number of interesting findings in regards to the potential demand for LEVs, they relied on SP data. In contrast, this paper employs an approach where LEV choice is modelled by taking a retrospective view and by using revealed preference (RP) data. By examining the revealed preferences of vehicle owners in Stockholm, this study overcomes one of the principal limitations of SP data, namely that stated preferences may not in fact reflect individuals’ actual choices, such as when cost, time, and inconvenience factors are real rather than hypothetical. This paper’s RP approach involves modelling the characteristics of individuals who purchased new LEVs, whilst estimating the effect of the congestion charging exemption upon choice probabilities and subsequent aggregate demand. The paper contributes to the current literature by examining the effectiveness of a toll exemption under revealed preference conditions, and by assessing the total effect of the policy based on key indicators for policy makers, including: vehicle owner home location, commuting patterns, number of children, age, gender and income. Extended Abstract Submission for Kuhmo Nectar Conference 2014 2 The two main research questions motivating this study were:  Which individuals chose to purchase a new LEV in Stockholm in 2008?; and,  How did the congestion charging exemption affect the aggregate demand for new LEVs in Stockholm in 2008? In order to answer these research questions the analysis was split into two stages. Firstly, a multinomial logit (MNL) model was used to identify which demographic characteristics were most significantly related to the purchase of an LEV over a conventional vehicle. The three most significant variables were found to be: intra‐cordon residency (positive); commuting across the cordon (positive); and distance of residence from the cordon (negative). In order to estimate the effect of the exemption policy on vehicle purchase choice, the model included variables to control for geographic differences in preferences, based on the location of the vehicle owners’ homes and workplaces in relation to the congestion‐charging cordon boundary. These variables included one indicator representing commutes across the cordon and another indicator representing intra‐cordon residency. The effect of the exemption policy on the probability of purchasing LEVs was estimated in the second stage of the analysis by focusing on the groups of vehicle owners that were most likely to have been affected by the policy i.e. those commuting across the cordon boundary (in both directions). Given the inclusion of the indicator variable representing commutes across the cordon, it is assumed that the estimated coefficient of this variable captures the effect of the exemption policy on the utility of choosing to purchase an exempt LEV for these two groups of vehicle owners. The intra‐cordon residency indicator variable also controls for differences between the two groups, based upon direction of travel across the cordon boundary. A counter‐hypothesis to this assumption is that the coefficient of the variable representing commuting across the cordon boundary instead only captures geo‐demographic differences that lead to variations in LEV ownership across the different groups of vehicle owners in relation to the cordon boundary. In order to address this counter‐hypothesis, an additional analysis was performed on data from a city with a similar geodemographic pattern to Stockholm, Gothenburg ‐ Sweden’s second largest city. The results of this analysis provided evidence to support the argument that the coefficient of the variable representing commutes across the cordon was capturing the effect of the exemption policy. Based upon this framework, the predicted vehicle type shares were calculated using the estimated coefficients of the MNL model and compared with predicted vehicle type shares from a simulated scenario where the exemption policy was inactive. This simulated scenario was constructed by setting the coefficient for the variable representing commutes across the cordon boundary to zero for all observations to remove the utility benefit of the exemption policy. Overall, the procedure of this second stage of the analysis led to results showing that the exemption had a substantial effect upon the probability of purchasing and aggregate demand for exempt LEVs in Stockholm during 2008. By making use of unique evidence of revealed preferences of LEV owners, this study identifies the common characteristics of new LEV owners and estimates the effect of Stockholm's congestion charging exemption upon the demand for new LEVs during 2008. It was found that the variables that had the greatest effect upon the choice of purchasing an exempt LEV included intra‐cordon residency (positive), distance of home from the cordon (negative), and commuting across the cordon (positive). It was also determined that owners under the age of 30 years preferred non‐exempt LEVs (low CO2 LEVs), whilst those over the age of 30 years preferred electric vehicles. In terms of electric vehicles, it was apparent that those individuals living within the city had the highest propensity towards purchasing this vehicle type. A negative relationship between choosing an electric vehicle and the distance of an individuals’ residency from the cordon was also evident. Overall, the congestion charging exemption was found to have increased the share of exempt LEVs in Stockholm by 1.9%, with, as expected, a much stronger effect on those commuting across the boundary, with those living inside the cordon having a 13.1% increase, and those owners living outside the cordon having a 5.0% increase. This increase in demand corresponded to an additional 538 (+/‐ 93; 95% C.I.) new exempt LEVs purchased in Stockholm during 2008 (out of a total of 5 427; 9.9%). Policy makers can take note that an incentive‐based policy can increase the demand for LEVs and appears to be an appropriate approach to adopt when attempting to reduce transport emissions through encouraging a transition towards a ‘green’ vehicle fleet.