Infusing the use of seasonal climate forecasting into crop management practice in North East Australia using discussion support software

Seasonal climate forecasting offers potential for improving management of crop production risks in the cropping systems of NE Australia. But how is this capability best connected to management practice? Over the past decade, we have pursued participative systems approaches involving simulation-aided discussion with advisers and decision-makers. This has led to the development of discussion support software as a key vehicle for facilitating infusion of forecasting capability into practice. In this paper, we set out the basis of our approach, its implementation and preliminary evaluation. We outline the development of the discussion support software Whopper Cropper, which was designed for, and in close consultation with, public and private advisers. Whopper Cropper consists of a database of simulation output and a graphical user interface to generate analyses of risks associated with crop management options. The charts produced provide conversation pieces for advisers to use with their farmer clients in relation to the significant decisions they face. An example application, detail of the software development process and an initial survey of user needs are presented. We suggest that discussion support software is about moving beyond traditional notions of supply-driven decision support systems. Discussion support software is largely demand-driven and can compliment participatory action research programs by providing cost-effective general delivery of simulation-aided discussions about relevant management actions. The critical role of farm management advisers and dialogue among key players is highlighted. We argue that the discussion support concept, as exemplified by the software tool Whopper Cropper and the group processes surrounding it, provides an effective means to infuse innovations, like seasonal climate forecasting, into farming practice. Crown Copyright (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Stressful working conditions and poor self-rated health among financial services employees

OBJECTIVE: To assess the association between exposure to adverse psychosocial working conditions and poor self-rated health among bank employees. METHODS: A cross-sectional study including a sample of 2,054 employees of a government bank was conducted in 2008. Self-rated health was assessed by a single question: "In general, would you say your health is (...)." Exposure to adverse psychosocial working conditions was evaluated by the effort-reward imbalance model and the demand-control model. Information on other independent variables was obtained through a self-administered semi-structured questionnaire. A multiple logistic regression analysis was performed and odds ratio calculated to assess independent associations between adverse psychosocial working conditions and poor self-rated health. RESULTS: The overall prevalence of poor self-rated health was 9%, with no significant gender difference. Exposure to high demand and low control environment at work was associated with poor self-rated health. Employees with high effort-reward imbalance and overcommitment also reported poor self-rated health, with a dose-response relationship. Social support at work was inversely related to poor self-rated health, with a dose-response relationship. CONCLUSIONS: Exposure to adverse psychosocial work factors assessed based on the effort-reward imbalance model and the demand-control model is independently associated with poor self-rated health among the workers studied.

Effects of irregular-shift work and physical activity on cardiovascular risk factors in truck drivers

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the putative effect of type of shift and its interaction with leisure-time physical activity on cardiovascular risk factors in truck drivers.METHODS: A cross-sectional study was undertaken on 57 male truck drivers working at a transportation company, of whom 31 worked irregular shifts and 26 worked on the day-shift. Participants recorded their physical activity using the International Physical Activity Questionnaire along with measurements of blood pressure, body mass index and waist-hip ratio. Participants also provided a fasting blood sample for analysis of lipid-related outcomes. Data were analyzed using a factorial model which was covariate-controlled for age, smoking, work demand, control at work and social support.RESULTS: Most of the irregular-shift and day-shift workers worked more than 8 hours per day (67.7% and 73.1%, respectively). The mean duration of experience working the irregular schedule was 15.7 years. Day-shift workers had never engaged in irregular-shift work and had been working as a truck driver for 10.8 years on average. The irregular-shift drivers had lower work demand but less control compared to day-shift drivers (p < 0.05). Moderately-active irregular-shift workers had higher systolic and diastolic arterial pressures (143.7 and 93.2 mmHg, respectively) than moderately-active day-shift workers (116 and 73.3 mmHg, respectively) (p < 0.05) as well as higher total cholesterol concentrations (232.1 and 145 mg/dl, respectively) (p = 0.01). Irrespective of their physical activity, irregular-shift drivers had higher total cholesterol and LDL-cholesterol concentrations (211.8 and 135.7 mg/dl, respectively) than day-shift workers (161.9 and 96.7 mg/dl, respectively (ANCOVA, p < 0.05).CONCLUSIONS: Truck drivers are exposed to cardiovascular risk factors due to the characteristics of the job, such as high work demand, long working hours and time in this profession, regardless of shift type or leisure-time physical activity.

On performance of distributed model predictive control in power system frequency regulation

This paper describes the implementation of a distributed model predictive approach for automatic generation control. Performance results are discussed by comparing classical techniques (based on integral control) with model predictive control solutions (centralized and distributed) for different operational scenarios with two interconnected networks. These scenarios include variable load levels (ranging from a small to a large unbalance generated power to power consumption ratio) and simultaneously variable distance between the interconnected networks systems. For the two networks the paper also examines the impact of load variation in an island context (a network isolated from each other).

A comparison of results from MRIO and interregional computable general equilibrium (CGE) analyses of the impacts of a positive demand shock on the ‘CO2 trade balance’ between Scotland and the rest of the UK

In previous work we have applied the environmental multi-region input-output (MRIO) method proposed by Turner et al (2007) to examine the ‘CO2 trade balance’ between Scotland and the Rest of the UK. In McGregor et al (2008) we construct an interregional economy-environment input-output (IO) and social accounting matrix (SAM) framework that allows us to investigate methods of attributing responsibility for pollution generation in the UK at the regional level. This facilitates analysis of the nature and significance of environmental spillovers and the existence of an environmental ‘trade balance’ between regions. While the existence of significant data problems mean that the quantitative results of this study should be regarded as provisional, we argue that the use of such a framework allows us to begin to consider questions such as the extent to which a devolved authority like the Scottish Parliament can and should be responsible for contributing to national targets for reductions in emissions levels (e.g. the UK commitment to the Kyoto Protocol) when it is limited in the way it can control emissions, particularly with respect to changes in demand elsewhere in the UK. However, while such analysis is useful in terms of accounting for pollution flows in the single time period that the accounts relate to, it is limited when the focus is on modelling the impacts of any marginal change in activity. This is because a conventional demand-driven IO model assumes an entirely passive supply-side in the economy (i.e. all supply is infinitely elastic) and is further restricted by the assumption of universal Leontief (fixed proportions) technology implied by the use of the A and multiplier matrices. In this paper we argue that where analysis of marginal changes in activity is required, a more flexible interregional computable general equilibrium approach that models behavioural relationships in a more realistic and theory-consistent manner, is more appropriate and informative. To illustrate our analysis, we compare the results of introducing a positive demand stimulus in the UK economy using both IO and CGE interregional models of Scotland and the rest of the UK. In the case of the latter, we demonstrate how more theory consistent modelling of both demand and supply side behaviour at the regional and national levels affect model results, including the impact on the interregional CO2 ‘trade balance’.

Regional consumption of antibiotics : a demand system approach

Through this paper. we have attempted to model the demand for different classes of antibiotics used for respiratory infections in outpatient care in Switzerland using a spatial version of the linear approximate Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) model. This model takes spatial dependency into account by means of spatial lags of antibiotic budget shares. We control for the health status of patients and the potential harmful effects of antibiotic use in terms of bacterial resistance. Elasticities to socioeconomic determinants of consumption and own- and cross-price elasticities between different groups of antibiotic have also been computed in this paper. Significant cross-price elasticities are found between newer or more expensive generations and older or less expensive generations of antibiotics. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A finite-population revenue management model and a risk-ratio procedure for the joint estimation of population size and parameters

Many dynamic revenue management models divide the sale period into a finite number of periods T and assume, invoking a fine-enough grid of time, that each period sees at most one booking request. These Poisson-type assumptions restrict the variability of the demand in the model, but researchers and practitioners were willing to overlook this for the benefit of tractability of the models. In this paper, we criticize this model from another angle. Estimating the discrete finite-period model poses problems of indeterminacy and non-robustness: Arbitrarily fixing T leads to arbitrary control values and on the other hand estimating T from data adds an additional layer of indeterminacy. To counter this, we first propose an alternate finite-population model that avoids this problem of fixing T and allows a wider range of demand distributions, while retaining the useful marginal-value properties of the finite-period model. The finite-population model still requires jointly estimating market size and the parameters of the customer purchase model without observing no-purchases. Estimation of market-size when no-purchases are unobservable has rarely been attempted in the marketing or revenue management literature. Indeed, we point out that it is akin to the classical statistical problem of estimating the parameters of a binomial distribution with unknown population size and success probability, and hence likely to be challenging. However, when the purchase probabilities are given by a functional form such as a multinomial-logit model, we propose an estimation heuristic that exploits the specification of the functional form, the variety of the offer sets in a typical RM setting, and qualitative knowledge of arrival rates. Finally we perform simulations to show that the estimator is very promising in obtaining unbiased estimates of population size and the model parameters.

Development of a New Welding Product Quality Control and Management System Model for China

The Chinese welding industry is growing every year due to rapid development of the Chinese economy. Increasingly, companies around the world are looking to use Chinese enterprises as their cooperation partners. However, the Chinese welding industry also has its weaknesses, such as relatively low quality and weak management. A modern, advanced welding management system appropriate for local socio-economic conditions is required to enable Chinese enterprises to enhance further their business development. The thesis researches the design and implementation of a new welding quality management system for China. This new system is called ‗welding production quality control management model in China‘ (WQMC). Constructed on the basis of analysis of a survey and in-company interviews, the welding management system comprises the following different elements and perspectives: a ‗Localized congenital existing problem resolution strategies‘ (LCEPRS) database, a ‗human factor designed training system‘ (HFDT) training strategy, the theory of modular design, ISO 3834 requirements, total welding management (TWM), and lean manufacturing (LEAN) theory. The methods used in the research are literature review, questionnaires, interviews, and the author‘s model design experiences and observations, i.e. the approach is primarily qualitative and phenomenological. The thesis describes the design and implementation of a HFDT strategy in Chinese welding companies. Such training is an effective way to increase employees‘ awareness of quality and issues associated with quality assurance. The study identified widely existing problems in the Chinese welding industry and constructed a LCEPRS database that can be used in efforts to mitigate and avoid common problems. The work uses the theory of modular design, TWM and LEAN as tools for the implementation of the WQMC system.

L'influence de la culture organisationnelle sur l'épuisement professionnel ; étude comparative entre cols blancs et policiers d'un service de police urbain.

Ce mémoire élaboré dans le cadre d'une étude plus vaste sur la santé mentale au travail étudie l'effet de la culture organisationnelle ainsi que certains facteurs du travail comme la supervision abusive, la latitude décisionnelle, l'utilisation des compétences, l'autorité décisionnelle, les demandes psychologiques, le soutien social ainsi que l'horaire de travail sur l'épuisement professionnel et ses trois dimensions. Ces facteurs, à l'exception de la culture organisationnelle ont fait l'objet d'études approfondies dans le passé. Ce mémoire se base sur un modèle connu et régulièrement utilisé mesurant l'effet de ces facteurs du travail sur la santé mentale. Ce modèle est communément appelé le modèle demandes-contrôle de Karasek. L'échantillon à l'étude est constitué de 384 policiers et travailleurs cols blancs travaillant pour le service de police de la Ville de Montréal. La récolte des données à été effectuée en 2008 et 2009. Ce mémoire confirme en partie les résultats fréquemment observés dans les études sur le sujet. La supervision abusive, les demandes psychologiques et certains types de culture augmentent le niveau d'épuisement professionnel. D'autres variables comme la latitude décisionnelle et certains autres types de culture organisationnelle réduisent le niveau d'épuisement professionnel.

Real-Time Control Of Floods Along The Demer River, Belgium, By Means Of MPC In Combination With GA And A Fast Conceptual River Model

Climate model projections show that climate change will further increase the risk of flooding in many regions of the world. There is a need for climate adaptation, but building new infrastructure or additional retention basins has its limits, especially in densely populated areas where open spaces are limited. Another solution is the more efficient use of the existing infrastructure. This research investigates a method for real-time flood control by means of existing gated weirs and retention basins. The method was tested for the specific study area of the Demer basin in Belgium but is generally applicable. Today, retention basins along the Demer River are controlled by means of adjustable gated weirs based on fixed logic rules. However, because of the high complexity of the system, only suboptimal results are achieved by these rules. By making use of precipitation forecasts and combined hydrological-hydraulic river models, the state of the river network can be predicted. To fasten the calculation speed, a conceptual river model was used. The conceptual model was combined with a Model Predictive Control (MPC) algorithm and a Genetic Algorithm (GA). The MPC algorithm predicts the state of the river network depending on the positions of the adjustable weirs in the basin. The GA generates these positions in a semi-random way. Cost functions, based on water levels, were introduced to evaluate the efficiency of each generation, based on flood damage minimization. In the final phase of this research the influence of the most important MPC and GA parameters was investigated by means of a sensitivity study. The results show that the MPC-GA algorithm manages to reduce the total flood volume during the historical event of September 1998 by 46% in comparison with the current regulation. Based on the MPC-GA results, some recommendations could be formulated to improve the logic rules.

Architectures and design patterns for functional design of logic control and diagnostics in industrial automation

Recently in most of the industrial automation process an ever increasing degree of automation has been observed. This increasing is motivated by the higher requirement of systems with great performance in terms of quality of products/services generated, productivity, efficiency and low costs in the design, realization and maintenance. This trend in the growth of complex automation systems is rapidly spreading over automated manufacturing systems (AMS), where the integration of the mechanical and electronic technology, typical of the Mechatronics, is merging with other technologies such as Informatics and the communication networks. An AMS is a very complex system that can be thought constituted by a set of flexible working stations, one or more transportation systems. To understand how this machine are important in our society let considerate that every day most of us use bottles of water or soda, buy product in box like food or cigarets and so on. Another important consideration from its complexity derive from the fact that the the consortium of machine producers has estimated around 350 types of manufacturing machine. A large number of manufacturing machine industry are presented in Italy and notably packaging machine industry,in particular a great concentration of this kind of industry is located in Bologna area; for this reason the Bologna area is called “packaging valley”. Usually, the various parts of the AMS interact among them in a concurrent and asynchronous way, and coordinate the parts of the machine to obtain a desiderated overall behaviour is an hard task. Often, this is the case in large scale systems, organized in a modular and distributed manner. Even if the success of a modern AMS from a functional and behavioural point of view is still to attribute to the design choices operated in the definition of the mechanical structure and electrical electronic architecture, the system that governs the control of the plant is becoming crucial, because of the large number of duties associated to it. Apart from the activity inherent to the automation of themachine cycles, the supervisory system is called to perform other main functions such as: emulating the behaviour of traditional mechanical members thus allowing a drastic constructive simplification of the machine and a crucial functional flexibility; dynamically adapting the control strategies according to the different productive needs and to the different operational scenarios; obtaining a high quality of the final product through the verification of the correctness of the processing; addressing the operator devoted to themachine to promptly and carefully take the actions devoted to establish or restore the optimal operating conditions; managing in real time information on diagnostics, as a support of the maintenance operations of the machine. The kind of facilities that designers can directly find on themarket, in terms of software component libraries provides in fact an adequate support as regard the implementation of either top-level or bottom-level functionalities, typically pertaining to the domains of user-friendly HMIs, closed-loop regulation and motion control, fieldbus-based interconnection of remote smart devices. What is still lacking is a reference framework comprising a comprehensive set of highly reusable logic control components that, focussing on the cross-cutting functionalities characterizing the automation domain, may help the designers in the process of modelling and structuring their applications according to the specific needs. Historically, the design and verification process for complex automated industrial systems is performed in empirical way, without a clear distinction between functional and technological-implementation concepts and without a systematic method to organically deal with the complete system. Traditionally, in the field of analog and digital control design and verification through formal and simulation tools have been adopted since a long time ago, at least for multivariable and/or nonlinear controllers for complex time-driven dynamics as in the fields of vehicles, aircrafts, robots, electric drives and complex power electronics equipments. Moving to the field of logic control, typical for industrial manufacturing automation, the design and verification process is approached in a completely different way, usually very “unstructured”. No clear distinction between functions and implementations, between functional architectures and technological architectures and platforms is considered. Probably this difference is due to the different “dynamical framework”of logic control with respect to analog/digital control. As a matter of facts, in logic control discrete-events dynamics replace time-driven dynamics; hence most of the formal and mathematical tools of analog/digital control cannot be directly migrated to logic control to enlighten the distinction between functions and implementations. In addition, in the common view of application technicians, logic control design is strictly connected to the adopted implementation technology (relays in the past, software nowadays), leading again to a deep confusion among functional view and technological view. In Industrial automation software engineering, concepts as modularity, encapsulation, composability and reusability are strongly emphasized and profitably realized in the so-calledobject-oriented methodologies. Industrial automation is receiving lately this approach, as testified by some IEC standards IEC 611313, IEC 61499 which have been considered in commercial products only recently. On the other hand, in the scientific and technical literature many contributions have been already proposed to establish a suitable modelling framework for industrial automation. During last years it was possible to note a considerable growth in the exploitation of innovative concepts and technologies from ICT world in industrial automation systems. For what concerns the logic control design, Model Based Design (MBD) is being imported in industrial automation from software engineering field. Another key-point in industrial automated systems is the growth of requirements in terms of availability, reliability and safety for technological systems. In other words, the control system should not only deal with the nominal behaviour, but should also deal with other important duties, such as diagnosis and faults isolations, recovery and safety management. Indeed, together with high performance, in complex systems fault occurrences increase. This is a consequence of the fact that, as it typically occurs in reliable mechatronic systems, in complex systems such as AMS, together with reliable mechanical elements, an increasing number of electronic devices are also present, that are more vulnerable by their own nature. The diagnosis problem and the faults isolation in a generic dynamical system consists in the design of an elaboration unit that, appropriately processing the inputs and outputs of the dynamical system, is also capable of detecting incipient faults on the plant devices, reconfiguring the control system so as to guarantee satisfactory performance. The designer should be able to formally verify the product, certifying that, in its final implementation, it will perform itsrequired function guarantying the desired level of reliability and safety; the next step is that of preventing faults and eventually reconfiguring the control system so that faults are tolerated. On this topic an important improvement to formal verification of logic control, fault diagnosis and fault tolerant control results derive from Discrete Event Systems theory. The aimof this work is to define a design pattern and a control architecture to help the designer of control logic in industrial automated systems. The work starts with a brief discussion on main characteristics and description of industrial automated systems on Chapter 1. In Chapter 2 a survey on the state of the software engineering paradigm applied to industrial automation is discussed. Chapter 3 presentes a architecture for industrial automated systems based on the new concept of Generalized Actuator showing its benefits, while in Chapter 4 this architecture is refined using a novel entity, the Generalized Device in order to have a better reusability and modularity of the control logic. In Chapter 5 a new approach will be present based on Discrete Event Systems for the problemof software formal verification and an active fault tolerant control architecture using online diagnostic. Finally conclusive remarks and some ideas on new directions to explore are given. In Appendix A are briefly reported some concepts and results about Discrete Event Systems which should help the reader in understanding some crucial points in chapter 5; while in Appendix B an overview on the experimental testbed of the Laboratory of Automation of University of Bologna, is reported to validated the approach presented in chapter 3, chapter 4 and chapter 5. In Appendix C some components model used in chapter 5 for formal verification are reported.

Development of control-oriented models of Dual Clutch Transmission systems

A control-oriented model of a Dual Clutch Transmission was developed for real-time Hardware In the Loop (HIL) applications, to support model-based development of the DCT controller. The model is an innovative attempt to reproduce the fast dynamics of the actuation system while maintaining a step size large enough for real-time applications. The model comprehends a detailed physical description of hydraulic circuit, clutches, synchronizers and gears, and simplified vehicle and internal combustion engine sub-models. As the oil circulating in the system has a large bulk modulus, the pressure dynamics are very fast, possibly causing instability in a real-time simulation; the same challenge involves the servo valves dynamics, due to the very small masses of the moving elements. Therefore, the hydraulic circuit model has been modified and simplified without losing physical validity, in order to adapt it to the real-time simulation requirements. The results of offline simulations have been compared to on-board measurements to verify the validity of the developed model, that was then implemented in a HIL system and connected to the TCU (Transmission Control Unit). Several tests have been performed: electrical failure tests on sensors and actuators, hydraulic and mechanical failure tests on hydraulic valves, clutches and synchronizers, and application tests comprehending all the main features of the control performed by the TCU. Being based on physical laws, in every condition the model simulates a plausible reaction of the system. The first intensive use of the HIL application led to the validation of the new safety strategies implemented inside the TCU software. A test automation procedure has been developed to permit the execution of a pattern of tests without the interaction of the user; fully repeatable tests can be performed for non-regression verification, allowing the testing of new software releases in fully automatic mode.

Are HRM practices related with patient mortality in NHS hospitals?:A study examining the underlying reasons for such an association

This thesis will report details of two studies conducted within the National Health Service in the UK that examined the association between HRM practices related to training and appraisal with health outcomes within NHS Trusts. Study one represents the organisational analysis of 61 NHS Trusts, and will report training and appraisal practices were significantly associated with lower patient mortality. Specifically, the research will show significantly lower patient mortality within NHS Trusts that: a) had achieved Investors in People accreditation; b) had a formal strategy document relating to training; c) had tailored training policy documents across occupational groups; d) had integrated training and appraisal practices; e) had a high percentage of staff receiving either an appraisal or updated personal development plan. There was also evidence of an additive effect where NHS Trusts that displayed more of these characteristics had significantly lower patient mortality. Study one in this thesis will also report significantly lower patient mortality within the NHS Trusts where there was broad level representation for the HR function. Study two will report details of a study conducted to examine the potential reasons why HR practices may be related to hospital performance. Details are given of the results of a staff attitudinal survey within five NHS Trusts. This study examined will show that a range of developmental activity, the favourability of the immediate work environment (in relation to social support and role stressors) and motivational outcomes are important antecedents to citizenship behaviours. Furthermore, the thesis will report that principles of the demand-control model were adopted to examine the relationship between workplace support and role stressors, and workplace support, influence, and an understanding of role expectation help mitigate against the negative effects of work demands upon motivational outcomes.

Engineering access control for distributed enterprise applications

Access control (AC) is a necessary defense against a large variety of security attacks on the resources of distributed enterprise applications. However, to be effective, AC in some application domains has to be fine-grain, support the use of application-specific factors in authorization decisions, as well as consistently and reliably enforce organization-wide authorization policies across enterprise applications. Because the existing middleware technologies do not provide a complete solution, application developers resort to embedding AC functionality in application systems. This coupling of AC functionality with application logic causes significant problems including tremendously difficult, costly and error prone development, integration, and overall ownership of application software. The way AC for application systems is engineered needs to be changed. ^ In this dissertation, we propose an architectural approach for engineering AC mechanisms to address the above problems. First, we develop a framework for implementing the role-based access control (RBAC) model using AC mechanisms provided by CORBA Security. For those application domains where the granularity of CORBA controls and the expressiveness of RBAC model suffice, our framework addresses the stated problem. ^ In the second and main part of our approach, we propose an architecture for an authorization service, RAD, to address the problem of controlling access to distributed application resources, when the granularity and support for complex policies by middleware AC mechanisms are inadequate. Applying this architecture, we developed a CORBA-based application authorization service (CAAS). Using CAAS, we studied the main properties of the architecture and showed how they can be substantiated by employing CORBA and Java technologies. Our approach enables a wide-ranging solution for controlling the resources of distributed enterprise applications. ^

Engineering access control for distributed enterprise applications

Access control (AC) is a necessary defense against a large variety of security attacks on the resources of distributed enterprise applications. However, to be effective, AC in some application domains has to be fine-grain, support the use of application-specific factors in authorization decisions, as well as consistently and reliably enforce organization-wide authorization policies across enterprise applications. Because the existing middleware technologies do not provide a complete solution, application developers resort to embedding AC functionality in application systems. This coupling of AC functionality with application logic causes significant problems including tremendously difficult, costly and error prone development, integration, and overall ownership of application software. The way AC for application systems is engineered needs to be changed. In this dissertation, we propose an architectural approach for engineering AC mechanisms to address the above problems. First, we develop a framework for implementing the role-based access control (RBAC) model using AC mechanisms provided by CORBA Security. For those application domains where the granularity of CORBA controls and the expressiveness of RBAC model suffice, our framework addresses the stated problem. In the second and main part of our approach, we propose an architecture for an authorization service, RAD, to address the problem of controlling access to distributed application resources, when the granularity and support for complex policies by middleware AC mechanisms are inadequate. Applying this architecture, we developed a CORBA-based application authorization service (CAAS). Using CAAS, we studied the main properties of the architecture and showed how they can be substantiated by employing CORBA and Java technologies. Our approach enables a wide-ranging solution for controlling the resources of distributed enterprise applications.