Oscillatory regulation of Hes1: Discrete stochastic delay modelling and simulation

Discrete stochastic simulations are a powerful tool for understanding the dynamics of chemical kinetics when there are small-to-moderate numbers of certain molecular species. In this paper we introduce delays into the stochastic simulation algorithm, thus mimicking delays associated with transcription and translation. We then show that this process may well explain more faithfully than continuous deterministic models the observed sustained oscillations in expression levels of hes1 mRNA and Hes1 protein.

Measuring and monitoring soil organic carbon stocks in agricultural lands for climate mitigation

Policies that encourage greenhouse-gas emitters to mitigate emissions through terrestrial carbon (C) offsets – C sequestration in soils or biomass – will promote practices that reduce erosion and build soil fertility, while fostering adaptation to climate change, agricultural development, and rehabilitation of degraded soils. However none of these benefits will be possible until changes in C stocks can be documented accurately and cost-effectively. This is particularly challenging when dealing with changes in soil organic C (SOC) stocks. Precise methods for measuring C in soil samples are well established, but spatial variability in the factors that determine SOC stocks makes it difficult to document change. Widespread interest in the benefits of SOC sequestration has brought this issue to the fore in the development of US and international climate policy. Here, we review the challenges to documenting changes in SOC stocks, how policy decisions influence offset documentation requirements, and the benefits and drawbacks of different sampling strategies and extrapolation methods.

Evaluating responses to land degradation mitigation measures in Southern Italy

The main factors affecting environmental sensitivity to degradation are soil, vegetation, climate and management, through either their intrinsic characteristics or by their interaction on the landscape. Different levels of degradation risks may be observed in response to particular combinations of the aforementioned factors. For instance, the combination of inappropriate management practices and intrinsically weak soil conditions will result in a severe degradation of the environment, while the combination of the same type of management with better soil conditions may lead to negligible degradation.The aim of this study was to identify factors and their impact on land degradation processes in three areas of the Basilicata region (southern Italy) using a procedure that couples environmental indices, GIS and crop-soil simulation models. Areas prone to desertification were first identified using the Environmental Sensitive Areas (ESA) procedure. An analysis for identifying the weight that each of the contributing factor (climate, soil, vegetation, management) had on the ESA was carried out using GIS techniques. The SALUS model was successfully executed to identify the management practices that could lead to better soil conditions to enhance land use sustainability. The best management practices were found to be those that minimized soil disturbance and increased soil organic carbon. Two alternative scenarios with improved soil quality and subsequently improving soil water holding capacity were used as mitigation measures. The ESA were recalculated and the effects of the mitigation measures suggested by the model were assessed. The new ESA showed a significant reduction on land degradation.

Child characteristics associated with delay of gratification in children with Down syndrome

Aim: Children with Down syndrome have been identified as having difficulty delaying gratification when compared to mental age matched children who are developing typically. This study investigated the association between individual characteristics hypopthesized to be associated with ability to delay as well as the strategies children used in a waiting task. Method: Thirty-two children with Down syndrome and 50 typically developing children matched for mental age completed the tasks. Observations of their behaviour while waiting were video-recorded for later analysis. In addition, parents completed questionnaires with respect to their child’s personality and behaviour. Results: Children with Down syndrome were significantly less able to delay gratification than the comparison group. Different patterns of association were found for the two groups between the observational and questionnaire measures and delay time. Conclusions: Children with Down syndrome have greater difficulty delaying gratification than would be predicted on the basis of their mental age. The contributions to delay appear to differ from those for typically developing children and these differences need to be considered when planning interventions for developing this skill

Strategy use of children with Down syndrome in a delay of gratification situation

Background: The capacity to delay gratification has been shown to be a very important developmental task for children who are developing typically. There is evidence that children with Down syndrome have more difficulty with a delay of gratification task than typically developing children of the same mental age. This study focused on the strategies children with Down syndrome use while in a delay of gratification situation to ascertain if these contribute to the differences in delay times from those of typically developing children. Method: Thirty-two children with Down syndrome (15 females) and 50 typically developing children participated in the study. Children with Down syndrome had a mental age, as measured by the Stanford-Binet IV, between 36 and 66 months (M = 45.66). The typically developing children had a mean chronological age of 45.76 months. Children participated in a delay of gratification task where they were offered two or one small treats and asked which they preferred. They were then told that they could have the two treats if they waited for the researcher to return (an undisclosed time of 15 min). If they did not want to wait any longer they could call the researcher back but then they could have only one treat. Twenty-two of the children with Down syndrome and 43 of the typically developing children demonstrated understanding of the task and their data are included here. Sessions were videotaped for later analysis. Results: There were significant differences in the mean waiting times of the two groups. The mean of the waiting times for children with Down syndrome was 181.32 s (SD = 347.62) and was 440.21 s (SD = 377.59) for the typically developing children. Eighteen percent of the group with Down syndrome waited for the researcher to return in comparison to 35% of the typically developing group. Sixty-four percent of children with Down syndrome called the researcher back and the remainder (18%) violated. In the typically developing group 37% called the researcher back and 28% violated. The mean waiting time for the group of children with Down syndrome who called the researcher back was 24 s. Examination of strategy use in this group was therefore very limited. There appeared to be quite similar strategy use across the groups who waited the full 15 min. Conclusions: These results confirm the difficulty children with Down syndrome have in delaying gratification. Teaching strategies for waiting, using information drawn from the behaviours of children who are developing typically may be a useful undertaking. Examination of other contributors to delay ability (e.g., language skills) is also likely to be helpful in understanding the difficulties demonstrated in delaying gratification.

Ensemble-based DDoS detection and mitigation model

This work-in-progress paper presents an ensemble-based model for detecting and mitigating Distributed Denial-of-Service (DDoS) attacks, and its partial implementation. The model utilises network traffic analysis and MIB (Management Information Base) server load analysis features for detecting a wide range of network and application layer DDoS attacks and distinguishing them from Flash Events. The proposed model will be evaluated against realistic synthetic network traffic generated using a software-based traffic generator that we have developed as part of this research. In this paper, we summarise our previous work, highlight the current work being undertaken along with preliminary results obtained and outline the future directions of our work.

Establishing initial trust in autonomous delay tolerant networks without centralised PKI

A Delay Tolerant Network (DTN) is one where nodes can be highly mobile, with long message delay times forming dynamic and fragmented networks. Traditional centralised network security is difficult to implement in such a network, therefore distributed security solutions are more desirable in DTN implementations. Establishing effective trust in distributed systems with no centralised Public Key Infrastructure (PKI) such as the Pretty Good Privacy (PGP) scheme usually requires human intervention. Our aim is to build and compare different de- centralised trust systems for implementation in autonomous DTN systems. In this paper, we utilise a key distribution model based on the Web of Trust principle, and employ a simple leverage of common friends trust system to establish initial trust in autonomous DTN’s. We compare this system with two other methods of autonomously establishing initial trust by introducing a malicious node and measuring the distribution of malicious and fake keys. Our results show that the new trust system not only mitigates the distribution of fake malicious keys by 40% at the end of the simulation, but it also improved key distribution between nodes. This paper contributes a comparison of three de-centralised trust systems that can be employed in autonomous DTN systems.

Automated risk mitigation in business processes

This paper proposes a concrete approach for the automatic mitigation of risks that are detected during process enactment. Given a process model exposed to risks, e.g. a financial process exposed to the risk of approval fraud, we enact this process and as soon as the likelihood of the associated risk(s) is no longer tolerable, we generate a set of possible mitigation actions to reduce the risks' likelihood, ideally annulling the risks altogether. A mitigation action is a sequence of controlled changes applied to the running process instance, taking into account a snapshot of the process resources and data, and the current status of the system in which the process is executed. These actions are proposed as recommendations to help process administrators mitigate process-related risks as soon as they arise. The approach has been implemented in the YAWL environment and its performance evaluated. The results show that it is possible to mitigate process-related risks within a few minutes.

User facilitated congestion and attack mitigation

The IEEE Wireless LAN standard has been a true success story by enabling convenient, efficient and low-cost access to broadband networks for both private and professional use. However, the increasing density and uncoordinated operation of wireless access points, combined with constantly growing traffic demands have started hurting the users' quality of experience. On the other hand, the emerging ubiquity of wireless access has placed it at the center of attention for network attacks, which not only raises users' concerns on security but also indirectly affects connection quality due to proactive measures against security attacks. In this work, we introduce an integrated solution to congestion avoidance and attack mitigation problems through cooperation among wireless access points. The proposed solution implements a Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP) as an intelligent distributed control system. By successfully differentiating resource hampering attacks from overload cases, the control system takes an appropriate action in each detected anomaly case without disturbing the quality of service for end users. The proposed solution is fully implemented on a small-scale testbed, on which we present our observations and demonstrate the effectiveness of the system to detect and alleviate both attack and congestion situations.

Using static analysis for automatic assessment and mitigation of unwanted and malicious activities within Android applications

In the last decade, smartphones have gained widespread usage. Since the advent of online application stores, hundreds of thousands of applications have become instantly available to millions of smart-phone users. Within the Android ecosystem, application security is governed by digital signatures and a list of coarse-grained permissions. However, this mechanism is not fine-grained enough to provide the user with a sufficient means of control of the applications' activities. Abuse of highly sensible private information such as phone numbers without users' notice is the result. We show that there is a high frequency of privacy leaks even among widely popular applications. Together with the fact that the majority of the users are not proficient in computer security, this presents a challenge to the engineers developing security solutions for the platform. Our contribution is twofold: first, we propose a service which is able to assess Android Market applications via static analysis and provide detailed, but readable reports to the user. Second, we describe a means to mitigate security and privacy threats by automated reverse-engineering and refactoring binary application packages according to the users' security preferences.

Livestock production in a changing climate : adaptation and mitigation research in Australia

Climate change presents a range of challenges for animal agriculture in Australia. Livestock production will be affected by changes in temperature and water availability through impacts on pasture and forage crop quantity and quality, feed-grain production and price, and disease and pest distributions. This paper provides an overview of these impacts and the broader effects on landscape functionality, with a focus on recent research on effects of increasing temperature, changing rainfall patterns, and increased climate variability on animal health, growth, and reproduction, including through heat stress, and potential adaptation strategies. The rate of adoption of adaptation strategies by livestock producers will depend on perceptions of the uncertainty in projected climate and regional-scale impacts and associated risk. However, management changes adopted by farmers in parts of Australia during recent extended drought and associated heatwaves, trends consistent with long-term predicted climate patterns, provide some insights into the capacity for practical adaptation strategies. Animal production systems will also be significantly affected by climate change policy and national targets to address greenhouse gas emissions, since livestock are estimated to contribute ~10% of Australia’s total emissions and 8–11% of global emissions, with additional farm emissions associated with activities such as feed production. More than two-thirds of emissions are attributed to ruminant animals. This paper discusses the challenges and opportunities facing livestock industries in Australia in adapting to and mitigating climate change. It examines the research needed to better define practical options to reduce the emissions intensity of livestock products, enhance adaptation opportunities, and support the continued contribution of animal agriculture to Australia’s economy, environment, and regional communities.

Brownfield re-development : Perceptions and risk mitigation strategies

Scarcity of large parcels of land in well-serviced areas has motivated people to re-develop brownfield land. Most of brownfield land has high risk of contamination from wide range of industrial activities such as gas works, factories, railway land and waste tips. In addition, people who live in brownfield re-development areas may be exposed to health hazards. This paper discusses public perceptions on the brownfield sites and also the risk and mitigation strategy to promote brownfield re-development. Data is gathered from face to face survey of fifty respondents who work in Brisbane Central Business District (CBD) and interview with an expert on remediation of contaminated land. From this preliminary study, it is found that majority of the population are not aware of any brownfield sites near their residence and those who are aware showed very little concern on their proximity to the site. Further discussion on the paper based on a simple cross tabulation analysis. The main risk mitigation strategy of re-development of brownfield site is by updating the registration through Environmental Management Register (EMR) and Contaminated Land Register (CLR). In addition, insurance may offer to cover cost overruns on remediation cost.

A Bayesian approach to the determination of ignition delay

A novel in-cylinder pressure method for determining ignition delay has been proposed and demonstrated. This method proposes a new Bayesian statistical model to resolve the start of combustion, defined as being the point at which the band-pass in-cylinder pressure deviates from background noise and the combustion resonance begins. Further, it is demonstrated that this method is still accurate in situations where there is noise present. The start of combustion can be resolved for each cycle without the need for ad hoc methods such as cycle averaging. Therefore, this method allows for analysis of consecutive cycles and inter-cycle variability studies. Ignition delay obtained by this method and by the net rate of heat release have been shown to give good agreement. However, the use of combustion resonance to determine the start of combustion is preferable over the net rate of heat release method because it does not rely on knowledge of heat losses and will still function accurately in the presence of noise. Results for a six-cylinder turbo-charged common-rail diesel engine run with neat diesel fuel at full, three quarters and half load have been presented. Under these conditions the ignition delay was shown to increase as the load was decreased with a significant increase in ignition delay at half load, when compared with three quarter and full loads.