Surrogate science: The idol of a universal method for scientific inference

The application of statistics to science is not a neutral act. Statistical tools have shaped and were also shaped by its objects. In the social sciences, statistical methods fundamentally changed research practice, making statistical inference its centerpiece. At the same time, textbook writers in the social sciences have transformed rivaling statistical systems into an apparently monolithic method that could be used mechanically. The idol of a universal method for scientific inference has been worshipped since the "inference revolution" of the 1950s. Because no such method has ever been found, surrogates have been created, most notably the quest for significant p values. This form of surrogate science fosters delusions and borderline cheating and has done much harm, creating, for one, a flood of irreproducible results. Proponents of the "Bayesian revolution" should be wary of chasing yet another chimera: an apparently universal inference procedure. A better path would be to promote both an understanding of the various devices in the "statistical toolbox" and informed judgment to select among these.

A parameterization method for the computation of invariant tori and their whiskers in quasi-periodic maps: explorations and mechanisms for the breakdown of hyperbolicity

In two previous papers [J. Differential Equations, 228 (2006), pp. 530 579; Discrete Contin. Dyn. Syst. Ser. B, 6 (2006), pp. 1261 1300] we have developed fast algorithms for the computations of invariant tori in quasi‐periodic systems and developed theorems that assess their accuracy. In this paper, we study the results of implementing these algorithms and study their performance in actual implementations. More importantly, we note that, due to the speed of the algorithms and the theoretical developments about their reliability, we can compute with confidence invariant objects close to the breakdown of their hyperbolicity properties. This allows us to identify a mechanism of loss of hyperbolicity and measure some of its quantitative regularities. We find that some systems lose hyperbolicity because the stable and unstable bundles approach each other but the Lyapunov multipliers remain away from 1. We find empirically that, close to the breakdown, the distances between the invariant bundles and the Lyapunov multipliers which are natural measures of hyperbolicity depend on the parameters, with power laws with universal exponents. We also observe that, even if the rigorous justifications in [J. Differential Equations, 228 (2006), pp. 530-579] are developed only for hyperbolic tori, the algorithms work also for elliptic tori in Hamiltonian systems. We can continue these tori and also compute some bifurcations at resonance which may lead to the existence of hyperbolic tori with nonorientable bundles. We compute manifolds tangent to nonorientable bundles.

Reconstruction of 3D Planar Objects with Partial Occlusion

Kolmiulotteisten kappaleiden rekonstruktio on yksi konenäön haastavimmista ongelmista, koska kappaleiden kolmiulotteisia etäisyyksiä ei voida selvittää yhdestä kaksiulotteisesta kuvasta. Ongelma voidaan ratkaista stereonäön avulla, jossa näkymän kolmiulotteinen rakenne päätellään usean kuvan perusteella. Tämä lähestymistapa mahdollistaa kuitenkin vain rekonstruktion niille kappaleiden osille, jotka näkyvät vähintään kahdessa kuvassa. Piilossa olevien osien rekonstruktio ei ole mahdollista pelkästään stereonäön avulla. Tässä työssä on kehitetty uusi menetelmä osittain piilossa olevien kolmiulotteisten tasomaisten kappaleiden rekonstruktioon. Menetelmän avulla voidaan selvittää hyvällä tarkkuudella tasomaisista pinnoista koostuvan kappaleen muoto ja paikka käyttäen kahta kuvaa kappaleesta. Menetelmä perustuu epipolaarigeometriaan, jonka avulla selvitetään molemmissa kuvissa näkyvät kappaleiden osat. Osittain piilossa olevien piirteiden rekonstruointi suoritetaan käyttämäen stereonäköä sekä tietoa kappaleen rakenteesta. Esitettyä ratkaisua voitaisiin käyttää esimerkiksi kolmiulotteisten kappaleiden visualisointiin, robotin navigointiin tai esineentunnistukseen.

CNDOL: A fast and reliable method for the calculation of electronic properties of very large systems. Applications to retinal binding pocket in rhodopsin and gas phase porphine.

Very large molecular systems can be calculated with the so called CNDOL approximate Hamiltonians that have been developed by avoiding oversimplifications and only using a priori parameters and formulas from the simpler NDO methods. A new diagonal monoelectronic term named CNDOL/21 shows great consistency and easier SCF convergence when used together with an appropriate function for charge repulsion energies that is derived from traditional formulas. It is possible to obtain a priori molecular orbitals and electron excitation properties after the configuration interaction of single excited determinants with reliability, maintaining interpretative possibilities even being a simplified Hamiltonian. Tests with some unequivocal gas phase maxima of simple molecules (benzene, furfural, acetaldehyde, hexyl alcohol, methyl amine, 2,5 dimethyl 2,4 hexadiene, and ethyl sulfide) ratify the general quality of this approach in comparison with other methods. The calculation of large systems as porphine in gas phase and a model of the complete retinal binding pocket in rhodopsin with 622 basis functions on 280 atoms at the quantum mechanical level show reliability leading to a resulting first allowed transition in 483 nm, very similar to the known experimental value of 500 nm of "dark state." In this very important case, our model gives a central role in this excitation to a charge transfer from the neighboring Glu(-) counterion to the retinaldehyde polyene chain. Tests with gas phase maxima of some important molecules corroborate the reliability of CNDOL/2 Hamiltonians.

Optimized dark matter searches in deep observations of Segue 1 with MAGIC

We present the results of stereoscopic observations of the satellite galaxy Segue 1 with the MAGIC Telescopes, carried out between 2011 and 2013. With almost 160 hours of good-quality data, this is the deepest observational campaign on any dwarf galaxy performed so far in the very high energy range of the electromagnetic spectrum. We search this large data sample for signals of dark matter particles in the mass range between 100 GeV and 20 TeV. For this we use the full likelihood analysis method, which provides optimal sensitivity to characteristic gamma-ray spectral features, like those expected from dark matter annihilation or decay. In particular, we focus our search on gamma-rays produced from different final state Standard Model particles, annihilation with internal bremsstrahlung, monochromatic lines and box-shaped signals. Our results represent the most stringent constraints to the annihilation cross-section or decay lifetime obtained from observations of satellite galaxies, for masses above few hundred GeV. In particular, our strongest limit (95% confidence level) corresponds to a ~ 500 GeV dark matter particle annihilating into τ+τ−, and is of order langleσannvrangle simeq 1.2 × 10−24 cm3 s−1 a factor ~ 40 above the langleσannvrangle simeq thermal value.

Experiences in using a structured method in finding and defining new innovations: the strategic options approach

Investment decision-making on far-reaching innovation ideas is one of the key challenges practitioners and academics face in the field of innovation management. However, the management practices and theories strongly rely on evaluation systems that do not fit in well with this setting. These systems and practices normally cannot capture the value of future opportunities under high uncertainty because they ignore the firm’s potential for growth and flexibility. Real options theory and options-based methods have been offered as a solution to facilitate decision-making on highly uncertain investment objects. Much of the uncertainty inherent in these investment objects is attributable to unknown future events. In this setting, real options theory and methods have faced some challenges. First, the theory and its applications have largely been limited to market-priced real assets. Second, the options perspective has not proved as useful as anticipated because the tools it offers are perceived to be too complicated for managerial use. Third, there are challenges related to the type of uncertainty existing real options methods can handle: they are primarily limited to parametric uncertainty. Nevertheless, the theory is considered promising in the context of far-reaching and strategically important innovation ideas. The objective of this dissertation is to clarify the potential of options-based methodology in the identification of innovation opportunities. The constructive research approach gives new insights into the development potential of real options theory under non-parametric and closeto- radical uncertainty. The distinction between real options and strategic options is presented as an explanans for the discovered limitations of the theory. The findings offer managers a new means of assessing future innovation ideas based on the frameworks constructed during the course of the study.

A Soft Contact Collision Method For Real-Time Simulation of Triangularized Geometries in Multibody Dynamics

When modeling machines in their natural working environment collisions become a very important feature in terms of simulation accuracy. By expanding the simulation to include the operation environment, the need for a general collision model that is able to handle a wide variety of cases has become central in the development of simulation environments. With the addition of the operating environment the challenges for the collision modeling method also change. More simultaneous contacts with more objects occur in more complicated situations. This means that the real-time requirement becomes more difficult to meet. Common problems in current collision modeling methods include for example dependency on the geometry shape or mesh density, calculation need increasing exponentially in respect to the number of contacts, the lack of a proper friction model and failures due to certain configurations like closed kinematic loops. All these problems mean that the current modeling methods will fail in certain situations. A method that would not fail in any situation is not very realistic but improvements can be made over the current methods.

Standardization of metachromatic staining method of myofibrillar ATPase activity of myosin to skeletal striated muscle of mules and donkeys

This study aims at standardizing the pre-incubation and incubation pH and temperature used in the metachromatic staining method of myofibrillar ATPase activity of myosin (mATPase) used for asses and mules. Twenty four donkeys and 10 mules, seven females and three males, were used in the study. From each animal, fragments from the Gluteus medius muscle were collected and percutaneous muscle biopsy was performed using a 6.0-mm Bergström-type needle. In addition to the metachromatic staining method of mATPase, the technique of nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide tetrazolium reductase (NADH-TR) was also performed to confirm the histochemical data. The histochemical result of mATPase for acidic pre-incubation (pH=4.50) and alkaline incubation (pH=10.50), at a temperature of 37ºC, yielded the best differentiation of fibers stained with toluidine blue. Muscle fibers were identified according to the following colors: type I (oxidative, light blue), type IIA (oxidative-glycolytic, intermediate blue) and type IIX (glycolytic, dark blue). There are no reports in the literature regarding the characterization and distribution of different types of muscle fibers used by donkeys and mules when performing traction work, cargo transportation, endurance sports (horseback riding) and marching competitions. Therefore, this study is the first report on the standardization of the mATPase technique for donkeys and mules.

Segmentation of overlapping convex objects

This thesis presents a framework for segmentation of clustered overlapping convex objects. The proposed approach is based on a three-step framework in which the tasks of seed point extraction, contour evidence extraction, and contour estimation are addressed. The state-of-art techniques for each step were studied and evaluated using synthetic and real microscopic image data. According to obtained evaluation results, a method combining the best performers in each step was presented. In the proposed method, Fast Radial Symmetry transform, edge-to-marker association algorithm and ellipse fitting are employed for seed point extraction, contour evidence extraction and contour estimation respectively. Using synthetic and real image data, the proposed method was evaluated and compared with two competing methods and the results showed a promising improvement over the competing methods, with high segmentation and size distribution estimation accuracy.

Development of Free Space Method for Material Characterisation and GPR Study & A Case Study on Biological Samples

The thesis mainly focuses on material characterization in different environments: freely available samples taken in planar fonn, biological samples available in small quantities and buried objects.Free space method, finds many applications in the fields of industry, medicine and communication. As it is a non-contact method, it can be employed for monitoring the electrical properties of materials moving through a conveyor belt in real time. Also, measurement on such systems at high temperature is possible. NID theory can be applied to the characterization of thin films. Dielectric properties of thin films deposited on any dielectric substrate can be determined. ln chemical industry, the stages of a chemical reaction can be monitored online. Online monitoring will be more efficient as it saves time and avoids risk of sample collection.Dielectric contrast is one of the main factors, which decides the detectability of a system. lt could be noted that the two dielectric objects of same dielectric constant 3.2 (s, of plastic mine) placed in a medium of dielectric constant 2.56 (er of sand) could even be detected employing the time domain analysis of the reflected signal. This type of detection finds strategic importance as it provides solution to the problem of clearance of non-metallic mines. The demining of these mines using the conventional techniques had been proved futile. The studies on the detection of voids and leakage in pipes find many applications.The determined electrical properties of tissues can be used for numerical modeling of cells, microwave imaging, SAR test etc. All these techniques need the accurate determination of dielectric constant. ln the modem world, the use of cellular and other wireless communication systems is booming up. At the same time people are concemed about the hazardous effects of microwaves on living cells. The effect is usually studied on human phantom models. The construction of the models requires the knowledge of the dielectric parameters of the various body tissues. lt is in this context that the present study gains significance. The case study on biological samples shows that the properties of normal and infected body tissues are different. Even though the change in the dielectric properties of infected samples from that of normal one may not be a clear evidence of an ailment, it is an indication of some disorder.ln medical field, the free space method may be adapted for imaging the biological samples. This method can also be used in wireless technology. Evaluation of electrical properties and attenuation of obstacles in the path of RF waves can be done using free waves. An intelligent system for controlling the power output or frequency depending on the feed back values of the attenuation may be developed.The simulation employed in GPR can be extended for the exploration of the effects due to the factors such as the different proportion of water content in the soil, the level and roughness of the soil etc on the reflected signal. This may find applications in geological explorations. ln the detection of mines, a state-of-the art technique for scanning and imaging an active mine field can be developed using GPR. The probing antenna can be attached to a robotic arm capable of three degrees of rotation and the whole detecting system can be housed in a military vehicle. In industry, a system based on the GPR principle can be developed for monitoring liquid or gas through a pipe, as pipe with and without the sample gives different reflection responses. lt may also be implemented for the online monitoring of different stages of extraction and purification of crude petroleum in a plant.Since biological samples show fluctuation in the dielectric nature with time and other physiological conditions, more investigation in this direction should be done. The infected cells at various stages of advancement and the normal cells should be analysed. The results from these comparative studies can be utilized for the detection of the onset of such diseases. Studying the properties of infected tissues at different stages, the threshold of detectability of infected cells can be determined.

Computer Analysis of Visual Properties of Curved Objects

A method is presented for the visual analysis of objects by computer. It is particularly well suited for opaque objects with smoothly curved surfaces. The method extracts information about the object's surface properties, including measures of its specularity, texture, and regularity. It also aids in determining the object's shape. The application of this method to a simple recognition task ??e recognition of fruit ?? discussed. The results on a more complex smoothly curved object, a human face, are also considered.

The effectiveness of assessment learning objects produced using pair programming

Pair Programming is a technique from the software development method eXtreme Programming (XP) whereby two programmers work closely together to develop a piece of software. A similar approach has been used to develop a set of Assessment Learning Objects (ALO). Three members of academic staff have developed a set of ALOs for a total of three different modules (two with overlapping content). In each case a pair programming approach was taken to the development of the ALO. In addition to demonstrating the efficiency of this approach in terms of staff time spent developing the ALOs, a statistical analysis of the outcomes for students who made use of the ALOs is used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the ALOs produced via this method.

An automated calibration method for non-see-through head mounted displays

Accurate calibration of a head mounted display (HMD) is essential both for research on the visual system and for realistic interaction with virtual objects. Yet, existing calibration methods are time consuming and depend on human judgements, making them error prone. The methods are also limited to optical see-through HMDs. Building on our existing HMD calibration method [1], we show here how it is possible to calibrate a non-see-through HMD. A camera is placed inside an HMD displaying an image of a regular grid, which is captured by the camera. The HMD is then removed and the camera, which remains fixed in position, is used to capture images of a tracked calibration object in various positions. The locations of image features on the calibration object are then re-expressed in relation to the HMD grid. This allows established camera calibration techniques to be used to recover estimates of the display’s intrinsic parameters (width, height, focal length) and extrinsic parameters (optic centre and orientation of the principal ray). We calibrated a HMD in this manner in both see-through and in non-see-through modes and report the magnitude of the errors between real image features and reprojected features. Our calibration method produces low reprojection errors and involves no error-prone human measurements.

Extending the friction cone algorithm for arbitrary polygon based haptic objects

Most haptic environments are based on single point interactions whereas in practice, object manipulation requires multiple contact points between the object, fingers, thumb and palm. The Friction Cone Algorithm was developed specifically to work well in a multi-finger haptic environment where object manipulation would occur. However, the Friction Cone Algorithm has two shortcomings when applied to polygon meshes: there is no means of transitioning polygon boundaries or feeling non-convex edges. In order to overcome these deficiencies, Face Directed Connection Graphs have been developed as well as a robust method for applying friction to non-convex edges. Both these extensions are described herein, as well as the implementation issues associated with them.

Complete robot-eye calibration without special calibration objects

A robot mounted camera is useful in many machine vision tasks as it allows control over view direction and position. In this paper we report a technique for calibrating both the robot and the camera using only a single corresponding point. All existing head-eye calibration systems we have encountered rely on using pre-calibrated robots, pre- calibrated cameras, special calibration objects or combinations of these. Our method avoids using large scale non-linear optimizations by recovering the parameters in small dependent groups. This is done by performing a series of planned, but initially uncalibrated robot movements. Many of the kinematic parameters are obtained using only camera views in which the calibration feature is at, or near the image center, thus avoiding errors which could be introduced by lens distortion. The calibration is shown to be both stable and accurate. The robotic system we use consists of camera with pan-tilt capability mounted on a Cartesian robot, providing a total of 5 degrees of freedom.