Temperature and precipitation effects on wheat yield across a European transect: a crop model ensemble analysis using impact response surfaces

This study explored the utility of the impact response surface (IRS) approach for investigating model ensemble crop yield responses under a large range of changes in climate. IRSs of spring and winter wheat Triticum aestivum yields were constructed from a 26-member ensemble of process-based crop simulation models for sites in Finland, Germany and Spain across a latitudinal transect. The sensitivity of modelled yield to systematic increments of changes in temperature (-2 to +9°C) and precipitation (-50 to +50%) was tested by modifying values of baseline (1981 to 2010) daily weather, with CO2 concentration fixed at 360 ppm. The IRS approach offers an effective method of portraying model behaviour under changing climate as well as advantages for analysing, comparing and presenting results from multi-model ensemble simulations. Though individual model behaviour occasionally departed markedly from the average, ensemble median responses across sites and crop varieties indicated that yields decline with higher temperatures and decreased precipitation and increase with higher precipitation. Across the uncertainty ranges defined for the IRSs, yields were more sensitive to temperature than precipitation changes at the Finnish site while sensitivities were mixed at the German and Spanish sites. Precipitation effects diminished under higher temperature changes. While the bivariate and multi-model characteristics of the analysis impose some limits to interpretation, the IRS approach nonetheless provides additional insights into sensitivities to inter-model and inter-annual variability. Taken together, these sensitivities may help to pinpoint processes such as heat stress, vernalisation or drought effects requiring refinement in future model development.

Comparison of Multivariate and Univariate Models for Genetic Evaluation of Milk Yield based on Test Day Data

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 62H12, 62P99

Use of short-term breath measures to estimate daily methane production by cattle

Methods to measure enteric methane (CH4) emissions from individual ruminants in their production environment are required to validate emission inventories and verify mitigation claims. Estimates of daily methane production (DMP) based on consolidated short-term emission measurements are developing, but method verification is required. Two cattle experiments were undertaken to test the hypothesis that DMP estimated by averaging multiple short-term breath measures of methane emission rate did not differ from DMP measured in respiration chambers (RC). Short-term emission rates were obtained from a GreenFeed Emissions Monitoring (GEM) unit, which measured emission rate while cattle consumed a dispensed supplement. In experiment 1 (Expt. 1), four non-lactating cattle (LW=518 kg) were adapted for 18 days then measured for six consecutive periods. Each period consisted of 2 days of ad libitum intake and GEM emission measurement followed by 1 day in the RC. A prototype GEM unit releasing water as an attractant (GEM water) was also evaluated in Expt. 1. Experiment 2 (Expt. 2) was a larger study based on similar design with 10 cattle (LW=365 kg), adapted for 21 days and GEM measurement was extended to 3 days in each of the six periods. In Expt. 1, there was no difference in DMP estimated by the GEM unit relative to the RC (209.7 v. 215.1 g CH4/day) and no difference between these methods in methane yield (MY, 22.7 v. 23.7 g CH4/kg of dry matter intake, DMI). In Expt. 2, the correlation between GEM and RC measures of DMP and MY were assessed using 95% confidence intervals, with no difference in DMP or MY between methods and high correlations between GEM and RC measures for DMP (r=0.85; 215 v. 198 g CH4/day SEM=3.0) and for MY (r=0.60; 23.8 v. 22.1 g CH4/kg DMI SEM=0.42). When data from both experiments was combined neither DMP nor MY differed between GEM- and RC-based measures (P>0.05). GEM water-based estimates of DMP and MY were lower than RC and GEM (P<0.05). Cattle accessed the GEM water unit with similar frequency to the GEM unit (2.8 v. 3.5 times/day, respectively) but eructation frequency was reduced from 1.31 times/min (GEM) to once every 2.6 min (GEM water). These studies confirm the hypothesis that DMP estimated by averaging multiple short-term breath measures of methane emission rate using GEM does not differ from measures of DMP obtained from RCs. Further, combining many short-term measures of methane production rate during supplement consumption provides an estimate of DMP, which can be usefully applied in estimating MY.

Evaluation of water use, yield and water productivity of a high-density orchard (cv. Cobrançosa) subjected to different irrigation regimes – An account of four years

The impact of different irrigation scheduling regimes on the water use, yield and water productivity from a high-density olive grove cv. Cobrançosa in southern Portugal was assessed during the irrigation seasons of 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014. The experiments were conducted in a commercial olive orchard at the Herdade Álamo de Cima, near Évora (38o 29' 49.44'' N, 7o 45' 8.83'' W; alt. 75 m) in southern Alentejo, Portugal. The orchard was established with 10-year old Cobrançosa trees in grids of 8.0 x 4.2 m (300 trees ha-1) in the E-W direction, and experiments conducted on a shallow sandy loam Regosoil Haplic soil. From mid-May to the end of September the orchard was irrigated and three plots were subjected to one of two irrigation treatments: a control treatment A, irrigated to replace 100% ETc, a moderate deficit irrigation treatment B irrigated to 70% of ETc, and a more severe deficit irrigation treatment C that provided for approximately 50% of ETc. Daily tree transpiration rates were obtained by continuously monitoring of sap flow in representative trees per treatment. Among the irrigated treatments, water use efficiency (WUE, ratio of water used to irrigation- water applied) of treatment C was the highest, with a value of 0.89, being treatment B slightly lower, with a WUE of 0.76. Olive harvest for 2012 was an exceptional “on year”. Bearing yields showed contrasting differences within years where an “on year” was followed by an “off year”. In 2011 and 2012 treatment B yields were 41 and 50% higher than treatment C, respectively. In 2013 treatment B yield was 45% higher than yield of the fully irrigated treatment A, and treatment C showed practically the same yield than treatment A. In the “on year” of 2014 treatment B averaged 48% higher yield than treatment C. Treatment B farm irrigation water productivity (WPI-Farm, ratio of yield to water applied) was the highest among all treatments. Treatment A showed the lowest conversion efficiency of all treatments, indicating treatment B as the adequate deficit irrigation treatment for our Cobrançosa orchard

Yield-factor volatility models

The term structure of interest rates is often summarized using a handful of yield factors that capture shifts in the shape of the yield curve. In this paper, we develop a comprehensive model for volatility dynamics in the level, slope, and curvature of the yield curve that simultaneously includes level and GARCH effects along with regime shifts. We show that the level of the short rate is useful in modeling the volatility of the three yield factors and that there are significant GARCH effects present even after including a level effect. Further, we find that allowing for regime shifts in the factor volatilities dramatically improves the model’s fit and strengthens the level effect. We also show that a regime-switching model with level and GARCH effects provides the best out-of-sample forecasting performance of yield volatility. We argue that the auxiliary models often used to estimate term structure models with simulation-based estimation techniques should be consistent with the main features of the yield curve that are identified by our model.

Bushfire responsive architecture : strategies for reconciling bushfire and biodiversity with daily life

My perspective on the problems associated with building in bushfire prone landscapes comes from 12 years of study of the biophysical and cultural landscapes in the Great Southern Region of WA which resulted in the design and construction of the ‘Hhouse’ at Bremer Bay. The house was developed using a ‘ground up’ approach whereby I conducted a topographical survey and worked with a local botanist and a bushfire risk consultant to ascertain the level of threat that fire presented to this particular site. My intention from the outset however, was not to design a bushfire resistant house per se, but to develop a design which would place the owners in close proximity to the highly biodiverse heath vegetation of the site. I was also seeking a means—through architectural design—of linking the patterns of usage of the house with other site specific conditions related to the prevailing winds, solar orientation and seasonal change.

Improved functional ability and independence in activities of daily living for older adults at high risk of hospital readmission : a randomised controlled trial

Objective: During hospitalisation older people often experience functional decline which impacts on their future independence. The objective of this study was to evaluate a multifaceted transitional care intervention including home-based exercise strategies for at-risk older people on functional status, independence in activities of daily living, and walking ability. Methods: A randomised controlled trial was undertaken in a metropolitan hospital in Australia with 128 patients (64 intervention, 64 control) aged over 65 years with an acute medical admission and at least one risk factor for hospital readmission. The intervention group received an individually tailored program for exercise and follow-up care which was commenced in hospital and included regular visits in hospital by a physiotherapist and a Registered Nurse, a home visit following discharge, and regular telephone follow-up for 24 weeks following discharge. The program was designed to improve health promoting behaviours, strength, stability, endurance and mobility. Data were collected at baseline, then 4, 12 and 24 weeks following discharge using the Index of Activities of Daily Living (ADL), Instrumental Index of Activities of Daily Living (IADL), and the Walking Impairment Questionnaire (Modified). Results: Significant improvements were found in the intervention group in IADL scores (p<.001), ADL scores (p<.001), and WIQ scale scores (p<.001) in comparison to the control group. The greatest improvements were found in the first four weeks following discharge. Conclusions: Early introduction of a transitional model of care incorporating a tailored exercise program and regular telephone follow-up for hospitalised at-risk older adults can improve independence and functional ability.

Daily disposable contact lens prescribing around the world

Daily disposable contact lenses were introduced into the market 16 years ago. Data that we have gathered from annual contact lens fitting surveys conducted in Australia, Canada, Japan, The Netherlands, Norway, the UK and the USA between 2000 and 2008 indicates an overall increase in daily disposable lens fitting during this period. Daily disposable lenses are especially popular in Japan, Norway and the UK. There is a trend for these lenses to be fitted on a part-time basis. Males are over-represented in daily disposable lens fitting—a trend that is especially evident in Canada. Daily disposable lens wearers are about two years younger than wearers of reusable lenses in Japan and The Netherlands. The convenience and health benefits of daily disposable lenses are expected to fuel continued growth in this sector.

An investigation of the relationship between subjective sleep quality, loneliness and mood in an Australian sample: Can daily routine explain the links?

Background: Loneliness and low mood are associated with significant negative health outcomes including poor sleep, but the strength of the evidence underlying these associations varies. There is strong evidence that poor sleep quality and low mood are linked, but only emerging evidence that loneliness and poor sleep are associated. Aims: To independently replicate the finding that loneliness and poor subjective sleep quality are associated and to extend past research by investigating lifestyle regularity as a possible mediator of relationships, since lifestyle regularity has been linked to loneliness and poor sleep. Methods: Using a cross-sectional design, 97 adults completed standardized measures of loneliness, lifestyle regularity, subjective sleep quality and mood. Results: Loneliness was a significant predictor of sleep quality. Lifestyle regularity was not a predictor of, nor associated with, mood, sleep quality or loneliness. Conclusions: This study provides an important independent replication of the association between poor sleep and loneliness. However, the mechanism underlying this link remains unclear. A theoretically plausible mechanism for this link, lifestyle regularity, does not explain the relationship between loneliness and poor sleep. The nexus between loneliness and poor sleep is unlikely to be broken by altering the social rhythm of patients who present with poor sleep and loneliness.