Application of data mining techniques in the prediction of coronary artery disease : use of anaesthesia time-series and patient risk factor data

The high morbidity and mortality associated with atherosclerotic coronary vascular disease (CVD) and its complications are being lessened by the increased knowledge of risk factors, effective preventative measures and proven therapeutic interventions. However, significant CVD morbidity remains and sudden cardiac death continues to be a presenting feature for some subsequently diagnosed with CVD. Coronary vascular disease is also the leading cause of anaesthesia related complications. Stress electrocardiography/exercise testing is predictive of 10 year risk of CVD events and the cardiovascular variables used to score this test are monitored peri-operatively. Similar physiological time-series datasets are being subjected to data mining methods for the prediction of medical diagnoses and outcomes. This study aims to find predictors of CVD using anaesthesia time-series data and patient risk factor data. Several pre-processing and predictive data mining methods are applied to this data. Physiological time-series data related to anaesthetic procedures are subjected to pre-processing methods for removal of outliers, calculation of moving averages as well as data summarisation and data abstraction methods. Feature selection methods of both wrapper and filter types are applied to derived physiological time-series variable sets alone and to the same variables combined with risk factor variables. The ability of these methods to identify subsets of highly correlated but non-redundant variables is assessed. The major dataset is derived from the entire anaesthesia population and subsets of this population are considered to be at increased anaesthesia risk based on their need for more intensive monitoring (invasive haemodynamic monitoring and additional ECG leads). Because of the unbalanced class distribution in the data, majority class under-sampling and Kappa statistic together with misclassification rate and area under the ROC curve (AUC) are used for evaluation of models generated using different prediction algorithms. The performance based on models derived from feature reduced datasets reveal the filter method, Cfs subset evaluation, to be most consistently effective although Consistency derived subsets tended to slightly increased accuracy but markedly increased complexity. The use of misclassification rate (MR) for model performance evaluation is influenced by class distribution. This could be eliminated by consideration of the AUC or Kappa statistic as well by evaluation of subsets with under-sampled majority class. The noise and outlier removal pre-processing methods produced models with MR ranging from 10.69 to 12.62 with the lowest value being for data from which both outliers and noise were removed (MR 10.69). For the raw time-series dataset, MR is 12.34. Feature selection results in reduction in MR to 9.8 to 10.16 with time segmented summary data (dataset F) MR being 9.8 and raw time-series summary data (dataset A) being 9.92. However, for all time-series only based datasets, the complexity is high. For most pre-processing methods, Cfs could identify a subset of correlated and non-redundant variables from the time-series alone datasets but models derived from these subsets are of one leaf only. MR values are consistent with class distribution in the subset folds evaluated in the n-cross validation method. For models based on Cfs selected time-series derived and risk factor (RF) variables, the MR ranges from 8.83 to 10.36 with dataset RF_A (raw time-series data and RF) being 8.85 and dataset RF_F (time segmented time-series variables and RF) being 9.09. The models based on counts of outliers and counts of data points outside normal range (Dataset RF_E) and derived variables based on time series transformed using Symbolic Aggregate Approximation (SAX) with associated time-series pattern cluster membership (Dataset RF_ G) perform the least well with MR of 10.25 and 10.36 respectively. For coronary vascular disease prediction, nearest neighbour (NNge) and the support vector machine based method, SMO, have the highest MR of 10.1 and 10.28 while logistic regression (LR) and the decision tree (DT) method, J48, have MR of 8.85 and 9.0 respectively. DT rules are most comprehensible and clinically relevant. The predictive accuracy increase achieved by addition of risk factor variables to time-series variable based models is significant. The addition of time-series derived variables to models based on risk factor variables alone is associated with a trend to improved performance. Data mining of feature reduced, anaesthesia time-series variables together with risk factor variables can produce compact and moderately accurate models able to predict coronary vascular disease. Decision tree analysis of time-series data combined with risk factor variables yields rules which are more accurate than models based on time-series data alone. The limited additional value provided by electrocardiographic variables when compared to use of risk factors alone is similar to recent suggestions that exercise electrocardiography (exECG) under standardised conditions has limited additional diagnostic value over risk factor analysis and symptom pattern. The effect of the pre-processing used in this study had limited effect when time-series variables and risk factor variables are used as model input. In the absence of risk factor input, the use of time-series variables after outlier removal and time series variables based on physiological variable values’ being outside the accepted normal range is associated with some improvement in model performance.

Novel analytical and numerical methods for solving fractional dynamical systems

During the past three decades, the subject of fractional calculus (that is, calculus of integrals and derivatives of arbitrary order) has gained considerable popularity and importance, mainly due to its demonstrated applications in numerous diverse and widespread fields in science and engineering. For example, fractional calculus has been successfully applied to problems in system biology, physics, chemistry and biochemistry, hydrology, medicine, and finance. In many cases these new fractional-order models are more adequate than the previously used integer-order models, because fractional derivatives and integrals enable the description of the memory and hereditary properties inherent in various materials and processes that are governed by anomalous diffusion. Hence, there is a growing need to find the solution behaviour of these fractional differential equations. However, the analytic solutions of most fractional differential equations generally cannot be obtained. As a consequence, approximate and numerical techniques are playing an important role in identifying the solution behaviour of such fractional equations and exploring their applications. The main objective of this thesis is to develop new effective numerical methods and supporting analysis, based on the finite difference and finite element methods, for solving time, space and time-space fractional dynamical systems involving fractional derivatives in one and two spatial dimensions. A series of five published papers and one manuscript in preparation will be presented on the solution of the space fractional diffusion equation, space fractional advectiondispersion equation, time and space fractional diffusion equation, time and space fractional Fokker-Planck equation with a linear or non-linear source term, and fractional cable equation involving two time fractional derivatives, respectively. One important contribution of this thesis is the demonstration of how to choose different approximation techniques for different fractional derivatives. Special attention has been paid to the Riesz space fractional derivative, due to its important application in the field of groundwater flow, system biology and finance. We present three numerical methods to approximate the Riesz space fractional derivative, namely the L1/ L2-approximation method, the standard/shifted Gr¨unwald method, and the matrix transform method (MTM). The first two methods are based on the finite difference method, while the MTM allows discretisation in space using either the finite difference or finite element methods. Furthermore, we prove the equivalence of the Riesz fractional derivative and the fractional Laplacian operator under homogeneous Dirichlet boundary conditions – a result that had not previously been established. This result justifies the aforementioned use of the MTM to approximate the Riesz fractional derivative. After spatial discretisation, the time-space fractional partial differential equation is transformed into a system of fractional-in-time differential equations. We then investigate numerical methods to handle time fractional derivatives, be they Caputo type or Riemann-Liouville type. This leads to new methods utilising either finite difference strategies or the Laplace transform method for advancing the solution in time. The stability and convergence of our proposed numerical methods are also investigated. Numerical experiments are carried out in support of our theoretical analysis. We also emphasise that the numerical methods we develop are applicable for many other types of fractional partial differential equations.

Static shunt and series compensations of an SMIB system using flying capacitor multilevel inverter

The flying capacitor multilevel inverter (FCMLI) is a multiple voltage level inverter topology intended for high-power and high-voltage operations at low distortion. It uses capacitors, called flying capacitors, to clamp the voltage across the power semiconductor devices. A method for controlling the FCMLI is proposed which ensures that the flying capacitor voltages remain nearly constant using the preferential charging and discharging of these capacitors. A static synchronous compensator (STATCOM) and a static synchronous series compensator (SSSC) based on five-level flying capacitor inverters are proposed. Control schemes for both the FACTS controllers are developed and verified in terms of voltage control, power flow control, and power oscillation damping when installed in a single-machine infinite bus (SMIB) system. Simulation studies are performed using PSCAD/EMTDC to validate the efficacy of the control scheme and the FCMLI-based flexible alternating current transmission system (FACTS) controllers.

The relationship between deformity correction and clinical outcomes after thoracoscopic scoliosis surgery : a prospective series of one hundred patients

Prospective clinical case series of 100 patients receiving thoracoscopic anterior scoliosis correction surgery. The objective was to evaluate the relationship between clinical outcomes of thoracoscopic anterior scoliosis surgery and deformity correction using the Scoliosis Research Society (SRS) outcomes instrument questionnaire. The surgical treatment of scoliosis is quantitatively assessed in the clinic using radiographic measures of deformity correction, as well as the rib hump, but it is important to understand the extent to which these quantitative measures correlate with self-reported improvements in patients’ quality of life following surgery. A series of 100 consecutive adolescent idiopathic scoliosis patients received a single anterior rod via a thoracoscopic approach at the Mater Children’s Hospital, Brisbane, Australia. Patients completed SRS outcomes questionnaires pre-operatively and at 24 months post-operatively. There were 94 females and 6 males with a mean age of 16.1 years. The mean Cobb angle improved from 52º pre-operatively to 25º post-operatively (52%) and the mean rib hump improved from 16º to 8º (51%). The mean total SRS score for the cohort was 99.4/120. None of the deformity related parameters in the multiple regression were significant. However, patients with the lowest post-operative major Cobb angles reported significantly higher SRS scores than those with the highest post-operative Cobb angles, but there was no difference on the basis of rib hump correction. There were no significant differences between patients with either rod fractures or screw-related complications compared to those without complications.

The short-term effect of air pollution on cardiovascular mortality in Tianjin, China : comparison of time series and case–crossover analyses

Background: Many studies have illustrated that ambient air pollution negatively impacts on health. However, little evidence is available for the effects of air pollution on cardiovascular mortality (CVM) in Tianjin, China. Also, no study has examined which strata length for the time-stratified case–crossover analysis gives estimates that most closely match the estimates from time series analysis. Objectives: The purpose of this study was to estimate the effects of air pollutants on CVM in Tianjin, China, and compare time-stratified case–crossover and time series analyses. Method: A time-stratified case–crossover and generalized additive model (time series) were applied to examine the impact of air pollution on CVM from 2005 to 2007. Four time-stratified case–crossover analyses were used by varying the stratum length (Calendar month, 28, 21 or 14 days). Jackknifing was used to compare the methods. Residual analysis was used to check whether the models fitted well. Results: Both case–crossover and time series analyses show that air pollutants (PM10, SO2 and NO2) were positively associated with CVM. The estimates from the time-stratified case–crossover varied greatly with changing strata length. The estimates from the time series analyses varied slightly with changing degrees of freedom per year for time. The residuals from the time series analyses had less autocorrelation than those from the case–crossover analyses indicating a better fit. Conclusion: Air pollution was associated with an increased risk of CVM in Tianjin, China. Time series analyses performed better than the time-stratified case–crossover analyses in terms of residual checking.

Facilitating needs based cancer care for people with a chronic disease : evaluation of an intervention using a multi-centre interrupted time series design

Background: Palliative care should be provided according to the individual needs of the patient, caregiver and family, so that the type and level of care provided, as well as the setting in which it is delivered, are dependent on the complexity and severity of individual needs, rather than prognosis or diagnosis. This paper presents a study designed to assess the feasibility and efficacy of an intervention to assist in the allocation of palliative care resources according to need, within the context of a population of people with advanced cancer. ---------- Methods/design: People with advanced cancer and their caregivers completed bi-monthly telephone interviews over a period of up to 18 months to assess unmet needs, anxiety and depression, quality of life, satisfaction with care and service utilisation. The intervention, introduced after at least two baseline phone interviews, involved a) training medical, nursing and allied health professionals at each recruitment site on the use of the Palliative Care Needs Assessment Guidelines and the Needs Assessment Tool: Progressive Disease - Cancer (NAT: PD-C); b) health professionals completing the NAT: PD-C with participating patients approximately monthly for the rest of the study period. Changes in outcomes will be compared pre-and post-intervention.---------- Discussion: The study will determine whether the routine, systematic and regular use of the Guidelines and NAT: PD-C in a range of clinical settings is a feasible and effective strategy for facilitating the timely provision of needs based care.

Hydrogen bonding in proton-transfer compounds of 5-sulfosalicylic acid with a series of aliphatic nitrogen Lewis bases

The crystal structures of the proton-transfer compounds of 5-sulfosalicylic acid (3-carboxy-4-hydroxybenzenesulfonic acid) with the aliphatic nitrogen Lewis bases, hydroxylamine, triethylamine, pyrrolidine, morpholine, N-methylmorpholine and piperazine, viz. hydroxyammonium 3-carboxy-4-hydroxybenzenesulfonate (1), triethylaminium 3-carboxy-4-hydroxybenzenesulfonate (2), pyrrolidinium 3-carboxy-4-hydroxybenzenesulfonate monohydrate (3), morpholinium 3-carboxy-4-hydroxybenzenesulfonate monohydrate (4), N-methylmorpholinium 3-carboxy-4-hydroxybenzenesulfonate monohydrate (5) and piperazine-1,4-diium bis(3-carboxy-4-hydroxybenzenesulfonate) hexahydrate (6) have been determined and their comparative structural features and hydrogen-bonding patterns described. Crystals of 4 are triclinic, space group P-1 while the remainder are monoclinic with space group either P21/c (1 - 3) or P21/n (5, 6). Unit cell dimensions and contents are: for 1, a = 5.0156(3), b = 10.5738(6), c = 18.4785(9) Å, β = 96.412(5)o, Z = 4; for 2, a = 8.4998(4), b = 12.3832(6), c = 15.4875(9) Å, β = 102.411(5)o, Z = 4; for 3, a = 6.8755(2), b = 15.5217(4), c = 12.8335(3) Å, β = 92.074(2)o, Z = 4; for 4, a = 6.8397(2), b = 12.9756(5), c = 15.8216(6) Å, α = 90.833(3), β = 95.949(3), γ = 92.505(3)o, Z = 4; for 5, a = 7.0529(3), b = 13.8487(7), c = 15.6448(6) Å, β = 90.190(6)o, Z = 4; for 6, a = 7.0561(2), b = 15.9311(4), c = 12.2102(3) Å, β = 100.858(3)o, Z = 2. The hydrogen bonding generates structures which are either two-dimensional (2 and 5) or three-dimensional (1, 3, 4 and 6). Compound 6 represents the third reported structure of a salt of 5-sulfosalicylic acid having a dicationic piperazine species.

Last shall be first : a field study of biases in sequential performance evaluation on the Idol series

When performances are evaluated they are very often presented in a sequential order. Previous research suggests that the sequential presentation of alternatives may induce systematic biases in the way performances are evaluated. Such a phenomenon has been scarcely studied in economics. Using a large dataset of performance evaluation in the Idol series (N=1522), this paper presents new evidence about the systematic biases in sequential evaluation of performances and the psychological phenomena at the origin of these biases.

Performance comparison of VSC-based shunt and series compensators used for load voltage control in distribution systems

In this paper, the performance of voltage-source converter-based shunt and series compensators used for load voltage control in electrical power distribution systems has been analyzed and compared, when a nonlinear load is connected across the load bus. The comparison has been made based on the closed-loop frequency resopnse characteristics of the compensated distribution system. A distribution static compensator (DSTATCOM) as a shunt device and a dynamic voltage restorer (DVR) as a series device are considered in the voltage-control mode for the comparison. The power-quality problems which these compensator address include voltage sags/swells, load voltage harmonic distortions, and unbalancing. The effect of various system parameters on the control performance of the compensator can be studied using the proposed analysis. In particular, the performance of the two compensators are compared with the strong ac supply (stiff source) and weak ac-supply (non-still source) distribution system. The experimental verification of the analytical results derived has been obtained using a laboratory model of the single-phase DSTATCOM and DVR. A generalized converter topology using a cascaded multilevel inverter has been proposed for the medium-voltage distribution system. Simulation studies have been performed in the PSCAD/EMTDC software to verify the results in the three-phase system.