The FCLT with Dependent Errors: an Helicopter Tour of the Quality of the Approximation

This note investigates the adequacy of the finite-sample approximation provided by the Functional Central Limit Theorem (FCLT) when the errors are allowed to be dependent. We compare the distribution of the scaled partial sums of some data with the distribution of the Wiener process to which it converges. Our setup is purposely very simple in that it considers data generated from an ARMA(1,1) process. Yet, this is sufficient to bring out interesting conclusions about the particular elements which cause the approximations to be inadequate in even quite large sample sizes.

The influence of human capital of the workforce in the adoption of high-performance work systems : the case of Portugal and Spain. 'La influencia del capital humano de la mano de obra en la adopción de sistemas de trabajo de alto rendimiento: el caso de Portugal y España'.

Resumen tomado de la publicación

Ensemble projections for wine production in the Douro Valley of Portugal

Wine production is largely governed by atmospheric conditions, such as air temperature and precipitation, together with soil management and viticultural/enological practices. Therefore, anthropogenic climate change is likely to have important impacts on the winemaking sector worldwide. An important winemaking region is the Portuguese Douro Valley, which is known by its world-famous Port Wine. The identification of robust relationships between atmospheric factors and wine parameters is of great relevance for the region. A multivariate linear regression analysis of a long wine production series (1932–2010) reveals that high rainfall and cool temperatures during budburst, shoot and inflorescence development (February-March) and warm temperatures during flowering and berry development (May) are generally favourable to high production. The probabilities of occurrence of three production categories (low, normal and high) are also modelled using multinomial logistic regression. Results show that both statistical models are valuable tools for predicting the production in a given year with a lead time of 3–4 months prior to harvest. These statistical models are applied to an ensemble of 16 regional climate model experiments following the SRES A1B scenario to estimate possible future changes. Wine production is projected to increase by about 10 % by the end of the 21st century, while the occurrence of high production years is expected to increase from 25 % to over 60 %. Nevertheless, further model development will be needed to include other aspects that may shape production in the future. In particular, the rising heat stress and/or changes in ripening conditions could limit the projected production increase in future decades.

Climate change impacts in the design of drainage systems: case study of Portugal

This paper aims to assess the necessity of updating the intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves used in Portugal to design building storm-water drainage systems. A comparative analysis of the design was performed for the three predefined rainfall regions in Portugal using the IDF curves currently in use and estimated for future decades. Data for recent and future climate conditions simulated by a global and regional climate model chain are used to estimate possible changes of rainfall extremes and its implications for the drainage systems. The methodology includes the disaggregation of precipitation up to subhourly scales, the robust development of IDF curves, and the correction of model bias. Obtained results indicate that projected changes are largest for the plains in southern Portugal (5–33%) than for mountainous regions (3–9%) and that these trends are consistent with projected changes in the long-term 95th percentile of the daily precipitation throughout the 21st century. The authors conclude there is a need to review the current precipitation regime classification and change the new drainage systems towards larger dimensions to mitigate the projected changes in extreme precipitation.

Long-range ozone transport and its impact on respiratory and cardiovascular health in the north of Portugal

Ozone dynamics depend on meteorological characteristics such as wind, radiation, sunshine, air temperature and precipitation. The aim of this study was to determine ozone trajectories along the northern coast of Portugal during the summer months of 2005, when there was a spate of forest fires in the region, evaluating their impact on respiratory and cardiovascular health in the greater metropolitan area of Porto. We investigated the following diseases, as coded in the ninth revision of the International Classification of Diseases: hypertensive disease (codes 401-405); ischemic heart disease (codes 410-414); other cardiac diseases, including heart failure (codes 426-428); chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and allied conditions, including bronchitis and asthma (codes 490-496); and pneumoconiosis and other lung diseases due to external agents (codes 500-507). We evaluated ozone data from air quality monitoring stations in the study area, together with data collected through HYbrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model analysis of air mass circulation and synoptic-scale zonal wind from National Centers for Environmental Prediction data. High ozone levels in rural areas were attributed to the dispersion of pollutants induced by local circulation, as well as by mesoscale and synoptic scale processes. The fires of 2005 increased the levels of pollutants resulting from the direct emission of gases and particles into the atmosphere, especially when there were incoming frontal systems. For the meteorological case studies analyzed, peaks in ozone concentration were positively associated with higher rates of hospital admissions for cardiovascular diseases, although there were no significant associations between ozone peaks and admissions for respiratory diseases.

The highest intensity and the shortest duration permitting attainment of maximal oxygen uptake during cycling: effects of different methods and aerobic fitness level

The aims of this study were: (1) to verify the validity of previous proposed models to estimate the lowest exercise duration (T (LOW)) and the highest intensity (I (HIGH)) at which VO(2)max is reached (2) to test the hypothesis that parameters involved in these models, and hence the validity of these models are affected by aerobic training status. Thirteen cyclists (EC), eleven runners (ER) and ten untrained (U) subjects performed several cycle-ergometer exercise tests to fatigue in order to determine and estimate T (LOW) (ET (LOW)) and I (HIGH) (EI (HIGH)). The relationship between the time to achieved VO(2)max and time to exhaustion (T (lim)) was used to estimate ET (LOW). EI (HIGH) was estimated using the critical power model. I (HIGH) was assumed as the highest intensity at which VO2 was equal or higher than the average of VO(2)max values minus one typical error. T (LOW) was considered T (lim) associated with I (HIGH). No differences were found in T (LOW) between ER (170 +/- 31 s) and U (209 +/- 29 s), however, both showed higher values than EC (117 +/- 29 s). I (HIGH) was similar between U (269 +/- 73 W) and ER (319 +/- 50 W), and both were lower than EC (451 +/- 33 W). EI (HIGH) was similar and significantly correlated with I-HIGH only in U (r = 0.87) and ER (r = 0.62). ET (LOW) and T (LOW) were different only for U and not significantly correlated in all groups. These data suggest that the aerobic training status affects the validity of the proposed models for estimating I (HIGH).

Report on a study tour of the European Communities

Includes bibliography

Report on a familiarization tour of Montserrat, St. Kitts-Nevis-Anguilla, Antigua, St. Lucia and Barbados (8-25 March 1977)

Informe sobre el desarrollo industrial en Montserrat, San Cristóbal Nieves y Anguila, Santa Lucía y Barbados. Analiza brevemente algunas industrias específicas e identifica proyectos industriales que podrían desarrollarse en estos países

Open Tour of Poster Session

The campus community and your invited guests will have an hour and a half to tour your poster session. They will be able to hear you describe the problems you worked on this week and ask you questions about your work.