A comparison of two business cycle dating methods

We study the suggestion that Markov switching (MS) models should be used to determine cyclical turning points. A Kalman filter approximation is used to derive the dating rules implicit in such models. We compare these with dating rules in an algorithm that provides a good approximation to the chronology determined by the NBER. We find that there is very little that is attractive in the MS approach when compared with this algorithm. The most important difference relates to robustness. The MS approach depends on the validity of that statistical model. Our approach is valid in a wider range of circumstances.

Developing a life-cycle costing analysis model for sustainability enhancement in road infrastructure project

With increasing pressure to provide environmentally responsible infrastructure products and services, stakeholders are putting significant foci on the early identification of financial viability and outcome of infrastructure projects. Traditionally, there has been an imbalance between sustainable measures and project budget. On one hand, the industry tends to employ the first-cost mentality and approach to developing infrastructure projects. On the other, environmental experts and technology innovators often push for the ultimately green products and systems without much of a concern for cost. This situation is being quickly changed as the industry is under pressure to continue to return profit, while better adapting to current and emerging global issues of sustainability. For the infrastructure sector to contribute to sustainable development, it will need to increase value and efficiency. Thus, there is a great need for tools that will enable decision makers evaluate competing initiatives and identify the most sustainable approaches to procuring infrastructure projects. In order to ensure that these objectives are achieved, the concept of life-cycle costing analysis (LCCA) will play significant roles in the economics of an infrastructure project. Recently, a few research initiatives have applied the LCCA models for road infrastructure that focused on the traditional economics of a project. There is little coverage of life-cycle costing as a method to evaluate the criteria and assess the economic implications of pursuing sustainability in road infrastructure projects. To rectify this problem, this paper reviews the theoretical basis of previous LCCA models before discussing their inability to determinate the sustainability indicators in road infrastructure project. It then introduces an on-going research aimed at developing a new model to integrate the various new cost elements based on the sustainability indicators with the traditional and proven LCCA approach. It is expected that the research will generate a working model for sustainability based life-cycle cost analysis.

Incorporating sustainability measures in life-cycle financial decision making for highway construction

Public awareness and the nature of highway construction works demand that sustainability measures are first on the development agenda. However, in the current economic climate, individual volition and enthusiasm for such high capital investments do not present as strong cases for decision making as the financial pictures of pursuing sustainability. Some stakeholders consider sustainability to be extra work that costs additional money. Though, stakeholders realised its importance in infrastructure development. They are keen to identify the available alternatives and financial implications on a lifecycle basis. Highway infrastructure development is a complex rocess which requires expertise and tools to evaluate investment options, such as environmentally sustainable features for road and highway development. Life-cycle cost analysis (LCCA) is a valuable approach for investment decision making for construction works. However, LCCA applications in highway development are still limited. Current models, for example focus on economic issues alone and do not deal with sustainability factors, which are more difficult to quantify and encapsulate in estimation modules. This paper reports the research which identifies sustainability related factors in highway construction projects, in quantitative and qualitative forms of a multi-criteria analysis. These factors are then incorporated into past and proven LCCA models to produce a new long term decision support model. The research via questionnaire, model building, analytical hierarchy processes (AHP) and case studies have identified, evaluated and then processed highway sustainability related cost elements. These cost elements need to be verified by industry before being integrated for further development of the model. Then the Australian construction industry will have a practical tool to evaluate investment decisions which provide an optimum balance between financial viability and sustainability deliverables.

Property development cycle and acquisition strategies

This presenation is part of the UDIA (Qld) Property Development Essentials program, which is a two-day introductory course designed for new entrants to the property industry. The course provides practical advice and direction for those looking to take the first steps into the development industry. This presentation identifies economic factors and their influence on land acquisitions, as well as providing an understanding the property development and business cycles and their impacts on acquisition strategies (long v. short term projects)

Analysis of primary user duty cycle impact on spectrum sensing performance

Spectrum sensing is considered to be one of the most important tasks in cognitive radio. Many sensing detectors have been proposed in the literature, with the common assumption that the primary user is either fully present or completely absent within the window of observation. In reality, there are scenarios where the primary user signal only occupies a fraction of the observed window. This paper aims to analyse the effect of the primary user duty cycle on spectrum sensing performance through the analysis of a few common detectors. Simulations show that the probability of detection degrades severely with reduced duty cycle regardless of the detection method. Furthermore we show that reducing the duty cycle has a greater degradation on performance than lowering the signal strength.

Life-cycle management of construction projects based on virtual prototyping technology

Life-cycle management (LCM) has been employed in the management of construction projects for many years in order to reduce whole life cost, time, risk and improve the service to owners. However, owing to lack of an effective information sharing platform, the current LCM of construction projects is not effectively used in the construction industry. Based upon the analysis of the information flow of LCM, a virutal prototyping (VP)-based communication and collaboration information platform is proposed. Following this, the platform is customized using DASSAULT sofware. The whole process of implementing the VP-based LCM are also discussed and, from a simple case study, it is demonstrated that the VP-based communication and collaboration information platform is an effective tool to support the LCM of construction projects.

Reconciling the supply of and demand for carbon cycle science in the US agricultural sector

When asking the question, ``How can institutions design science policies for the benefit of decision makers?'' Sarewitz and Pielke Sarewitz, D., Pielke Jr., R.A., this issue. The neglected heart of science policy: reconciling supply of and demand for science. Environ. Sci. Policy 10] posit the idea of ``reconciling supply and demand of science'' as a conceptual tool for assessment of science programs. We apply the concept to the U.S. Department of Agriculture's (USDA) carbon cycle science program. By evaluating the information needs of decision makers, or the ``demand'', along with the supply of information by the USDA, we can ascertain where matches between supply and demand exist, and where science policies might miss opportunities. We report the results of contextual mapping and of interviews with scientists at the USDA to evaluate the production and use of current agricultural global change research, which has the stated goal of providing ``optimal benefit'' to decision makers on all levels. We conclude that the USDA possesses formal and informal mechanisms by which scientists evaluate the needs of users, ranging from individual producers to Congress and the President. National-level demands for carbon cycle science evolve as national and international policies are explored. Current carbon cycle science is largely derived from those discussions and thus anticipates the information needs of producers. However, without firm agricultural carbon policies, such information is currently unimportant to producers. (C) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The importance of environmental issues and costs in Life Cycle Cost Analysis (LCCA) for highway projects

Sustainability has been increasingly recognised as an integral part of highway infrastructure development. In practice however, the fact that financial return is still a project’s top priority for many, environmental aspects tend to be overlooked or considered as a burden, as they add to project costs. Sustainability and its implications have a far-reaching effect on each project over time. Therefore, with highway infrastructure’s long-term life span and huge capital demand, the consideration of environmental cost/ benefit issues is more crucial in life-cycle cost analysis (LCCA). To date, there is little in existing literature studies on viable estimation methods for environmental costs. This situation presents the potential for focused studies on environmental costs and issues in the context of life-cycle cost analysis. This paper discusses a research project which aims to integrate the environmental cost elements and issues into a conceptual framework for life cycle costing analysis for highway projects. Cost elements and issues concerning the environment were first identified through literature. Through questionnaires, these environmental cost elements will be validated by practitioners before their consolidation into the extension of existing and worked models of life-cycle costing analysis (LCCA). A holistic decision support framework is being developed to assist highway infrastructure stakeholders to evaluate their investment decision. This will generate financial returns while maximising environmental benefits and sustainability outcome.

The urban water cycle : towards integrated resource management and more sustainable water management systems

The increasing scarcity of water in the world, along with rapid population increase in urban areas, gives reason for concern and highlights the need for integrating water and wastewater management practices. The uncontrolled growth in urban areas has made planning, management and expansion of water and wastewater infrastructure systems very difficult and expensive. In order to achieve sustainable wastewater treatment and promote the conservation of water and nutrient resources, this chapter advocates the need for a closed-loop treatment system approach, and the transformation of the traditional linear treatment systems into integrated cyclical treatment systems. The recent increased understanding of integrated resource management and a shift towards sustainable management and planning of water and wastewater infrastructure are also discussed.

Stress and coping among migrant labourers in urban Vietnam : an adaptation cycle and health vulnerabilities

Rural-urban migration continues to grow in many developing countries including Vietnam. The experience of stress and coping associated with this process may vary for people from different circumstances. However, there has been little research on migrants to date. This study adopts a qualitative approach to research on unregistered, male, migrant freelance labourers in urban Vietnam and to explore factors contributing to stress and coping among this population. The study revealed an array of stressors related to migrants' life experiences in urban space, including physical, financial and social factors. Coping was diverse, including problem-focused coping (PFC) and emotion-focused coping (EFC), pro-social and anti-social, active and passive. Less active and anti-social coping appeared common. Together, weak social network and lack of support from formal systems placed coping and adaptation in a cyclic relationship. The results highlight a multi-disciplinary approach to help cope and adapt effectively for these men.

EduBuilding: material selection from life cycle costing sensitivity

Life Cycle Cost Analysis provides a form of synopsis of the initial and consequential costs of building related decisions. These cost figures may be implemented to justify higher investments, for example, in the quality or flexibility of building solutions through a long term cost reduction. The emerging discipline of asset mnagement is a promising approach to this problem, because it can do things that techniques such as balanced scorecards and total quantity cannot. Decisions must be made about operating and maintaining infrastructure assets. An injudicious sensitivity of life cycle costing is that the longer something lasts, the less it costs over time. A life cycle cost analysis will be used as an economic evaluation tool and collaborate with various numbers of analyses. LCCA quantifies incurring costs commonly overlooked (by property and asset managers and designs) as replacement and maintenance costs. The purpose of this research is to examine the Life Cycle Cost Analysis on building floor materials. By implementing the life cycle cost analysis, the true cost of each material will be computed projecting 60 years as the building service life and 5.4% as the inflation rate percentage to classify and appreciate the different among the materials. The analysis results showed the high impact in selecting the floor materials according to the potential of service life cycle cost next.

Whole life cycle costing for Malaysia residential property development : the cultural environment

As knowledge of the residential development costing impact on resource and budgeting use increase, developers are moving towards more sustainable solution by implementing whole life cycle costing. Property management requires an understanding of infrastructure management, service life planning and quality management. Today, people are beginning to realize that effective property management in high-rise residential property can sustain the property value and maintain high returns on their investment. The continuous growth of high-rise residential properties indicates that there is a need for an effective property management system to provide a sustainable high-rise residential property development. For such reasons, this paper attempts to study the culture that have been applied due the residential property development in Malaysia as to improve to the best and sustainable practice in providing the best cost effectiveness management system in residential property development.