The potential to narrow uncertainty in regional climate predictions

Faced by the realities of a changing climate, decision makers in a wide variety of organisations are increasingly seeking quantitative predictions of regional and local climate. An important issue for these decision makers, and for organisations that fund climate research, is what is the potential for climate science to deliver improvements - especially reductions in uncertainty - in such predictions? Uncertainty in climate predictions arises from three distinct sources: internal variability, model uncertainty and scenario uncertainty. Using data from a suite of climate models we separate and quantify these sources. For predictions of changes in surface air temperature on decadal timescales and regional spatial scales, we show that uncertainty for the next few decades is dominated by sources (model uncertainty and internal variability) that are potentially reducible through progress in climate science. Furthermore, we find that model uncertainty is of greater importance than internal variability. Our findings have implications for managing adaptation to a changing climate. Because the costs of adaptation are very large, and greater uncertainty about future climate is likely to be associated with more expensive adaptation, reducing uncertainty in climate predictions is potentially of enormous economic value. We highlight the need for much more work to compare: a) the cost of various degrees of adaptation, given current levels of uncertainty; and b) the cost of new investments in climate science to reduce current levels of uncertainty. Our study also highlights the importance of targeting climate science investments on the most promising opportunities to reduce prediction uncertainty.

Nitrate transport in Chalk catchments: monitoring, modelling and policy implications

Rising nitrate levels have been observed in UK Chalk catchments in recent decades, with concentrations now approaching or exceeding legislated maximum values in many areas. In response, strategies seeking to contain concentrations through appropriate land management are now in place. However, there is an increasing consensus that Chalk systems, a predominant landscape type over England and indeed northwest Europe, can retard decades of prior nitrate loading within their deep unsaturated zones. Current levels may not fully reflect the long-term impact of present-day practices, and stringent land management controls may not be enough to avert further medium-term rises. This paper discusses these issues in the context of the EU Water Framework Directive, drawing on data from recent experimental work and a new model (INCA-Chalk) that allows the impacts of different land use management practices to be explored. Results strongly imply that timelines for water quality improvement demanded by the Water Framework directive are not realistic for the Chalk, and give an indication of time-scales over which improvements might be achieved. However, important unresolved scientific issues remain, and further monitoring and targeted data collection is recommended to reduce prediction uncertainties and allow cost effective strategies for mitigation to be designed and implemented. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An integrated assessment of carbon dioxide capture and storage in the UK

Geological carbon dioxide storage (CCS) has the potential to make a significant contribution to the decarbonisation of the UK. Amid concerns over maintaining security, and hence diversity, of supply, CCS could allow the continued use of coal, oil and gas whilst avoiding the CO2 emissions currently associated with fossil fuel use. This project has explored some of the geological, environmental, technical, economic and social implications of this technology. The UK is well placed to exploit CCS with a large offshore storage capacity, both in disused oil and gas fields and saline aquifers. This capacity should be sufficient to store CO2 from the power sector (at current levels) for a least one century, using well understood and therefore likely to be lower-risk, depleted hydrocarbon fields and contained parts of aquifers. It is very difficult to produce reliable estimates of the (potentially much larger) storage capacity of the less well understood geological reservoirs such as non-confined parts of aquifers. With the majority of its large coal fired power stations due to be retired during the next 15 to 20 years, the UK is at a natural decision point with respect to the future of power generation from coal; the existence of both national reserves and the infrastructure for receiving imported coal makes clean coal technology a realistic option. The notion of CCS as a ‘bridging’ or ‘stop-gap’ technology (i.e. whilst we develop ‘genuinely’ sustainable renewable energy technologies) needs to be examined somewhat critically, especially given the scale of global coal reserves. If CCS plant is built, then it is likely that technological innovation will bring down the costs of CO2 capture, such that it could become increasingly attractive. As with any capitalintensive option, there is a danger of becoming ‘locked-in’ to a CCS system. The costs of CCS in our model for UK power stations in the East Midlands and Yorkshire to reservoirs in the North Sea are between £25 and £60 per tonne of CO2 captured, transported and stored. This is between about 2 and 4 times the current traded price of a tonne of CO2 in the EU Emissions Trading Scheme. In addition to the technical and economic requirements of the CCS technology, it should also be socially and environmentally acceptable. Our research has shown that, given an acceptance of the severity and urgency of addressing climate change, CCS is viewed favourably by members of the public, provided it is adopted within a portfolio of other measures. The most commonly voiced concern from the public is that of leakage and this remains perhaps the greatest uncertainty with CCS. It is not possible to make general statements concerning storage security; assessments must be site specific. The impacts of any potential leakage are also somewhat uncertain but should be balanced against the deleterious effects of increased acidification in the oceans due to uptake of elevated atmospheric CO2 that have already been observed. Provided adequate long term monitoring can be ensured, any leakage of CO2 from a storage site is likely to have minimal localised impacts as long as leaks are rapidly repaired. A regulatory framework for CCS will need to include risk assessment of potential environmental and health and safety impacts, accounting and monitoring and liability for the long term. In summary, although there remain uncertainties to be resolved through research and demonstration projects, our assessment demonstrates that CCS holds great potential for significant cuts in CO2 emissions as we develop long term alternatives to fossil fuel use. CCS can contribute to reducing emissions of CO2 into the atmosphere in the near term (i.e. peak-shaving the future atmospheric concentration of CO2), with the potential to continue to deliver significant CO2 reductions over the long term.

Increasing influence of heat stress on French maize yields from the 1960s to the 2030s

Improved crop yield forecasts could enable more effective adaptation to climate variability and change. Here, we explore how to combine historical observations of crop yields and weather with climate model simulations to produce crop yield projections for decision relevant timescales. Firstly, the effects on historical crop yields of improved technology, precipitation and daily maximum temperatures are modelled empirically, accounting for a nonlinear technology trend and interactions between temperature and precipitation, and applied specifically for a case study of maize in France. The relative importance of precipitation variability for maize yields in France has decreased significantly since the 1960s, likely due to increased irrigation. In addition, heat stress is found to be as important for yield as precipitation since around 2000. A significant reduction in maize yield is found for each day with a maximum temperature above 32 °C, in broad agreement with previous estimates. The recent increase in such hot days has likely contributed to the observed yield stagnation. Furthermore, a general method for producing near-term crop yield projections, based on climate model simulations, is developed and utilized. We use projections of future daily maximum temperatures to assess the likely change in yields due to variations in climate. Importantly, we calibrate the climate model projections using observed data to ensure both reliable temperature mean and daily variability characteristics, and demonstrate that these methods work using retrospective predictions. We conclude that, to offset the projected increased daily maximum temperatures over France, improved technology will need to increase base level yields by 12% to be confident about maintaining current levels of yield for the period 2016–2035; the current rate of yield technology increase is not sufficient to meet this target.

MPME- Qual o tratamento mais adequado - regime diferenciado como forma de redução da informalidade?

Este trabalho analisa o papel das micro , pequenas e médias empresas no Brasil, sua importância na geração de rendas e empregos e compara os principais indicadores desse segmento com o de outros países. O trabalho faz uma análise dos principais problemas que dificultam o desenvolvimento das MPME, evidencia o que já foi feito e sugere que as políticas públicas priorizem a melhoria da competitividade das empresas, através da redução dos obstáculos causados pela excessiva regulamentação, dificuldades de acesso a financiamentos de médio e de longo prazos e através de programas e incentivos visando a melhoria da gestão das mesmas. O trabalho evidencia a importância e a evolução dos Distritos Industriais ( APL's) no Brasil, por muitos considerado como uma alternativa de fortalecimento das MPME e de desenvolvimento regional. É feita uma análise dos principais indicadores da economia informal e como algumas medidas de políticas públicas poderiam colaborar para redução dos atuais níveis de informalidade. O trabalho é concluído reenfatizando as principais ações que poderiam ser priorizadas nas diversas áreas - regulamentação, judiciário, tributária, crédito, todas objetivando melhorar a produtividade das MPME.

Genetic Structure of Populations of the Rice-Infecting Pathogen Rhizoctonia solani AG-1 IA from China

Sheath blight disease (SBD) on rice, caused by Rhizoctonia solani AG-1 IA, is one of the most devastating rice diseases on a global basis, including China (in Eastern Asia), the world's largest rice-growing country. We analyzed the population genetics of nine rice-infecting populations from China using nine microsatellite loci. One allopatric population from India (Southern Asia) was included in the analyses. In total, 300 different multilocus genotypes were found among 572 fungal isolates. Clonal fractions within rice fields were 16 to 95%, suggesting that sclerotia were a major source of primary inoculum in some fields. Global Phi(ST) statistics (Phi(ST) = 42.49; P <= 0.001) were consistent with a relatively high level of differentiation among populations overall; however, pairwise comparisons gave nonsignificant R(ST) values, consistent with contemporary gene flow among five of the populations. Four of these populations were located along the Yangtze River tributary network. Gene flow followed an isolation-by-distance model consistent with restricted long-distance migration. Historical migration rates were reconstructed and yielded values that explained the current levels of population subdivision. Except for one population which appeared to be strictly clonal, all populations showed evidence of a mixed reproductive mode, including both asexual and sexual reproduction. One population had a strictly recombining structure (all loci were in Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium) but the remaining populations from China and the one from India exhibited varying degrees of sexual reproduction. Six populations showed significant F(IS) values consistent with inbreeding.

Genome-Wide Survey of SNP Variation Uncovers the Genetic Structure of Cattle Breeds

The imprints of domestication and breed development on the genomes of livestock likely differ from those of companion animals. A deep draft sequence assembly of shotgun reads from a single Hereford female and comparative sequences sampled from six additional breeds were used to develop probes to interrogate 37,470 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 497 cattle from 19 geographically and biologically diverse breeds. These data show that cattle have undergone a rapid recent decrease in effective population size from a very large ancestral population, possibly due to bottlenecks associated with domestication, selection, and breed formation. Domestication and artificial selection appear to have left detectable signatures of selection within the cattle genome, yet the current levels of diversity within breeds are at least as great as exists within humans.

Social Panorama of Latin America 2006

Includes bibliography

Supply Chain Management practices in the electro-electronics sector in Brazil: Evolutionary approach, information technology adoption and management actions

This paper examines the current level of adoption of Supply Chain Management (SCM) practices in the electro-electronic sector in Brazil and aims to identify the management and Information Technology (IT) actions that have been implemented to support the adoption of those practices. An e-mail survey was conducted. Descriptive statistics techniques were employed for data analysis. This study makes contributions to the electro-electronics sector and to the topics related to SCM, such as identifi cation and level of adoption of SCM practices. Another contribution of this research is the investigation of whether approaches such as Enterprise Resources Planning (ERP), Workshop with Customers, Electronic Data Interchange (EDI), Workshop with Suppliers and electronic Kanban are commonly used to support SCM practices. So far, this is the fi rst research on SCM practices in the electro-electronics sector in Brazil. Copyright © 2012 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.

Manifestações neurológicas em ribeirinhos de áreas expostas ao mercúrio na Amazônia brasileira

No presente estudo, foram avaliados comparativamente os níveis atuais de exposição ao mercúrio e as manifestações neurológicas em ribeirinhos residentes em comunidades situadas no Estado do Pará, Brasil. Participaram do estudo 78 ribeirinhos de Barreiras (bacia do rio Tapajós), 30 de São Luiz do Tapajós (bacia do rio Tapajós) e 49 do Furo do Maracujá (bacia do rio Tocantins). As concentrações de mercúrio total foram quantificadas, em cabelo, pela espectrofotometria de absorção atômica, e a avaliação neurológica foi realizada por meio de testes de rotina. As concentrações de mercúrio nas comunidades do Tapajós foram maiores que as do Tocantins (p < 0,01). A avaliação das alterações neurológicas não mostrou diferença significativa entre as comunidades das áreas expostas e controle para os resultados observados pelo exame neurológico convencional, exceto para desvio da marcha (p < 0,05). Concluiu-se que, apesar dos níveis de exposição ao mercúrio, houve uma baixa frequência de alterações somatossensoriais encontradas por meio de exames neurológicos convencionais.

Cryptic Genetic Diversity Is Paramount in Small-Bodied Amphibians of the Genus Euparkerella (Anura: Craugastoridae) Endemic to the Brazilian Atlantic Forest

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Efeitos da exposição aos poluentes do ar com base nas internações por doenças cardiovasculares e respiratórias no município de Taubaté, SP

Pós-graduação em Engenharia Civil e Ambiental - FEB

Design and optimization of components and processes for plasma sources in advanced material treatments

The research activities described in the present thesis have been oriented to the design and development of components and technological processes aimed at optimizing the performance of plasma sources in advanced in material treatments. Consumables components for high definition plasma arc cutting (PAC) torches were studied and developed. Experimental activities have in particular focussed on the modifications of the emissive insert with respect to the standard electrode configuration, which comprises a press fit hafnium insert in a copper body holder, to improve its durability. Based on a deep analysis of both the scientific and patent literature, different solutions were proposed and tested. First, the behaviour of Hf cathodes when operating at high current levels (250A) in oxidizing atmosphere has been experimentally investigated optimizing, with respect to expected service life, the initial shape of the electrode emissive surface. Moreover, the microstructural modifications of the Hf insert in PAC electrodes were experimentally investigated during first cycles, in order to understand those phenomena occurring on and under the Hf emissive surface and involved in the electrode erosion process. Thereafter, the research activity focussed on producing, characterizing and testing prototypes of composite inserts, combining powders of a high thermal conductibility (Cu, Ag) and high thermionic emissivity (Hf, Zr) materials The complexity of the thermal plasma torch environment required and integrated approach also involving physical modelling. Accordingly, a detailed line-by-line method was developed to compute the net emission coefficient of Ar plasmas at temperatures ranging from 3000 K to 25000 K and pressure ranging from 50 kPa to 200 kPa, for optically thin and partially autoabsorbed plasmas. Finally, prototypal electrodes were studied and realized for a newly developed plasma source, based on the plasma needle concept and devoted to the generation of atmospheric pressure non-thermal plasmas for biomedical applications.

Precise Measurement of the Neutrino Mixing Parameter θ₂₃ from Muon Neutrino Disappearance in an Off-Axis Beam

New data from the T2K neutrino oscillation experiment produce the most precise measurement of the neutrino mixing parameter θ 23 . Using an off-axis neutrino beam with a peak energy of 0.6 GeV and a data set corresponding to 6.57×10 20 protons on target, T2K has fit the energy-dependent ν μ oscillation probability to determine oscillation parameters. The 68% confidence limit on sin 2 (θ 23 ) is 0.514 +0.055 −0.056 (0.511±0.055 ), assuming normal (inverted) mass hierarchy. The best-fit mass-squared splitting for normal hierarchy is Δm 2 32 =(2.51±0.10)×10 −3   eV 2 /c 4 (inverted hierarchy: Δm 2 13 =(2.48±0.10)×10 −3   eV 2 /c 4 ). Adding a model of multinucleon interactions that affect neutrino energy reconstruction is found to produce only small biases in neutrino oscillation parameter extraction at current levels of statistical uncertainty.

Understanding Racial Segregation: What is known about the Effect of Housing Discrimination

A central purpose of this chapter is to assess whether the available empirical evidence supports the view that current levels of housing discrimination are a significant contributor to residential segregation in U.S. cities and metropolitan areas. Through the course of this chapter, the reader will find that the empirical patterns of racial segregation in the U.S. are often inconsistent the available evidence on housing discrimination. Admittedly, strong evidence exists that both housing discrimination exists today and that housing discrimination throughout much of the Twentieth Century was central to creating the high levels of segregation that we observe in U.S. metropolitan areas today, but the appropriate policy responses may differ dramatically depending upon how these two phenomena are currently interrelated.