Characterizations of Bivariate Models Using Some Dynamic Conditional Information Divergence Measures

In this article, we study some relevant information divergence measures viz. Renyi divergence and Kerridge’s inaccuracy measures. These measures are extended to conditionally specifiedmodels and they are used to characterize some bivariate distributions using the concepts of weighted and proportional hazard rate models. Moreover, some bounds are obtained for these measures using the likelihood ratio order

Evaluating forecasts from SETAR models of exchange rates

We consider the forecasting performance of two SETAR exchange rate models proposed by Kräger and Kugler [J. Int. Money Fin. 12 (1993) 195]. Assuming that the models are good approximations to the data generating process, we show that whether the non-linearities inherent in the data can be exploited to forecast better than a random walk depends on both how forecast accuracy is assessed and on the ‘state of nature’. Evaluation based on traditional measures, such as (root) mean squared forecast errors, may mask the superiority of the non-linear models. Generalized impulse response functions are also calculated as a means of portraying the asymmetric response to shocks implied by such models.

A unified view on lifetime distributions arising from selection mechanisms

In this paper, we formulate a flexible density function from the selection mechanism viewpoint (see, for example, Bayarri and DeGroot (1992) and Arellano-Valle et al. (2006)) which possesses nice biological and physical interpretations. The new density function contains as special cases many models that have been proposed recently in the literature. In constructing this model, we assume that the number of competing causes of the event of interest has a general discrete distribution characterized by its probability generating function. This function has an important role in the selection procedure as well as in computing the conditional personal cure rate. Finally, we illustrate how various models can be deduced as special cases of the proposed model. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Conway-Maxwell-Poisson-generalized gamma regression model with long-term survivors

In this paper, we proposed a flexible cure rate survival model by assuming the number of competing causes of the event of interest following the Conway-Maxwell distribution and the time for the event to follow the generalized gamma distribution. This distribution can be used to model survival data when the hazard rate function is increasing, decreasing, bathtub and unimodal-shaped including some distributions commonly used in lifetime analysis as particular cases. Some appropriate matrices are derived in order to evaluate local influence on the estimates of the parameters by considering different perturbations, and some global influence measurements are also investigated. Finally, data set from the medical area is analysed.

A new long-term lifetime distribution induced by a latent complementary risk framework

In this paper, we proposed a new three-parameter long-term lifetime distribution induced by a latent complementary risk framework with decreasing, increasing and unimodal hazard function, the long-term complementary exponential geometric distribution. The new distribution arises from latent competing risk scenarios, where the lifetime associated scenario, with a particular risk, is not observable, rather we observe only the maximum lifetime value among all risks, and the presence of long-term survival. The properties of the proposed distribution are discussed, including its probability density function and explicit algebraic formulas for its reliability, hazard and quantile functions and order statistics. The parameter estimation is based on the usual maximum-likelihood approach. A simulation study assesses the performance of the estimation procedure. We compare the new distribution with its particular cases, as well as with the long-term Weibull distribution on three real data sets, observing its potential and competitiveness in comparison with some usual long-term lifetime distributions.

Immunotherapy for the treatment of poor prognosis cancers

Cancer is amongst the leading causes of death worldwide and the number one cause in the developed world. Every year there are close to 10 million cancer related deaths and this corresponds to hundreds of millions of euro in health care costs and lost productivity, placing a substantial drain on the economy. The efficacy of traditional treatment modalities for cancer therapy, such as surgery, radiotherapy and chemotherapy has plateaued, and while they are undoubtedly effective at prolonging patient lifespan, there is a high rate of adverse side effects and fatal reoccurrence. Currently, there is a huge amount of interest in the areas of cancer immunosurveillance and cancer immuno-editing, which explain some of the complex interactions between the host immune system and cancer. If left unchecked, cancerous malignancies have the ability to generate an immunosuppressive microenvironment, effectively shielding themselves from elimination and promoting tumour growth and progression. To overcome this, the potential of the immune system must be harnessed and the work undertaken in this thesis sought to contribute to this goal. Focus was placed on using novel therapies, combining tumour ablation with immune-modulating antibodies to maximise tumour elimination in an immune dependent manner, to overcome immunosuppression and promote immune activation. Chapter 2 focuses on the use of ECT as a method of tumour ablation and its effects on the immune system. ECT proved to be effective at inhibiting the tumour growth both in vitro and in vivo, and conferred significant survival advantages in both small and large animal models. More importantly, ECT proved to cause tumour death in an immune dependent manner, displaying the hallmarks of Immunogenic Cell Death, increases in immune cell infiltration and generating tumour-specific immune responses. Chapter 3 focuses on combining ECT with immune checkpoint blockade inhibitors; anti- CTLA-4 and anti-PD-1. Both combinations proved to be effective at inhibiting both primary and distal tumour growth, indicating the generation of tumour specific immune responses and prolonged animal survival. In addition, the treatments caused increases in the levels of certain intra-tumoural immune cell subsets and modulated the cytokine profile of treated animals in a way that was favourable overall. Chapter 4 focuses on the combining ECT with an anti-iCOS agonist antibody, capable of causing immune co-stimulation. This novel combinational therapy proved to be the most effective by far, with a high cure rate achieved across a number of different in vivo tumour models. Total regression was seen in both primary and distal tumours, as well as spontaneous metastases, with the tumour specific immune response generated conferring total protection to animals on tumour rechallenge. Overall the data presented here adds further insight into the area of cancer immunotherapy with some of the novel combinational therapies demonstrating substantial clinic potential.

Childhood experiences of cancer : an interpretative phenomenological analysis approach

Pediatric oncology has emerged as one of the great medical success stories of the last 4 decades. The cure rate of childhood cancer has increased from approximately 25% in the 1960’s to more than 75% in more recent years. However, very little is known about how children actually experience the diagnosis and treatment of their illness. A total of 9 families in which a child was diagnosed with cancer were interviewed twice over a 12-month period. Using the qualitative methodology of interpretative phenomenological analysis (IPA), children’s experiences of being patients with a diagnosis of cancer were explicated. The results revealed 5 significant themes: the experience of illness, the upside of being sick, refocusing on what is important, acquiring a new perspective, and the experience of returning to wellbeing. Changes over time were noted because children’s experiences’ were often pertinent to the stage of treatment the child had reached. These results revealed rich and intimate information about a sensitive issue with implications for understanding child development and medical and psychosocial treatment.

Faecal incontinence in childhood : a multidisciplinary approach including biofeedback

One hundred and seven children with faecal incontinence were evaluated and managed over a 3 year period by a multidisciplinary team. After initial clinical assessment, evaluation of defaecatory mechanisms (using a balloon model) and assessment of personal-social development and self-concept were undertaken. Management was based on initial bowel evacuation, short-term laxatives, and habit training involving systematic use of positive reinforcement; 69 children received biofeedback conditioning. Idiopathic megacolon with constipation and soiling was the most common finding (98 cases). Other diagnoses included previously undiagnosed neurogenic bowel (three cases), post-surgical anal anomalies (four cases), and psychogenic encopresis (two cases). Idiopathic megacolon was characterized by decreased rectal sensation, increased threshold for external sphincter relaxation and an inability to evacuate. Faecal incontinence was associated with an undesirably low social self-concept (70% of the 40 evaluated), but was not related to a delay in development (mean general developmental quotient = 105 ± 8, for the 35 tested). Family psychopathology warranting referral for family therapy was found in 14 children (13%). The management programme yielded a short-term (3 months) cure rate of 68% and a long-term (12 months) cure rate of 90%, with 10% having continued soiling which varied from occasional to several incidents/week. No significant improvement in self-concept was observed overall, although marked improvements were observed in some children. We conclude that disordered defaecatory dynamics are a major determinant of faecal incontinence in children. Undesirably low social self-concepts but normal developmental ability accompany this condition. Management is facilitated by a multidisciplinary approach, acknowledging the role of both behavioural and physiological components of the problem. This approach is effective in eradicating soiling in the majority of cases, comparing favourably with other published data.

Modelling temperature, photoperiod and vernalization responses of Brunonia australis (Goodeniaceae) and Calandrinia sp (Portulacaceae) to predict flowering time

Crop models for herbaceous ornamental species typically include functions for temperature and photoperiod responses, but very few incorporate vernalization, which is a requirement of many traditional crops. This study investigated the development of floriculture crop models, which describe temperature responses, plus photoperiod or vernalization requirements, using Australian native ephemerals Brunonia australis and Calandrinia sp. A novel approach involved the use of a field crop modelling tool, DEVEL2. This optimization program estimates the parameters of selected functions within the development rate models using an iterative process that minimizes sum of squares residual between estimated and observed days for the phenological event. Parameter profiling and jack-knifing are included in DEVEL2 to remove bias from parameter estimates and introduce rigour into the parameter selection process. Development rate of B. australis from planting to first visible floral bud (VFB) was predicted using a multiplicative approach with a curvilinear function to describe temperature responses and a broken linear function to explain photoperiod responses. A similar model was used to describe the development rate of Calandrinia sp., except the photoperiod function was replaced with an exponential vernalization function, which explained a facultative cold requirement and included a coefficient for determining the vernalization ceiling temperature. Temperature was the main environmental factor influencing development rate for VFB to anthesis of both species and was predicted using a linear model. The phenology models for B. australis and Calandrinia sp. described development rate from planting to VFB and from VFB to anthesis in response to temperature and photoperiod or vernalization and may assist modelling efforts of other herbaceous ornamental plants. In addition to crop management, the vernalization function could be used to identify plant communities most at risk from predicted increases in temperature due to global warming.

Miconazole in the treatment of superficial mycoses

Miconazole nitrate (2%) cream was evaluated in the treatment of superficial mycoses. Out of 116 patients having multiple clinical diagnoses, 66 cases were found to be positive by culture. Species of Trichophyton were the predominant etiological agents (in over 60%) followed by Candida species (20%) and Epidermophyton floccosum (15%). All the cases selected for study were followed up to a period of 4–18 months. A cure rate of 94.6 per cent was observed in all the cases where causal organisms were isolated. Significantly high cure rate (66%) was also seen in cases where causal organisms could not be isolated, including cases of tinea versicolor. Results of mycological examination were in confirmity with the clinical results

Mid-urethral slings for treatment of stress urinary incontinence : long- and mid-term follow-up

Urinary incontinence is a common problem, affecting one third of the women at least at some time during their lives. The prevalence of urinary incontinence increases with advancing age, and the everyday impact of incontinence on women and on health services is enormous. Urinary incontinence is usually divided into three different subtypes, of which stress urinary incontinence (SUI) is the most common. Surgical treatment is often needed to cure SUI, and modern mid-urethral sling procedures give the possibility to cure this condition with a low risk of adverse events, a problem often associated with the so-called traditional incontinence operations. Life expectancy among women in Western countries has grown beyond 80 years of age. Long-term efficacy of treatment options for urinary incontinence therefore becomes an important issue in a world with limited eco-nomic resources. The purpose of the present study was to prospectively evaluate the long-term efficacy and safety of the first minimally invasive mid-urethral tape procedure, the Tension-free Vaginal Tape (TVT) procedure. The long-term (5-year) follow-up results of the TVT procedure as a repeat operation af-ter an unsuccessful mid-urethral tape operation were studied and the reasons for failure of the first operation were analyzed. Another purpose was to compare the original TVT procedure with a newer modification, the Tension-free Vaginal Tape Obturator (TVT-O) procedure within a multi-centre, randomized context in order to find out possible differences between these procedures re-garding efficacy and complications and the effects on symptoms of urgency. The first study of the present thesis is a prospective, Nordic, three-centre follow-up study of 90 women suffering from SUI, who were treated by means of the TVT procedure. The mean follow-up time was more than eleven years, and the study is the first to be published in connection with more than ten years of follow-up. The second study is a retrospective analysis of 26 women who were treated with a repeat TVT procedure after an unsuccessful primary mid-urethral tape procedure. The third and fourth studies concern 273 women in seven centres in Finland who were ran-domly assigned to the TVT and TVT-O procedures, the 3-year follow-up results of which are pre-sented in this thesis. After eleven years of follow-up, 90% of the women had a negative cough stress test result and a negative 24-h pad test result. The subjective cure rate measured as the women s global impression of cure was 77%, the rate of improvement 20%, and only 3% thought that the treatment had failed. No late-onset adverse effects were found. The repeat TVT procedure was successful in 75% of the cases when women who were cured and women who were significantly improved were included. The reasons for failure of the first operation could be separated into four different groups: tape material-related, operation technique-related, concomitant illness-related and a group with no identifiable reason. There were no intra-operative complications during the repeat operation. In the randomized trial comparing the TVT with the TVT-O procedure a cough stress test results were negative in 94.6% and 89.5% of the women in the two groups, respectively, after a 3-year follow-up period. There were no statistical differences in the cure rate or the rate of complications be-tween the two procedures. Symptoms of urgency were analyzed more closely and the main finding was that the prevalence of urgency symptoms decreased significantly after both mid-urethral sling procedures. The TVT operation was found to be an effective and safe procedure even after eleven years of follow-up. Long-term follow-up after a repeat TVT procedure revealed that the TVT procedure can well be considered after an unsuccessful mid-urethra tape procedure, because 75% of the patients showed significantly improvement of their incontinence. The TVT and TVT-O procedures showed no statistically significant differences in efficacy and rate of complications after three years of follow-up. In most cases these procedures alleviate preoperative symptoms of urgency and the risk of developing de novo urgency is low.

The use of transvaginal synthetic mesh for anterior vaginal wall prolapse repair: a randomized controlled trial

The aim of the study was to compare the efficacy and safety of transvaginal trocar-guided polypropylene mesh insertion with traditional colporrhaphy for treatment of anterior vaginal wall prolapse.This is a randomized controlled trial in which women with advanced anterior vaginal wall prolapse, at least stage II with Ba a parts per thousand yenaEuro parts per thousand+1 cm according to the Pelvic Organ Prolapse Quantification (POP-Q) classification, were randomly assigned to have either anterior colporrhaphy (n = 39) or repair using trocar-guided transvaginal mesh (n = 40). the primary outcome was objective cure rate of the anterior compartment (point Ba) assessed at the 12-month follow-up visit, with stages 0 and I defined as anatomical success. Secondary outcomes included quantification of other vaginal compartments (POP-Q points), comparison of quality of life by the prolapse quality of life (P-QOL) questionnaire, and complication rate between the groups after 1 year. Study power was fixed as 80 % with 5 % cutoff point (p < 0.05) for statistical significance.The groups were similar regarding demographic and clinical preoperative parameters. Anatomical success rates for colporrhaphy and repair with mesh placement groups were 56.4 vs 82.5 % (95 % confidence interval 0.068-0.54), respectively, and the difference between the groups was statistically significant (p = 0.018). Similar total complication rates were observed in both groups, with tape exposure observed in 5 % of the patients. There was a significant improvement in all P-QOL domains as a result of both procedures (p < 0.001), but they were not distinct between groups (p > 0.05).Trocar-guided transvaginal synthetic mesh for advanced anterior POP repair is associated with a higher anatomical success rate for the anterior compartment compared with traditional colporrhaphy. Quality of life equally improved after both techniques. However, the trial failed to detect differences in P-QOL scores and complication rates between the groups.

Integrated analysis of CANVAS 1 and 2: phase 3, multicenter, randomized, double-blind studies to evaluate the safety and efficacy of ceftaroline versus vancomycin plus aztreonam in complicated skin and skin-structure infection.

BACKGROUND: Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) is a common cause of complicated skin and skin-structure infection (cSSSI). Increasing antimicrobial resistance in cSSSI has led to a need for new safe and effective therapies. Ceftaroline was evaluated as treatment for cSSSI in 2 identical phase 3 clinical trials, the pooled analysis of which is presented here. The primary objective of each trial was to determine the noninferiority of the clinical cure rate achieved with ceftaroline monotherapy, compared with that achieved with vancomycin plus aztreonam combination therapy, in the clinically evaluable (CE) and modified intent-to-treat (MITT) patient populations. METHODS: Adult patients with cSSSI requiring intravenous therapy received ceftaroline (600 mg every 12 h) or vancomycin plus aztreonam (1 g each every 12 h) for 5-14 days. RESULTS: Of 1378 patients enrolled in both trials, 693 received ceftaroline and 685 received vancomycin plus aztreonam. Baseline characteristics of the treatment groups were comparable. Clinical cure rates were similar for ceftaroline and vancomycin plus aztreonam in the CE (91.6% vs 92.7%) and MITT (85.9% vs 85.5%) populations, respectively, as well as in patients infected with MRSA (93.4% vs 94.3%). The rates of adverse events, discontinuations because of an adverse event, serious adverse events, and death also were similar between treatment groups. CONCLUSIONS: Ceftaroline achieved high clinical cure rates, was efficacious against cSSSI caused by MRSA and other common cSSSI pathogens, and was well tolerated, with a safety profile consistent with the cephalosporin class. Ceftaroline has the potential to provide a monotherapy alternative for the treatment of cSSSI. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov identifiers: NCT00424190 for CANVAS 1 and NCT00423657 for CANVAS 2.

Multiphysics simulation of microwave curing in micro-electronics packaging applications

Purpose – This paper aims to present an open-ended microwave curing system for microelectronics components and a numerical analysis framework for virtual testing and prototyping of the system, enabling design of physical prototypes to be optimized, expediting the development process. Design/methodology/approach – An open-ended microwave oven system able to enhance the cure process for thermosetting polymer materials utilised in microelectronics applications is presented. The system is designed to be mounted on a precision placement machine enabling curing of individual components on a circuit board. The design of the system allows the heating pattern and heating rate to be carefully controlled optimising cure rate and cure quality. A multi-physics analysis approach has been adopted to form a numerical model capable of capturing the complex coupling that exists between physical processes. Electromagnetic analysis has been performed using a Yee finite-difference time-domain scheme, while an unstructured finite volume method has been utilized to perform thermophysical analysis. The two solvers are coupled using a sampling-based cross-mapping algorithm. Findings – The numerical results obtained demonstrate that the numerical model is able to obtain solutions for distribution of temperature, rate of cure, degree of cure and thermally induced stresses within an idealised polymer load heated by the proposed microwave system. Research limitations/implications – The work is limited by the absence of experimentally derived material property data and comparative experimental results. However, the model demonstrates that the proposed microwave system would seem to be a feasible method of expediting the cure rate of polymer materials. Originality/value – The findings of this paper will help to provide an understanding of the behaviour of thermosetting polymer materials during microwave cure processing.

Numerical simulation of encapsulant curing within a variable frequency microwave processing system

Curing of encapsulant material in a simplified microelectronics package using an open oven Variable Frequency Microwave (VFM) system is numerically simulated using a coupled solver approach. A numerical framework capable of simulating electromagnetic field distribution within the oven system, plus heat transfer, cure rate, degree of cure and thermally induced stresses within the encapsulant material is presented. The discrete physical processes have been integrated into a fully coupled solution, enabling usefully accurate results to be generated. Numerical results showing the heating and curing of the encapsulant material have been obtained and are presented in this contribution. The requirement to capture inter-process coupling and the variation in dielectric and thermophysical material properties is discussed and illustrated with simulation results.