Evaluation of the cumulative evidence for freedom from BSE in birth cohorts

Substantial resources are used for surveillance of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) despite an extremely low detection rate, especially in healthy slaughtered cattle. We have developed a method based on the geometric waiting time distribution to establish and update the statistical evidence for BSE-freedom for defined birth cohorts using continued surveillance data. The results suggest that currently (data included till September 2004) a birth cohort of Danish cattle born after March 1999 is free from BSE with probability (power) of 0.8746 or 0.8509, depending on the choice of a model for the diagnostic sensitivity. These results apply to an assumed design prevalence of 1 in 10,000 and account for prevalence heterogeneity. The age-dependent, diagnostic sensitivity for the detection of BSE has been identified as major determinant of the power. The incorporation of heterogeneity was deemed adequate on scientific grounds and led to improved power values. We propose our model as a decision tool for possible future modification of the BSE surveillance and discuss public health and international trade implications.

New use of global warming potentials to compare cumulative and short-lived climate pollutants

Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) have requested guidance on common greenhouse gas metrics in accounting for Nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to emission reductions1. Metric choice can affect the relative emphasis placed on reductions of ‘cumulative climate pollutants’ such as carbon dioxide versus ‘short-lived climate pollutants’ (SLCPs), including methane and black carbon2, 3, 4, 5, 6. Here we show that the widely used 100-year global warming potential (GWP100) effectively measures the relative impact of both cumulative pollutants and SLCPs on realized warming 20–40 years after the time of emission. If the overall goal of climate policy is to limit peak warming, GWP100 therefore overstates the importance of current SLCP emissions unless stringent and immediate reductions of all climate pollutants result in temperatures nearing their peak soon after mid-century7, 8, 9, 10, which may be necessary to limit warming to “well below 2 °C” (ref. 1). The GWP100 can be used to approximately equate a one-off pulse emission of a cumulative pollutant and an indefinitely sustained change in the rate of emission of an SLCP11, 12, 13. The climate implications of traditional CO2-equivalent targets are ambiguous unless contributions from cumulative pollutants and SLCPs are specified separately.

Portable sick leave in the Victorian building industry : managing cumulative employee benefits in the absence of employment security

The trend away from full-time permanent employment raises questions about the relevance of traditional approaches to managing and compensating employees. Employment in the Australian building industry is characterised by short-term, project-based employment. Employers and unions in the industry have adopted alternative compensation models to accommodate the short-term nature of employment, most notably through portable benefit schemes. In 1997, the Victorian building industry extended the range of portable benefits to include sick leave. Empirical evidence suggests a relationship between employee absence behaviour and accrual entitlement models. Research reported here supports this link, and suggests that both employers and employees can benefit from an alternative, portable, approach to accrued entitlements. Employers can benefit because employees may be less likely to take an instrumental approach to their entitlements. Employees benefit because they are able to accrue entitlements for the period they remain in the building industry, irrespective of the extent to which they change jobs.

Protection of short-time enamel erosion by different tetrafluoride compounds

objective: This in vitro study aimed to analyse the protective effect of differently concentrated titanium (TiF4), zirconium (ZrF4) and hafnium (HfF4) tetrafluoride on enamel erosion. Methods: Polished enamel surfaces of 36 bovine crowns were covered with tape leaving 4 enamel windows each 3 mm in diameter exposed. The crowns were randomly assigned to six groups (each n = 6) and pretreated with 4% TiF4, 10% TiF4, 4% ZrF4, 10% ZrF4, 4% HfF4 or 10% HfF4 for 4 min (first window), 10 min (second window) or 15 min (third window). The fourth window of each crown was not pretreated and served as control. Erosion was performed stepwise with 1% HCl (pH 2) in five consecutive intervals of each 15 s (total 75 s). Enamel dissolution was quantified by colorimetric determination of phosphate release into the acid. For each tooth, cumulative phosphate loss of enamel pretreated with one of the tetrafluoride compounds was calculated as percentage of the respective control and statistically analysed using two-way ANOVA.Results: Enamel erosion was significantly reduced by TiF4, ZrF4 and HfF4 application. Cumulative phosphate loss (mean % of control, 75 s erosion) after 4-15 min application was significantly lower for 4% ZrF4 (7-11%), 10% ZrF4 (2-6%), 4% HfF4 (11-9%) and 10% HfF4 (12-16%) compared to 4% TiF4 (42-27%) and 10% TiF4 (54-33%). Only for 4% and 10% TiF4, phosphate loss decreased with increasing duration of application, but also increased with increasing acid intervals.Conclusion: TiF4, ZrF4 and HfF4 might protect enamel against short-time erosion, but protection was more enhanced by ZrF4 and HfF4 compared to TiF4 application overtime. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Tensile strength of radio frequency cold plasma treated PET fibers - Part 1: Influence of environment and treatment time

This article reports on a series of experiments with polyethylene terepthalate (PET) treated in a radio frequency plasma reactor using argon and oxygen as a gas fuel, for treatment times equal to 5 s, 20 s, 30 s, and 100 s. The mechanical strength modification of PET fibers, evaluated by tensile tests on monofilaments, showed that oxygen and argon plasma treatment resulted in a decrease in the average tensile strength compared with the untreated fibers. This reduction in tensile strength is more significant for argon plasma and is very sensitive to the treatment time for oxygen plasma. Scanning electron microscopy (SEM) used to analyze the effects of cold plasma treatment on fiber surfaces indicates differences in roughness profiles depending on the type of treatments, which were associated with variations in mechanical strength. Differences in the roughness profile, surveyed through an image analysis method, provided the distance of roughness interval, D-ri. This parameter represents the number of peaks contained in a unit length and was introduced to correlate fiber surface condition, before and after cold plasma treatments, and average tensile strength. Statistical analysis of experimental data, using Weibull cumulative distribution and linear representation, was performed to explain influences of treatment time and environmental effects on mechanical properties. The shape parameter, alpha, and density parameter, beta, from the Weibull distribution function were used to indicate the experimental data range and to confirm the mechanical performance obtained experimentally.

Diastolic blood pressure associated with accumulated work time among drivers and collectors

The relationship between diastolic blood pressure and the variables total cumulative working time and age was examined by regression analysis. The study was carried out among 839 bus drivers and conductors, users of an occupational health center in Campinas, S. Paulo State, Brazil. The main results were a positive association between diastolic blood pressure and cumulative working time, as well as an interaction between this variable and the bus worker's age.

Comparing non-stationary and irregularly spaced time series

In this paper, we present approximate distributions for the ratio of the cumulative wavelet periodograms considering stationary and non-stationary time series generated from independent Gaussian processes. We also adapt an existing procedure to use this statistic and its approximate distribution in order to test if two regularly or irregularly spaced time series are realizations of the same generating process. Simulation studies show good size and power properties for the test statistic. An application with financial microdata illustrates the test usefulness. We conclude advocating the use of these approximate distributions instead of the ones obtained through randomizations, mainly in the case of irregular time series. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A BAYESIAN HIERARCHICAL MODEL FOR CONSTRAINED DISTRIBUTED LAG FUNCTIONS: ESTIMATING THE TIME COURSE OF HOSPITALIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH AIR POLLUTION EXPOSURE

Numerous time series studies have provided strong evidence of an association between increased levels of ambient air pollution and increased levels of hospital admissions, typically at 0, 1, or 2 days after an air pollution episode. An important research aim is to extend existing statistical models so that a more detailed understanding of the time course of hospitalization after exposure to air pollution can be obtained. Information about this time course, combined with prior knowledge about biological mechanisms, could provide the basis for hypotheses concerning the mechanism by which air pollution causes disease. Previous studies have identified two important methodological questions: (1) How can we estimate the shape of the distributed lag between increased air pollution exposure and increased mortality or morbidity? and (2) How should we estimate the cumulative population health risk from short-term exposure to air pollution? Distributed lag models are appropriate tools for estimating air pollution health effects that may be spread over several days. However, estimation for distributed lag models in air pollution and health applications is hampered by the substantial noise in the data and the inherently weak signal that is the target of investigation. We introduce an hierarchical Bayesian distributed lag model that incorporates prior information about the time course of pollution effects and combines information across multiple locations. The model has a connection to penalized spline smoothing using a special type of penalty matrix. We apply the model to estimating the distributed lag between exposure to particulate matter air pollution and hospitalization for cardiovascular and respiratory disease using data from a large United States air pollution and hospitalization database of Medicare enrollees in 94 counties covering the years 1999-2002.

Proliferative kidney disease (PKD) of rainbow trout: temperature- and time-related changes of Tetracapsuloides bryosalmonae DNA in the kidney

Proliferative kidney disease (PKD) of salmonids, caused by Tetracapsuloides bryosalmonae, can lead to high mortalities at elevated water temperature. We evaluated the hypothesis that this mortality is caused by increasing parasite intensity. T. bryosalmonae-infected rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) were reared at different water temperatures and changes in parasite concentrations in the kidney were compared to cumulative mortalities. Results of parasite quantification by a newly developed real-time PCR agreed with the number of parasites detected by immunohistochemistry, except for very low or very high parasite loads because of heterogenous distribution of the parasites in the kidney. Two experiments were performed, where fish were exposed to temperatures of 12, 14, 16, 18 or 19 degrees C after an initial exposure to an infectious environment at 12-16 degrees C resulting in 100% prevalence of infected fish after 5 to 14 days of exposure. While mortalities differed significantly between all investigated water temperatures, significant differences in final parasite loads were only found between fish kept at 12 degrees C and all other groups. Differences in parasite load between fish kept at 14 degrees C to 19 degrees C were not significant. These findings provide evidence that there is no direct link between parasite intensity and fish mortality.

Non-AIDS defining cancers in the D:A:D Study - time trends and predictors of survival: a cohort study

Background Non-AIDS defining cancers (NADC) are an important cause of morbidity and mortality in HIV-positive individuals. Using data from a large international cohort of HIV-positive individuals, we described the incidence of NADC from 2004–2010, and described subsequent mortality and predictors of these. Methods Individuals were followed from 1st January 2004/enrolment in study, until the earliest of a new NADC, 1st February 2010, death or six months after the patient’s last visit. Incidence rates were estimated for each year of follow-up, overall and stratified by gender, age and mode of HIV acquisition. Cumulative risk of mortality following NADC diagnosis was summarised using Kaplan-Meier methods, with follow-up for these analyses from the date of NADC diagnosis until the patient’s death, 1st February 2010 or 6 months after the patient’s last visit. Factors associated with mortality following NADC diagnosis were identified using multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression. Results Over 176,775 person-years (PY), 880 (2.1%) patients developed a new NADC (incidence: 4.98/1000PY [95% confidence interval 4.65, 5.31]). Over a third of these patients (327, 37.2%) had died by 1st February 2010. Time trends for lung cancer, anal cancer and Hodgkin’s lymphoma were broadly consistent. Kaplan-Meier cumulative mortality estimates at 1, 3 and 5 years after NADC diagnosis were 28.2% [95% CI 25.1-31.2], 42.0% [38.2-45.8] and 47.3% [42.4-52.2], respectively. Significant predictors of poorer survival after diagnosis of NADC were lung cancer (compared to other cancer types), male gender, non-white ethnicity, and smoking status. Later year of diagnosis and higher CD4 count at NADC diagnosis were associated with improved survival. The incidence of NADC remained stable over the period 2004–2010 in this large observational cohort. Conclusions The prognosis after diagnosis of NADC, in particular lung cancer and disseminated cancer, is poor but has improved somewhat over time. Modifiable risk factors, such as smoking and low CD4 counts, were associated with mortality following a diagnosis of NADC.

MEASURING THE EFFECT OF ILLNESS ON THE EXPECTED REMAINING SERVICE TIME FOR THE ACTIVE DUTY ARMY: A LIFE TABLE APPROACH

A life table methodology was developed which estimates the expected remaining Army service time and the expected remaining Army sick time by years of service for the United States Army population. A measure of illness impact was defined as the ratio of expected remaining Army sick time to the expected remaining Army service time. The variances of the resulting estimators were developed on the basis of current data. The theory of partial and complete competing risks was considered for each type of decrement (death, administrative separation, and medical separation) and for the causes of sick time.^ The methodology was applied to world-wide U.S. Army data for calendar year 1978. A total of 669,493 enlisted personnel and 97,704 officers were reported on active duty as of 30 September 1978. During calendar year 1978, the Army Medical Department reported 114,647 inpatient discharges and 1,767,146 sick days. Although the methodology is completely general with respect to the definition of sick time, only sick time associated with an inpatient episode was considered in this study.^ Since the temporal measure was years of Army service, an age-adjusting process was applied to the life tables for comparative purposes. Analyses were conducted by rank (enlisted and officer), race and sex, and were based on the ratio of expected remaining Army sick time to expected remaining Army service time. Seventeen major diagnostic groups, classified by the Eighth Revision, International Classification of Diseases, Adapted for Use In The United States, were ranked according to their cumulative (across years of service) contribution to expected remaining sick time.^ The study results indicated that enlisted personnel tend to have more expected hospital-associated sick time relative to their expected Army service time than officers. Non-white officers generally have more expected sick time relative to their expected Army service time than white officers. This racial differential was not supported within the enlisted population. Females tend to have more expected sick time relative to their expected Army service time than males. This tendency remained after diagnostic groups 580-629 (Genitourinary System) and 630-678 (Pregnancy and Childbirth) were removed. Problems associated with the circulatory system, digestive system and musculoskeletal system were among the three leading causes of cumulative sick time across years of service. ^

Assessing the Environmental Protection Agency's guidelines for cumulative risk assessment: Are they suitable for state agencies and EPA regional offices?

In the field of health risk analysis, cumulative risk assessment (CRA) is a necessary, although undeniably more complex approach to understanding the mixture of stressors, whether chemical or psychosocial, that exist in our environment, in all the pathways through which the chemicals may evolve—air, soil, or water, as well as the accumulation of these exposures over time. Related, or attached to the developing awareness of scientists understanding this mix of combined health effects is the burgeoning of the environmental justice movement, in which educated community advocates and even affected community members have called attention to evidence of a higher pollution burden in minority and/or lower SES communities. The intention of this paper is to 1) examine the development and understanding of CRA, primarily by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; 2) to assess several states agencies and some EPA regional offices' interpretation of CRA, again based primarily on EPA guidance, and 3) to analyze how CRA might be refined in its implementation—giving some cues as to how the EPA may more effectively interact with communities interested in CRA.^

Collection of data on soil carbon (particulate and dissolved) in the Jena Experiment (Main Experiment, time series since 2002)

This data set contains three time series of measurements of soil carbon (particular and dissolved) from the main experiment plots of a large grassland biodiversity experiment (the Jena Experiment; see further details below). In the main experiment, 82 grassland plots of 20 x 20 m were established from a pool of 60 species belonging to four functional groups (grasses, legumes, tall and small herbs). In May 2002, varying numbers of plant species from this species pool were sown into the plots to create a gradient of plant species richness (1, 2, 4, 8, 16 and 60 species) and functional richness (1, 2, 3, 4 functional groups). Plots were maintained by bi-annual weeding and mowing. 1. Particulate soil carbon: Stratified soil sampling was performed every two years since before sowing in April 2002 and was repeated in April 2004, 2006 and 2008 to a depth of 30 cm segmented to a depth resolution of 5 cm giving six depth subsamples per core. Total carbon concentration was analyzed on ball-milled subsamples by an elemental analyzer at 1150°C. Inorganic carbon concentration was measured by elemental analysis at 1150°C after removal of organic carbon for 16 h at 450°C in a muffle furnace. Organic carbon concentration was calculated as the difference between both measurements of total and inorganic carbon. 2. Particulate soil carbon (high intensity sampling): In one block of the Jena Experiment soil samples were taken to a depth of 1 m (segmented to a depth resolution of 5 cm giving 20 depth subsamples per core) with three replicates per block ever 5 years starting before sowing in April 2002. Samples were processed as for the more frequent sampling. 3. Dissolved organic carbon: Suction plates installed on the field site in 10, 20, 30 and 60 cm depth were used to sample soil pore water. Cumulative soil solution was sampled biweekly and analyzed for dissolved organic carbon concentration by a high TOC elemental analyzer. Annual mean values of DOC are provided.

A time-slice study in Heinrich Stadial 1 and Mid Holocene sediment cores off northern Senegal

Sediment dynamics in limnic, fluvial and marine environments can be assessed by granulometric and rock-magnetic methodologies. While classical grain-size analysis by sieving or settling mainly bears information on composition and transport, the magnetic mineral assemblages reflect to a larger extent the petrology and weathering conditions in the sediment source areas. Here, we combine both methods to investigate Late Quaternary marine sediments from five cores along a transect across the continental slope off Senegal. This region near the modern summer Intertropical Convergence Zone is particularly sensitive to climate change and receives sediments from several aeolian, fluvial and marine sources. From each of the investigated five GeoB sediment cores (494-2956 m water depth) two time slices were processed which represent contrasting climatic conditions: the arid Heinrich Stadial 1 (~ 15 kyr BP) and the humid Mid Holocene (~ 6 kyr BP). Each sediment sample was split into 16 grain-size fractions ranging from 1.6 to 500 µm. Concentration and grain-size indicative magnetic parameters (susceptibility, SIRM, HIRM, ARM and ARM/IRM) were determined at room temperature for each of these fractions. The joint consideration of whole sediment and magnetic mineral grain-size distributions allows to address several important issues: (i) distinction of two aeolian sediment fractions, one carried by the north-easterly trade winds (40-63 µm) and the other by the overlying easterly Harmattan wind (10-20 µm) as well as a fluvial fraction assigned to the Senegal River (< 10 µm); (ii) identification of three terrigenous sediment source areas: southern Sahara and Sahel dust (low fine-grained magnetite amounts and a comparatively high haematite content), dust from Senegalese coastal dunes (intermediate fine-grained magnetite and haematite contents) and soils from the upper reaches of the Senegal River (high fine-grained magnetite content); (iii) detection of partial diagenetic dissolution of fine magnetite particles as a function of organic input and shore distance; (iv) analysis of magnetic properties of marine carbonates dominating the grain-size fractions 63-500 µm.