Banking Contagion under Different Exchange Rate Regimes in CEE

The global crisis of 2008 caused both liquidity shortage and increasing insolvency in the banking system. The study focuses on credit default contagion in the Central and Eastern European (CEE) region, which originated in bank runs generated by non-performing loans granted to non-financial clients. In terms of methodology, the paper relies on one hand on review of the literature, and on the other hand on a data survey with comparative and regression analysis. To uncover credit default contagion, the research focuses on the combined impact of foreign exchange rates and foreign private indebtedness.

Anti-HBs levels among children and adolescents with complete immunization schedule against hepatitis B virus. A cross-sectional study in Blumenau, State of Santa Catarina, Brazil, 2007-2008

INTRODUCTION: Vaccination is the main tool for preventing hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection; however, following the completion of the vaccination series, the concentrations of anti-HBs can decline over the years and reach levels less than 10mIU/mL. The persistence of protection in these individuals is still unknown. The present study aimed to determine the anti-HBs antibody levels among children and adolescents who had received a complete vaccination course for hepatitis B. METHODS: Antibodies against HBV surface antigen (anti-HBs) were tested in 371 individuals aged 10 to 15 years-old. RESULTS: Volunteers who showed undetectable quantities of anti-HBs accounted for 10.2% of the population studied and 39.9% presented antibody titers of less than 10mIU/mL. Anti-HBs > 10mIU/mL were verified in 49.9%. CONCLUSIONS: These results corroborate other studies indicating levels of anti-HBs below 10mIU/mL in vaccinated individuals. Additional studies are required to assess whether this indicates susceptibility to HBV infection and the need and age for booster doses.

Exchange rate pressure in Angola

The objective of this work is to develop an operational tool to analyze exchange rate pressure in the context of Angola. The Angolan economy exhibits a number of relevant characteristics: a closed financial account, a partially controlled current account, a highly dollarized economy and exports (oil) price determined in World markets. These features have a direct effect on the demand of foreign currency and motivate their inclusion in the specification of a model for Angola. The model provides the rational for a measure of an exchange market rate pressure (EMP) index that contains exports changes, imports changes, the foreign interest rate and inflation and the change in foreign reserves corrected for a measure dollarization. The empirical performance new measure is comparable (slightly better) to the performance of the EMP indexes obtained in Eichengreen Rose and Wyplosz (1994) and Klassen and Jager (2011).

The short and long-run determinants of the real exchange rate in Mexico

This paper explores the real exchange rate behavior in Mexico from 1960 until 2005. Since the empirical analysis reveals that the real exchange rate is not mean reverting, we propose that economic fundamental variables affect its evolution in the long-run. Therefore, based on equilibrium exchange rate paradigms, we propose a simple model of real exchange rate determination which includes the relative labor productivity, the real interest rates and the net foreign assets over a long period of time. Our analysis also considers the dynamic adjustment in response to shocks through impulse response functions derived from the multivariate VAR model.

Structural Breaks in the Real Exchange Rate and Real Interest Rate Relationship

In this paper we empirically examine the relationship between the real exchange rate and real interest rate differentials using recent econometric methods robust to potential structural breaks. Generally, our study provides evidence of this relationship in the long-run context. More specifically, we first focus on the UK-US relationship, and interestingly find limited evidence of this long-run relationship using traditional methods. But when an approach robust to endogenously determined structural breaks is employed, we find evidence that the real interest rate differential is an important determinant of the real exchange rate. Secondly, in order to investigate the relevance of structural shifts in a more global context, we carry out multiple country analysis. While providing evidence of this long-run relationship, European data suggest that the presence of structural breaks is not very common across countries and is indeed country-specific.

Exchange rate regulation, the behavior of exchange rates, and macroeconomic stability in Brazil

In the last two decades an entirely new set of rules governing the foreign exchange transactions was established in Brazil, substituting for the framework inherited from the 1930s. Foreign exchange controls were dismantled and a floating exchange rate regime replaced different forms of peg. In this paper we argue that although successful by comparison to previous experiences, the current arrangement has important flaws that should be addressed. We discuss how it first led to high volatility and extremely high interest rates, which, when overcome, gave way to a long lasting appreciation of the real exchange rate with adverse consequences to industry.

Institutions, credibility and crisis: the inconsistencies of Argentine exchange rate policy (1991-2006)

The purpose of this article is twofold. The first is to explain the time inconsistencies of the convertibility regime that led to the 2001 crisis. The argument suggests that the credibility requirements for convertibility induced a dynamic of legal, fiscal, financial and external commitments that increased exit costs and time inconsistencies. The second objective is to explain the tensions of the floating regime that replaced convertibility in 2002. We describe the effects of a floating exchange rate on macroeconomic imbalance and the growing tension between competitiveness and inflation.

The Exchange Rate in a Dynamic-Optimizing Current Account Model with Nominal Rigidities: a Quantitative Investigation.

This paper studies a dynamic-optimizing model of a semi-small open economy with sticky nominal prices and wages. the model exhibits exchange rate overshooting in response to money supply shocks. the predicted variability of nominal and real exchange rates is roughly consistent with that of G7 effective exchange rates during the post-Bretton Woods era.

University of Southampton thesis chapter template for MS Word 2007/2010/2013/2016 for PC and Word 2008/2011/2016 for Apple

The University provides a template for the whole of a thesis but if you wish to construct a thesis by using separate files you can use this file as template for those. This template has mirror margins to account for double sided printing and odd and even page headers. Support materials for using the template are referenced near the start of the file. You will weant to use this in conjunction with the Front Matter http://www.edshare.soton.ac.uk/9405/ and End Matter templates http://www.edshare.soton.ac.uk/11998/.

University of Southampton thesis front matter template for use with MS Word 2007/2010/2013/2016 for PC and 2008/2011/2016 for Apple

The University provides a template for the whole of a thesis but if you wish to construct a thesis by using separate files you can use this file for the introductory section. This file contains all of the sections required (Title Page, Abstract, Table of Contents etc). It also has mirror margins for double sided printing and has different odd and even page headers. Support materials for using the template are referenced near the start of the file. You will want to use this in conjunction with the Chapter http://www.edshare.soton.ac.uk/9403/ and End Matter templates http://www.edshare.soton.ac.uk/11998/

Análisis de la política pública distrital para la reintegración de excombatientes de grupos armados ilegales en Bogotá en el marco de las administraciones de Luis Eduardo Garzón (2004-2007) y Samuel Moreno (2008-2011)

La presente monografía analiza el proceso de génesis de la política pública distrital para la reintegración de excombatientes en Bogotá, así como los momentos de cambio de dicha política durante las administraciones de los alcaldes Luis Eduardo Garzón y Samuel Moreno. Para este fin, esta monografía recurre a enfoques teóricos del policy change, incluyendo el “Enfoque de Corrientes Múltiples” de John Kingdon, el modelo de formación de la agenda desarrollado por Charles Elder y Roger Cobb, y la “Teoría del Equilibrio Puntuado” de Frank Baumgartner y Bryan Jones. Con base en entrevistas semi-estructuradas a funcionarios de los programas distritales de atención a los desmovilizados y fuentes secundarias, la presente investigación describe las acciones emprendidas por las diferentes administraciones en el periodo 2003-2013 y analiza los cambios que la política experimentó en sus instrumentos de intervención. Así, las acciones iniciales que hacían énfasis en el desmovilizado y su núcleo familiar con el propósito de fortalecer el tejido social, dieron paso a acciones enfocadas principalmente en la reintegración económica de los desmovilizados. Un análisis crítico del proceso de formación de esta política pública y sus principales cambios constituye no solo una contribución empírica a la extensa literatura sobre policy change, sino que provee lecciones para futuros procesos de reintegración de excombatientes en contextos urbanos.

Quantile forecasts of daily exchange rate returns from forecasts of realized volatility

Quantile forecasts are central to risk management decisions because of the widespread use of Value-at-Risk. A quantile forecast is the product of two factors: the model used to forecast volatility, and the method of computing quantiles from the volatility forecasts. In this paper we calculate and evaluate quantile forecasts of the daily exchange rate returns of five currencies. The forecasting models that have been used in recent analyses of the predictability of daily realized volatility permit a comparison of the predictive power of different measures of intraday variation and intraday returns in forecasting exchange rate variability. The methods of computing quantile forecasts include making distributional assumptions for future daily returns as well as using the empirical distribution of predicted standardized returns with both rolling and recursive samples. Our main findings are that the Heterogenous Autoregressive model provides more accurate volatility and quantile forecasts for currencies which experience shifts in volatility, such as the Canadian dollar, and that the use of the empirical distribution to calculate quantiles can improve forecasts when there are shifts