Impact of strong psychologically stressful events on the development of Alzheimer disease: a possible role of epigenetic?

Alzheimer disease (AD) is the most common neurodegenerative dementia. It leads to a progressive loss of cognitive functions, especially memory. Most of AD cases are sporadic, resulting from the interplay of genetic and environmental factors which get involved in the regulation of expression of thousands of genes, a mechanism called epigenetic. Epigenetic modifications, by modifying genes transcription, help to orchestrate the phenotypical changes linked to development, aging or even diseases and cancer. In AD, recent studies showed rapid, dynamic and persistent epigenetic mutations that are believed to have consequences on brain functions. One of the earliest biomarker of AD is amylo ̈ıd-beta (Aβ) deposition in the brain. According to current studies, deposition of amylo ̈ıd-beta begins approximately 20 years before the first symptoms linked to the disease which questions us about what could have happened around or before that time. In this exploratory study, we searched if there could be any correlation between the experience of a strong psychologically stressful event in life, which could have lead to several epigenetic changes and therefore the occurrence of Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) or AD approximately 30 years later, and to see if there is a difference in the delay between amnestic MCI and AD patients.

Dynamic Hedging with Credit Default Swaps: Empirical Evidence from the European Monetary Union

This thesis investigates the effectiveness of time-varying hedging during the financial crisis of 2007 and the European Debt Crisis of 2010. In addition, the seven test economies are part of the European Monetary Union and these countries are in different economical states. Time-varying hedge ratio was constructed using conditional variances and correlations, which were created by using multivariate GARCH models. Here we have used three different underlying portfolios: national equity markets, government bond markets and the combination of these two. These underlying portfolios were hedged by using credit default swaps. Empirical part includes the in-sample and out-of-sample analysis, which are constructed by using constant and dynamic models. Moreover, almost in every case dynamic models outperform the constant ones in the determination of the hedge ratio. We could not find any statistically significant evidence to support the use of asymmetric dynamic conditional correlation model. In addition, our findings are in line with prior literature and support the use of time-varying hedge ratio. Finally, we found that in some cases credit default swaps are not suitable instruments for hedging and they act more as a speculative instrument.

Comparison of AutoSetä and polysomnography for the detection of apnea-hypopnea events

The use of the flow vs time relationship obtained with the nasal prongs of the AutoSetä (AS) system (diagnosis mode) has been proposed to detect apneas and hypopneas in patients with reasonable nasal patency. Our aim was to compare the accuracy of AS to that of a computerized polysomnographic (PSG) system. The study was conducted on 56 individuals (45 men) with clinical characteristics of obstructive sleep apnea (OSA). Their mean (± SD) age was 44.6 ± 12 years and their body mass index was 31.3 ± 7 kg/m2. Data were submitted to parametric analysis to determine the agreement between methods and the intraclass correlation coefficient was calculated. The Student t-test and Bland and Altman plots were also used. Twelve patients had an apnea-hypopnea index (AHI) <10 in bed and 20 had values >40. The mean (± SD) AHI PSG index of 37.6 (28.8) was significantly lower (P = 0.0003) than AHI AS (41.8 (25.3)), but there was a high intraclass correlation coefficient (0.93), with 0.016 variance. For a threshold of AHI of 20, AS showed 73.0% accuracy, 97% sensitivity and 60% specificity, with positive and negative predictive values of 78% and 93%, respectively. Sensitivity, specificity and negative predictive values increased in parallel to the increase in AHI threshold for detecting OSA. However, when the differences of AHI PSG-AS were plotted against their means, the limits of agreement between the methods (95% of the differences) were +13 and -22, showing the discrepancy between the AHI values obtained with PSG and AS. Finally, cubic regression analysis was used to better predict the result of AHI PSG as a function of the method proposed, i.e., AHI AS. We conclude that, despite these differences, AHI measured by AutoSetä can be useful for the assessment of patients with high pre-test clinical probability of OSA, for whom standard PSG is not possible as an initial step in diagnosis.

Confidence sets for asset correlations in portfolio credit risk

Asset correlations are of critical importance in quantifying portfolio credit risk and economic capitalin financial institutions. Estimation of asset correlation with rating transition data has focusedon the point estimation of the correlation without giving any consideration to the uncertaintyaround these point estimates. In this article we use Bayesian methods to estimate a dynamicfactor model for default risk using rating data (McNeil et al., 2005; McNeil and Wendin, 2007).Bayesian methods allow us to formally incorporate human judgement in the estimation of assetcorrelation, through the prior distribution and fully characterize a confidence set for the correlations.Results indicate: i) a two factor model rather than the one factor model, as proposed bythe Basel II framework, better represents the historical default data. ii) importance of unobservedfactors in this type of models is reinforced and point out that the levels of the implied asset correlationscritically depend on the latent state variable used to capture the dynamics of default,as well as other assumptions on the statistical model. iii) the posterior distributions of the assetcorrelations show that the Basel recommended bounds, for this parameter, undermine the levelof systemic risk.

A survey of gradual solar energetic particle events

We develop a database of 110 gradual solar energetic particle (SEP) events, over the period 1967–2006, providing estimates of event onset, duration, fluence, and peak flux for protons of energy E > 60 MeV. The database is established mainly from the energetic proton flux data distributed in the OMNI 2 data set; however, we also utilize the McMurdo neutron monitor and the energetic proton flux from GOES missions. To aid the development of the gradual SEP database, we establish a method with which the homogeneity of the energetic proton flux record is improved. A comparison between other SEP databases and the database developed here is presented which discusses the different algorithms used to define an event. Furthermore, we investigate the variation of gradual SEP occurrence and fluence with solar cycle phase, sunspot number (SSN), and interplanetary magnetic field intensity (Bmag) over solar cycles 20–23. We find that the occurrence and fluence of SEP events vary with the solar cycle phase. Correspondingly, we find a positive correlation between SEP occurrence and solar activity as determined by SSN and Bmag, while the mean fluence in individual events decreases with the same measures of solar activity. Therefore, although the number of events decreases when solar activity is low, the events that do occur at such times have higher fluence. Thus, large events such as the “Carrington flare” may be more likely at lower levels of solar activity. These results are discussed in the context of other similar investigations.

Comparative genomics of Brachyspira pilosicoli strains: genome rearrangements, reductions and correlation of genetic compliment with phenotypic diversity.

Background. The anaerobic spirochaete Brachyspira pilosicoli causes enteric disease in avian, porcine and human hosts, amongst others. To date, the only available genome sequence of B. pilosicoli is that of strain 95/1000, a porcine isolate. In the first intra-species genome comparison within the Brachyspira genus, we report the whole genome sequence of B. pilosicoli B2904, an avian isolate, the incomplete genome sequence of B. pilosicoli WesB, a human isolate, and the comparisons with B. pilosicoli 95/1000. We also draw on incomplete genome sequences from three other Brachyspira species. Finally we report the first application of the high-throughput Biolog phenotype screening tool on the B. pilosicoli strains for detailed comparisons between genotype and phenotype. Results. Feature and sequence genome comparisons revealed a high degree of similarity between the three B. pilosicoli strains, although the genomes of B2904 and WesB were larger than that of 95/1000 (~2,765, 2.890 and 2.596 Mb, respectively). Genome rearrangements were observed which correlated largely with the positions of mobile genetic elements. Through comparison of the B2904 and WesB genomes with the 95/1000 genome, features that we propose are non-essential due to their absence from 95/1000 include a peptidase, glycine reductase complex components and transposases. Novel bacteriophages were detected in the newly-sequenced genomes, which appeared to have involvement in intra- and inter-species horizontal gene transfer. Phenotypic differences predicted from genome analysis, such as the lack of genes for glucuronate catabolism in 95/1000, were confirmed by phenotyping. Conclusions. The availability of multiple B. pilosicoli genome sequences has allowed us to demonstrate the substantial genomic variation that exists between these strains, and provides an insight into genetic events that are shaping the species. In addition, phenotype screening allowed determination of how genotypic differences translated to phenotype. Further application of such comparisons will improve understanding of the metabolic capabilities of Brachyspira species.

The link between the Barents Sea and ENSO events simulated by NEMO model

An analysis of observational data in the Barents Sea along a meridian at 33°30' E between 70°30' and 72°30' N has reported a negative correlation between El Niño/La Niña Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events and water temperature in the top 200 m: the temperature drops about 0.5 °C during warm ENSO events while during cold ENSO events the top 200 m layer of the Barents Sea is warmer. Results from 1 and 1/4-degree global NEMO models show a similar response for the whole Barents Sea. During the strong warm ENSO event in 1997–1998 an anomalous anticyclonic atmospheric circulation over the Barents Sea enhances heat loses, as well as substantially influencing the Barents Sea inflow from the North Atlantic, via changes in ocean currents. Under normal conditions along the Scandinavian peninsula there is a warm current entering the Barents Sea from the North Atlantic, however after the 1997–1998 event this current is weakened. During 1997–1998 the model annual mean temperature in the Barents Sea is decreased by about 0.8 °C, also resulting in a higher sea ice volume. In contrast during the cold ENSO events in 1999–2000 and 2007–2008, the model shows a lower sea ice volume, and higher annual mean temperatures in the upper layer of the Barents Sea of about 0.7 °C. An analysis of model data shows that the strength of the Atlantic inflow in the Barents Sea is the main cause of heat content variability, and is forced by changing pressure and winds in the North Atlantic. However, surface heat-exchange with the atmosphere provides the means by which the Barents sea heat budget relaxes to normal in the subsequent year after the ENSO events.

Diurnal warm-layer events in the western Mediterranean and European shelf seas

We characterize near-surface ocean diurnal warm-layer events, using satellite observations and fields from numerical weather forecasting. The study covers April to September, 2006, over the area 11°W to 17°E and 35°N to 57°N, with 0.1° cells. We use hourly satellite SSTs from which peak amplitudes of diurnal cycles in SST (dSSTs) can be estimated with error ∼0.3 K. The diurnal excursions of SST observed are spatially and temporally coherent. The largest dSSTs exceed 6 K, affect 0.01% of the surface, and are seen in the Mediterranean, North and Irish Seas. There is an anti-correlation between the magnitude and the horizontal length scale of dSST events. Events wherein dSST exceeds 4 K have length scales of ≤40 km. From the frequency distribution of different measures of wind-speed minima, we infer that extreme dSST maxima arise where conditions of low wind speed are sustained from early morning to mid afternoon.

Plastic and evolutionary responses to heat stress in a temperate dung fly: negative correlation between basal and induced heat tolerance?

Extreme weather events such as heat waves are becoming more frequent and intense. Populations can cope with elevated heat stress by evolving higher basal heat tolerance (evolutionary response) and/or stronger induced heat tolerance (plastic response). However, there is ongoing debate about whether basal and induced heat tolerance are negatively correlated and whether adaptive potential in heat tolerance is sufficient under ongoing climate warming. To evaluate the evolutionary potential of basal and induced heat tolerance, we performed experimental evolution on a temperate source 4 population of the dung fly Sepsis punctum. Offspring of flies adapted to three thermal selection regimes (Hot, Cold and Reference) were subjected to acute heat stress after having been exposed to either a hot-acclimation or non-acclimation pretreatment. As different traits may respond differently to temperature stress, several physiological and life history traits were assessed. Condition dependence of the response was evaluated by exposing juveniles to different levels of developmental (food restriction/rearing density) stress. Heat knockdown times were highest, whereas acclimation effects were lowest in the Hot selection regime, indicating a negative association between basal and induced heat tolerance. However, survival, adult longevity, fecundity and fertility did not show such a pattern. Acclimation had positive effects in heat-shocked flies, but in the absence of heat stress hot-acclimated flies had reduced life spans relative to nonacclimated ones, thereby revealing a potential cost of acclimation. Moreover, body size positively affected heat tolerance and unstressed individuals were less prone to heat stress than stressed flies, offering support for energetic costs associated with heat tolerance. Overall, our results indicate that heat tolerance of temperate insects can evolve under rising temperatures, but this response could be limited by a negative relationship between basal and induced thermotolerance, and may involve some but not other fitness-related traits.

Correlation between thermoluminescence sensitivity and crystallization temperatures of quartz: Potential application in geothermometry

The thermoluminescence (TL) characteristics of quartz are highly dependent of its thermal history. Based on the enhancement of quartz luminescence occurred after heating, some authors proposed to use quartz TL to recover thermal events that affected quartz crystals. However, little is know about the influence of the temperature of quartz crystallization on its TL characteristics. In the present study, we evaluate the TL sensitivity and dose response curves of hydrothermal and metamorphic quartz with crystallization temperatures from 209 +/- 15 to 633 +/- 27 degrees C determined through fluid inclusion and mineral chemistry analysis. The studied crystals present a cooling thermal history, which allow the acquiring of their natural TL without influence of heating after crystallization. The TL curves of the studied samples present two main components formed by different peaks overlapped around 110 C and 200-400 degrees C. The TL sensitivity in the 200-400 degrees C region increases linearly with the temperature of quartz crystallization. No relationship was observed between temperatures of quartz crystallization and saturation doses (<100 Gy). The elevated TL sensitivity of the high temperature quartz is attributed to the control exerted by the temperature of crystallization on the substitution of Si(4+) by ions such as Al(3+) and Ti(4+), which produce defects responsible for luminescence phenomena. The linear relationship observed between TL in the 200-400 degrees C region and crystallization temperature has potential use as a quartz geothermometer. The relative abundance of quartz in the earth crust and the easiness to measure TL are advantageous in relation to geothermometry methods based on chemistry of other minerals. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analysis of contagion from the constant conditional correlation model with Markov regime switching

Over the last decades, the analysis of the transmissions of international nancial events has become the subject of many academic studies focused on multivariate volatility models volatility. The goal of this study is to evaluate the nancial contagion between stock market returns. The econometric approach employed was originally presented by Pelletier (2006), named Regime Switching Dynamic Correlation (RSDC). This methodology involves the combination of Constant Conditional Correlation Model (CCC) proposed by Bollerslev (1990) with Markov Regime Switching Model suggested by Hamilton and Susmel (1994). A modi cation was made in the original RSDC model, the introduction of the GJR-GARCH model formulated in Glosten, Jagannathan e Runkle (1993), on the equation of the conditional univariate variances to allow asymmetric e ects in volatility be captured. The database was built with the series of daily closing stock market indices in the United States (SP500), United Kingdom (FTSE100), Brazil (IBOVESPA) and South Korea (KOSPI) for the period from 02/01/2003 to 09/20/2012. Throughout the work the methodology was compared with others most widespread in the literature, and the model RSDC with two regimes was de ned as the most appropriate for the selected sample. The set of results provide evidence for the existence of nancial contagion between markets of the four countries considering the de nition of nancial contagion from the World Bank called very restrictive. Such a conclusion should be evaluated carefully considering the wide diversity of de nitions of contagion in the literature.

Measurement of Spin Correlation in t(t)over-bar Production Using a Matrix Element Approach

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Evidence for Spin Correlation in t(t)over-bar Production

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Time-course of neuroendocrine changes and its correlation with hypertension induced by ethanol consumption

Ethanol (ETOH) consumption has been associated with endocrine and autonomic changes, including the development of hypertension. However, the sequence of pathophysiological events underlying the emergence of this effect is poorly understood. Aims: This study aimed to establish a time-course correlation between neuroendocrine and cardiovascular changes contributing to the development of hypertension following ETOH consumption. Methods: Male adult Wistar rats were subjected to the intake of increasing ETOH concentrations in their drinking water (first week: 5%, second week: 10%, third and fourth weeks: 20% v/v). Results: ETOH consumption decreased plasma and urinary volumes, as well as body weight and fluid intake. Furthermore, plasma osmolality, plasma sodium and urinary osmolality were elevated in the ETOH-treated rats. ETOH intake also induced a progressive increase in the mean arterial pressure (MAP), without affecting heart rate. Initially, this increasein MAP was correlated with increased plasma concentrations of adrenaline and noradrenaline. After the second week of ETOH treatment, plasma catecholamines returned to basal levels, and incremental increases were observed in plasma concentrations of vasopressin (AVP) and angiotensin II (ANG II). Conversely, plasma oxytocin, atrial natriuretic peptide, prolactin and the hypothalamus-pituitary-adrenal axis components were not significantly altered by ETOH. Conclusions: Taken together, these results suggest that increased sympathetic activity may contribute to the early increase in MAP observed inETOHtreated rats. However, the maintenance of this effect may be predominantly regulated by the long-term increase in the secretion of other circulating factors, such as AVP and ANG II, the secretion of both hormones being stimulated by the ETOH-induced dehydration. © The Author 2013. Medical Council on Alcohol and Oxford University Press. All rights reserved.

Medical adverse events in elderly hospitalized patients: A prospective study

OBJECTIVES: To determine the frequency of medical adverse events in elderly patients admitted to an acute care geriatric unit, the predictive factors of occurrence, and the correlation between adverse events and hospital mortality rates. METHODS: This prospective study included 171 admissions of patients aged 60 years and older in the acute care geriatric unit in a teaching hospital in Brazil between 2007 and 2008. The following variables were assessed at admission: the patient age, gender, number of prescription drugs, geriatric syndromes (e. g., immobility, postural instability, dementia, depression, delirium, and incontinence), comorbidities, functional status (evaluated with the Katz Index of Independence in Activities of Daily Living), and severity of illness (evaluated with the Simplified Acute Physiology Score II). The incidence of delirium, infection, mortality, and the prescription of potentially inappropriate medications (based on the Beers criteria) were assessed during hospitalization. An observer who was uninvolved in patient care reported the adverse events. RESULTS: The mean age of the sample was 78.12 years. A total of 187 medical adverse events occurred in 94 admissions (55%). The predictors of medical adverse events were undetermined. Compared with the patients with no adverse events, the patients with medical adverse events had a significantly longer hospital stay (21.41 +/- 15.08 days versus 10.91 +/- 7.21 days) and a higher mortality rate (39 deaths [41.5%] versus 17 deaths [22.1%]). Mortality was significantly predicted by the Simplified Acute Physiology Score II score (odds ratio [OR] = 1.13, confidence interval [CI] 95%, 1.07 to 1.20), the Katz score (OR = 1.47, CI 95%, 1.18 to 1.83), and medical adverse events (OR = 3.59, CI 95%, 1.55 to 8.30). CONCLUSION: Medical adverse events should be monitored in every elderly hospitalized patient because there is no risk profile for susceptible patients, and the consequences of adverse events are serious, sometimes leading to longer hospital stays or even death.