Early identification of symptomatic aortic stenosis using echocardiographic data

Background: Heart failure (CHF) is the most frequent and prognostically severe symptom of aortic stenosis (AS), and the most common indication for surgery. The mainstay of treatment for AS is aortic valve replacement (AVR), and the main indication for an AVR is development of symptomatic disease. ACC/AHA guidelines define severe AS as an aortic valve area (AVA) ≤1cm², but there is little data correlating echocardiogram AVA with the onset of symptomatic CHF. We evaluated the risk of developing CHF with progressively decreasing echocardiographic AVA. We also compared echocardiographic AVA with Jet velocity (V2) and indexed AVA (AVAI) to assess the best predictor of development of symptomatic CHF.^ Methods and Results: This retrospective cohort study evaluated 518 patients with asymptomatic moderate or severe AS from a single community based cardiology practice. A total of 925 echocardiograms were performed over an 11-year period. Each echocardiogram was correlated with concurrent clinical assessments while the investigator was blinded to the echocardiogram severity of AS. The Cox Proportional hazards model was used to analyze the relationship between AVA and the development of CHF. The median age of patients at entry was 76.1 years, with 54% males. A total of 116 patients (21.8%) developed new onset CHF during follow-up. Compared to patients with AVA >1.0cm², patients with lower AVA had an exponentially increasing risk of developing CHF for each 0.2cm² decrement in AVA, becoming statistically significant only at an AVA less than 0.8 cm². Also, compared to V2 and AVAI, AVA added more information to assessing risk for development of CHF (p=0.041). ^ Conclusion: In patients with normal or mildly impaired LVEF, the risk of CHF rises exponentially with decreasing valve area and becomes statistically significant after AVA falls below 0.8cm². AVA is a better predictor of CHF when compared to V2 or AVAI.^

Genetic variants in the mammalian target of rapamycin (mTOR) signaling pathway as predictors of survival and clinical response in women with ovarian cancer

Background. The mTOR pathway is commonly altered in human tumors and promotes cell survival and proliferation. Preliminary evidence suggests this pathway's involvement in chemoresistance to platinum and taxanes, first line therapy for epithelial ovarian cancer. A pathway-based approach was used to identify individual germline single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and cumulative effects of multiple genetic variants in mTOR pathway genes and their association with clinical outcome in women with ovarian cancer. ^ Methods. The case-series was restricted to 319 non-Hispanic white women with high grade ovarian cancer treated with surgery and platinum-based chemotherapy. 135 SNPs in 20 representative genes in the mTOR pathway were genotyped. Hazard ratios (HRs) for death and Odds ratios (ORs) for failure to respond to primary therapy were estimated for each SNP using the multivariate Cox proportional hazards model and multivariate logistic regression model, respectively, while adjusting for age, stage, histology and treatment sequence. A survival tree analysis of SNPs with a statistically significant association (p<0.05) was performed to identify higher order gene-gene interactions and their association with overall survival. ^ Results. There was no statistically significant difference in survival by tumor histology or treatment regimen. The median survival for the cohort was 48.3 months. Seven SNPs were significantly associated with decreased survival. Compared to those with no unfavorable genotypes, the HR for death increased significantly with the increasing number of unfavorable genotypes and women in the highest risk category had HR of 4.06 (95% CI 2.29–7.21). The survival tree analysis also identified patients with different survival patterns based on their genetic profiles. 13 SNPs on five different genes were found to be significantly associated with a treatment response, defined as no evidence of disease after completion of primary therapy. Rare homozygous genotype of SNP rs6973428 showed a 5.5-fold increased risk compared to the wild type carrying genotypes. In the cumulative effect analysis, the highest risk group (individuals with ≥8 unfavorable genotypes) was significantly less likely to respond to chemotherapy (OR=8.40, 95% CI 3.10–22.75) compared to the low risk group (≤4 unfavorable genotypes). ^ Conclusions. A pathway-based approach can demonstrate cumulative effects of multiple genetic variants on clinical response to chemotherapy and survival. Therapy targeting the mTOR pathway may modify outcome in select patients.^

Risk factors of pneumonia in traumatic spinal-cord-injured patients

Pneumonia is a well-documented and common respiratory infection in patients with acute traumatic spinal cord injuries, and may recur during the course of acute care. Using data from the North American Clinical Trials Network (NACTN) for Spinal Cord Injury, the incidence, timing, and recurrence of pneumonia were analyzed. The two main objectives were (1) to investigate the time and potential risk factors for the first occurrence of pneumonia using the Cox Proportional Hazards model, and (2) to investigate pneumonia recurrence and its risk factors using a Counting Process model that is a generalization of the Cox Proportional Hazards model. The results from survival analysis suggested that surgery, intubation, American Spinal Injury Association (ASIA) grade, direct admission to a NACTN site and age (older than 65 or not) were significant risks for first event of pneumonia and multiple events of pneumonia. The significance of this research is that it has the potential to identify patients at the time of admission who are at high risk for the incidence and recurrence of pneumonia. Knowledge and the time of occurrence of pneumonias are important factors for the development of prevention strategies and may also provide some insights into the selection of emerging therapies that compromise the immune system. ^

Sobrevida de mulheres e homens com 60 anos e mais no município de São Paulo - Estudo SABE: as diferenças nas semelhanças em características do curso de vida

Objetivos: Avaliar numa coorte de idosos se há diferenças entre as situações do curso de vida que contribuem para uma maior chance de sobrevida em homens e mulheres com 60 anos e mais. Métodos: 2.143 idosos entrevistados em 2000 foram acompanhados durante quase 15 anos. Utilizou-se na análise estatística o teste de associação para amostras complexas (Rao-Scott), o estimador produto limite de Kaplan-Meier, o teste de log-rank, análise univariada e multivariada do modelo de riscos proporcionais de Cox, sendo construídos, através deste último, dois modelos finais por gênero, ao nível de significância de 5 por cento . Resultados e discussão: Dos 836.204 idosos paulistanos representados pelo estudo 51,6 por cento continuavam vivos (43,0 por cento dos homens e 57,7 por cento das mulheres). Em ambos os gêneros, os/as que tinham boas condições materiais e que realizavam sem dificuldade e sem ajuda mais da metade das atividades básicas e instrumentais de vida diária (ABVD/AIVD) apresentaram maior chance de sobrevivência. O mesmo foi verificado naquelas mulheres com menos de duas limitações de determinadas doenças, nas casadas, nas que ofereciam algum tipo de ajuda e nas que realizaram ações preventivas em relação a sua condição de saúde. Entre os homens o mesmo ocorreu naqueles que se referiram ser chefe de família, nos que tinham participação comunitária, nos que residiam com algum outro morador que foi ou ia à escola, que trabalharam predominantemente como proprietário ou por conta própria e nos que relataram ter tido alguma doença em seus primeiros quinzes anos de vida. Conclusão: As chances de sobrevida são diferentes entre gêneros, e entre si, mesmo em situações aparentemente semelhantes do curso de vida vivenciados e presentes em homens e mulheres idosas.

Randomized, controlled trial of topical exit-site application of honey (Medihoney) versus Mupirocin for the prevention of catheter-associated infections in hemodialysis patients

The clinical usefulness of hemodialysis catheters is limited by increased infectious morbidity and mortality. Topical antiseptic agents, such as mupirocin, are effective at reducing this risk but have been reported to select for antibiotic-resistant strains. The aim of the present study was to determine the efficacy and the safety of exit-site application of a standardized antibacterial honey versus mupirocin in preventing catheter-associated infections. A randomized, controlled trial was performed comparing the effect of thrice-weekly exit-site application of Medihoney versus mupirocin on infection rates in patients who were receiving hemodialysis via tunneled, cuffed central venous catheters. A total of 101 patients were enrolled. The incidences of catheter-associated bacteremias in honey-treated (n = 51) and mupirocin-treated (n = 50) patients were comparable (0.97 versus 0.85 episodes per 1000 catheter-days, respectively; NS). On Cox proportional hazards model analysis, the use of honey was not significantly associated with bacteremia-free survival (unadjusted hazard ratio, 0.94; 95% confidence interval, 0.27 to 3.24; P = 0.92). No exit-site infections occurred. During the study period, 2% of staphylococcal isolates within the hospital were mupirocin resistant. Thrice-weekly application of standardized antibacterial honey to hemodialysis catheter exit sites was safe, cheap, and effective and resulted in a comparable rate of catheter-associated infection to that obtained with mupirocin (although the study was not adequately powered to assess therapeutic equivalence). The effectiveness of honey against antibiotic-resistant microorganisms and its low likelihood of selecting for further resistant strains suggest that this agent may represent a satisfactory alternative means of chemoprophylaxis in patients with central venous catheters.

Platelet nitric oxide responsiveness - A novel prognostic marker in acute coronary syndromes

Objectives - Nitric oxide (NO) is critically important in the regulation of vascular tone and the inhibition of platelet aggregation. We have shown previously that patients with acute coronary syndromes (ACS) or stable angina pectoris have impaired platelet responses to NO donors when compared with normal subjects. We tested the hypotheses that platelet hyporesponsiveness to NO is a predictor of (1) cardiovascular readmission and/or death and (2) all-cause mortality in patients with ACS (unstable angina pectoris or non-Q-wave myocardial infarction). Methods and Results - Patients (n = 51) with ACS had evaluation of platelet aggregation within 24 hours of coronary care unit admission using impedance aggregometry. Patients were categorized as having normal (>= 32% inhibition of ADP-induced aggregation with the NO donor sodium nitroprusside; 10 mu mol/L; n = 18) or impaired (>= 32% inhibition of ADP-induced aggregation; n = 33) NO responses. We then compared the incidence of cardiovascular readmission and death during a median of 7 years of follow-up in these 2 groups. Using a Cox proportional hazards model adjusting for age, sex, index event, postdischarge medical treatment, revascularization status, left ventricular systolic dysfunction, concurrent disease states, and cardiac risk factors, impaired NO responsiveness was associated with an increased risk of the combination of cardiovascular readmission and/or death (relative risk, 2.7; 95% CI, 1.03 to 7.10; P = 0.041) and all-cause mortality (relative risk, 6.3; 95% CI, 1.09 to 36.7; P = 0.033). Conclusions - Impaired platelet NO responsiveness is a novel, independent predictor of increased mortality and cardiovascular morbidity in patients with high-risk ACS.

Prognostic value of intraventricular dyssynchrony according to clinical stage of left ventricular impairment

Intraventricular dyssynchrony has prognostic implications in patients who have severe functional limitation and decreased ejection fraction. Patients with less advanced cardiac disease often exhibit intraventricular dyssynchrony, but there is little available information about its prognostic relevance in such patients. We investigated the prognostic effect of intraventricular dyssynchrony on outcome in 318 patients with known or suspected coronary artery disease who were classified according to the presence or absence of left ventricular dysfunction and heart failure symptoms. Mortality was considered the primary end point over a median follow-up of 56 months, and a Cox proportional hazards model was used for survival analysis. Despite a low prevalence (8%) of left bundle branch block, there was a high prevalence of intraventricular dyssynchrony even in patients without symptomatic heart failure. The magnitude of intraventricular dyssynchrony correlated poorly with QRS duration (r = 0.25),end-systolic volume index (r = 0.27), and number of scar segments (r = 0.25). There,were 58 deaths during follow-up. Ventricular volume, ischemic burden, and magnitude of intraventricular dyssynchrony predicted outcome, but magnitude of intraventricular dyssynchrony was an independent predictor of survival only in patients with asymptomatic left ventricular dysfunction. In conclusion, patients with known or suspected coronary artery disease have a high prevalence of intraventricular dyssynchrony. Although ventricular volume, ischemic burden, and intraventricular dyssynchrony are potentially important prognostic markers, the relative importance of intraventricular dyssynchrony changes with the clinical setting and, may be greatest-in patients with preclinical disease. (c) 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Determinants of pharmaceutical innovation diffusion: social contagion and prescribing characteristics

This article studies the determinants of pharmaceutical innovation diffusion among specialists. To this end, it investigates the influences of six categories of factors—social embeddedness, socio-demography, scientific orientation, prescribing patterns, practice characteristics, and patient panel composition—on the use of new drugs for the treatment of type 2 diabetes mellitus in Hungary. Here, in line with international trends, 11 brands were introduced between April 2008 and April 2010, outperforming all other therapeutic classes. The Cox proportional hazards model identifies three determinants—social contagion (in the social embeddedness category) and prescribing portfolio and insulin prescribing ratio (in the prescribing pattern category). First, social contagion has a positive effect among geographically close colleagues—the higher the adoption ratio, the higher the likelihood of early adoption—but no influence among former classmates and scientific collaborators. Second, the wider the prescribing portfolio, the earlier the new drug uptake. Third, the lower the insulin prescribing ratio, the earlier the new drug uptake—physicians’ therapeutic convictions and patients’ socioeconomic statuses act as underlying influencers. However, this finding does not extend to opinion-leading physicians such as scientific leaders and hospital department and outpatient center managers. This article concludes by arguing that healthcare policy strategists and pharmaceutical companies may rely exclusively on practice location and prescription data to perfect interventions and optimize budgets.

Outlier effects on robust joint modelling of longitudinal and survival data

Robust joint modelling is an emerging field of research. Through the advancements in electronic patient healthcare records, the popularly of joint modelling approaches has grown rapidly in recent years providing simultaneous analysis of longitudinal and survival data. This research advances previous work through the development of a novel robust joint modelling methodology for one of the most common types of standard joint models, that which links a linear mixed model with a Cox proportional hazards model. Through t-distributional assumptions, longitudinal outliers are accommodated with their detrimental impact being down weighed and thus providing more efficient and reliable estimates. The robust joint modelling technique and its major benefits are showcased through the analysis of Northern Irish end stage renal disease patients. With an ageing population and growing prevalence of chronic kidney disease within the United Kingdom, there is a pressing demand to investigate the detrimental relationship between the changing haemoglobin levels of haemodialysis patients and their survival. As outliers within the NI renal data were found to have significantly worse survival, identification of outlying individuals through robust joint modelling may aid nephrologists to improve patient's survival. A simulation study was also undertaken to explore the difference between robust and standard joint models in the presence of increasing proportions and extremity of longitudinal outliers. More efficient and reliable estimates were obtained by robust joint models with increasing contrast between the robust and standard joint models when a greater proportion of more extreme outliers are present. Through illustration of the gains in efficiency and reliability of parameters when outliers exist, the potential of robust joint modelling is evident. The research presented in this thesis highlights the benefits and stresses the need to utilise a more robust approach to joint modelling in the presence of longitudinal outliers.

Influence of Remote Monitoring on Long-Term Cardiovascular Outcomes after Cardioverter-Defibrillator Implantation

AIMS: Device-based remote monitoring (RM) has been linked to improved clinical outcomes at short to medium-term follow-up. Whether this benefit extends to long-term follow-up is unknown. We sought to assess the effect of device-based RM on long-term clinical outcomes in recipients of implantable cardioverter-defibrillators (ICD). METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study of consecutive patients who underwent ICD implantation for primary prevention. RM was initiated with patient consent according to availability of RM hardware at implantation. Patients with concomitant cardiac resynchronization therapy were excluded. Data on hospitalizations, mortality and cause of death were systematically assessed using a nationwide healthcare platform. A Cox proportional hazards model was employed to estimate the effect of RM on mortality and a composite endpoint of cardiovascular mortality and hospital admission due to heart failure (HF). RESULTS: 312 patients were included with a median follow-up of 37.7months (range 1 to 146). 121 patients (38.2%) were under RM since the first outpatient visit post-ICD and 191 were in conventional follow-up. No differences were found regarding age, left ventricular ejection fraction, heart failure etiology or NYHA class at implantation. Patients under RM had higher long-term survival (hazard ratio [HR] 0.50, CI 0.27-0.93, p=0.029) and lower incidence of the composite outcome (HR 0.47, CI 0.27-0.82, p=0.008). After multivariate survival analysis, overall survival was independently associated with younger age, higher LVEF, NYHA class lower than 3 and RM. CONCLUSION: RM was independently associated with increased long-term survival and a lower incidence of a composite endpoint of hospitalization for HF or cardiovascular mortality.

Impact on hip fracture mortality after the establishment of an orthogeriatric care program in a colombian hospital

El objetivo del estudio es evaluar la mortalidad a un año en pacientes con fractura de cadera, mayores de 65 años tratados en un programa establecido de orto-geriatría. 298 se trataron de acuerdo al protocolo de orto-geriatría, se calculo la mortalidad a un año, se establecieron los predictores de mortalidad orto-geriátrico. La sobrevida anual se incremento de 80% a 89% (p = .039) durante los cuatro años de seguimiento del programa y disminuyo el riesgo de mortalidad anual postoperatorio (Hazard Ratio = 0.54, p = .049). La enfermedad cardiaca y la edad maor a 85 años fueron predictores positivos para mortalidad.

Effects of informative censoring on the hazard function: Application to the proportional hazards regression model

The standard analyses of survival data involve the assumption that survival and censoring are independent. When censoring and survival are related, the phenomenon is known as informative censoring. This paper examines the effects of an informative censoring assumption on the hazard function and the estimated hazard ratio provided by the Cox model.^ The limiting factor in all analyses of informative censoring is the problem of non-identifiability. Non-identifiability implies that it is impossible to distinguish a situation in which censoring and death are independent from one in which there is dependence. However, it is possible that informative censoring occurs. Examination of the literature indicates how others have approached the problem and covers the relevant theoretical background.^ Three models are examined in detail. The first model uses conditionally independent marginal hazards to obtain the unconditional survival function and hazards. The second model is based on the Gumbel Type A method for combining independent marginal distributions into bivariate distributions using a dependency parameter. Finally, a formulation based on a compartmental model is presented and its results described. For the latter two approaches, the resulting hazard is used in the Cox model in a simulation study.^ The unconditional survival distribution formed from the first model involves dependency, but the crude hazard resulting from this unconditional distribution is identical to the marginal hazard, and inferences based on the hazard are valid. The hazard ratios formed from two distributions following the Gumbel Type A model are biased by a factor dependent on the amount of censoring in the two populations and the strength of the dependency of death and censoring in the two populations. The Cox model estimates this biased hazard ratio. In general, the hazard resulting from the compartmental model is not constant, even if the individual marginal hazards are constant, unless censoring is non-informative. The hazard ratio tends to a specific limit.^ Methods of evaluating situations in which informative censoring is present are described, and the relative utility of the three models examined is discussed. ^

Characterization of the variable cow's age at last calving as a measurement of longevity by using the Kaplan-Meier estimator and the Cox model

In most studies on beef cattle longevity, only the cows reaching a given number of calvings by a specific age are considered in the analyses. With the aim of evaluating all cows with productive life in herds, taking into consideration the different forms of management on each farm, it was proposed to measure cow longevity from age at last calving (ALC), that is, the most recent calving registered in the files. The objective was to characterize this trait in order to study the longevity of Nellore cattle, using the Kaplan-Meier estimators and the Cox model. The covariables and class effects considered in the models were age at first calving (AFC), year and season of birth of the cow and farm. The variable studied (ALC) was classified as presenting complete information (uncensored = 1) or incomplete information (censored = 0), using the criterion of the difference between the date of each cow's last calving and the date of the latest calving at each farm. If this difference was >36 months, the cow was considered to have failed. If not, this cow was censored, thus indicating that future calving remained possible for this cow. The records of 11 791 animals from 22 farms within the Nellore Breed Genetic Improvement Program ('Nellore Brazil') were used. In the estimation process using the Kaplan-Meier model, the variable of AFC was classified into three age groups. In individual analyses, the log-rank test and the Wilcoxon test in the Kaplan-Meier model showed that all covariables and class effects had significant effects (P < 0.05) on ALC. In the analysis considering all covariables and class effects, using the Wald test in the Cox model, only the season of birth of the cow was not significant for ALC (P > 0.05). This analysis indicated that each month added to AFC diminished the risk of the cow's failure in the herd by 2%. Nonetheless, this does not imply that animals with younger AFC had less profitability. Cows with greater numbers of calvings were more precocious than those with fewer calvings. Copyright © The Animal Consortium 2012.

The number and timing of time -dependent covariate measurements for the Cox regression model

The problem of analyzing data with updated measurements in the time-dependent proportional hazards model arises frequently in practice. One available option is to reduce the number of intervals (or updated measurements) to be included in the Cox regression model. We empirically investigated the bias of the estimator of the time-dependent covariate while varying the effect of failure rate, sample size, true values of the parameters and the number of intervals. We also evaluated how often a time-dependent covariate needs to be collected and assessed the effect of sample size and failure rate on the power of testing a time-dependent effect.^ A time-dependent proportional hazards model with two binary covariates was considered. The time axis was partitioned into k intervals. The baseline hazard was assumed to be 1 so that the failure times were exponentially distributed in the ith interval. A type II censoring model was adopted to characterize the failure rate. The factors of interest were sample size (500, 1000), type II censoring with failure rates of 0.05, 0.10, and 0.20, and three values for each of the non-time-dependent and time-dependent covariates (1/4,1/2,3/4).^ The mean of the bias of the estimator of the coefficient of the time-dependent covariate decreased as sample size and number of intervals increased whereas the mean of the bias increased as failure rate and true values of the covariates increased. The mean of the bias of the estimator of the coefficient was smallest when all of the updated measurements were used in the model compared with two models that used selected measurements of the time-dependent covariate. For the model that included all the measurements, the coverage rates of the estimator of the coefficient of the time-dependent covariate was in most cases 90% or more except when the failure rate was high (0.20). The power associated with testing a time-dependent effect was highest when all of the measurements of the time-dependent covariate were used. An example from the Systolic Hypertension in the Elderly Program Cooperative Research Group is presented. ^