Forecasting tourism demand using consumer expectations

Abstract Purpose- There is a lack of studies on tourism demand forecasting that use non-linear models. The aim of this paper is to introduce consumer expectations in time-series models in order to analyse their usefulness to forecast tourism demand. Design/methodology/approach- The paper focuses on forecasting tourism demand in Catalonia for the four main visitor markets (France, the UK, Germany and Italy) combining qualitative information with quantitative models: autoregressive (AR), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), self-exciting threshold autoregressions (SETAR) and Markov switching regime (MKTAR) models. The forecasting performance of the different models is evaluated for different time horizons (one, two, three, six and 12 months). Findings- Although some differences are found between the results obtained for the different countries, when comparing the forecasting accuracy of the different techniques, ARIMA and Markov switching regime models outperform the rest of the models. In all cases, forecasts of arrivals show lower root mean square errors (RMSE) than forecasts of overnight stays. It is found that models with consumer expectations do not outperform benchmark models. These results are extensive to all time horizons analysed. Research limitations/implications- This study encourages the use of qualitative information and more advanced econometric techniques in order to improve tourism demand forecasting. Originality/value- This is the first study on tourism demand focusing specifically on Catalonia. To date, there have been no studies on tourism demand forecasting that use non-linear models such as self-exciting threshold autoregressions (SETAR) and Markov switching regime (MKTAR) models. This paper fills this gap and analyses forecasting performance at a regional level. Keywords Tourism, Forecasting, Consumers, Spain, Demand management Paper type Research paper

Effects of manipulating Task Complexity on self-repairs during L2 oral production

This paper analyses the effects of manipulating the cognitive complexity of L2 oral tasks on language production. It specifically focuses on self-repairs, which are taken as a measure of accuracy since they denote both attention to form and an attempt at being accurate. By means of a repeated measures de- sign, 42 lower-intermediate students were asked to perform three different tasks types (a narrative, and instruction-giving task, and a decision-making task) for which two degrees of cognitive complexity were established. The narrative task was manipulated along +/− Here-and-Now, an instruction-giving task ma- nipulated along +/− elements, and the decision-making task which is manipu- lated along +/− reasoning demands. Repeated measures ANOVAs are used for the calculation of differences between degrees of complexity and among task types. One-way ANOVA are used to detect potential differences between low- proficiency and high-proficiency participants. Results show an overall effect of Task Complexity on self-repairs behavior across task types, with different be- haviors existing among the three task types. No differences are found between the self-repair behavior between low and high proficiency groups. Results are discussed in the light of theories of cognition and L2 performance (Robin- son 2001a, 2001b, 2003, 2005, 2007), L1 and L2 language production models (Levelt 1989, 1993; Kormos 2000, 2006), and attention during L2 performance (Skehan 1998; Robinson, 2002).

INFLUENCE OF INFORMATION ABOUT THE BENEFITS OF CONSUMING FRUIT ON CONSUMER PREFERENCES IN TEMUCO, REGION OF THE ARAUCANÍA

ABSTRACT With the aim of identifying strategies to increase fruit consumption in Temuco, consumer segments were classified according to the importance and preference of theattributes type of fruit, package/ brand, benefit associated with fruit consumption and price. A survey was applied to 400 people in Temuco,Chile, distributed using a simple allocation: 200 working adults and 200university students. The questionnaire included the SWFL (Satisfaction with Food-related Life) scale, respondents’ fruit consumption habits and their characteristics. Using conjoint and cluster analyses, three segments were distinguished: Group 1 (22.0%) gave greatest importance to the package/brand and preferred themessage “prevents diseases” and “without information”; Group 2 (47.5%) gave greatest importance to the package/brand and preferred the message “prevents diseases”; Group 3 (30.5%) assigned greatest importance to the price and preferred the message “contains antioxidants”. The segments differed in their level of satisfaction with food-related life, self-declared lifestyle, age and presence of university students. The results provide input to promote fruit consumption in working adults and university students.

Narrative discourse in interviews to linguistically mixed couples

This article deals with self-referential storytelling in sociolinguistic interviews. It analyzes the personal stories in ten interviews to linguistically heterogeneous couples. For this purpose, it is applied the model of linguistic analysis of drama (Bruner & Weisser 1991) and it identifies and interprets discursive markers of autobiographical storytelling. Therefore it takes into consideration the elements referred to agents and to their actions, to the sequences of events, to the canon or rule, and to the narrator's perspective. At the same time, it proposes to extend our approach to the existence itself of the participants. Resumen.-"Discurso narrativo en entrevistas a parejas lingüísticamente mixtas". Este artículo trata de las narraciones autorreferenciales en entrevistas sociolingüísticas sobre concepciones y usos de las lenguas en familias lingüísticamente mixtas. Analiza los relatos que aparecen en diez entrevistas a padres y madres que forman parejas lingüísticamente heterogéneas. Aplica el modelo de análisis lingüístico del dramatismo (Bruner & Weisser 1991). Identifica e interpreta los marcadores discursivos de la narración autobiográfica. Con este propósito considera los constituyentes que se refieren a los agentes y sus acciones, a las secuencias de sucesos, al canon o norma y a la perspectiva del narrador. Y propone la ampliación del estudio a los guiones de vida de lo actores. Palabras clave: entrevista, relato, narración, pareja, política lingüística de la familia, multilingüismo, marcador discursivo.

La construcción narrativa de la identidad en un contexto educativo intercultural = The narrative construction of identity in a intercultural educative setting

En este trabajo se expone e ilustra un modelo teórico para entender las funciones de la identidad, así como los mecanismospsicosociales asociados a su construcción: “Modelo Evolutivo y Funcional de la Identidad Mediada” (MEBIM). La identidad, mediada narrativamente, cumple una función personal orientada a la dirección de la propia vida, así como una función sociocultural vinculada a la búsqueda de reconocimiento de los derechos de los grupos sociales a los que uno se siente apegado. Se ilustran los factores asociados a la construcción de la identidad personal (sí mismos posibles, transiciones vitales, vínculo afectivo) y sociocultural (acción-transformación e identificación simbólica) a partir de 12 historias de vida realizadas con mestizos e indígenasde la Universidad Intercultural de Chiapas (México). Se sugiere que en contextos educativos formales, como la escuela o la Universidad, se deben propiciar narrativas personales y socioculturales con el objetivo de optimizar la identidad en un mundo a la vez globalizado y plural

DEVELOPING A CROWDSOURCED VIDEOGRAPHIC RESEARCH METHOD FOR CONSUMER CULTURE RESEARCH

The purpose of this study is to develop a crowdsourced videographic research method for consumer culture research. Videography provides opportunities for expressing contextual and culturally embedded relations. Thus, developing new ways to conduct videographic research is meaningful. This study develops the crowdsourced videographic method based on a literature review and evaluation of a focal study. The literature review follows a qualitative systematic review process. Through the literature review, based on different methodological, crowdsourcing and consumer research related literature, this study defines the method, its application process and evaluation criteria. Furthermore, the evaluation of the focal study, where the method was applied, completes the study. This study applies professional review with self-evaluation as a form of evaluation, drawing from secondary data including research task description, screenshots of the mobile application used in the focal study, videos collected from the participants, and self-evaluation by the author. The focal study is analyzed according to its suitability to consumer culture research, research process and quality. Definitions and descriptions of the research method, its process and quality criteria form the theoretical contribution of this study. Evaluating the focal study using these definitions underlines some best practices of this type of research, generating the practical contribution of this study. Finally, this study provides ideas for future research. First, defining the boundaries of the use of crowdsourcing in various parts of conducting research. Second, improving the method by applying it to new research contexts. Third, testing how changes in one dimension of the crowdsourcing models interact with other dimension. Fourth, comparing the quality criteria applied in this study to various other quality criteria to improve the method’s usefulness. Overall, this study represents a starting point for further development of the crowdsourced videographic research method.

A qualitative narrative inquiry of the experience of accessing community supports among women who have experienced trauma

Abuse related trauma can have serious consequences on individuals' health and their state of well-being and may result in decreased access to different determinants of health. The purpose of this qualitative narrative inquiry using secondary data was to explore the experience of accessing community supports among eight women who had experienced abuse-related trauma. A conceptual framework drawn from the literature on social inclusion and social exclusion and a narrative inquiry method were used to explore epiphanies, customs, routines, images, and everyday experiences (Clandinin & Connelly, 2000) among the women. A Three-Dimensional Space Narrative Structure was used to explore the participants' personal or internal conditions, feelings, hopes and reaction as well as their social experiences in interaction with others in community. The participants described experiencing the impact of trauma in their past and present circumstances, a lack of accommodation of difference, challenges in maintaining a sense of self in a world of assumption and labels, impact of trauma on the determinants of health, and uncertainty about the future. The findings from the study demonstrate experiences of social exclusion among the participants in the past, further isolation and social exclusion in the present when personal life issues were ignored by community support services, and uncertainty about what the future will bring for them. The findings indicate close relationships between the women's personal lives and their social connections which need to be considered to mitigate social exclusion and enhance social inclusion.

Why I am not a teacher: a self-study examining why I made the decision to exit the teaching profession /

A good teacher was once described as being like a candle; consuming itself to light the way for others (Author unknown). But as Knox (2005) says, far too many yoimg flames flicker out before they ever get the opportvmity to bum their brightest. This self-study explores the phenomenon of teacher attrition through the stories and lived experiences of one elementary teacher. I strive throughout this self-study to delve deeper into the significance of my story and lived experiences in order to enhance our understanding of why teachers exit the profession. As a result, the guiding question throughout the study is, "Why do teachers, particularly those who have only taught for a few years, leave the classrooms they worked so hard to enter?" Through the writing of a narrative entitled Sarah 's Story, I was able to identify and give voice to a story openly sharing the feelings of despair; disappointment, frustration and disillusionment. This study has identified areas of tension that lead to dissatisfaction, discontent, and teacher disillusionment. It confronts the issues of complexity, uncertainty, and conflict that are experienced in teaching. It discusses the puzzling, powerfiil and upsetting experiences, highlighting the importance of talk between all members of the education system.

Paradigms and prisons: a narrative of translation and transformation : my hero's journey from "at-risk" youth to teacher/learner in a jail setting /

All life is suffering. Life is the pursuit ofhappiness. These are two foundational Buddhist dictums that, in their simplicity, I have entirely misunderstood regarding their depth, misreading them as contradictory. Indeed, my superficial interpretations led me to Thoreau's life ofquiet desperation and deep depression. We come to know and bring understanding to our lives by storying them. My own Hero's Journey, the path from my egoic selftoward the universal Self, can be understood as the resultant translations and transformations. Inevitably each of us is involved in such a story, though most are unaware of the stages along our own Hero's journey. ' Narrative honours writing as a means of knowing. The contemplative reflection allows insight into our imprisoning paradigms, beliefs, behaviours, and blind spots. My research revisits and explores nodal experiences along my Hero's Journey through 4 categories: self, society, soil, and Self. While the value of this process of narrative inquiry lay in its ability to come to know and understand one's self, perhaps its greater value is of a more universal nature. My inquiry, while adding to the body of academic educational narrative literature, may also illuminate a path to educators, students, and all interested, encouraging a response to the call of their own Hero's journey. I am a teacher/learner in a jail setting, working with youth between the ages of 12 and 18 who have committed crimes such as armed robbery, assault, rape, and murder. As this thesis follows my continual development from egoic self/teacher/learner to universal Self/Teacher/Learner, it also enables me to both consciously and unconsciously open the ways in which I expand my care, compassion, and love to work with at-risk youth.

A journey into narrative inquiry : one teacher's lived experience with eating disorders /

In "A Journey Into Narrative Inquiry: One Teacher's Lived Experience With Eating Disorders," an elementary teacher searches for answers regarding how education can help prevent eating disorders by journeying into her own experience of having had such a disorder. This qualitative study is a personal narrative based on an individual's experience, a method appropriate to the sharing of personal voices and stories told in education research. It is an attempt to address the gap found in the research on this topic by offering a subjective and unique perspective of what it is like to live within the nightmare of an eating disorder and by sharing the wisdom gained from having survived such an experience. This narrative inquiry explains how a teacher found herself at a stage where she was willing and ready to share her experience for the sake of research. The story of having had an eating disorder, consisting of both anorexia and bulimia, for over a decade is shared in a genuine, reflective manner. The researcher then shares the analysis of her own story, unpacking the themes of journeying toward voice, self-esteem, self-acceptance, and self and the completion of an M.Ed. degree. Bridges are made which connect these themes to the personal and professional life of the researcher, to the schools in terms of both curriculum and climate, to research directions, and to the larger culture. Suggestions are made for possible changes in educational settings that may help teachers in providing students with some tools and strategies to prevent turning to eating disorders as coping mechanisms. A literature review of eating disorders is included as well, as a guide for others to use when undertaking such qualitative studies.

Letting go : a self-study utilizing critical literacy as method in improving my practice /

This is a Self-study about my role as a teacher, driven by the question: "How do I improve my practice?" (Whitehead, 1989)? In this study, I explored the discomfort that I had with the way that I had been teaching. Specifically, I worked to uncover the reasons behind my obsessive (mis)management of my students. I wrote of how I came to give my Self permission for this critique: how I came to know that all knowledge is a construction, and that my practice, too, is a construction. I grounded this journey within my experiences. I constructed these experiences in narrative fomi in order to reach a greater understanding of how I came to be the teacher I initially was. I explored metaphors that impacted my practice, re-constructed them, and saw more clearly the assumptions and influences that have guided my teaching. I centred my inquiry into my teaching within an Action Reflection methodology, bon-owing Jack Whitehead's (1989) term to describe my version of Action Research. I relied upon the embedded cyclical pattern of Action Reflection to understand my teaching Self: beginning from a critical moment, reflecting upon it, and then taking appropriate action, and continuing in this way, working to improve my practice. To understand these critical moments, I developed a personal definition of critical literacy. I then tumed this definition inward. In treating my practice as a textual production, I applied critical literacy as a framework in coming to know and understand the construction that is my teaching. I grounded my thesis journey within my Self, positioning my study within my experiences of being a grade 1 teacher struggling to teach critical literacy. I then repositioned my journey to that of a grade 1 teacher struggling to use critical literacy to improve my practice. This journey, then, is about the transition from critical literacyit as-subject to critical literacy-as-instmctional-method in improving my practice. I joumeyed inwards, using a critical moment to build new understandings, leading me to the next critical moment, and continued in this cyclical way. I worked in this meandering yet deliberate way to reach a new place in my teaching: one that is more inclusive of all the voices in my room. I concluded my journey with a beginning: a beginning of re-visioning my practice. In telling the stories of my journey, of my teaching, of my experiences, I changed into the teacher that I am more comfortable with. I've come to the frightening conclusion that I am the decisive element in the classroom. It's my personal approach that creates the climate. It's my daily mood that makes the weather As a teacher, I possess a tremendous power to make a person's life miserable or joyous. I can be a tool of torture or an instrument of inspiration. I can humiliate or humour, hurt or heal. In all situations, it is my response that decides whether a crisis will be escalated or de-escalated and a person humanized or de-humanized. (Ginott, as cited in Buscaglia, 2002, p. 22)

Pausing at the river's edge : a narrative inquiry into the practice of a reading teacher /

In this narrative self-study I retell and connect the stories ofmy personal journey with literacy from childhood to the present. I use narrative as both methodology and method as I story my life experiences and my personal encounters with literacy. The heart ofmy reflections comes from the pages of personal journals written and storied over many years of trying to make meaning of powerful literacy experiences in my life. Now, in going back through the stories and reconstructing meaning, I make connections between the memories along the journey and the place from which I now tell my story. The interpretations I construct give voice to beliefs 1 have lived by and illuminations to moments in time that I have come to see with new eyes as I have engaged in this inquiry. The journey and self-reflection within the pages of this inquiry provide understanding of the driving force behind my personal passion for literacy. I am better able to understand my motivations and share the stories that validate my personal and professional path through time.

A sequential analysis of therapist scaffolding and child concept formation in narrative therapy

Narrative therapy is a postmodern therapy that takes the position that people create self-narratives to make sense of their experiences. To date, narrative therapy has compiled virtually no quantitative and very little qualitative research, leaving gaps in almost all areas of process and outcome. White (2006a), one of the therapy's founders, has recently utilized Vygotsky's (1934/1987) theories of the zone of proximal development (ZPD) and concept formation to describe the process of change in narrative therapy with children. In collaboration with the child client, the narrative therapist formalizes therapeutic concepts and submits them to increasing levels of generalization to create a ZPD. This study sought to determine whether the child's development proceeds through the stages of concept formation over the course of a session, and whether therapists' utterances scaffold this movement. A sequential analysis was used due to its unique ability to measure dynamic processes in social interactions. Stages of concept formation and scaffolding were coded over time. A hierarchical log-linear analysis was performed on the sequential data to develop a model of therapist scaffolding and child concept development. This was intended to determine what patterns occur and whether the stated intent of narrative therapy matches its actual process. In accordance with narrative therapy theory, the log-linear analysis produced a final model with interactions between therapist and child utterances, and between both therapist and child utterances and time. Specifically, the child and youth participants in therapy tended to respond to therapist scaffolding at the corresponding level of concept formation. Both children and youth and therapists also tended to move away from earlier and toward later stages of White's scaffolding conversations map as the therapy session advanced. These findings provide support for White's contention that narrative therapists promote child development by scaffolding child concept formation in therapy.

"Man of science, man of faith" : Lost, consumer agency and the fate/free will binary in the post-9/11 context

In 2004, Lost debuted on ABC and quickly became a cultural phenomenon. Its postmodem take on the classic Robinson Crusoe desert island scenario gestures to a variety of different issues circulating within the post-9II1 cultural consciousness, such as terrorism, leadership, anxieties involving air travel, torture, and globalization. Lost's complex interwoven flashback and flash-forward narrative structure encourages spectators to creatively hypothesize solutions to the central mysteries of the narrative, while also thematically addressing archetypal questions of freedom of choice versus fate. Through an examination of the narrative structure, the significance of technological shifts in television, and fan cultures in Lost, this thesis discusses the tenuous notion of consumer agency within the current cultural context. Furthermore, I also explore these issues in relation to the wider historical post-9/II context.

Back to Basics: Exploring gestural habits as cues for anticipating self-injurious episodes in a child with Autism and Deafness

This research project is a longitudinal qualitative case study. It contributes to an understanding of self-injurious behaviour (SIB) by inviting the reader through the narrative of the lived experience of a fifteen year old child-informant and the network of individuals in his life. The value and importance of a case-study is that it focuses on the authenticity of the experience of living with disability. Through the use of detailed field observations, interviews and photo documents, the study thoroughly explores three main areas: quality of movements, potential cues as pre-cursors to episodes of self-injury, and purposeful communication. The research begins with a review of literature on Autism, Deafness and Self-injury, formulates the research design and orientation of Physical Education, Phenomenology and Semiotics, and then systematically explores four distinct phases in the analytical process. The aim was to explore self-injurious episodes in the child informant in hopes to translate the meaning of the behaviour and potentially utilize this to provide more opportunities for adapted physical activity. The findings reveal distinct patterns of movement cues utilized for different purposes. The implications of the findings are self-injurious episodes in the child informant are preceded by distinct patterns of movement that are potentially communicative. Suggested future direction of the research is expanding the scope to other disabilities for which verbal communication is challenging, and standardizing the translating tools to assist in understanding the communication of movement.