青藏高原东部混农季节性放牧及其对高山林线格局的影响

混农季节性放牧（agropastoral transhumance）通过作物种植和畜牧生产相结合的方式对不同海拔高度带上的资源进行相互补充利用，在亚洲兴都库什地区、青藏高原、横断山、东部及南部非洲、南美安第斯地区等具有悠久的历史。这种传统的生计系统几千年以来一直是居住在该地区的人类社会和自然生态系统相互作用的主要形式之一。这种传统的资源利用方式与山地自然植被以及特殊的山地人类文化和社会特征具有密切的协同演变关系。认识和理解这一关系，是山地生态学和人类学的核心科学问题之一。近年来，山地生态系统的多重功能性及动态演变对山区社会经济可持续发展的重要意义受到人们的不断关注。本文通过对云南省德钦县的12个自然村的混农季节性放牧以及对云南德钦、四川壤塘等山地植被格局特别是高海拔地带植被格局的的详细调查，探讨青藏高原东缘地区混农季节性放牧的主要特征、系统构成及相互关系，及其在全球变化、经济全球化和市场化及现代化过程中的变化趋势，分析混农季节性放牧与高山林线格局及生态系统的互动关系，旨在探讨山地地区人类活动与自然生态系统之间的互动关系，从而为山区社会经济可持续发展、环境建设和生物多样性保护等国家战略提供理论依据。 调查结果表明，混农季节性放牧是一种适应青藏高原东部高山峡谷地区环境因子及自然资源呈明显的垂直分布、资源数量稀少而时空分布异质性极高的生存环境的一种传统经济形式。这种传统的畜牧业的主要生产目的仍然是提供当地基本生存所需的产品，饲养牲口的种类和数量取决于农户的当地需求并且受资源的限制，因而维持在比较低的水平的。分布在不同海拔高度的放牧资源在一年中被牲口利用的时间也不同，互为补充，共同构成混农季节性放牧的资源基础。根据各社区永久居住点的位置和该村的土地资源特别是牧草地资源的分布范围，牲口迁移的距离和格局有较大的差异。。天然牧场仍然是最主要的畜牧业生产资源。混农季节性放牧中的农业系统和牧业系统互为补充，共同构成调查地区完整的的生计系统，农耕活动为放牧活动提供精饲料如粮食等和冬季饲料如秸秆， 其数量往往成为家庭畜牧业生产规模的主要决定因子之一。 通过对牲口数量和结构、牲口的时空迁移格局、牧业活动在整个经济活动中的相对重要性以及牧业活动和作物种植的关系方面的研究分析，混农季节性放牧在近几十年发生了深刻的变化。主要表现在牲口数量总体下降，牲口组成发生变化，牲口移动性降低、牧业活动的经济重要性下降以及牧业活动和种植活动之间的相互依存度降低等。上述变化的根本驱动力是发生在当地、地区及全球尺度上的环境、政治、社会经济、技术和文化等的变化，从而造成当地群众畜牧生产目标、土地利用和劳动力的分布等发生了变化。当地生计系统发生的改变可能会带来对方面而深刻的政治、社会经济、文化和生态影响。 混农季节性放牧这种古老的传统生计策略面临着许多挑战，如冬季饲料短缺、草场退化、缺乏市场竞争力、经济重要性降低、对年轻人缺乏吸引力、国家缺乏专门的政策指导等。与此同时，经济全球化、市场经济、新技术的应用、替代生计机会的增加、国家对于山地生态系统的作用的重新定位等也为传统生计系统转型、实现社会与生态共赢创造了机遇。 混农季节性放牧活动对亚高山及树线交错带生态系统系统的互动方式主要体现在以下几个方面：（1）牲口啃食、践踏等影响森林群落更新，改变森林群落的组成和结构，从而影响森林群落的演替进程和植被格局。林线边缘是搭建夏棚的首选地点，因此林线及树线交错地带就成了牲口活动的主要场所之一；（2）利用火烧开辟、维持和改良高山牧场； 3）在亚高山火灾迹地的放牧活动能够阻止火烧迹地的顺向演替； 4）牧民在林线附近获取建材和薪材等活动影响高山林线附近森林的结构和功能。 在调查区域，梅里雪山、白马雪山、甲午雪山的林线海拔高度在4200-4300m之间； 四川雅江、理塘一线，林线位置多在4300-4400m；四川壤塘二林场一带的林线主体在4100-4200m，在个别地区达到4300m； 在贡嘎山的南坡和东坡一带，林线位置在3600-3700m；而在四川松潘一带，林线位置主体在3700-3800米左右。树线高度的分布趋势和林线一致。混农季节性放牧及其有关人类利用活动使研究地区很多地方高山林线降低、树线交错带宽变窄或消失。在研究地区，总体情况是，阳坡和半阳坡（南坡、西南坡等）的林线和树线比阴坡和半阴坡（北坡、东北坡等）低，变化幅度达20-200m。这种差异主要是为了开辟牧场而人为清除了南向坡自然林线及其以上的植被从而使林线位置下降所致。在南坡自然林线保留得比较好的地方，林线和树线依然可以达到甚至超过北坡林线和树线的高度。放牧活动抑制了高山林线带火烧迹地的天然更新，从而使林线位置保持在目前的位置。 放牧活动对高山林线带森林群落更新的影响是显著的。自然林线内的乔木个体密度特别是新生苗和幼苗的密度大大高于非自然林线。没有放牧的自然林线及树线交错带内的I级个体（新生苗）密度达到725-2917株/公顷，而与之相对的处理样地内I级个体的密度只有0-228株/公顷；II级个体（高度10-50cm）也表现出类似的趋势，在没有放牧的自然林线及树线交错带样方内，其密度达到550-5208株/，而在放牧处理样方内只有14-321株/公顷。在非自然林线带样地内，在有正常放牧的样地内，完全缺乏I级个体。 从相对比例来看，没有放牧的样方内的I、II级个体在全部个体中所占的比例显著高于有放牧活动的样方。放牧使林线交错带的乔木幼苗数量显著减少，从而影响林线及树线交错带森林群落的天然更新过程。林线和树线交错带的灌木对乔木幼苗具有重要的保护作用，能够为树线树种如冷杉等幼苗的定居体提供有利的微气候环境，同时保护苗免受牲口的啃食和践踏。火烧以后接着进行放牧能够100%地抑制高山林线带的幼苗更新。 高山牧场放牧强度降低、使用时间缩短而低海拔地带放牧强度增加是研究地区混农季节性放牧系统的一个显著变化。这种变化也必然会引起各海拔带上的生态系统的变化。放牧强度的降低、生产性用火的停止将导致原来通过人工火烧而降低并通过进一步的火烧和放牧活动来维持的林线及其以上地带的灌木盖度和高度的增加，从而为林线森林群落的扩张创造条件。 青藏高原东部高山峡谷地区是我国重要的山地生态系统，在我国的生物多样性保护、生态环境建设、社会经济可持续发展战略中具有举足轻重的作用。正确认识人类特别是当地传统的生计系统与生态环境系统的互动关系是实现上述战略目标的前提。决策者必须以综合、系统的的视角协调促进社会经济可持续发展、保护生物及文化多样性和维持人、牲口和生态系统之间的平衡的多重目标。 Agropastoral transhumance, which makes a complementary exploitation of the natural resources at different altitudinal belts through a combination of migratory animal husbandry and crop cultivation, has a long history in Hindu-Kush Himalaya, Tibet Plateau, Hengduan Ranges, eastern and southern Africa and the Andes region of south America.For millennia, this traditional livelihood strategy has been one of the main forms of interaction between human societies inhabiting in these regions and their natural ecocystems. A close co-evolutionary relationship has been developed between this indigenous resources management systems and the mountain vegetation systems on the one hand and a unique set of cultural values and social features on the other. Understanding this relationship has been one of the core scientific issues in mountain ecology and anthropology. In recent years, the importance of the multiple functions of the mountain ecosystems and their dynamic changes in the sustainable socio-economic development of the mountain regions has gained increasing attention. This paper, which is based on a detailed study on the agropastoral practices of the 12 natural villages in Deqin County of Yunnan, and the mountainnn vegetation patterns in Deqin of Yunnan and Rangtang County of Sichuan, intends to reveal the major characteristics, system composition and the inter-relations of the subsystems of the agropastoral transhumance in Eastern Tibetan Plateau as well as the trends of changes of the system within the context of global changes, economic globalization and modernity process of China and analyze the relations between agropastoral transhumance and alpine ecosystem, ao as to understand the interactions between human activities and natural ecosystems of the mountains and provide theoretical basis for the national strategies in eocioeconomic development, environmental reconstruction and biodiversity conservation in the mountain regions. Results of the survey indicate that agropastoral transhumance in the investigated area is a traditional economic form that is highly adapted to the eastern Tibet Plateau where the topography features high peaks and deep gorges and where the highly variable environmental parameters and scanty natural resources exhibit a distinct vertical spectrum of distribution and great temporal and spatial heterogeneity. The main objective of pastoral management is still aimed at the production of basic goods and services of local people and thus the type and size of animals raised for each household mainly depend on local needs and are limited by the availability of natural resources. The scale of production is relatively low. Pastoral resources at different altidudinal belts are complementarily used at different seasons of a year and thus form the resources basis for agropastoral production of the study area. Migration distances and patterns vary with the location of the permanent settlements, the elevational distribution range of the resources of the villages concerned. Natural pastures (rangelands) are the main fodder resources and sumplement feedings only account for less than 5% of the total fodder consumption. Crop cultivation and pastoral activities support each other to form a complete livelihood system. The ability of the farmig lands (crop cultivation) to provide the pastoral activities with concentrates and sumplements often becomes a main factor limiting the scale of livestock production at household level. Agropastoral transhumance is experiencing drastic changes in recent decades as is reflected in the size and composition of animals, the seasonal migration pattern, the relative importance of pastoralism in the household economy and the interplays of agricultural and pastoral elements of the system. In general, there is a decline in animal population and mobility, a shift in animal composition to meet new needs arising from changed macro-economic situation, a decrease in the relative importance in the household economy and an increasing decoupling of agro&pastoral relations. The fundamental divers of these changes can be traced to environmental, social, economic, technological and cultural changes from local to global levels and such changes have further caused local changes in livestock management objectives, land use and distribution of labor forces. Changes in local livelihood systems could have profound political, socioeconomic, cultural and ecological conseuquences. Agropastoral transhumance, as an age-old traditional livelihood strategy, is facing multifacet challenges, such as winter fodder shortage, rangeland degradation, lack of market competitiveness, decrease in economic importance, lack of appreciation among the young generation and adequate policies from the government. At the same time, economic globalization, market economy, intrdoctution of new technologies, increase of alternative income generating opportunities and the national re-oreitation of policies on mountain ecosystems have all brought about new opportunities for the transformation of the traditional livelihood system and the synchronized development of local society and the environment. Agropastoral transhumance interacts with the ecosystems at the timberline and treeline ecotone mainly through the following aspects: 1)Animal browsing and stamping affect the regeneration process of the forest communities and alters the composition and structure of the forest which in turn affect the succession process and vegetation pattern of the forest communities. Forest edges are the priority locations for summer houses and therefore the timeline and treeline area becomes the major venues of aninal activities; （2）herders create, maintain and improve pastures through burning that remove the forest communities at the timeline and treeline ecotone; 3）immediate grazing on the fire sites can significantly prevent the fire sites from perogressive succession; and 4）herders harvesting of construction timber and firewoods affects the structure and functions of the forest communities at the timberline and treeline zone. Timberline position in the survey region shows geographical variations. It is around 4200-4300m in Meilixueshan, Baimaxueshan and Jiawuxueshan in Northwest of Yunnan and rises to 4300-4400m in Yajiang County and Litang County of Sichuan. In Rangtang of Sichuan, it is between 4100-4200m, though reaching 4300m in localized sites. In the southern and eastern slopes of Gongga Mountain, the timberline is only between 3600m and 3700m and in Songpan County at the upper reach of the Minjiang River the timberline is around 3700-3800m.Treeline pattern follows similar trend. In many places, agropastoral transhumance and related human activities have lowered the timberline and treeline and narrowed or removed the treeline ecotone. In the area of survey, generally speaking, timberlines and treelines are lower on the southern slopes than on the northern slopes, with a difference between 20 and 200m. This is mainly because that the use of fires to crerate pastures has removed the forest vegetation at the previous timberline and above. In fact, in many places, well-preserved forests on the south slopes have even high timberline position that the corresponding northern slopes. At subalpine zone, grazing activities could have prohibited the natural regeneration of many forest fire sites and maintained the forest position at the present level. Grazing has a significant impact on the regernation process of forest communities at the timberline zone. Natural timberline and treeline ecotone has much higher density of treeline species individuals especially the emergents and seedlings than the timberlines that are maintained by human activities. In natural timberline and treelien ecotone without grazing interference, the density of the I Class seedlings (less than 10cm in height) ranges 725-2917 /hm2; while that in the treatment plots (with grazing disturbance) is only 0-228//hm2；II Class seedlings (10-50cm）exhibit similar density trends, reaching 550-5208//hm2 in natural timberline without grazing but only 14-321//hm2 in the plots with grazing treatment. In the man-created timberlines, there is no I Class seedling at all in plots with normal grazing activities. In relative terms, in plots without grazing activities, the propotion of I Class and II Class seedlings is much higher than that in plots with grazing. Grazing activities have significantly reduced the number of seedlings in the timberline ane treeline ecotone, and thus affect the natural regeneration process of the forests. Shrubs at the timberline and treeline ecotone can effectively protect the seedlings from severe climate and animal tramping, thus increasing the survival rate of the seedlings. Grazing following fires can completely inhibit forest regeneration process at timberline. Changes in agropastoral transhumance will have great impact on the timberline and treeline pattern of the studied area. The decrease in grazing intensity on alpine pastrues and the cessation of the use of fires will result an increase in the cover and height of shrubs above the present human-maintained treeline, which will create further condition for the expansion of timberline forest communities. Eastern Tibet Plateau harbors some most important mountain ecosystems of China that are of vital importance to the country’s strategy in biodiversity conservation, environmental construction and sustainable sociaoeconomic development. A proper knowledge of the interactions between traditional livelihood systems and the ecosystems in the region is a precondition to the realization of the above strategic goals. Therefore, the decision-makers must have a holistic and systemic perspective so as to integrate the multiple objectives of promoting sustainable socioeconomic development, conserving biological and cultural diversity and maintaining the balances among people, animal population and the ecosystems.

Teamwork Efficiency and Company Size

We study how ownership structure and management objectives interact in determining the company size without assuming information constraints or any explicit costs of management. In symmetric agent economies, the optimal company size balances the returns to scale of the production function and the returns to collaboration efficiency. For a general class of payoff functions, we characterize the optimal company size, and we compare the optimal company size across different managerial objectives. We demonstrate the restrictiveness of common assumptions on effort aggregation (e.g., constant elasticity of effort substitution), and we show that common intuition (e.g., that corporate companies are more efficient and therefore will be larger than equal-share partnerships) might not hold in general.

Tradução e validação para Portugal do Patient Activation Measure 13 : em pessoas com Diabetes Mellitus tipo 2

RESUMO - Introdução: A Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2 (DM2) tem uma elevada prevalência em todo o mundo, com impacto significativo a nível de Saúde Pública, na vida dos doentes e nos custos que lhe são associados. O Patiente Activation Measure 13 (PAM13) é um questionário que possibilita a avaliação das crenças, conhecimentos, motivação e capacidades de uma pessoa em relação à sua saúde; pelo que a sua utilização na DM2 é pertinente. Objetivos: Traduzir o PAM 13, versão curta, para Português de Portugal; Estabelecer as propriedades psicométricas da versão Portuguesa do PAM 13 (PAM13-P); Validar a PAM 13-P num grupo de pessoas com DM2. Material e métodos: O processo de tradução e adaptação cultural do questionário foi composto pelas fases: 1-Tradução, 2-Reconciliação e síntese, 3-Back translation, 4-Rever e sintetizar a Back translation, 5-Harmonização, 6-Revisão do comité de peritos, 7-Cognitive debriefing e 8-Avaliação final. Para validar o PAM13-P realizou-se um estudo observacional transversal analítico com uma amostra de conveniência, de pessoas com DM2, seguidas na Associação Protectora dos Diabéticos de Portugal. O questionário foi de autopreenchimento e foi consultado o processo clínico para obtenção da HbA1c. O tratamento estatístico foi realizado através do SPSS 21® e Winsteps v3.8.1®. Resultados e discussão: O processo de tradução e adaptação cultural foi realizado de acordo com as guidelines. Foram realizados 3 painéis de e-Delphi, com 21 participantes de áreas distintas, tendo-se obtido bons níveis de concordância. As principais modificações realizadas ao questionário foram a simplificação da linguagem e dos itens, obtendo-se as equivalências necessárias. O PAM13-P foi aplicado a 201 pessoas, sendo que a taxa de resposta foi de 83%. Na amostra analisada 57.3% eram homens. Obtiveram-se as médias de idade 67.1 anos e de duração de diabetes 17.3 anos. A média do score do PAM foi 58.5±10.1(41.8-90.5) pontos e 49,7% da amostra estava no nível 3 de ativação. Relativamente aos itens verificou-se que os itens mais difíceis foram o 13(56.1) e o 8(55.4) e o com menor dificuldade foi 4(38.5). As categorias de resposta tiveram um bom ajuste ao Modelo de Rasch. O ajustamento dos itens foi infit entre 0.779-1.177 e outfit entre 0.794-1.315. A fiabilidade dos indivíduos variou entre 0.77(real) e 0.83(modelo) e dos itens foi de 0.97 (real e modelo). O Alfa de Cronbach foi bom (α=0.82). Estas estatísticas foram semelhantes aos da validação do PAM13. Existiu uma relação entre o score do PAM e os itens de validação em 51%. Das variáveis analisadas, existia um relação do nível de ativação com a idade e com a HbA1c. Conclusões: O PAM13-P foi traduzido e adaptado culturalmente para Português e foi validado em pessoas com DM2, sendo as propriedades psicométricas boas.

Formal theory building for the avalanche game: explaining counter-intuitive behaviour of a complex system using geometrical and human behavioural/physiological effects

In 'Avalanche', an object is lowered, players staying in contact throughout. Normally the task is easily accomplished. However, with larger groups counter-intuitive behaviours appear. The paper proposes a formal theory for the underlying causal mechanisms. The aim is to not only provide an explicit, testable hypothesis for the source of the observed modes of behaviour-but also to exemplify the contribution that formal theory building can make to understanding complex social phenomena. Mapping reveals the importance of geometry to the Avalanche game; each player has a pair of balancing loops, one involved in lowering the object, the other ensuring contact. For more players, sets of balancing loops interact and these can allow dominance by reinforcing loops, causing the system to chase upwards towards an ever-increasing goal. However, a series of other effects concerning human physiology and behaviour (HPB) is posited as playing a role. The hypothesis is therefore rigorously tested using simulation. For simplicity a 'One Degree of Freedom' case is examined, allowing all of the effects to be included whilst rendering the analysis more transparent. Formulation and experimentation with the model gives insight into the behaviours. Multi-dimensional rate/level analysis indicates that there is only a narrow region in which the system is able to move downwards. Model runs reproduce the single 'desired' mode of behaviour and all three of the observed 'problematic' ones. Sensitivity analysis gives further insight into the system's modes and their causes. Behaviour is seen to arise only when the geometric effects apply (number of players greater than degrees of freedom of object) in combination with a range of HPB effects. An analogy exists between the co-operative behaviour required here and various examples: conflicting strategic objectives in organizations; Prisoners' Dilemma and integrated bargaining situations. Additionally, the game may be relatable in more direct algebraic terms to situations involving companies in which the resulting behaviours are mediated by market regulations. Finally, comment is offered on the inadequacy of some forms of theory building and the case is made for formal theory building involving the use of models, analysis and plausible explanations to create deep understanding of social phenomena.

The implications of climate change for the water environment in England

This paper reviews the implications of climate change for the water environment and its management in England. There is a large literature, but most studies have looked at flow volumes or nutrients and none have considered explicitly the implications of climate change for the delivery of water management objectives. Studies have been undertaken in a small number of locations. Studies have used observations from the past to infer future changes, and have used numerical simulation models with climate change scenarios. The literature indicates that climate change poses risks to the delivery of water management objectives, but that these risks depend on local catchment and water body conditions. Climate change affects the status of water bodies, and it affects the effectiveness of measures to manage the water environment and meet policy objectives. The future impact of climate change on the water environment and its management is uncertain. Impacts are dependent on changes in the duration of dry spells and frequency of ‘flushing’ events, which are highly uncertain and not included in current climate scenarios. There is a good qualitative understanding of ways in which systems may change, but interactions between components of the water environment are poorly understood. Predictive models are only available for some components, and model parametric and structural uncertainty has not been evaluated. The impacts of climate change depend on other pressures on the water environment in a catchment, and also on the management interventions that are undertaken to achieve water management objectives. The paper has also developed a series of consistent conceptual models describing the implications of climate change for pressures on the water environment, based around the source-pathway-receptor concept. They provide a framework for a systematic assessment across catchments and pressures of the implications of climate change for the water environment and its management.

Avaliação de riscos em estratégias de investimentos de longo prazo: aplicação prática em um fundo de pensão

O tema central deste trabalho é a avaliação de riscos em estratégias de investimentos de longo prazo, onde a necessidade de um exemplo prático direcionou à aplicação de Asset Liability Models em fundos de pensão, mais especificamente, a planos de benefício definido. Com os instrumentos de análise apresentados, acreditamos que o investidor com um horizonte de retorno de longo prazo tenha uma percepção mais acurada dos riscos de mercado a que está exposto, permitindo uma seleção de carteiras mais adequada aos objetivos de gestão. Para tanto, a inclusão de variáveis de decisão que procuram quantificar os objetivos de gestão - indo além do modelo simplificado de média-variância - exerce papel de fundamental importância.

Cadeia voluntária: uma solução para o pequeno varejista: o caso de Brasília

Este estudo procura descer aos pormenores da situação operacional para conhecer as causas que o levam a ser o que é; sua operação organizacional, diretrizes e métodos de operação. O foco do nosso trabalho é diretamente entre a periferia do centro urbano de Brasília, as Cidades Satélites, distantes de uns poucos a várias dezenas de quilômetros da mesma, surgidas da necessidade de abrigar a população vizinha à parte planejada, o plano piloto, como se chamou posteriormente.

Governança para resultados: estudo de caso em uma empresa pública de tecnologia da informação

A adoção de uma governança voltada para resultados na administração pública surgiu como uma abordagem de gestão organizacional, fazendo parte de um amplo movimento da nova gestão pública (NGP). No Brasil, as empresas públicas têm se preocupado em buscar melhores mecanismos de controle da gestão no sentido de lograr bons resultados na prestação dos serviços públicos para os clientes e à sociedade usuária dos serviços. O termo "Gestão de Desempenho Organizacional" refere-se a qualquer abordagem integrada e sistemática que vise melhorar o desempenho para alcançar objetivos estratégicos e promover a missão e os valores da organização. Assim, esta pesquisa estuda práticas relacionadas à gestão de desempenho organizacional, que possibilitem o direcionamento dos esforços na melhoria dos processos chaves, levando em consideração as particularidades inerentes à natureza pública. Outro aspecto de relevância deste trabalho advém dos estudos da Gestão por Objetivos e da Gestão para Resultados, adotando a compreensão de Gerenciar por Objetivos para se conquistar os Resultados. Deste modo, foi realizada uma pesquisa bibliográfica para identificar os principais frameworks sobre desempenho organizacional. Após esta etapa, foi estabelecida uma análise crítica dos frameworks, observando as principais contribuições e pontos fortes. E por último, foi construído um modelo de avaliação com o propósito de fazer um diagnóstico dos processos gerenciais, e qualificar em qual estágio a empresa objeto deste estudo se encontra, sob o enfoque da governança para resultados. O resultado desta avaliação refletiu as percepções dos funcionários e gestores sobre o desempenho e seus determinantes.

Use of Natural Vegetative Barriers to Limit Expansion of Blacktailed Prairie Dog Towns

Prairie dog (Cynomys ludovicianus) control has historically consisted of lethal methods to maintain, reduce, or eliminate populations in South Dakota and throughout the species range. Non-lethal methods of control are desired to meet changing management objectives for the black-tailed prairie dog. The use of naturally occurring buffer strips as vegetative barriers may be effective in limiting prairie dog town expansion. The objectives of this study were: 1) to evaluate effective width of vegetative barriers in limiting prairie dog towns expansion in western South Dakota; and 2) to document effect native vegetation height on expansion of prairie dog towns in western South Dakota. Five study sites were established in western South Dakota on rangelands containing prairie dog towns of adequate size. Electric fences were constructed for the purpose of excluding cattle and creating buffer strips of native grasses and shrubs. Prairie dogs were poisoned to create a prairie dog free buffer zone adjacent to active prairie dog towns. Grazing was allowed on both sides of the buffer strip. When grazing pressure was not sufficient, mowing was used to simulate grazing. Buffer strips were 100 meters long and 10, 25, and 40 meters in width. A zero meter control was included on all study sites. Quadrats (25) were randomly distributed throughout the buffer strips. Evaluation of study sites included visual obstruction, vegetation cover, vegetation frequency, vegetation height, and vegetation identification. Barrier penetration was evaluated by the presence of new active burrows behind vegetative barriers. Significant relationships were documented for both VOR and vegetation height. No significant difference was found between frequency of breakthroughs and buffer widths.

Presença e distribuição de espécies exóticas na zona de influência de duas trilhas no Parque Nacional da Serra do Cipó - MG

The presence of visitors in national parks is desirable and agrees with their management objectives. However, areas and paths under the influence of visitors are sites with a great possibility of change in the composition of vegetation due to the effects caused by the influence of walking, bicycles and horseback riding. In this work, two trails of the Serra do Cipo National Park were evaluated with the aim of studying and knowing the distribution of native and exotic species in their areas of influence. The theme of biological invasions in protected areas has been an important focus of studies since they represent a threat to biodiversity. The results show differences in the presence of exotic plants and conservation conditions between the two tracks studied.

Preterm birth, infant weight gain, and childhood asthma risk: A meta-analysis of 147,000 European children

BACKGROUND Preterm birth, low birth weight, and infant catch-up growth seem associated with an increased risk of respiratory diseases in later life, but individual studies showed conflicting results. OBJECTIVES We performed an individual participant data meta-analysis for 147,252 children of 31 birth cohort studies to determine the associations of birth and infant growth characteristics with the risks of preschool wheezing (1-4 years) and school-age asthma (5-10 years). METHODS First, we performed an adjusted 1-stage random-effect meta-analysis to assess the combined associations of gestational age, birth weight, and infant weight gain with childhood asthma. Second, we performed an adjusted 2-stage random-effect meta-analysis to assess the associations of preterm birth (gestational age <37 weeks) and low birth weight (<2500 g) with childhood asthma outcomes. RESULTS Younger gestational age at birth and higher infant weight gain were independently associated with higher risks of preschool wheezing and school-age asthma (P < .05). The inverse associations of birth weight with childhood asthma were explained by gestational age at birth. Compared with term-born children with normal infant weight gain, we observed the highest risks of school-age asthma in children born preterm with high infant weight gain (odds ratio [OR], 4.47; 95% CI, 2.58-7.76). Preterm birth was positively associated with an increased risk of preschool wheezing (pooled odds ratio [pOR], 1.34; 95% CI, 1.25-1.43) and school-age asthma (pOR, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.18-1.67) independent of birth weight. Weaker effect estimates were observed for the associations of low birth weight adjusted for gestational age at birth with preschool wheezing (pOR, 1.10; 95% CI, 1.00-1.21) and school-age asthma (pOR, 1.13; 95% CI, 1.01-1.27). CONCLUSION Younger gestational age at birth and higher infant weight gain were associated with childhood asthma outcomes. The associations of lower birth weight with childhood asthma were largely explained by gestational age at birth.

Resting and reactive blood pressure as predictors of ambulatory blood pressure in older hypertensive adults

Background. A review of the literature suggests that Hypertension (HTN) in older adults is associated with sympathetic stimulation that results in increasing blood pressure (BP) reactivity. If clinical assessment of BP captured sympathetic stimulation, it would be valuable for hypertension management. ^ Objectives. The study examined whether reactive change scores from a short BPR protocol, resting blood pressure (BP), or resting pulse pressure (PP) is a better predictor of 24 hour ambulatory BP and BP load in cardiac patients. ^ Method. The study used a single-group design, with both an experimental clinical component and an observational field component. Both components used repeated measurement methods. The study population consisted of 45 adult patients with a mean age of 64.6 ± 8.5 years who were diagnosed with cardiac disease and who were taking anti-hypertensive medication. Blood pressure reactivity was operationalized with a speech protocol. During the speech protocol, BP was measured with an automatic device (Dinamap 825XT) while subjects talked about their health and about their usual day. Twenty-four hour ambulatory BP measurement (Spacelabs 90207 monitor) followed the speech protocol. ^ Results. Resting SBP and resting PP were significant predictors of 24-hour SBP, and resting SBP was a significant predictor of SBP load. No predictors were significant of 24-hour DBP or DBP load. ^ Conclusions. Initial resting BP and PP may be used in clinical settings to assess hypertension management. Future studies are necessary to confirm the ability of resting BP to predict ABP and BP load in older, medicated hypertensives. ^

Avian occupancy probabilities, vegetation structure, and presence of Northern Bobwhite (Colinus virginianus) in eastern and central Oklahoma (2009-2011)

Changes in land use and land cover throughout the eastern half of North America have caused substantial declines in populations of birds that rely on grassland and shrubland vegetation types, including socially and economically important game birds such as the Northern Bobwhite (Colinus virginianus; hereafter bobwhites). As much attention is focused on habitat management and restoration for bobwhites, they may act as an umbrella species for other bird species with similar habitat requirements. We quantified the relationship of bobwhites to the overall bird community and evaluated the potential for bobwhites to act as an umbrella species for grassland and shrubland birds. We monitored bobwhite presence and bird community composition within 31 sample units on selected private lands in the south-central United States from 2009 to 2011. Bobwhites were strongly associated with other grassland and shrubland birds and were a significant positive predictor for 9 species. Seven of these, including Bell's Vireo (Vireo bellii), Dicksissel (Spiza americana), and Grasshopper Sparrow (Ammodramus savannarum), are listed as species of conservation concern. Species richness and occupancy probability of grassland and shrubland birds were higher relative to the overall bird community in sample units occupied by bobwhites. Our results show that bobwhites can act as an umbrella species for grassland and shrubland birds, although the specific species in any given situation will depend on region and management objectives. These results suggest that efficiency in conservation funding can be increased by using public interest in popular game species to leverage resources to meet multiple conservation objectives.

Estimación de variables dasométricas a partir de datos LiDAR y obtención de modelos de referencia para las distribuciones de alturas y diámetros del arbolado

La Gestión Forestal Sostenible se define como “la administración y uso de los bosques y tierras forestales de forma e intensidad tales que mantengan su biodiversidad, productividad, capacidad de regeneración, vitalidad y su potencial para atender, ahora y en el futuro, las funciones ecológicas, económicas y sociales relevantes a escala local, nacional y global, y que no causan daño a otros ecosistemas” (MCPFE Conference, 1993). Dentro del proceso los procesos de planificación, en cualquier escala, es necesario establecer cuál será la situación a la que se quiere llegar mediante la gestión. Igualmente, será necesario conocer la situación actual, pues marcará la situación de partida y condicionará el tipo de actuaciones a realizar para alcanzar los objetivos fijados. Dado que, los Proyectos de Ordenación de Montes y sus respectivas revisiones son herramientas de planificación, durante la redacción de los mismos, será necesario establecer una serie de objetivos cuya consecución pueda verificarse de forma objetiva y disponer de una caracterización de la masa forestal que permita conocer la situación de partida. Esta tesis se centra en problemas prácticos, propios de una escala de planificación local o de Proyecto de Ordenación de Montes. El primer objetivo de la tesis es determinar distribuciones diamétricas y de alturas de referencia para masas regulares por bosquetes, empleando para ello el modelo conceptual propuesto por García-Abril et al., (1999) y datos procedentes de las Tablas de producción de Rojo y Montero (1996). Las distribuciones de referencia obtenidas permitirán guiar la gestión de masas irregulares y regulares por bosquetes. Ambos tipos de masas aparecen como una alternativa deseable en aquellos casos en los que se quiere potenciar la biodiversidad, la estabilidad, la multifuncionalidad del bosque y/o como alternativa productiva, especialmente indicada para la producción de madera de calidad. El segundo objetivo de la Tesis está relacionado con la necesidad de disponer de una caracterización adecuada de la masa forestal durante la redacción de los Proyectos de Ordenación de Montes y de sus respectivas revisiones. Con el fin de obtener estimaciones de variables forestales en distintas unidades territoriales de potencial interés para la Ordenación de Montes, así como medidas de la incertidumbre en asociada dichas estimaciones, se extienden ciertos resultados de la literatura de Estimación en Áreas Pequeñas. Mediante un caso de estudio, se demuestra el potencial de aplicación de estas técnicas en inventario forestales asistidos con información auxiliar procedente de sensores láser aerotransportados (ALS). Los casos de estudio se realizan empleando datos ALS similares a los recopilados en el marco del Plan Nacional de Ortofotografía Aérea (PNOA). Los resultados obtenidos muestran que es posible aumentar la eficiencia de los inventarios forestales tradicionales a escala de proyecto de Ordenación de Montes, mediante la aplicación de estimadores EBLUP (Empirical Best Linear Unbiased Predictor) con modelos a nivel de elemento poblacional e información auxiliar ALS similar a la recopilada por el PNOA. ABSTRACT According to MCPFE (1993) Sustainable Forest Management is “the stewardship and use of forests and forest lands in a way, and at a rate, that maintains their biodiversity, productivity, regeneration capacity, vitality and their potential to fulfill, now and in the future, relevant ecological, economic and social functions, at local, national, and global levels, and that does not cause damage to other ecosystems”. For forest management planning, at any scale, we must determine what situation is hoped to be achieved through management. It is also necessary to know the current situation, as this will mark the starting point and condition the type of actions to be performed in order to meet the desired objectives. Forest management at a local scale is no exception. This Thesis focuses on typical problems of forest management planning at a local scale. The first objective of this Thesis is to determine management objectives for group shelterwood management systems in terms of tree height and tree diameter reference distributions. For this purpose, the conceptual model proposed by García-Abril et al., (1999) is applied to the yield tables for Pinus sylvestris in Sierra de Guadrrama (Rojo y Montero, 1996). The resulting reference distributions will act as a guide in the management of forests treated under the group shelterwood management systems or as an approximated reference for the management of uneven aged forests. Both types of management systems are desirable in those cases where forest biodiversity, stability and multifunctionality are pursued goals. These management systems are also recommended as alternatives for the production of high quality wood. The second objective focuses on the need to adequately characterize the forest during the decision process that leads to local management. In order to obtain estimates of forest variables for different management units of potential interest for forest planning, as well as the associated measures of uncertainty in these estimates, certain results from Small Area Estimation Literature are extended to accommodate for the need of estimates and reliability measures in very small subpopulations containing a reduced number of pixels. A case study shows the potential of Small Area Estimation (SAE) techniques in forest inventories assisted with remotely sensed auxiliary information. The influence of the laser pulse density in the quality of estimates in different aggregation levels is analyzed. This study considers low laser pulse densities (0.5 returns/m2) similar to, those provided by large-scale Airborne Laser Scanner (ALS) surveys, such as the one conducted by the Spanish National Geographic Institute for about 80% of the Spanish territory. The results obtained show that it is possible to improve the efficiency of traditional forest inventories at local scale using EBLUP (Empirical Best Linear Unbiased Predictor) estimators based on unit level models and low density ALS auxiliary information.

The performance of community organisers in promotion of community forestry in Leyte Province, Phillipines

A study was conducted to assess the role and effectiveness of community organisers in supporting the development of people’s organisations in achieving community-based forest management objectives in Leyte Province Philippines. Community organisers were found to be effective in forming people’s organisations (POs), motivating people to participate in voluntary activities organised by POs and encouraging cohesiveness among PO members. Community organisers manage to raise the level of environmental awareness and knowledge of members of people’s organisations, develop leadership interest and skills, create various livelihood opportunities and provide direction and facilitate the establishment of large tree plantations. However, the short duration of community organisers’ contracts (typically two years) is insufficient to establish mature and cohesive POs prepared to assume management on their own, including the management of tree plantations. Further, lack of training and funding support, low wages, delayed payment of salaries and limited time to work with people’s organisations, as well as the pressure to produce tangible outputs such the establishment of large tree plantations, prevents them from placing greater emphasis on the development and empowerment of the people.