Macro-economic and financial determinants of comovement across global real estate security markets

This paper models the determinants of integration in the context of global real estate security markets. Using both local and U.S. Dollar denominated returns, we model conditional correlations across listed real estate sectors and also with the global stock market. The empirical results find that financial factors, such as the relationship with the respective equity market, volatility, the relative size of the real estate sector and trading turnover all play an important role in the degree of integration present. Furthermore, the results highlight the importance of macro-economic variables in the degree of integration present. All four of the macro-economic variables modeled provide at least one significant result across the specifications estimated. Factors such as financial and trade openness, monetary independence and the stability of a country’s currency all contribute to the degree of integration reported.

Forecasting economic and financial time series with non-linear models

In this paper we discuss the current state-of-the-art in estimating, evaluating, and selecting among non-linear forecasting models for economic and financial time series. We review theoretical and empirical issues, including predictive density, interval and point evaluation and model selection, loss functions, data-mining, and aggregation. In addition, we argue that although the evidence in favor of constructing forecasts using non-linear models is rather sparse, there is reason to be optimistic. However, much remains to be done. Finally, we outline a variety of topics for future research, and discuss a number of areas which have received considerable attention in the recent literature, but where many questions remain.

The impact of economic and financial factors on UK property performance

This paper employs a vector autoregressive model to investigate the impact of macroeconomic and financial variables on a UK real estate return series. The results indicate that unexpected inflation, and the interest rate term spread have explanatory powers for the property market. However, the most significant influence on the real estate series are the lagged values of the real estate series themselves. We conclude that identifying the factors that have determined UK property returns over the past twelve years remains a difficult task.

Hydrogen production by biogas steam reforming: A technical, economic and ecological analysis

Fuel cells are electrochemical energy conversion devices that convert fuel and oxidant electrochemically into electrical energy, water and heat. Compared to traditional electricity generation technologies that use combustion processes to convert fuel into heat, and then into mechanical energy, fuel cells convert the hydrogen and oxygen chemical energy into electrical energy, without intermediate conversion processes, and with higher efficiency. In order to make the fuel cells an achievable and useful technology, it is firstly necessary to develop an economic and efficient way for hydrogen production. Molecular hydrogen is always found combined with other chemical compounds in nature, so it must be isolated. In this paper, the technical, economical and ecological aspects of hydrogen production by biogas steam reforming are presented. The economic feasibility calculation was performed to evaluate how interesting the process is by analyzing the investment, operation and maintenance costs of the biogas steam reformer and the hydrogen production cost achieved the value of 0.27 US$/kWh with a payback period of 8 years. An ecological efficiency of 94.95%, which is a good ecological value, was obtained. The results obtained by these analyses showed that this type of hydrogen production is an environmentally attractive route. © 2013 Elsevier Ltd.

Thermodynamic, Economic and Emissions Analysis of a Micro Gas Turbine Cogeneration System operating on Biofuels

Pós-graduação em Engenharia Mecânica - FEG