855 resultados para Complex systems prediction


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This paper presents a unique environment whose features are able to satisfy requirements for both virtual maintenance and virtual manufacturing through the conception of original virtual reality (VR) architecture. Virtual Reality for the Maintainability and Assemblability Tests (VR_MATE) encompasses VR hardware and software and a simulation manager which allows customisation of the architecture itself as well as interfacing with a wide range of devices employed in the simulations. Two case studies are presented to illustrate VR_MATE's unique ability to allow for both maintainability tests and assembly analysis of an aircraft carriage and a railway coach cooling system respectively. The key impact of this research is the demonstration of the potentialities of using VR techniques in industry and its multiple applications despite the subjective character within the simulation. VR_MATE has been presented as a framework to support the strategic and operative objectives of companies to reduce product development time and costs whilst maintaining product quality for applications which would be too expensive to simulate and evaluate in the real world.

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It has been shown that in reality at least two general scenarios of data structuring are possible: (a) a self-similar (SS) scenario when the measured data form an SS structure and (b) a quasi-periodic (QP) scenario when the repeated (strongly correlated) data form random sequences that are almost periodic with respect to each other. In the second case it becomes possible to describe their behavior and express a part of their randomness quantitatively in terms of the deterministic amplitude–frequency response belonging to the generalized Prony spectrum. This possibility allows us to re-examine the conventional concept of measurements and opens a new way for the description of a wide set of different data. In particular, it concerns different complex systems when the ‘best-fit’ model pretending to be the description of the data measured is absent but the barest necessity of description of these data in terms of the reduced number of quantitative parameters exists. The possibilities of the proposed approach and detection algorithm of the QP processes were demonstrated on actual data: spectroscopic data recorded for pure water and acoustic data for a test hole. The suggested methodology allows revising the accepted classification of different incommensurable and self-affine spatial structures and finding accurate interpretation of the generalized Prony spectroscopy that includes the Fourier spectroscopy as a partial case.

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Learning Disability (LD) is a classification including several disorders in which a child has difficulty in learning in a typical manner, usually caused by an unknown factor or factors. LD affects about 15% of children enrolled in schools. The prediction of learning disability is a complicated task since the identification of LD from diverse features or signs is a complicated problem. There is no cure for learning disabilities and they are life-long. The problems of children with specific learning disabilities have been a cause of concern to parents and teachers for some time. The aim of this paper is to develop a new algorithm for imputing missing values and to determine the significance of the missing value imputation method and dimensionality reduction method in the performance of fuzzy and neuro fuzzy classifiers with specific emphasis on prediction of learning disabilities in school age children. In the basic assessment method for prediction of LD, checklists are generally used and the data cases thus collected fully depends on the mood of children and may have also contain redundant as well as missing values. Therefore, in this study, we are proposing a new algorithm, viz. the correlation based new algorithm for imputing the missing values and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) for reducing the irrelevant attributes. After the study, it is found that, the preprocessing methods applied by us improves the quality of data and thereby increases the accuracy of the classifiers. The system is implemented in Math works Software Mat Lab 7.10. The results obtained from this study have illustrated that the developed missing value imputation method is very good contribution in prediction system and is capable of improving the performance of a classifier.

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A large and complex IT project may involve multiple organizations and be constrained within a temporal period. An organization is a system comprising of people, activities, processes, information, resources and goals. Understanding and modelling such a project and its interrelationship with relevant organizations are essential for organizational project planning. This paper introduces the problem articulation method (PAM) as a semiotic method for organizational infrastructure modelling. PAM offers a suite of techniques, which enables the articulation of the business, technical and organizational requirements, delivering an infrastructural framework to support the organization. It works by eliciting and formalizing (e. g. processes, activities, relationships, responsibilities, communications, resources, agents, dependencies and constraints) and mapping these abstractions to represent the manifestation of the "actual" organization. Many analysts forgo organizational modelling methods and use localized ad hoc and point solutions, but this is not amenable for organizational infrastructures modelling. A case study of the infrared atmospheric sounding interferometer (IASI) will be used to demonstrate the applicability of PAM, and to examine its relevancy and significance in dealing with the innovation and changes in the organizations.

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Developing high-quality scientific research will be most effective if research communities with diverse skills and interests are able to share information and knowledge, are aware of the major challenges across disciplines, and can exploit economies of scale to provide robust answers and better inform policy. We evaluate opportunities and challenges facing the development of a more interactive research environment by developing an interdisciplinary synthesis of research on a single geographic region. We focus on the Amazon as it is of enormous regional and global environmental importance and faces a highly uncertain future. To take stock of existing knowledge and provide a framework for analysis we present a set of mini-reviews from fourteen different areas of research, encompassing taxonomy, biodiversity, biogeography, vegetation dynamics, landscape ecology, earth-atmosphere interactions, ecosystem processes, fire, deforestation dynamics, hydrology, hunting, conservation planning, livelihoods, and payments for ecosystem services. Each review highlights the current state of knowledge and identifies research priorities, including major challenges and opportunities. We show that while substantial progress is being made across many areas of scientific research, our understanding of specific issues is often dependent on knowledge from other disciplines. Accelerating the acquisition of reliable and contextualized knowledge about the fate of complex pristine and modified ecosystems is partly dependent on our ability to exploit economies of scale in shared resources and technical expertise, recognise and make explicit interconnections and feedbacks among sub-disciplines, increase the temporal and spatial scale of existing studies, and improve the dissemination of scientific findings to policy makers and society at large. Enhancing interaction among research efforts is vital if we are to make the most of limited funds and overcome the challenges posed by addressing large-scale interdisciplinary questions. Bringing together a diverse scientific community with a single geographic focus can help increase awareness of research questions both within and among disciplines, and reveal the opportunities that may exist for advancing acquisition of reliable knowledge. This approach could be useful for a variety of globally important scientific questions.

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16th IFIP WG8.1 International Conference on Informatics and Semiotics in Organisations, ICISO 2015

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Smart grid research has tended to be compartmentalised, with notable contributions from economics, electrical engineering and science and technology studies. However, there is an acknowledged and growing need for an integrated systems approach to the evaluation of smart grid initiatives. The capacity to simulate and explore smart grid possibilities on various scales is key to such an integrated approach but existing models – even if multidisciplinary – tend to have a limited focus. This paper describes an innovative and flexible framework that has been developed to facilitate the simulation of various smart grid scenarios and the interconnected social, technical and economic networks from a complex systems perspective. The architecture is described and related to realised examples of its use, both to model the electricity system as it is today and to model futures that have been envisioned in the literature. Potential future applications of the framework are explored, along with its utility as an analytic and decision support tool for smart grid stakeholders.

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A complex system is often identified by the absence of a characteristic length, e.g. as in a fractal. A very large system subject to a fragmentation and/or aggregation dynamics passes through such complex configurations. We study statistically creation and maintenance of such configurations in space dimensions d = 1 to 5 and find that they are easily created (maintained) for small (large) d. An intermediate d such as d = 3 seems to be ideal for the creation and maintenance of complex systems. This has consequences in a statistical description of the universe.

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Power-law distributions, i.e. Levy flights have been observed in various economical, biological, and physical systems in high-frequency regime. These distributions can be successfully explained via gradually truncated Levy flight (GTLF). In general, these systems converge to a Gaussian distribution in the low-frequency regime. In the present work, we develop a model for the physical basis for the cut-off length in GTLF and its variation with respect to the time interval between successive observations. We observe that GTLF automatically approach a Gaussian distribution in the low-frequency regime. We applied the present method to analyze time series in some physical and financial systems. The agreement between the experimental results and theoretical curves is excellent. The present method can be applied to analyze time series in a variety of fields, which in turn provide a basis for the development of further microscopic models for the system. © 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.