Availability estimation and management for complex processing systems

“Availability” is the terminology used in asset intensive industries such as petrochemical and hydrocarbons processing to describe the readiness of equipment, systems or plants to perform their designed functions. It is a measure to suggest a facility’s capability of meeting targeted production in a safe working environment. Availability is also vital as it encompasses reliability and maintainability, allowing engineers to manage and operate facilities by focusing on one performance indicator. These benefits make availability a very demanding and highly desired area of interest and research for both industry and academia. In this dissertation, new models, approaches and algorithms have been explored to estimate and manage the availability of complex hydrocarbon processing systems. The risk of equipment failure and its effect on availability is vital in the hydrocarbon industry, and is also explored in this research. The importance of availability encouraged companies to invest in this domain by putting efforts and resources to develop novel techniques for system availability enhancement. Most of the work in this area is focused on individual equipment compared to facility or system level availability assessment and management. This research is focused on developing an new systematic methods to estimate system availability. The main focus areas in this research are to address availability estimation and management through physical asset management, risk-based availability estimation strategies, availability and safety using a failure assessment framework, and availability enhancement using early equipment fault detection and maintenance scheduling optimization.

Data Based Identification and Prediction of Nonlinear and Complex Dynamical Systems

We thank Dr. R. Yang (formerly at ASU), Dr. R.-Q. Su (formerly at ASU), and Mr. Zhesi Shen for their contributions to a number of original papers on which this Review is partly based. This work was supported by ARO under Grant No. W911NF-14-1-0504. W.-X. Wang was also supported by NSFC under Grants No. 61573064 and No. 61074116, as well as by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities, Beijing Nova Programme.

Functional application of lactic acid bacteria exopolysaccharide in complex food systems

Lactic acid bacteria expolysaccharides (LAB-EPS), in particular those formed from sucrose have the potential to improve food and beverage rheology and enhance their sensory properties potentially replacing or reducing expensive hydrocolloids currently used as improvers in food and beverage industries. Addition of sucrose not only enables EPS formation but also affects organic acid formation, thus influencing the sensory properties of the resulting food/beverage products. The first part of the study the organoleptic modulation of barley malt derived wort fermented using in situ produced bacterial polysaccharides has been investigated. Weisella cibaria MG1 was capable to produce exopolysaccharides during sucrosesupplemented barley malt derived wort fermentation. Even though the strain dominated the (sucrose-supplemented) wort fermentation, it was found to produce EPS (14.4 g l-1) with lower efficiency than in SucMRS (34.6 g l-1). Higher maltose concentration in wort led to the increased formation of oligosaccharide (OS) at the expense of EPS. Additionally, small amounts of organic acids were formed and ethanol remained below 0.5% (v/v). W. cibaria MG1 fermented worts supplemented with 5 or 10% sucrose displayed a shear-thinning behaviour indicating the formation of polymers. This report showed how novel and nutritious LAB fermented wort-base beverage with prospects for further advancements can be formulated using tailored microbial cultures. In the next step, the impact of exopolysaccharide-producing Weissella cibaria MG1 on the ability to improve rheological properties of fermented plant-based milk substitute plant based soy and quinoa grain was evaluated. W. cibaria MG1 grew well in soy milk, exceeding a cell count of log 8 cfu/g within 6 h of fermentation. The presence of W. cibaria MG1 led to a decrease in gelation and fermentation time. EPS isolated from soy yoghurts supplemented with sucrose were higher in molecular weight (1.1 x 108 g/mol vs 6.6 x 107 g/mol), and resulted in reduced gel stiffness (190 ± 2.89 Pa vs 244 ± 15.9 Pa). Soy yoghurts showed typical biopolymer gels structure and the network structure changed to larger pores and less cross-linking in the presence of sucrose and increasing molecular weight of the EPS. In situ investigation of Weissella cibaria MG1 producing EPS on quinoa-based milk was performed. The production of quinoa milk, starting from wholemeal quinoa flour, was optimised to maximise EPS production. On doing that, enzymatic destructuration of protein and carbohydrate components of quinoa milk was successfully achieved applying alpha-amylase and proteases treatments. Fermented wholemeal quinoa milk using Weissella cibaria MG1 showed high viable cell counts (>109 cfu/mL), a pH of 5.16, and significantly higher water holding capacity (WHC, 100 %), viscosity (> 0. 5 Pa s) and exopolysaccharide (EPS) amount (40 mg/L) than the chemically acidified control. High EPS (dextran) concentration in quinoa milk caused earlier aggregation because more EPS occupy more space, and the chenopodin were forced to interact with each other. Direct observation of microstructure in fermented quinoa milk indicated that the network structures of EPS-protein could improve the texture of fermented quinoa milk. Overall, Weissella cibaria MG1 showed favorable technology properties and great potential for further possible application in the development of high viscosity fermented quinoa milk. The last part of the study investigate the ex-situ LAB-EPS (dextran) application compared to other hydrocolloids as a novel food ingredient to compensate for low protein in biscuit and wholemeal wheat flour. Three hydrocolloids, xanthan gum, dextran and hydroxypropyl methylcellulose, were incorporated into bread recipes based on high-protein flours, low-protein flours and coarse wholemeal flour. Hydrocolloid levels of 0–5 % (flour basis) were used in bread recipes to test the water absorption. The quality parameters of dough (farinograph, extensograph, rheofermentometre) and bread (specific volume, crumb structure and staling profile) were determined. Results showed that xanthan had negative impact on the dough and bread quality characteristics. HPMC and dextran generally improved dough and bread quality and showed dosage dependence. Volume of low-protein flour breads were significantly improved by incorporation of 0.5 % of the latter two hydrocolloids. However, dextran outperformed HPMC regarding initial bread hardness and staling shelf life regardless the flour applied in the formulation.

Exploring complex chemical systems: insights from mass spectrometry, electrochemistry and continuous cell culture

The work presented herein covers a broad range of research topics and so, in the interest of clarity, has been presented in a portfolio format. Accordingly, each chapter consists of its own introductory material prior to presentation of the key results garnered, this is then proceeded by a short discussion on their significance. In the first chapter, a methodology to facilitate the resolution and qualitative assessment of very large inorganic polyoxometalates was designed and implemented employing ion-mobility mass spectrometry. Furthermore, the potential of this technique for ‘mapping’ the conformational space occupied by this class of materials was demonstrated. These claims are then substantiated by the development of a tuneable, polyoxometalate-based calibration protocol that provided the necessary platform for quantitative assessments of similarly large, but unknown, polyoxometalate species. In addition, whilst addressing a major limitation of travelling wave ion mobility, this result also highlighted the potential of this technique for solution-phase cluster discovery. The second chapter reports on the application of a biophotovoltaic electrochemical cell for characterising the electrogenic activity inherent to a number of mutant Synechocystis strains. The intention was to determine the key components in the photosynthetic electron transport chain responsible for extracellular electron transfer. This would help to address the significant lack of mechanistic understanding in this field. Finally, in the third chapter, the design and fabrication of a low-cost, highly modular, continuous cell culture system is presented. To demonstrate the advantages and suitability of this platform for experimental evolution investigations, an exploration into the photophysiological response to gradual iron limitation, in both the ancestral wild type and a randomly generated mutant library population, was undertaken. Furthermore, coupling random mutagenesis to continuous culture in this way is shown to constitute a novel source of genetic variation that is open to further investigation.

Automating the product derivation process of multi-agent systems product lines

Agent-oriented software engineering and software product lines are two promising software engineering techniques. Recent research work has been exploring their integration, namely multi-agent systems product lines (MAS-PLs), to promote reuse and variability management in the context of complex software systems. However, current product derivation approaches do not provide specific mechanisms to deal with MAS-PLs. This is essential because they typically encompass several concerns (e.g., trust, coordination, transaction, state persistence) that are constructed on the basis of heterogeneous technologies (e.g., object-oriented frameworks and platforms). In this paper, we propose the use of multi-level models to support the configuration knowledge specification and automatic product derivation of MAS-PLs. Our approach provides an agent-specific architecture model that uses abstractions and instantiation rules that are relevant to this application domain. In order to evaluate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed approach, we have implemented it as an extension of an existing product derivation tool, called GenArch. The approach has also been evaluated through the automatic instantiation of two MAS-PLs, demonstrating its potential and benefits to product derivation and configuration knowledge specification.

Sustainability of systems interoperability in dynamic business networks

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores

Propolis: A complex natural product with a plethora of biological activities that can be explored for drug development

The health industry has always used natural products as a rich, promising, and alternative source of drugs that are used in the health system. Propolis, a natural resinous product known for centuries, is a complex product obtained by honey bees from substances collected from parts of different plants, buds, and exudates in different geographic areas. Propolis has been attracting scientific attention since it has many biological and pharmacological properties, which are related to its chemical composition. Several in vitro and in vivo studies have been performed to characterize and understand the diverse bioactivities of propolis and its isolated compounds, as well as to evaluate and validate its potential. Yet, there is a lack of information concerning clinical effectiveness. The goal of this review is to discuss the potential of propolis for the development of new drugs by presenting published data concerning the chemical composition and the biological properties of this natural compound from different geographic origins.

Empiricism in ecological economics: a perspective from complex systems theory

Economies are open complex adaptive systems far from thermodynamic equilibrium, and neo-classical environmental economics seems not to be the best way to describe the behaviour of such systems. Standard econometric analysis (i.e. time series) takes a deterministic and predictive approach, which encourages the search for predictive policy to ‘correct’ environmental problems. Rather, it seems that, because of the characteristics of economic systems, an ex-post analysis is more appropriate, which describes the emergence of such systems’ properties, and which sees policy as a social steering mechanism. With this background, some of the recent empirical work published in the field of ecological economics that follows the approach defended here is presented. Finally, the conclusion is reached that a predictive use of econometrics (i.e. time series analysis) in ecological economics should be limited to cases in which uncertainty decreases, which is not the normal situation when analysing the evolution of economic systems. However, that does not mean we should not use empirical analysis. On the contrary, this is to be encouraged, but from a structural and ex-post point of view.

The sources of complementary competitive advantages for systems’ manufacturers in the aircraft modernization market

Being a top of high technology industries, the aerospace represents one of the most complex fields of study. While the competitiveness of aircraft systems’ manufacturers attracts a significant number of researchers, some of the issues remain to be a blank spot. One of those is the after-sale modernization. The master thesis investigates how this concept is related to the theory of competitive advantages. Finding the routes in the framework of complex technological systems’ lifecycle, the key drivers of the aircraft modernization market are revealed. The competitive positioning of players is defined through multiple case studies in a form of several in-depth interviews. The key result of the research is the conclusion that modernization should be considered as an inherent component of strategy of any aircraft systems’ manufacturer, while the master thesis aims to support managerial decision making.

Scaling up stepwise feature introduction to construction of large software systems

Developing software is a difficult and error-prone activity. Furthermore, the complexity of modern computer applications is significant. Hence,an organised approach to software construction is crucial. Stepwise Feature Introduction – created by R.-J. Back – is a development paradigm, in which software is constructed by adding functionality in small increments. The resulting code has an organised, layered structure and can be easily reused. Moreover, the interaction with the users of the software and the correctness concerns are essential elements of the development process, contributing to high quality and functionality of the final product. The paradigm of Stepwise Feature Introduction has been successfully applied in an academic environment, to a number of small-scale developments. The thesis examines the paradigm and its suitability to construction of large and complex software systems by focusing on the development of two software systems of significant complexity. Throughout the thesis we propose a number of improvements and modifications that should be applied to the paradigm when developing or reengineering large and complex software systems. The discussion in the thesis covers various aspects of software development that relate to Stepwise Feature Introduction. More specifically, we evaluate the paradigm based on the common practices of object-oriented programming and design and agile development methodologies. We also outline the strategy to testing systems built with the paradigm of Stepwise Feature Introduction.

Meta-models, environment and layers: agent-oriented engineering of complex systems

Traditional software engineering approaches and metaphors fall short when applied to areas of growing relevance such as electronic commerce, enterprise resource planning, and mobile computing: such areas, in fact, generally call for open architectures that may evolve dynamically over time so as to accommodate new components and meet new requirements. This is probably one of the main reasons that the agent metaphor and the agent-oriented paradigm are gaining momentum in these areas. This thesis deals with the engineering of complex software systems in terms of the agent paradigm. This paradigm is based on the notions of agent and systems of interacting agents as fundamental abstractions for designing, developing and managing at runtime typically distributed software systems. However, today the engineer often works with technologies that do not support the abstractions used in the design of the systems. For this reason the research on methodologies becomes the basic point in the scientific activity. Currently most agent-oriented methodologies are supported by small teams of academic researchers, and as a result, most of them are in an early stage and still in the first context of mostly \academic" approaches for agent-oriented systems development. Moreover, such methodologies are not well documented and very often defined and presented only by focusing on specific aspects of the methodology. The role played by meta- models becomes fundamental for comparing and evaluating the methodologies. In fact a meta-model specifies the concepts, rules and relationships used to define methodologies. Although it is possible to describe a methodology without an explicit meta-model, formalising the underpinning ideas of the methodology in question is valuable when checking its consistency or planning extensions or modifications. A good meta-model must address all the different aspects of a methodology, i.e. the process to be followed, the work products to be generated and those responsible for making all this happen. In turn, specifying the work products that must be developed implies dening the basic modelling building blocks from which they are built. As a building block, the agent abstraction alone is not enough to fully model all the aspects related to multi-agent systems in a natural way. In particular, different perspectives exist on the role that environment plays within agent systems: however, it is clear at least that all non-agent elements of a multi-agent system are typically considered to be part of the multi-agent system environment. The key role of environment as a first-class abstraction in the engineering of multi-agent system is today generally acknowledged in the multi-agent system community, so environment should be explicitly accounted for in the engineering of multi-agent system, working as a new design dimension for agent-oriented methodologies. At least two main ingredients shape the environment: environment abstractions - entities of the environment encapsulating some functions -, and topology abstractions - entities of environment that represent the (either logical or physical) spatial structure. In addition, the engineering of non-trivial multi-agent systems requires principles and mechanisms for supporting the management of the system representation complexity. These principles lead to the adoption of a multi-layered description, which could be used by designers to provide different levels of abstraction over multi-agent systems. The research in these fields has lead to the formulation of a new version of the SODA methodology where environment abstractions and layering principles are exploited for en- gineering multi-agent systems.

Matching Social and Ecological Systems in Complex Ocean Fisheries

This paper considers ocean fisheries as complex adaptive systems and addresses the question of how human institutions might be best matched to their structure and function. Ocean ecosystems operate at multiple scales, but the management of fisheries tends to be aimed at a single species considered at a single broad scale. The paper argues that this mismatch of ecological and management scale makes it difficult to address the fine-scale aspects of ocean ecosystems, and leads to fishing rights and strategies that tend to erode the underlying structure of populations and the system itself. A successful transition to ecosystem-based management will require institutions better able to economize on the acquisition of feedback about the impact of human activities. This is likely to be achieved by multiscale institutions whose organization mirrors the spatial organization of the ecosystem and whose communications occur through a polycentric network. Better feedback will allow the exploration of fine-scale science and the employment of fine-scale fishing restraints, better adapted to the behavior of fish and habitat. The scale and scope of individual fishing rights also needs to be congruent with the spatial structure of the ecosystem. Place-based rights can be expected to create a longer private planning horizon as well as stronger incentives for the private and public acquisition of system relevant knowledge.

Introduction to Coding Theory for Flow Equations of Complex Systems Models

The modeling of complex dynamic systems depends on the solution of a differential equations system. Some problems appear because we do not know the mathematical expressions of the said equations. Enough numerical data of the system variables are known. The authors, think that it is very important to establish a code between the different languages to let them codify and decodify information. Coding permits us to reduce the study of some objects to others. Mathematical expressions are used to model certain variables of the system are complex, so it is convenient to define an alphabet code determining the correspondence between these equations and words in the alphabet. In this paper the authors begin with the introduction to the coding and decoding of complex structural systems modeling.

Causality and synchronisation in complex systems with applications to neuroscience

This thesis presents an investigation, of synchronisation and causality, motivated by problems in computational neuroscience. The thesis addresses both theoretical and practical signal processing issues regarding the estimation of interdependence from a set of multivariate data generated by a complex underlying dynamical system. This topic is driven by a series of problems in neuroscience, which represents the principal background motive behind the material in this work. The underlying system is the human brain and the generative process of the data is based on modern electromagnetic neuroimaging methods . In this thesis, the underlying functional of the brain mechanisms are derived from the recent mathematical formalism of dynamical systems in complex networks. This is justified principally on the grounds of the complex hierarchical and multiscale nature of the brain and it offers new methods of analysis to model its emergent phenomena. A fundamental approach to study the neural activity is to investigate the connectivity pattern developed by the brain’s complex network. Three types of connectivity are important to study: 1) anatomical connectivity refering to the physical links forming the topology of the brain network; 2) effective connectivity concerning with the way the neural elements communicate with each other using the brain’s anatomical structure, through phenomena of synchronisation and information transfer; 3) functional connectivity, presenting an epistemic concept which alludes to the interdependence between data measured from the brain network. The main contribution of this thesis is to present, apply and discuss novel algorithms of functional connectivities, which are designed to extract different specific aspects of interaction between the underlying generators of the data. Firstly, a univariate statistic is developed to allow for indirect assessment of synchronisation in the local network from a single time series. This approach is useful in inferring the coupling as in a local cortical area as observed by a single measurement electrode. Secondly, different existing methods of phase synchronisation are considered from the perspective of experimental data analysis and inference of coupling from observed data. These methods are designed to address the estimation of medium to long range connectivity and their differences are particularly relevant in the context of volume conduction, that is known to produce spurious detections of connectivity. Finally, an asymmetric temporal metric is introduced in order to detect the direction of the coupling between different regions of the brain. The method developed in this thesis is based on a machine learning extensions of the well known concept of Granger causality. The thesis discussion is developed alongside examples of synthetic and experimental real data. The synthetic data are simulations of complex dynamical systems with the intention to mimic the behaviour of simple cortical neural assemblies. They are helpful to test the techniques developed in this thesis. The real datasets are provided to illustrate the problem of brain connectivity in the case of important neurological disorders such as Epilepsy and Parkinson’s disease. The methods of functional connectivity in this thesis are applied to intracranial EEG recordings in order to extract features, which characterize underlying spatiotemporal dynamics before during and after an epileptic seizure and predict seizure location and onset prior to conventional electrographic signs. The methodology is also applied to a MEG dataset containing healthy, Parkinson’s and dementia subjects with the scope of distinguishing patterns of pathological from physiological connectivity.

Managing enterprises and ERP systems:a contingency model for the enterprization of operations

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to investigate enterprise resource planning (ERP) systems development and emerging practices in the management of enterprises (i.e. parts of companies working with parts of other companies to deliver a complex product and/or service) and identify any apparent correlations. Suitable a priori contingency frameworks are then used and extended to explain apparent correlations. Discussion is given to provide guidance for researchers and practitioners to deliver better strategic, structural and operational competitive advantage through this approach; coined here as the "enterprization of operations". Design/methodology/approach: Theoretical induction uses a new empirical longitudinal case study from Zoomlion (a Chinese manufacturing company) built using an adapted form of template analysis to produce a new contingency framework. Findings: Three main types of enterprises and the three main types of ERP systems are defined and correlations between them are explained. Two relevant a priori frameworks are used to induct a new contingency model to support the enterprization of operations; known as the dynamic enterprise reference grid for ERP (DERG-ERP). Research limitations/implications: The findings are based on one longitudinal case study. Further case studies are currently being conducted in the UK and China. Practical implications: The new contingency model, the DERG-ERP, serves as a guide for ERP vendors, information systems management and operations managers hoping to grow and sustain their competitive advantage with respect to effective enterprise strategy, enterprise structure and ERP systems. Originality/value: This research explains how ERP systems and the effective management of enterprises should develop in order to sustain competitive advantage with respect to enterprise strategy, enterprise structure and ERP systems use. © Emerald Group Publishing Limited.