Impact of age and comorbidities on long-term survival of patients with high-risk prostate cancer treated with radical prostatectomy: a multi-institutional competing-risks analysis

Survival after surgical treatment using competing-risk analysis has been previously examined in patients with prostate cancer (PCa). However, the combined effect of age and comorbidities has not been assessed in patients with high-risk PCa who might have heterogeneous rates of competing mortality despite the presence of aggressive disease.

Frailty and risk for heart failure in older adults: the health, aging, and body composition study

OBJECTIVE The aim of this study was to assess the association between frailty and risk for heart failure (HF) in older adults. BACKGROUND Frailty is common in the elderly and is associated with adverse health outcomes. Impact of frailty on HF risk is not known. METHODS We assessed the association between frailty, using the Health ABC Short Physical Performance Battery (HABC Battery) and the Gill index, and incident HF in 2825 participants aged 70 to 79 years. RESULTS Mean age of participants was 74 ± 3 years; 48% were men and 59% were white. During a median follow up of 11.4 (7.1-11.7) years, 466 participants developed HF. Compared to non-frail participants, moderate (HR 1.36, 95% CI 1.08-1.71) and severe frailty (HR 1.88, 95% CI 1.02-3.47) by Gill index was associated with a higher risk for HF. HABC Battery score was linearly associated with HF risk after adjusting for the Health ABC HF Model (HR 1.24, 95% CI 1.13-1.36 per SD decrease in score) and remained significant when controlled for death as a competing risk (HR 1.30; 95% CI 1.00-1.55). Results were comparable across age, sex, and race, and in sub-groups based on diabetes mellitus or cardiovascular disease at baseline. Addition of HABC Battery scores to the Health ABC HF Risk Model improved discrimination (change in C-index, 0.014; 95% CI 0.018-0.010) and appropriately reclassified 13.4% (net-reclassification-improvement 0.073, 95% CI 0.021-0.125; P = .006) of participants (8.3% who developed HF and 5.1% who did not). CONCLUSIONS Frailty is independently associated with risk of HF in older adults.

Very long-term survival patterns of young patients treated with radical prostatectomy for high-risk prostate cancer

OBJECTIVE In patients with a long life expectancy with high-risk (HR) prostate cancer (PCa), the chance to die from PCa is not negligible and may change significantly according to the time elapsed from surgery. The aim of this study was to evaluate long-term survival patterns in young patients treated with radical prostatectomy (RP) for HRPCa. MATERIALS AND METHODS Within a multiinstitutional cohort, 600 young patients (≤59 years) treated with RP between 1987 and 2012 for HRPCa (defined as at least one of the following adverse characteristics: prostate specific antigen>20, cT3 or higher, biopsy Gleason sum 8-10) were identified. Smoothed cumulative incidence plot was performed to assess cancer-specific mortality (CSM) and other cause mortality (OCM) rates at 10, 15, and 20 years after RP. The same analyses were performed to assess the 5-year probability of CSM and OCM in patients who survived 5, 10, and 15 years after RP. A multivariable competing risk regression model was fitted to identify predictors of CSM and OCM. RESULTS The 10-, 15- and 20-year CSM and OCM rates were 11.6% and 5.5% vs. 15.5% and 13.5% vs. 18.4% and 19.3%, respectively. The 5-year probability of CSM and OCM rates among patients who survived at 5, 10, and 15 years after RP, were 6.4% and 2.7% vs. 4.6% and 9.6% vs. 4.2% and 8.2%, respectively. Year of surgery, pathological stage and Gleason score, surgical margin status and lymph node invasion were the major determinants of CSM (all P≤0.03). Conversely, none of the covariates was significantly associated with OCM (all P≥ 0.09). CONCLUSIONS Very long-term cancer control in young high-risk patients after RP is highly satisfactory. The probability of dying from PCa in young patients is the leading cause of death during the first 10 years of survivorship after RP. Thereafter, mortality not related to PCa became the main cause of death. Consequently, surgery should be consider among young patients with high-risk disease and strict PCa follow-up should enforce during the first 10 years of survivorship after RP.

Normal Thyroid Function and the Risk of Atrial Fibrillation: the Rotterdam Study

CONTEXT Hyperthyroidism is an established risk factor for atrial fibrillation (AF), but information concerning the association with variations within the normal range of thyroid function and subgroups at risk is lacking. OBJECTIVE This study aimed to investigate the association between normal thyroid function and AF prospectively and explore potential differential risk patterns. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS From the Rotterdam Study we included 9166 participants ≥ 45 y with TSH and/or free T4 (FT4) measurements and AF assessment (1997-2012 median followup, 6.8 y), with 399 prevalent and 403 incident AF cases. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Outcome measures were 3-fold: 1) hazard ratios (HRs) for the risk of incident AF by Cox proportional-hazards models, 2) 10-year absolute risks taking competing risk of death into account, and 3) discrimination ability of adding FT4 to the CHARGE-AF simple model, an established prediction model for AF. RESULTS Higher FT4 levels were associated with higher risks of AF (HR 1.63, 95% confidence interval, 1.19-2.22), when comparing those in the highest quartile to those in lowest quartile. Absolute 10-year risks increased with higher FT4 in participants ≤ 65 y from 1-9% and from 6-12% in subjects ≥ 65 y. Discrimination of the prediction model improved when adding FT4 to the simple model (c-statistic, 0.722 vs 0.729; P = .039). TSH levels were not associated with AF. CONCLUSIONS There is an increased risk of AF with higher FT4 levels within the normal range, especially in younger subjects. Adding FT4 to the simple model slightly improved discrimination of risk prediction.

A Modified Model of Risk Business

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 60K10, 62P05

The Poisson-exponential lifetime distribution

In this paper we proposed a new two-parameters lifetime distribution with increasing failure rate. The new distribution arises on a latent complementary risk problem base. The properties of the proposed distribution are discussed, including a formal proof of its probability density function and explicit algebraic formulae for its reliability and failure rate functions, quantiles and moments, including the mean and variance. A simple EM-type algorithm for iteratively computing maximum likelihood estimates is presented. The Fisher information matrix is derived analytically in order to obtaining the asymptotic covariance matrix. The methodology is illustrated on a real data set. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Total Exposure and Exposure Rate Effects for Alcohol and Smoking and Risk of Head and Neck Cancer: A Pooled Analysis of Case-Control Studies

Although cigarette smoking and alcohol consumption increase risk for head and neck cancers, there have been few attempts to model risks quantitatively and to formally evaluate cancer site-specific risks. The authors pooled data from 15 case-control studies and modeled the excess odds ratio (EOR) to assess risk by total exposure (pack-years and drink-years) and its modification by exposure rate (cigarettes/day and drinks/day). The smoking analysis included 1,761 laryngeal, 2,453 pharyngeal, and 1,990 oral cavity cancers, and the alcohol analysis included 2,551 laryngeal, 3,693 pharyngeal, and 3,116 oval cavity cancers, with over 8,000 controls. Above 15 cigarettes/day, the EOR/pack-year decreased with increasing cigarettes/day, suggesting that greater cigarettes/day for a shorter duration was less deleterious than fewer cigarettes/day for a longer duration. Estimates of EOR/pack-year were homogeneous across sites, while the effects of cigarettes/day varied, indicating that the greater laryngeal cancer risk derived from differential cigarettes/day effects and not pack-years. EOR/drink-year estimates increased through 10 drinks/day, suggesting that greater drinks/day for a shorter duration was more deleterious than fewer drinks/day for a longer duration. Above 10 drinks/day, data were limited. EOR/drink-year estimates varied by site, while drinks/day effects were homogeneous, indicating that the greater pharyngeal/oral cavity cancer risk with alcohol consumption derived from the differential effects of drink-years and not drinks/day.

Credit risk stress testing: The Portuguese environment, macroeconomic scenarios and the estimation of losses for corporate sectors

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Risk of employing an evolvable production system

Nowadays manufacturing companies are facing a more challenging environment due to the unpredictability of the markets in order to survive. Enterprises need to keep innovating and deliver products with new internal or external characteristics. There are strategies and solutions, to different organisational level from strategic to operational, when technology is growing faster in operational level, more specifically in manufacturing system. This means that companies have to deal with the changes of the emergent manufacturing systems while it can be expensive and not easy to be implement. An agile manufacturing system can help to cope with the markets changeability. Evolvable Production Systems (EPS) is an emergent paradigm which aims to bring new solutions to deal with changeability. The proposed paradigm is characterised by modularity and intends to introduce high flexibility and dynamism at shop floor level through the use of the evolution of new computational devices and technology. This new approach brings to enterprises the ability to plug and unplug new devices and allowing fast reformulation of the production line without reprogramming. There is no doubt about the advantages and benefits of this emerging technology but the feasibility and applicability is still under questioned. Most researches in this area are focused on technical side, explaining the advantages of those systems while there are no sufficient works discussing the implementation risks from different perspective, including business owner. The main objective of this work is to propose a methodology and model to identify, classify and measure potential risk associated with an implementation of this emergent paradigm. To quantify the proposed comprehensive risk model, an Intelligent Decision system is developed employing Fuzzy Inference System to deal with the knowledge of experts, as there are no historical data and sufficient research on this area. The result can be the vulnerability assessment of implementing EPS technology in manufacturing companies when the focus is more on SMEs. The present dissertation used the experts’ knowledge and experiences, who were involved in FP7 project IDEAS, which is one of the leading projects in this area.

Polypharmacy is Associated with an Increased Risk of Bleeding in Elderly Patients with Venous Thromboembolism.

BACKGROUND: Polypharmacy, defined as the concomitant use of multiple medications, is very common in the elderly and may trigger drug-drug interactions and increase the risk of falls in patients receiving vitamin K antagonists. OBJECTIVE: To examine whether polypharmacy increases the risk of bleeding in elderly patients who receive vitamin K antagonists for acute venous thromboembolism (VTE). DESIGN: We used a prospective cohort study. PARTICIPANTS: In a multicenter Swiss cohort, we studied 830 patients aged ≥ 65 years with VTE. MAIN MEASURES: We defined polypharmacy as the prescription of more than four different drugs. We assessed the association between polypharmacy and the time to a first major and clinically relevant non-major bleeding, accounting for the competing risk of death. We adjusted for known bleeding risk factors (age, gender, pulmonary embolism, active cancer, arterial hypertension, cardiac disease, cerebrovascular disease, chronic liver and renal disease, diabetes mellitus, history of major bleeding, recent surgery, anemia, thrombocytopenia) and periods of vitamin K antagonist treatment as a time-varying covariate. KEY RESULTS: Overall, 413 (49.8 %) patients had polypharmacy. The mean follow-up duration was 17.8 months. Patients with polypharmacy had a significantly higher incidence of major (9.0 vs. 4.1 events/100 patient-years; incidence rate ratio [IRR] 2.18, 95 % confidence interval [CI] 1.32-3.68) and clinically relevant non-major bleeding (14.8 vs. 8.0 events/100 patient-years; IRR 1.85, 95 % CI 1.27-2.71) than patients without polypharmacy. After adjustment, polypharmacy was significantly associated with major (sub-hazard ratio [SHR] 1.83, 95 % CI 1.03-3.25) and clinically relevant non-major bleeding (SHR 1.60, 95 % CI 1.06-2.42). CONCLUSIONS: Polypharmacy is associated with an increased risk of both major and clinically relevant non-major bleeding in elderly patients receiving vitamin K antagonists for VTE.

Extremal properties of certain risk models

Cette thèse s'intéresse à étudier les propriétés extrémales de certains modèles de risque d'intérêt dans diverses applications de l'assurance, de la finance et des statistiques. Cette thèse se développe selon deux axes principaux, à savoir: Dans la première partie, nous nous concentrons sur deux modèles de risques univariés, c'est-à- dire, un modèle de risque de déflation et un modèle de risque de réassurance. Nous étudions le développement des queues de distribution sous certaines conditions des risques commun¬s. Les principaux résultats sont ainsi illustrés par des exemples typiques et des simulations numériques. Enfin, les résultats sont appliqués aux domaines des assurances, par exemple, les approximations de Value-at-Risk, d'espérance conditionnelle unilatérale etc. La deuxième partie de cette thèse est consacrée à trois modèles à deux variables: Le premier modèle concerne la censure à deux variables des événements extrême. Pour ce modèle, nous proposons tout d'abord une classe d'estimateurs pour les coefficients de dépendance et la probabilité des queues de distributions. Ces estimateurs sont flexibles en raison d'un paramètre de réglage. Leurs distributions asymptotiques sont obtenues sous certaines condi¬tions lentes bivariées de second ordre. Ensuite, nous donnons quelques exemples et présentons une petite étude de simulations de Monte Carlo, suivie par une application sur un ensemble de données réelles d'assurance. L'objectif de notre deuxième modèle de risque à deux variables est l'étude de coefficients de dépendance des queues de distributions obliques et asymétriques à deux variables. Ces distri¬butions obliques et asymétriques sont largement utiles dans les applications statistiques. Elles sont générées principalement par le mélange moyenne-variance de lois normales et le mélange de lois normales asymétriques d'échelles, qui distinguent la structure de dépendance de queue comme indiqué par nos principaux résultats. Le troisième modèle de risque à deux variables concerne le rapprochement des maxima de séries triangulaires elliptiques obliques. Les résultats théoriques sont fondés sur certaines hypothèses concernant le périmètre aléatoire sous-jacent des queues de distributions. -- This thesis aims to investigate the extremal properties of certain risk models of interest in vari¬ous applications from insurance, finance and statistics. This thesis develops along two principal lines, namely: In the first part, we focus on two univariate risk models, i.e., deflated risk and reinsurance risk models. Therein we investigate their tail expansions under certain tail conditions of the common risks. Our main results are illustrated by some typical examples and numerical simu¬lations as well. Finally, the findings are formulated into some applications in insurance fields, for instance, the approximations of Value-at-Risk, conditional tail expectations etc. The second part of this thesis is devoted to the following three bivariate models: The first model is concerned with bivariate censoring of extreme events. For this model, we first propose a class of estimators for both tail dependence coefficient and tail probability. These estimators are flexible due to a tuning parameter and their asymptotic distributions are obtained under some second order bivariate slowly varying conditions of the model. Then, we give some examples and present a small Monte Carlo simulation study followed by an application on a real-data set from insurance. The objective of our second bivariate risk model is the investigation of tail dependence coefficient of bivariate skew slash distributions. Such skew slash distributions are extensively useful in statistical applications and they are generated mainly by normal mean-variance mixture and scaled skew-normal mixture, which distinguish the tail dependence structure as shown by our principle results. The third bivariate risk model is concerned with the approximation of the component-wise maxima of skew elliptical triangular arrays. The theoretical results are based on certain tail assumptions on the underlying random radius.

Risk of falls and bleeding in elderly patients with acute venous thromboembolism.

OBJECTIVE: Whether or not a high risk of falls increases the risk of bleeding in patients receiving anticoagulants remains a matter of debate. METHODS: We conducted a prospective cohort study involving 991 patients ≥65 years of age who received anticoagulants for acute venous thromboembolism (VTE) at nine Swiss hospitals between September 2009 and September 2012. The study outcomes were as follows: the time to a first major episode of bleeding; and clinically relevant nonmajor bleeding. We determined the associations between the risk of falls and the time to a first episode of bleeding using competing risk regression, accounting for death as a competing event. We adjusted for known bleeding risk factors and anticoagulation as a time-varying covariate. RESULTS: Four hundred fifty-eight of 991 patients (46%) were at high risk of falls. The mean duration of follow-up was 16.7 months. Patients at high risk of falls had a higher incidence of major bleeding (9.6 vs. 6.6 events/100 patient-years; P = 0.05) and a significantly higher incidence of clinically relevant nonmajor bleeding (16.7 vs. 8.3 events/100 patient-years; P < 0.001) than patients at low risk of falls. After adjustment, a high risk of falls was associated with clinically relevant nonmajor bleeding [subhazard ratio (SHR) = 1.74, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.23-2.46], but not with major bleeding (SHR = 1.24, 95% CI = 0.83-1.86). CONCLUSION: In elderly patients who receive anticoagulants because of VTE, a high risk of falls is significantly associated with clinically relevant nonmajor bleeding, but not with major bleeding. Whether or not a high risk of falls is a reason against providing anticoagulation beyond 3 months should be based on patient preferences and the risk of VTE recurrence.

Delimitation of kala-azar risk areas in the district of Vaishali in Bihar (India) using a geo-environmental approach

Remote sensing and geographical information technologies were used to discriminate areas of high and low risk for contracting kala-azar or visceral leishmaniasis. Satellite data were digitally processed to generate maps of land cover and spectral indices, such as the normalised difference vegetation index and wetness index. To map estimated vector abundance and indoor climate data, local polynomial interpolations were used based on the weightage values. Attribute layers were prepared based on illiteracy and the unemployed proportion of the population and associated with village boundaries. Pearson's correlation coefficient was used to estimate the relationship between environmental variables and disease incidence across the study area. The cell values for each input raster in the analysis were assigned values from the evaluation scale. Simple weighting/ratings based on the degree of favourable conditions for kala-azar transmission were used for all the variables, leading to geo-environmental risk model. Variables such as, land use/land cover, vegetation conditions, surface dampness, the indoor climate, illiteracy rates and the size of the unemployed population were considered for inclusion in the geo-environmental kala-azar risk model. The risk model was stratified into areas of "risk"and "non-risk"for the disease, based on calculation of risk indices. The described approach constitutes a promising tool for microlevel kala-azar surveillance and aids in directing control efforts.

Relevant gender differences in epidemiological profile, exposure to first antiretroviral regimen and survival in the Spanish AIDS Research Network Cohort.

BACKGROUND The possible differences in the disease spectrum and prognosis of HIV infection in women and men is a major point of concern. Women are under-represented in randomized clinical trials and in some cohorts. Discordant results have often been obtained depending on the setting. METHODS We assessed gender differences in clinical and epidemiological features, antiretroviral treatment (ART) exposure and survival in two multicentre cohorts of HIV-positive subjects in Spain: CoRIS-MD and CoRIS. Competing risk regression models were used to assess gender effect on time to start ART and time to first ART change, and a Cox regression model to estimate gender effect on time to death. RESULTS Between January 1996 and December 2008, 1,953 women and 6,072 men naive to ART at study entry were included. The trend analysis over time showed the percentage of women in the younger (<20 years) and older (>50 years) strata increased significantly (P<0.001) from 0.5% and 1.8% in 1996 to 4.9% and 4.2% in 2008, respectively. By competing risk analysis women started ART earlier than men (adjusted subhazard ratio [ASHR] 1.21, 95% CI 1.11, 1.31) in CoRIS cohort, while in CoRIS-MD none of these differences were observed. In both cohorts women showed a shorter time to the first ART change (ASHR 1.10, 95% CI 1.01, 1.19). Pregnancy and patient's/physician's decisions as reasons for changing were more frequent in women than in men in CoRIS. In the Cox regression model, gender was not associated with differences in survival. CONCLUSIONS In two large cohorts in Spain, we observed relevant gender differences in epidemiological characteristics and antiretroviral exposure outcomes, while survival differences were not attributable to gender.