An EM-based Semi-Parametric Mixture Model Approach to the Regression Analysis of Competing-Risks Data

We consider a mixture model approach to the regression analysis of competing-risks data. Attention is focused on inference concerning the effects of factors on both the probability of occurrence and the hazard rate conditional on each of the failure types. These two quantities are specified in the mixture model using the logistic model and the proportional hazards model, respectively. We propose a semi-parametric mixture method to estimate the logistic and regression coefficients jointly, whereby the component-baseline hazard functions are completely unspecified. Estimation is based on maximum likelihood on the basis of the full likelihood, implemented via an expectation-conditional maximization (ECM) algorithm. Simulation studies are performed to compare the performance of the proposed semi-parametric method with a fully parametric mixture approach. The results show that when the component-baseline hazard is monotonic increasing, the semi-parametric and fully parametric mixture approaches are comparable for mildly and moderately censored samples. When the component-baseline hazard is not monotonic increasing, the semi-parametric method consistently provides less biased estimates than a fully parametric approach and is comparable in efficiency in the estimation of the parameters for all levels of censoring. The methods are illustrated using a real data set of prostate cancer patients treated with different dosages of the drug diethylstilbestrol. Copyright (C) 2003 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.

Anatase as an alternative application for preventing biodeterioration of mortars: evaluation and comparison with other biocides

International Biodeterioration & Biodegradation 64(2010)388 e 396

Analysing the impact of public capital stock using the NEG wage equation: a panel data approach

This paper examines the relationship between the level of public infrastructure and the level of productivity using panel data for the Spanish provinces over the period 1984-2004, a period which is particularly relevant due to the substantial changes occurring in the Spanish economy at that time. The underlying model used for the data analysis is based on the wage equation, which is one of a handful of simultaneous equations which when satisfied correspond to the short-run equilibrium of New Economic Geography theory. This is estimated using a spatial panel model with fixed time and province effects, so that unmodelled space and time constant sources of heterogeneity are eliminated. The model assumes that productivity depends on the level of educational attainment and the public capital stock endowment of each province. The results show that although changes in productivity are positively associated with changes in public investment within the same province, there is a negative relationship between productivity changes and changes in public investment in other regions.

Evaluating the Relationship between the Driver and Roadway to Address Rural Intersection Safety using the SHRP 2 Naturalistic Driving Study Data, RB05-013, 2016

Rural intersections account for 30% of crashes in rural areas and 6% of all fatal crashes, representing a significant but poorly understood safety problem. Transportation agencies have traditionally implemented countermeasures to address rural intersection crashes but frequently do not understand the dynamic interaction between the driver and roadway and the driver factors leading to these types of crashes. The Second Strategic Highway Research Program (SHRP 2) conducted a large-scale naturalistic driving study (NDS) using instrumented vehicles. The study has provided a significant amount of on-road driving data for a range of drivers. The present study utilizes the SHRP 2 NDS data as well as SHRP 2 Roadway Information Database (RID) data to observe driver behavior at rural intersections first hand using video, vehicle kinematics, and roadway data to determine how roadway, driver, environmental, and vehicle factors interact to affect driver safety at rural intersections. A model of driver braking behavior was developed using a dataset of vehicle activity traces for several rural stop-controlled intersections. The model was developed using the point at which a driver reacts to the upcoming intersection by initiating braking as its dependent variable, with the driver’s age, type and direction of turning movement, and countermeasure presence as independent variables. Countermeasures such as on-pavement signing and overhead flashing beacons were found to increase the braking point distance, a finding that provides insight into the countermeasures’ effect on safety at rural intersections. The results of this model can lead to better roadway design, more informed selection of traffic control and countermeasures, and targeted information that can inform policy decisions. Additionally, a model of gap acceptance was attempted but was ultimately not developed due to the small size of the dataset. However, a protocol for data reduction for a gap acceptance model was determined. This protocol can be utilized in future studies to develop a gap acceptance model that would provide additional insight into the roadway, vehicle, environmental, and driver factors that play a role in whether a driver accepts or rejects a gap.

The relationship between anxiety and depression in animal models: a study using the forced swimming test and elevated plus-maze

The present study evaluated the correlation between the behavior of mice in the forced swimming test (FST) and in the elevated plus-maze (PM). The effect of the order of the experiments, i.e., the influence of the first test (FST or PM) on mouse behavior in the second test (PM or FST, respectively) was compared to handled animals (HAND). The execution of FST one week before the plus-maze (FST-PM, N = 10), in comparison to mice that were only handled (HAND-PM, N = 10) in week 1, decreased % open entries (HAND-PM: 33.6 ± 2.9; FST-PM: 20.0 ± 3.9; mean ± SEM; P<0.02) and % open time (HAND-PM: 18.9 ± 3.3; FST-PM: 9.0 ± 1.9; P<0.03), suggesting an anxiogenic effect. No significant effect was seen in the number of closed arm entries (FST-PM: 9.5 (7.0-11.0); HAND-PM: 10.0 (4.0-14.5), median (interquartile range); U = 46.5; P>0.10). A prior test in the plus-maze (PM-FST) did not change % immobility time in the FST when compared to the HAND-FST group (HAND-FST: 57.7 ± 3.9; PM-FST: 65.7 ± 3.2; mean ± SEM; P>0.10). Since these data suggest that there is an order effect, the correlation was evaluated separately with each test sequence: FST-PM (N = 20) and PM-FST (N = 18). There was no significant correlation between % immobility time in the FST and plus-maze indexes (% time and entries in open arms) in any test sequence (r: -0.07 to 0.18). These data suggest that mouse behavior in the elevated plus-maze is not related to behavior in the forced swimming test and that a forced swimming test before the plus-maze has an anxiogenic effect even after a one-week interval.

Realization of Optical Logic Gates Using the Thermal Lens Effect

A sensitive method based on the principle of photothermal phenomena to realize optical logic gates is presented. A dual beam thermal lens method using low power cw lasers in a dye-doped polymer can be very effectively used as an alternate technique to perform the logical function such as NAND, AND and OR.

A solar storm observed from the Sun to Venus using the STEREO, Venus Express, and MESSENGER spacecraft

The suite of SECCHI optical imaging instruments on the STEREO-A spacecraft is used to track a solar storm, consisting of several coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and other coronal loops, as it propagates from the Sun into the heliosphere during May 2007. The 3-D propagation path of the largest interplanetary CME (ICME) is determined from the observations made by the SECCHI Heliospheric Imager (HI) on STEREO-A (HI-1/2A). Two parts of the CME are tracked through the SECCHI images, a bright loop and a V-shaped feature located at the rear of the event. We show that these two structures could be the result of line-of-sight integration of the light scattered by electrons located on a single flux rope. In addition to being imaged by HI, the CME is observed simultaneously by the plasma and magnetic field experiments on the Venus Express and MESSENGER spacecraft. The imaged loop and V-shaped structure bound, as expected, the flux rope observed in situ. The SECCHI images reveal that the leading loop-like structure propagated faster than the V-shaped structure, and a decrease in in situ CME speed occurred during the passage of the flux rope.We interpret this as the result of the continuous radial expansion of the flux rope as it progressed outward through the interplanetary medium. An expansion speed in the radial direction of ~30 km s-1 is obtained directly from the SECCHI-HI images and is in agreement with the difference in speed of the two structures observed in situ. This paper shows that the flux rope location can be determined from white light images, which could have important space weather applications.

Trade-offs and responsiveness of the single-layer urban canopy parametrization in WRF: an offline evaluation using the MOSCEM optimization algorithm and field observations

For an increasing number of applications, mesoscale modelling systems now aim to better represent urban areas. The complexity of processes resolved by urban parametrization schemes varies with the application. The concept of fitness-for-purpose is therefore critical for both the choice of parametrizations and the way in which the scheme should be evaluated. A systematic and objective model response analysis procedure (Multiobjective Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis (MOSCEM) algorithm) is used to assess the fitness of the single-layer urban canopy parametrization implemented in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The scheme is evaluated regarding its ability to simulate observed surface energy fluxes and the sensitivity to input parameters. Recent amendments are described, focussing on features which improve its applicability to numerical weather prediction, such as a reduced and physically more meaningful list of input parameters. The study shows a high sensitivity of the scheme to parameters characterizing roof properties in contrast to a low response to road-related ones. Problems in partitioning of energy between turbulent sensible and latent heat fluxes are also emphasized. Some initial guidelines to prioritize efforts to obtain urban land-cover class characteristics in WRF are provided. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society and Crown Copyright.

Drizzle and Fog Analysis in the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area: Changes 1933-2005 and Correlations with other Climate Factors

In order to improve our understanding of climate change, the aim of this research project was to study the climatology and the time trends of drizzle and fog events in the Sao Paulo Metropolitan Area, and the possible connections of this variability with the sea surface temperature (SST) of the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. The climatology of both phenomena presents differences and similarities. Fog shows a marked maximum frequency in winter and a minimum frequency in summer, while the seasonal differences of drizzle occurrence are less pronounced, there is a maximum in spring, whereas the other seasons present smaller and similar numbers of events. Both phenomena present a negative trend from 1933 to 2005 which is stronger for fog events. A multivariate statistical analysis indicates that the South Atlantic SST could increase warm temperature advection to the continent. This could be one of the responsible factors for the negative tendency in the number of both fog and drizzle events.

Genotoxicity and mutagenicity of water contaminated with tannery effluents, as evaluated by the micronucleus test and comet assay using the fish Oreochromis niloticus and chromosome aberrations in onion root-tips

Cytotoxicity of metals is important because some metals are potential mutagens able to induce tumors in humans and experimental animals. Chromium can damage DNA in several ways, including DNA double strand breaks (DSBs) which generate chromosomal aberrations, micronucleus formation, sister chromatid exchange, formation of DNA adducts and alterations in DNA replication and transcription. In our study, water samples from three sites in the Córrego dos Bagres stream in the Franca municipality of the Brazilian state of São Paulo were subjected to the comet assay and micronucleus test using erythrocytes from the fish Oreochromis niloticus. Nuclear abnormalities of the erythrocytes included blebbed, notched and lobed nuclei, probably due to genotoxic chromium compounds. The greatest comet assay damage occurred with water from a chromium-containing tannery effluent discharge site, supporting the hypothesis that chromium residues can be genotoxic. The mutagenicity of the water samples was assessed using the onion root-tip cell assay, the most frequent chromosomal abnormalities observed being: c-metaphases, stick chromosome, chromosome breaks and losses, bridged anaphases, multipolar anaphases, and micronucleated and binucleated cells. Onion root-tip cell mutagenicity was highest for water samples containing the highest levels of chromium.

Linear readout of dynamic phase modulation index in an optical voltage sensor using the new J(1) ... J(3) spectral method

The J(1)...J(3) is a recent optical method for linear readout of dynamic phase modulation index in homodyne interferometers. In this work, the J(1)... J(3) method is applied to measure voltage in an optical voltage sensor. Based on the classical J(1)...J(4) method, the J(1)... J(3) technique shows to be more stable to phase drift and simpler for implementation than the original one. The sensor dynamic range is enhanced. The agreement between theoretical and experimental results, based on 1/f noise, is demonstrated.

Genetic variability of Brazilian strains of the Microcystis aeruginosa complex (Cyanobacteria/Cyanophyceae) using the phycocyanin intergenic spacer and flanking regions (cpcBA)

The genetic and morphological variability among 15 Brazilian strains of Microcystis aeruginosa (Kütz.) Kütz. collected from four locations was examined and compared with several reference strains of M. aeruginosa, M. viridis (A. Br.) Lemm. and M. wesenbergii (Kom.) Kom. in Kondr. Brazilian strains were classified by morphological features and by comparison of the nucleotide sequences of the cpcBA intergenic spacer and flanking regions. Our results indicate that Brazilian strains classified as M. aeruginosa are phylogenetically diverse compared with reference strains of M. aeruginosa and that the current taxonomy underestimates genetic diversity within M. aeruginosa. The data also demonstrate that morphological criteria alone are inadequate to characterize Microcystis species. Although colonial characters were shown to vary considerably in culture, some genetic lineages demonstrated consistent cellular diameter ranges, indicating that cell size has value as a taxonomic character. The detection of six M. aeruginosa genotypes in a single water body indicates that morphological approaches can also seriously underestimate the diversity of Microcystis bloom populations.

A prospective study on implants installed with flapless-guided surgery using the all-on-four concept in the mandible

Aim: Clinical data are scarce on flapless-guided surgery in the mandible using the all-on-four concept. In addition, limited documentation exists on the latter under immediate loading conditions with a pre-fabricated implant bridge. The aim was to provide detailed documentation focusing on clinical and radiographic outcome and complications. Material and methods: Sixteen systemically healthy non-smoking patients (10 women, 6 men, average age 59 years) with sufficient bone volume in the mandible were operated via flapless-guided surgery using the all-on-four concept. Clinical and radiographic data and complications were registered at 3, 6 and 12 months. Results: The overall implant survival rate was 90% with a trend for higher failure of short implants (P = 0.098). The mean bone level after 12 months of function was 0.83 mm with a maximum of 1.07 mm. Technical complications were common (15/16 patients). These mainly related to a misfit between the pre-fabricated prosthesis and abutment(s) (13/16 patients). Conclusion: If immediate loading of implants is pursued fabrication of the implant bridge should be based on actual impression of the implants at the time of surgery and not on their virtual position. © 2011 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

A continuous multi-millennial record of surficial bivalve mollusk shells from the Sao Paulo Bight, Brazilian shelf

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)