Bounds on policy relevant parameters with discrete policy variation

When estimating policy parameters, also known as treatment effects, the assignment to treatment mechanism almost always causes endogeneity and thus bias many of these policy parameters estimates. Additionally, heterogeneity in program impacts is more likely to be the norm than the exception for most social programs. In situations where these issues are present, the Marginal Treatment Effect (MTE) parameter estimation makes use of an instrument to avoid assignment bias and simultaneously to account for heterogeneous effects throughout individuals. Although this parameter is point identified in the literature, the assumptions required for identification may be strong. Given that, we use weaker assumptions in order to partially identify the MTE, i.e. to stablish a methodology for MTE bounds estimation, implementing it computationally and showing results from Monte Carlo simulations. The partial identification we perfom requires the MTE to be a monotone function over the propensity score, which is a reasonable assumption on several economics' examples, and the simulation results shows it is possible to get informative even in restricted cases where point identification is lost. Additionally, in situations where estimated bounds are not informative and the traditional point identification is lost, we suggest a more generic method to point estimate MTE using the Moore-Penrose Pseudo-Invese Matrix, achieving better results than traditional methods.

Systematic Variation in the Pattern of Gene Paralog Retention between the Teleost Superorders Ostariophysi and Acanthopterygii

Teleost fish underwent whole-genome duplication around 450 Ma followed by diploidization and loss of 80-85% of the duplicated genes. To identify a deep signature of this teleost-specific whole-genome duplication (TSGD), we searched for duplicated genes that were systematically and uniquely retained in one or other of the superorders Ostariophysi and Acanthopterygii. TSGD paralogs comprised 17-21% of total gene content. Some 2.6% (510) of TSGD paralogs were present as pairs in the Ostariophysi genomes of Danio rerio (Cypriniformes) and Astyanax mexicanus (Characiformes) but not in species from four orders of Acanthopterygii (Gasterosteiformes, Gasterosteus aculeatus; Tetraodontiformes, Tetraodon nigroviridis; Perciformes, Oreochromis niloticus; and Beloniformes, Oryzias latipes) where a single copy was identified. Similarly, 1.3% (418) of total gene number represented cases where TSGD paralogs pairs were systematically retained in the Acanthopterygian but conserved as a single copy in Ostariophysi genomes. We confirmed the generality of these results by phylogenetic and synteny analysis of 40 randomly selected linage-specific paralogs (LSPs) from each superorder and completed with the transcriptomes of three additional Ostariophysi species (Ictalurus punctatus [Siluriformes], Sinocyclocheilus species [Cypriniformes], and Piaractus mesopotamicus [Characiformes]). No chromosome bias was detected in TSGD paralog retention. Gene ontology (GO) analysis revealed significant enrichment of GO terms relative to the human GO SLIM database for growth, Cell differentiation, and Embryo development in Ostariophysi and for Transport, Signal Transduction, and Vesicle mediated transport in Acanthopterygii. The observed patterns of paralog retention are consistent with different diploidization outcomes having contributed to the evolution/diversification of each superorder.

Regulatory variation in a TBX5 enhancer leads to isolated congenital heart disease

Recent studies have identified the genetic underpinnings of a growing number of diseases through targeted exome sequencing. However, this strategy ignores the large component of the genome that does not code for proteins, but is nonetheless biologically functional. To address the possible involvement of regulatory variation in congenital heart diseases (CHDs), we searched for regulatory mutations impacting the activity of TBX5, a dosage-dependent transcription factor with well-defined roles in the heart and limb development that has been associated with the HoltOram syndrome (hearthand syndrome), a condition that affects 1/100 000 newborns. Using a combination of genomics, bioinformatics and mouse genetic engineering, we scanned approximate to 700 kb of the TBX5 locus in search of cis-regulatory elements. We uncovered three enhancers that collectively recapitulate the endogenous expression pattern of TBX5 in the developing heart. We re-sequenced these enhancer elements in a cohort of non-syndromic patients with isolated atrial and/or ventricular septal defects, the predominant cardiac defects of the HoltOram syndrome, and identified a patient with a homozygous mutation in an enhancer approximate to 90 kb downstream of TBX5. Notably, we demonstrate that this single-base-pair mutation abrogates the ability of the enhancer to drive expression within the heart in vivo using both mouse and zebrafish transgenic models. Given the population-wide frequency of this variant, we estimate that 1/100 000 individuals would be homozygous for this variant, highlighting that a significant number of CHD associated with TBX5 dysfunction might arise from non-coding mutations in TBX5 heart enhancers, effectively decoupling the heart and hand phenotypes of the HoltOram syndrome.

Shear force and torsion in reinforced concrete beam elements: theoretical analysis based on Brazilian Standard Code ABNT NBR 6118:2007

Reinforced concrete beam elements are submitted to applicable loads along their life cycle that cause shear and torsion. These elements may be subject to only shear, pure torsion or both, torsion and shear combined. The Brazilian Standard Code ABNT NBR 6118:2007 [1] fixes conditions to calculate the transverse reinforcement area in beam reinforced concrete elements, using two design models, based on the strut and tie analogy model, first studied by Mörsch [2]. The strut angle θ (theta) can be considered constant and equal to 45º (Model I), or varying between 30º and 45º (Model II). In the case of transversal ties (stirrups), the variation of angle α (alpha) is between 45º and 90º. When the equilibrium torsion is required, a resistant model based on space truss with hollow section is considered. The space truss admits an inclination angle θ between 30º and 45º, in accordance with beam elements subjected to shear. This paper presents a theoretical study of models I and II for combined shear and torsion, in which ranges the geometry and intensity of action in reinforced concrete beams, aimed to verify the consumption of transverse reinforcement in accordance with the calculation model adopted As the strut angle on model II ranges from 30º to 45º, transverse reinforcement area (Asw) decreases, and total reinforcement area, which includes longitudinal torsion reinforcement (Asℓ), increases. It appears that, when considering model II with strut angle above 40º, under shear only, transverse reinforcement area increases 22% compared to values obtained using model I.

Code synchronization and interference management techniques for satellite navigation and communications

This thesis collects the outcomes of a Ph.D. course in Telecommunications engineering and it is focused on enabling techniques for Spread Spectrum (SS) navigation and communication satellite systems. It provides innovations for both interference management and code synchronization techniques. These two aspects are critical for modern navigation and communication systems and constitute the common denominator of the work. The thesis is organized in two parts: the former deals with interference management. We have proposed a novel technique for the enhancement of the sensitivity level of an advanced interference detection and localization system operating in the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) bands, which allows the identification of interfering signals received with power even lower than the GNSS signals. Moreover, we have introduced an effective cancellation technique for signals transmitted by jammers, exploiting their repetitive characteristics, which strongly reduces the interference level at the receiver. The second part, deals with code synchronization. More in detail, we have designed the code synchronization circuit for a Telemetry, Tracking and Control system operating during the Launch and Early Orbit Phase; the proposed solution allows to cope with the very large frequency uncertainty and dynamics characterizing this scenario, and performs the estimation of the code epoch, of the carrier frequency and of the carrier frequency variation rate. Furthermore, considering a generic pair of circuits performing code acquisition, we have proposed a comprehensive framework for the design and the analysis of the optimal cooperation procedure, which minimizes the time required to accomplish synchronization. The study results particularly interesting since it enables the reduction of the code acquisition time without increasing the computational complexity. Finally, considering a network of collaborating navigation receivers, we have proposed an innovative cooperative code acquisition scheme, which allows exploit the shared code epoch information between neighbor nodes, according to the Peer-to-Peer paradigm.

Geophysical Analysis of Seasonal Montandon Gravel Ridge Water Table Fluctuation and Moisture Gradient Variation due to Storm Events

The purpose of this research project is to continue exploring the Montandon Long-Term Hydrologic Research Site(LTHR) by using multiple geophysical methods to obtain more accurate and precise information regarding subsurface hydrologic properties of a local gravel ridge,which are important to both the health of surrounding ecosystems and local agriculture. Through using non-invasive geophysical methods such as seismic refraction, Direct Current resistivity and ground penetrating radar (GPR) instead of invasive methods such as boreholedrilling which displace sediment and may alter water flow, data collection is less likely to bias the data itself. In addition to imaging the gravel ridge subsurface, another important researchpurpose is to observe how both water table elevation and the moisture gradient (moisture content of the unsaturated zone) change over a seasonal time period and directly after storm events. The combination of three types of data collection allows the strengths of each method combine together and provide a relatively strongly supported conclusions compared to previous research. Precipitation and geophysical data suggest that an overall increase in precipitation during the summer months causes a sharp decrease in subsurface resistivity within the unsaturated zone. GPR velocity data indicate significant immediate increase in moisture content within the shallow vadose zone (< 1m), suggesting that rain water was infiltrating into the shallow subsurface. Furthermore, the combination of resistivity and GPR results suggest that the decreased resistivity within the shallow layers is due to increased ion content within groundwater. This is unexpected as rainwater is assumed to have a DC resistivity value of 3.33*105 ohm-m. These results may suggest that ions within the sediment must beincorporated into the infiltrating water.

The Importance of Scale for Spatial-confounding Bias and Precision of Spatial Regression Estimators

Increasingly, regression models are used when residuals are spatially correlated. Prominent examples include studies in environmental epidemiology to understand the chronic health effects of pollutants. I consider the effects of residual spatial structure on the bias and precision of regression coefficients, developing a simple framework in which to understand the key issues and derive informative analytic results. When the spatial residual is induced by an unmeasured confounder, regression models with spatial random effects and closely-related models such as kriging and penalized splines are biased, even when the residual variance components are known. Analytic and simulation results show how the bias depends on the spatial scales of the covariate and the residual; bias is reduced only when there is variation in the covariate at a scale smaller than the scale of the unmeasured confounding. I also discuss how the scales of the residual and the covariate affect efficiency and uncertainty estimation when the residuals can be considered independent of the covariate. In an application on the association between black carbon particulate matter air pollution and birth weight, controlling for large-scale spatial variation appears to reduce bias from unmeasured confounders, while increasing uncertainty in the estimated pollution effect.

Multivariable adjustments counteract spectrum and test review bias in accuracy studies

OBJECTIVES: The STAndards for Reporting studies of Diagnostic accuracy (STARD) for investigators and editors and the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies (QUADAS) for reviewers and readers offer guidelines for the quality and reporting of test accuracy studies. These guidelines address and propose some solutions to two major threats to validity: spectrum bias and test review bias. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: Using a clinical example, we demonstrate that these solutions fail and propose an alternative solution that concomitantly addresses both sources of bias. We also derive formulas that prove the generality of our arguments. RESULTS: A logical extension of our ideas is to extend STARD item 23 by adding a requirement for multivariable statistical adjustment using information collected in QUADAS items 1, 2, and 12 and STARD items 3-5, 11, 15, and 18. CONCLUSION: We recommend reporting not only variation of diagnostic accuracy across subgroups (STARD item 23) but also the effects of the multivariable adjustments on test performance. We also suggest that the QUADAS be supplemented by an item addressing the appropriateness of statistical methods, in particular whether multivariable adjustments have been included in the analysis.

Automatic algorithm for monitoring systolic pressure variation and difference in pulse pressure

BACKGROUND: Difference in pulse pressure (dPP) reliably predicts fluid responsiveness in patients. We have developed a respiratory variation (RV) monitoring device (RV monitor), which continuously records both airway pressure and arterial blood pressure (ABP). We compared the RV monitor measurements with manual dPP measurements. METHODS: ABP and airway pressure (PAW) from 24 patients were recorded. Data were fed to the RV monitor to calculate dPP and systolic pressure variation in two different ways: (a) considering both ABP and PAW (RV algorithm) and (b) ABP only (RV(slim) algorithm). Additionally, ABP and PAW were recorded intraoperatively in 10-min intervals for later calculation of dPP by manual assessment. Interobserver variability was determined. Manual dPP assessments were used for comparison with automated measurements. To estimate the importance of the PAW signal, RV(slim) measurements were compared with RV measurements. RESULTS: For the 24 patients, 174 measurements (6-10 per patient) were recorded. Six observers assessed dPP manually in the first 8 patients (10-min interval, 53 measurements); no interobserver variability occurred using a computer-assisted method. Bland-Altman analysis showed acceptable bias and limits of agreement of the 2 automated methods compared with the manual method (RV: -0.33% +/- 8.72% and RV(slim): -1.74% +/- 7.97%). The difference between RV measurements and RV(slim) measurements is small (bias -1.05%, limits of agreement 5.67%). CONCLUSIONS: Measurements of the automated device are comparable with measurements obtained by human observers, who use a computer-assisted method. The importance of the PAW signal is questionable.

The construal of constructions: causal and temporal interpretations in change constructions

In this paper I first discuss some non-causal change constructions which have largely gone unnoticed in the literature, such as The butler bowed the guests in (which is said to code mild causation) and The supporters booed Newcastle off at the interval (which only codes temporal coextension between its two constitutive subevents). Since the same structure (i.e. the transitive object-oriented change construction) can be used to code a wide spectrum of causal and temporal relations, the question arises of what cognitive mechanisms may be involved in such meaning shifts. I argue that variation can be motivated on the basis of the figure/ground segregation which the conceptualiser can impose upon the integrated scene coded by the change construction. The integrated scene depicts a force-dynamic scenario but also evokes a unique temporal setting (i.e. temporal overlap or coextension between the constitutive subevents). Such a “bias” towards temporal overlap can be used by the conceptualiser to background causation and highlight temporal overlap interpretations. It is also shown that figure/ground segregation can be appealed to to account for the causal interpretation of intransitive change constructions, e.g. The kettle boiled dry. If the conceptual distance between the verbal event and the non-verbal event is (relatively) great, causality can be highlighted even in intransitive patterns.

A test of genetic association among male nuptial coloration, female mating preference, and male aggression bias within a polymorphic population of cichlid fish

Both inter- and intrasexual selection have been implicated in the origin and maintenance of species-rich taxa with diverse sexual traits. Simultaneous disruptive selection by female mate choice and male-male competition can, in theory, lead to speciation without geographical isolation if both act on the same male trait. Female mate choice can generate discontinuities in gene flow, while male-male competition can generate negative frequency-dependent selection stabilizing the male trait polymorphism. Speciation may be facilitated when mating preference and/or aggression bias are physically linked to the trait they operate on. We tested for genetic associations among female mating preference, male aggression bias and male coloration in the Lake Victoria cichlid Pundamilia. We crossed females from a phenotypically variable population with males from both extreme ends of the phenotype distribution in the same population (blue or red). Male offspring of a red sire were significantly redder than males of a blue sire, indicating that intra-population variation in male coloration is heritable. We tested mating preferences of female offspring and aggression biases of male offspring using binary choice tests. There was no evidence for associations at the family level between female mating preferences and coloration of sires, but dam identity had a significant effect on female mate preference. Sons of the red sire directed significantly more aggression to red than blue males, whereas sons of the blue sire did not show any bias. There was a positive correlation among individuals between male aggression bias and body coloration, possibly due to pleiotropy or physical linkage, which could facilitate the maintenance of color polymorphism.

Effects of study precision and risk of bias in networks of interventions: a network meta-epidemiological study

BACKGROUND Empirical research has illustrated an association between study size and relative treatment effects, but conclusions have been inconsistent about the association of study size with the risk of bias items. Small studies give generally imprecisely estimated treatment effects, and study variance can serve as a surrogate for study size. METHODS We conducted a network meta-epidemiological study analyzing 32 networks including 613 randomized controlled trials, and used Bayesian network meta-analysis and meta-regression models to evaluate the impact of trial characteristics and study variance on the results of network meta-analysis. We examined changes in relative effects and between-studies variation in network meta-regression models as a function of the variance of the observed effect size and indicators for the adequacy of each risk of bias item. Adjustment was performed both within and across networks, allowing for between-networks variability. RESULTS Imprecise studies with large variances tended to exaggerate the effects of the active or new intervention in the majority of networks, with a ratio of odds ratios of 1.83 (95% CI: 1.09,3.32). Inappropriate or unclear conduct of random sequence generation and allocation concealment, as well as lack of blinding of patients and outcome assessors, did not materially impact on the summary results. Imprecise studies also appeared to be more prone to inadequate conduct. CONCLUSIONS Compared to more precise studies, studies with large variance may give substantially different answers that alter the results of network meta-analyses for dichotomous outcomes.

8p23 beta-defensin copy number determination by single-locus pseudogene-based paralog ratio tests risk bias due to low-frequency sequence variations.

BACKGROUND The copy number variation (CNV) in beta-defensin genes (DEFB) on human chromosome 8p23 has been proposed to contribute to the phenotypic differences in inflammatory diseases. However, determination of exact DEFB CN is a major challenge in association studies. Quantitative real-time PCR (qPCR), paralog ratio tests (PRT) and multiplex ligation-dependent probe amplification (MLPA) have been extensively used to determine DEFB CN in different laboratories, but inter-method inconsistencies were observed frequently. In this study we asked which one is superior among the three methods for DEFB CN determination. RESULTS We developed a clustering approach for MLPA and PRT to statistically correlate data from a single experiment. Then we compared qPCR, a newly designed PRT and MLPA for DEFB CN determination in 285 DNA samples. We found MLPA had the best convergence and clustering results of the raw data and the highest call rate. In addition, the concordance rates between MLPA or PRT and qPCR (32.12% and 37.99%, respectively) were unacceptably low with underestimated CN by qPCR. Concordance rate between MLPA and PRT (90.52%) was high but PRT systematically underestimated CN by one in a subset of samples. In these samples a sequence variant which caused complete PCR dropout of the respective DEFB cluster copies was found in one primer binding site of one of the targeted paralogous pseudogenes. CONCLUSION MLPA is superior to PRT and even more to qPCR for DEFB CN determination. Although the applied PRT provides in most cases reliable results, such a test is particularly sensitive to low-frequency sequence variations preferably accumulating in loci like pseudogenes which are most likely not under selective pressure. In the light of the superior performance of multiplex assays, the drawbacks of such single PRTs could be overcome by combining more test markers.

Controlling for culture-specific response bias using ipsatization and response style indicators: Family orientation in seventeen cultures and two generations

Within-subject standardization (ipsatization) has been advocated as a possible means to control for culture-specific responding (e.g., Fisher, 2004). However, the consequences of different kinds of ipsatization procedures for the interpretation of mean differences remain unclear. The current study compared several ipsatization procedures with ANCOVA-style procedures using response style indicators for the construct of family orientation with data from 14 cultures and two generations from the Value-of-Children-(VOC)-Study (4135 dyads). Results showed that within-subject centering/standardizing across all Likert-scale items of the comprehensive VOC-questionnaire removed most of the original cross-cultural variation in family orientation and lead to a non-interpretable pattern of means in both generations. Within-subject centering/standardizing using a subset of 19 unrelated items lead to a decrease to about half of the original effect size and produced a theoretically meaningful pattern of means. A similar effect size and similar mean differences were obtained when using a measure of acquiescent responding based on the same set of items in an ANCOVA-style analysis. Additional models controlling for extremity and modesty performed worse, and combinations did not differ from the acquiescence-only model. The usefulness of different approaches to control for uniform response styles (scalar equivalence not given) in cross- cultural comparisons is discussed.